Two games to go. Two more chances. It’s what players play for, coaches coach for and fans, um, fan (?) for… the chance to compete for a championship. But in a league as brutal and competitive as the NFL, the road to the playoffs is often like thin ice. One false step and you plunge into the offseason with the rest of the mugs from the Jaguars and the Raiders and the Titans and Washington Professional Football Team.

Here’s what your team has to do to avoid that ignoble fate. To survive and advance.

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys

Indianapolis Colts (H); Washington PFT (A)

Is that Jerry Jones smiling?

[shivers]

Yep. Must be because the Cowboys are in first place. They got there by beating the Eagles last week but with a head to head split, should the Eagles win out they’d have the better divisional record, meaning the ‘Boys need to match Philly’s record over the last 2 weeks to advance. So if Philly loses and Dallas wins this week, that’s it sorted. If the opposite happens, the Cowboys will need to reverse that in week 17. That leaves plenty of room still for a patented late season collapse but it’s all in their hands. And the broken hand of DeMarco Murray.

Don’t rule out a wildcard spot for Dallas either. They have the head to head tiebreaker over Seattle so should both Green Bay and Detroit lose this week and Dallas beat the Colts then it’s a sure thing with a week to play. If one of them loses twice then Dallas are in that way a win and a loss.

Philadelphia Eagles

Washington PFT (A); New York Giants (A)

The Eagles need a little luck. There’s a good chance that they win out, considering their opponents have a combined 8 wins, but even then they need Dallas to drop a game. That could well happen though. The Cowboys play the Colts and Washington (who they lost to at Cowboys Stadium earlier in the season). There’s also a chance that Philly slide into a wildcard spot, albeit a slim one. The same situation as applies to Dallas – except that Philly would need to still win out in all likelihood. They’re a game behind both Detroit, Seattle and Green Bay – though in their favour is that Detroit plays at Green Bay in week 17 and Seattle at Arizona week 16. Someone’s dropping a game in each of those. With Arizona already securing a spot, Philly will be cheering for the Cardinals and Colts this week.

Eliminated: New York Giants & Washington PFT

NFC North

Detroit Lions

Chicago Bears (A); Green Bay Packers (A)

As it stands, Detroit beat Green Bay in week 3 so they have the ‘breaker. That could change if they lose to them in the final game of their season. Both have 4 wins in division games so beating the Bears is pretty important for the Lions. They do that and they make the playoffs on account of having the edge on Philadelphia. If Philly loses then Detroit get at least a wildcard even if they themselves lose, and they’d still have a shot at the division if they can beat the Packers. Lose to the Packers and it depends on what happens this week. If both Dallas and Green Bay lose, and Detroit wins, then the Lions clinch a first round bye with a game to play.

It’s pretty likely that they and whoever finishes second in the NFC West get the wildcards but that could all change if Dallas drop a game. Philly lost to Green Bay, Seattle and Arizona while Dallas happened to beat the Seahawks (and lose to Arizona) so tiebreakers get a little more intricate. Detroit loses TBs to the two NFC West teams but edge the two NFC East teams should. So unless the Eagles (9 wins) and Cowboys (10 wins) both end with superior records to the Lions, the Lions are going to the playoffs...

… Where they haven’t won a game since 1991.

Green Bay Packers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (A); Detroit Lions (H)

The Packers can still get the first seed if they win both games. They can also still miss the playoffs altogether. As far as the first seed goes, 10 win Green Bay need 11 win Arizona to lose to 10 win Seattle, then Seattle to lose to St Louis and themselves to win out. Arizona would edge GB for first seed with equal records – whatever happens though, if Green Bay win both of their last 2 games then they get a first round bye. The same goes for Detroit.

Despite the loss to the Buffalo Bills last week, the Packers still have a 93% chance of making the playoffs. They’ve beaten the Eagles, have a better record in common games than the Cowboys and can level out with the Lions in the last game. Because of having already lost to the Lions, they can’t clinch anything this week but if they win against the Buccs (preeeetty likely), then the chances of them missing the playoffs are basically nil.

