Anthony Joshua vs Joseph Parker: Previewing The Big Fight

It’s so close now you can almost smell it. The squeak of the canvas, the thump of the gloves as they pound against flesh and bone. The roar of the crowd. Anthony Joshua against Joseph Parker at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff in front of 80,000 people and millions more watching on television. Bloody fire it up, mate! Get excited! How good’s it gonna be!?

There seems to be a pervading sense that Anthony Joshua’s got this one on lock but I dunno about that. Perhaps it’s the kiwi bias bleeding through but this fight isn’t like any other fight that either bloke has ever fought before. Joshua’s got the more impressive record. He’s got a much bigger fan-base and a far more eye-catching highlight reel. But the thing about boxing is that none of that matters once you step into the ring. It’s a sport so full of questions but the answers can only be gained in those 12 rounds, bell to bell. Joseph Parker’s the underdog, yet he’s got the tools to make this thing very, very interesting.

20 fights, all wins by way of knockout. That’s what Anthony Joshua’s taking into this. One of the most brutal hitters in the division and up until now that’s all he’s needed. Joseph Parker’s power has shrunk as he’s worked his way up the heavyweights although that doesn’t really matter. Parker’s strength is not his strength, his strength is his world-class hand speed. His footwork is every bit as good as Joshua’s and he’s got proven endurance, with four fights that went 12 full rounds, all victories. Not all glamourous victories but he doesn’t need to be glamourous to beat Joshua. It’ll help if he ain’t.

Parker’s team made a big deal about Joshua’s glass chin. That’s a wind-up. Joshua has been roughed up a few times but he’s always recovered to win anyway. Parker’s probably not gonna hurt AJ like that. Not impossible that he could knock him out… but if it happens it’ll come from a sustained assault, rather than that one destructive blow like Joshua and Deontay Wilder are capable of. More likely Parker’s planning on absorbing the hurt and taking this bugger on points over a dozen. Because Parker’s never been hurt. He’s never fought anyone close to as dangerous as Joshua so whether or not that defence is sustainable at this level is a question mark… but if he’d copped it against Fury or Ruiz then he’d have no chance against Joshua. He didn’t, so here we go.

It’s been mentioned how Anthony Joshua has had a couple of these massive fights already, having experience of doing his thing before 80,000 people. Joseph Parker doesn’t have that. In fact most of his big efforts have come in front of modest hometown crowds in Aotearoa, although he did get a taste of being behind enemy lines when he battled Hughie Fury in Manchester. Perhaps the occasion will get the best of him… perhaps not. I’m gonna wager that Parker won’t be overwhelmed by that and this’ll be less of a factor in this fight than Joshua’s lack of late round experience will be.

Four of Parker’s last six fights have gone the distance. Joshua, with his perfect KO record, has never been to the twelfth. He took care of Wlad Klitschko in the 11th and Carlos Takam in the 10th so he’s been late and done the business… but if he doesn’t get that KO then is he capable of out-boxing Parker and winning this on the cards? Parker’s fought 123 rounds in 24 unbeaten fights. Joshua’s only gone 65 in 20 fights.

One thing to keep an eye on is the weigh-in. Not because of the drama that sometimes clouds those events but because of the literal weigh-in. See, both these dudes have been fighting heavy lately. Parker fought Andy Ruiz, Razvan Cojanu and Hughie Fury all at weights above 111kg, peaking at 111.9kg vs Ruiz and working his way down. He got laughed at in the British media (and not just the sports media) for his body frame but Anthony Joshua also came in at a career-high 115.2kg when he took on Carlos Takam in his last bout.

AJ’s five centimetres taller than Parker so the differences in weight don’t really compare except to themselves… nonetheless you can guarantee that both of them are gonna come in much lighter this time out. Joshua’s talking up how it doesn’t matter what he weighs yet he’s also being doing some serious cardio in training and that could go a couple ways. Parker isn’t a bloke who’ll stand there and let AJ hit him, so having more bounce in those feet will help as he’s moved around the ring. He’s also not fighting a guy who’s likely to get dropped in the early rounds so endurance could be crucial. But whether this affects his power or balance can only be known once he steps in the ring.

Meanwhile Joe Parker’s looking at a target of 108kgs. He hasn’t been that light since he dropped Solomon Haumono or, more importantly, when he beat Carlos Takam in probably his best performance as a pro so far. He was 106.4kg in each of those. It’s fair to say that Parker hasn’t been at his peak the last couple bouts but we’re talking 3kgs dropped since then. He put on weight and it didn’t bring him knockout power. It might have even made him sluggish. Kevin Barry reckons he knows the right balance now. We’ll see how that goes.

Joshua’s got the height and reach. If he wants to then he can control this fight by setting the distance and working Parker over. Except that’s not really how he does this, he’s a guy who’s pretty aware of the crowd. He wants to give them knockouts. That aggression is massively noble but it’s gotten him into trouble in the past and Parker is a clever fighter who knows what he’s good at. He looked scratchy his last two bouts against Cojanu and Fury. Easy wins, sure, but scratchy ones. The difference here is that he won’t have to be the one forcing the issue in Cardiff like he had to there against a pair of tentative opponents. Joshua’s gonna come at him and therefore Parker will be able to stand back and react to what AJ gives him. Pop a counter or two, make him work. Maybe drop a  couple early rounds as he lets the guy punch himself out.

Best way to judge how that’s going is to keep an eye on Anthony’s left hand and see how he uses that jab. He got criticised for getting away from it against Takam and it’ll be much more important in this bout.

This is why Parker can’t be discounted. On the surface, Joshua has way more tools in the tool-belt and you couple that with the home crowd and his big fight experience and that’s why he’s such a huge favourite. Yet the things that Parker has in his advantage, fewer that they may be, are arguably more relevant to the style of this fight. Styles make fights, as they say. And Parker’s speed and mobility, his durability… they might just be crucial here against old mate Anthony Joshua.  

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