Last Week: 10-5

Indianapolis Colts (3-2) at Houston Texans (3-2)

First up, let’s address something stupid: The amount of choke jobs that we had to deal with last week. A good comeback is lovely to see, but I had every one of the early games correct at half time and of those nine, four ended up as losses. Craziness abounds in the National Football League. Who jumped on that Cleveland bandwagon when they were 25 points down away from home? No you didn’t, you liar. Just goes to show that in this sport, you don’t get up and have breakfast with a smile on your face. Best to wait until things seem dark and return to a pleasant surprise. Or, if you’re the Kiwi NFL Fan equivalent of Brett Favre, risk that deep pass and drag the cereal bowl into the lounge and camp in front of the telly. You may have to clean your cornflakes and milk up from the carpet after a short fit of rage but at least you won’t miss anything.

As for this game, as improved as Houston seems this year, they’re missing one key factor: a confident quarterback. It’s not his confidence that matters either - it’s the confidence in him from those around him. I like Ryan Fitzpatrick but he’s not leading this team to a playoff win. Nice stopgap for now though. I’m expecting something close to an even finish for the Texans and that’ll get them a draft pick in the teens, which is easily enough for a great QB these days. The best guy so far from this year’s pool has been Derek Carr (the only good thing on the Raiders so far) and he went 36th. Plus Bridgewater at 32nd looks handy. 2013 was a mess all around, but in 2012 we have Russell Wilson at 75, Nick Foles at 88 and Kirk Cousins at 102. Andy Dalton went 35th in 2011, Colin Kaepernick at 36. The talent is there.

This might be a rare TNF game worth watching. I’m adhering with one of my steadfast rules: Always take Andrew Luck in a close game.

Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 5

New England Patriots (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)

Do we dare say the Patriots are back? After one very impressive win? The NFL is full of knee-jerk reactions, that’s why picking it is so hard. The cliché says that you’re only as good as you’re last game but look at the bigger picture, the trends and the tendencies, and you get a better indication. The Patriots still have serious problems with receiver depth, their offensive line and basically all over the defence (but especially the run D). What they reminded us of this week was that they also have a genius of a coach and a Hall of Fame quarterback. That combination alone is enough for at least 9 wins a season.

The Bills. Now here is a team with no healthy right to be where they are. They upset the Bears week 1, beat up the Dolphins, then lost to the Charger and Texans (no shame there), before beating the Lions by 3, who left 9 points on the field with makeable field goal misses. They might be the second best team in this division but that shouldn’t get them into the playoffs. They keep games close, though, and have won with both EJ Manuel and Kyle Orton. That’s nothing to be scoffed at.

But I just can’t accept a world in which Kyle Orton can beat Tom Brady.

Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 6

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4)

Hey Tampa Bay!

Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 13

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)

It’s been a well-kept secret that Cleveland, despite their hilarious quarterback crisis, actually has a quality team hidden in there somewhere. People are gonna keep laughing at them and their mess, and they’re gonna keep upsetting teams that they’re covertly every bit as good as.

Eh, but probably not this week.

Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 8

Carolina Panthers (3-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

Keeping up with last week’s theme:

And here’s my actual relevant thinking:

• The Bengals are a great home team, 11 regular season wins in a row at Paul Brown Stadium
• AJ Green’s re-aggravated his toe, could be a bad loss for Cincy if those are legit reports
• Even after the pasting in New England, the Bengals are still second in fewest points conceded
• Neither of these teams has been scoring a whole lot
• A couple 2011 draft class QBs still out to prove themselves
• Defensive cover is on the way for the Bengals, Vontaze Burfict is back. That’ll shore up the run defence some
• The Panthers specialised in grounding out tight wins last season, the Bengals tend to win those they’re expected to
• I still think the Bengals are right up there, Belichick’s Pats have done worse to better teams
• Also, that was the fourth time in a row that Cincinnati has lost in a nationally televised game, they’ll be relieved to return home where the spotlight doesn’t shine so bright
• Cam Newton has just 42 yards rushing so far, he’s definitely hurting
• The Panthers upcoming sched: Bengals (A), Packers (A), Seahawks, Saints, Eagles (A) – this is gonna be brutal

Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by 6

Chicago Bears (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)

Matt Ryan's Home/Away Splits (click to zoom):

Tells you about all you need to know, really. Matt Ryan completing at 77% at home, 60% away. 5/0 TD/INT vs 5/6. A Passer rating almost doubled.