Eliminated: Minnesota Vikings & Chicago Bears

NFC South

New Orleans Saints

Atlanta Falcons (H); Tampa Bay Buccaneers (A)

Ah, the worst division in football. Yet one of these sorry, inconsistent teams is going to the playoffs ahead of a 9 or 10 win team because of the structure of the league. Funny.

After slamming the Bears on MNF, the Saints have it all in their hands. They’ve had chances all season to pull away and have failed. Two steps back for every one forward – but it’s been the same for the Falcons too. The Panthers are only in contention because of the missed opportunities of those fellas.

Beat the Falcons and the Falcons are out. From there the Saints need either to win next week too or have Carolina lose either one of their last two games. If New Orleans lose to Atlanta then they can still make it as long as Cleveland beats Carolina this week – the Saints would absolutely have to win their last game though, and they’d need Atlanta to beat Carolina in week 17.

There are no wildcard situations in this division, to put it softly.

Carolina Panthers

Cleveland Browns (H); Atlanta Falcons (A)

If New Orleans win out, the Panthers are gone. So first of all they need a Saints loss somewhere. If they get one, then two wins puts them through. If they get two Saints losses, then this week doesn’t matter – the Panthers just need to beat Atlanta in week 17. Actually, they have to win that game regardless because even with a Falcons loss to the Saints and a Panthers win this week, losing to the Falcons surrenders all Panther hope. Though a tie would work in their favour so long as they get that Browns win.

Atlanta Falcons

New Orleans Saints (A); Carolina Panthers (H)

First of all, the Falcons absolutely have to go to New Orleans and win. Otherwise all else is moot. Should they do that? Then they need to beat Carolina the following week. New Orleans and Carolina’s other result is irrelevant – the Falcons need to win out.

Eliminated: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

Seattle Seahawks (H); San Francisco 49ers (A)

A win against the ‘Hawks this week would not only guarantee the Cardinals the NFC West, but it’d give them the top seed with a week to spare. However the trick is that they have to do it with their third string quarterback (Ryan Lindley) against a resurgently good defence. That’ll be tough, even at home. But even if they lose both games the Cardinals are definitely going to the playoffs, which is lovely for a team that won 10 games last season and still didn’t make it.

Seattle Seahawks

Arizona Cardinals (A); St Louis Rams (H)

The defending champs and recently they’ve started playing like it. There’s a bit of a history of teams missing the playoffs the year after winning the championship – Baltimore did it last season – but don’t expect that from these Seahawks, although it was a possibility for a while there.

A win in Arizona against a third string QB and the ‘Hawks will control the division. With a win against the Rams to they could even be in with a great shot at the top seed. That’s the ceiling.

As for making the gig at all? The Seahawks may have dropped a few games but they’ve won most of the ones against rivals so their tiebreaker situation is strong. The Seahawks are going to the playoffs with a game in hand if they win and any one of the Eagles, Lions or Packers lose. Indeed if Philly loses and Dallas wins (meaning Dallas wins that division, and thus won’t compete for a wildcard vs Seattle) then Seattle are through no matter what they do. But just getting through probably isn’t enough for Pete Carroll’s lads. They’ll be targeting one of them new-fangled first round byes.

Eliminated: San Franciso 49ers & St Louis Rams

AFC East

New England Patriots

New York Jets (A); Buffalo Bills (H)

The Patriots are already in. The division is theirs even in the worst case scenario. This team is playing for home field advantage. Win both remaining games and it’s theirs. Win one and Denver lose one and it’s theirs. That’s all thanks to their massive week 9 win over the Broncos.

A win this week and they’ll finish no lower than second in the AFC (which means a first round bye and at least one home playoff game).