Meanwhile my love/hate relationship with Jay Cutler is definitely on the backwards arc right now. Goddamn fool. There’s a lot to like about this Chicago team, just not enough to plaster over the cracks. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey are like a band-aid on a broken leg as long as their team keeps giving up turnovers. In fact, having such enticing targets maybe encourages them to throw the ball into risky areas more often. Maybe their presence is actually making things worse!

Atlanta are a team that can definitely be put to the torch by a good passing offence. But I’m not gonna bank on it.

Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 7

Denver Broncos (3-1) at New York Jets (1-4)

Peyton Manning is 5 passing TDs short of tying the NFL record. Against these Jets, he could do it this week. If you ever wondered about the vast scale of quarterback capabilities on show in the National Football League, this is your exhibition. The very best and very worst of QB productivity on display here.

Wildcard’s Pick: Broncos by a cricket score (not that they’ll know what that is)

Green Bay Packers (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-2)

Quietly, secretly, the Green Bay Packers are asserting themselves as a real force this season. There’s no more subtle way of creeping up on fans than by blowing out a team on Thursday Night Football. Nobody bothers with that crap anyway.

Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 13

Detroit Lions (3-2) at Minnesota Vikings (2-3)

Calvin Johnson has a high ankle sprain.

Yeah I know, but it’s not as bad as it seems. The Lions will face Teddy Bridgewater this week, which immediately improves the Vikes’ chances. But these are still the Vikings. Matt Stafford has some work to do to win back the neutrals after some rough games, especially without his star man to throw to. Still, with Matt Prater now a Lion, fresh from a four match ban and an axing from Denver, they’ve at least covered their other major flaw – field goals. 8 missed attempts already (from 12 attempts) is so far beyond acceptable that it’s funny. Prater’s arguably the best kicker in the league, and the record holder for longest FG (64 big ones). That should at least get the Lions over the line a little more in the close ones.

Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 6

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at Tennessee Titans (1-4)

Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 6

San Diego Chargers (4-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-4)

Ok, I’m taking bets. I’ll give you evens on the Oakland Raiders win total of over 1.5. Anyone? Yes, you sir… sorry I mistook the sounds of chirping crickets for a taker. Can’t blame y’all, the Raiders are soooo bad.

Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by, ooh, let’s say 24

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

Seattle at home. It pains me to say this, but it’s very hard to see the Cowboys winning in Grunge-ville. I do see a possibility that the Cowboys throw the ball early, far and often and that riles up the ‘Hawks a little. Maybe enough to pile on some points. Not guaranteed that’ll be enough with even a much improved Dallas D up against Marshawn Lynch. He’s a bully. Also, this will be DeMarco Murray’s biggest test of all as to his standings.

Players with 100+ yard rushing games in Seattle since the start of 2012:

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Colin Kaepernick (Playoffs)
3. Mike James (No, seriously)
4. Zach Stacy (!?)

… and Seattle won all four of those games anyway.

Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 10

Washington Pro Football Team (1-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-1)

The Cardinals ought to bounce back here without too many troubles. Kirk Cousins isn’t doing very much good these days, to the point where he’s starting to flirt with Matt Flynn status. Looked great in limited opportunities as a backup, not so much as a starter. Now, I don’t believe that. I think Cousins can still be a very above average QB. Maybe just not with Washington?

Tell ya what, doubt Drew Stanton’s any better and he’s doing fine with Arizona. Carson Palmer should be back for this one though, and that’ll do it.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 7

New York Giants (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-1)

How did it come to this? The NFC East, supposed to be the worst in football, with three sides over .500 and just the WPFT lingering at the bottom. And let’s not forget that their franchise QB got hurt. The Cowboys’ long term strategy of finding a way to protect Tony Romo has paid off for the running game too and a few tinkerings with the coaching structure haven’t done any harm either. The Eagles were always expected to be decent, though it was their offence that got the plaudits and that’s the area in which they are struggling. Defence and special teams are carrying them, and carrying them well. Darren Sproles = workhorse with talent. And as for the Giants? Well, they sucked until they didn’t. I actually think they’ll catch the Eagles unawares here.

Wildcard’s Pick: Giants by 6

San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at St Louis Rams (1-3)

The Rams have a little fight in them. A bit of spirit. Some gumption. A can-full of spinach and a couple anchor tattoos on the biceps. What they don’t have is a whole lot of talent.

Wildcard’s Pick: 49ers by 16

BYE: New Orleans Saints (2-3), Kansas City Chiefs (2-3)

The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. He is a nationally ranked Cane Toad Racing trainer (it’s a real sport, google it) and he has one of the world’s most impressive Faberge Egg collections. His book ‘Concussion in Sports: Huh, What?’ is due to be released next month.