Buffalo Bills

Oakland Raiders (A); New England Patriots (A)

Even if the Bills win this week they can be eliminated. In fact, all 6 AFC playoff teams could be decided this week with only seedings to play for next week. That would at least save the Bills fans from the horror of needing to beat Tom Brady away in the final game (maybe they rest him?) to advance. Basically it’s all down to the three contending AFC North teams. If the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals all win this week then forget about it.

A single loss and the Bills are kaput. They lose tiebreakers to most teams around them so they need a lot of things to go their way. It’s possible, though. A couple Ravens losses, a win in Foxborough, and at least one loss from both the Chiefs and Chargers and then we’ll talk.

Miami Dolphins

Minnesota Vikings (H); New York Jets (H)

It’s not really worth discussing. Win both games and hope every living organism on the planet moves in their favour. If a miniscule earthworm should tunnel through the wrong lump of dirt then it’s all over for the Dolphins.

Eliminated: New York Jets

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers

Kansas City Chiefs (H); Cincinnati Bengals (H)

Win and you’re in. That’s the deal, Steelers fans. Just one more measly win. The problem with that is there are no easy games in this league and even if there were these two aren’t that. Both the Chiefs and Bengals are battling for the same thing. The key game for the Steelers is that Bengals one – win that and there’s a good chance that they come away with the division and a home wildcard game. Plus if the Colts lose to Dallas then suddenly the third seed looks like more than just a carrot on a stick.

Cincinnati Bengals

Denver Broncos (A); Pittsburgh Steelers (A)

The Bengals are half a game up on the Steelers thanks to that tied game they had boosting their win percentage. Except that they play the Broncos this week and so that could change in a hurry. Like the Steelers, they can get that third seed or they could drop out entirely. Actually, if the Patriots and Broncos both lose both of their remaining games, the Bengals can finish first! And maybe pigs will fly too!

If Pittsburgh lose and Cincinnati win this week, the Bengals take the division a week early. If they match each other’s results then the division comes down to next week’s head to head (unless the Ravens win out and they and the Steelers drop one each). Lose two and they probably drop out altogether.

Baltimore Ravens

Houston Rockets (A); Cleveland Browns (H)

Well, if both the Bengals and Steelers lose and the Ravens win this week, then Baltimore will at least get a wildcard spot. The same goes if the Ravens win and both the Chiefs and Chargers lose.

Having already lost 3 times in the division, it’ll be very hard to get through as winner. But they can do that if they win both remaining games and both the Steelers and Bengals lose one. They play each other so at least one of them will. Win both games and the Ravens will make the playoffs anyway.

Eliminated: Cleveland Browns

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

Dallas Cowboys (A); Tennessee Titans (A)

The Colts are another team already destined to extend their season. A win over the Texans last week gave them the division with a couple games in hand. It’s still possible to get a first round bye but in all plausible, believable, likelihood they’ll be preparing for a home game against a wildcard team.

Houston Rockets

Baltimore Ravens (H); Jacksonville Jaguars (H)

Yeah, keep dreaming. Though they can do a lot of people a favour by beating Baltimore. Considering the quarterbacks they have to work with, their best chance at the postseason is a trip in Doc’s DeLorean to try overturn losses to the Steelers, Bengals and Colts.

Hey, I still wouldn’t put it past J.J. Watt.

Eliminated: Tennessee Titans & Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC West

Denver Broncos

Cincinnati Bengals (A); Oakland Raiders (H)

The Broncos have had their eyes far beyond just making the playoffs for a long time. They want a Superbowl return. The best path to that is a top seed, though having lost to the Patriots that’ll take NE losing one and Denver winning out to happen. The latter’s controllable at least (though Cincy need that W).

It doesn’t really matter, a win in either of their last two games and they get a first round bye.

Kansas City Chiefs

Pittsburgh Steelers (A); San Diego Chargers (H)

Here’s the good news: Win out and the Chiefs make it.

Here’s the bad news: They have an ass-kickingly tough last pair of games.

Pittsburgh are playing to clinch a spot while San Diego absolutely have to win that game themselves (and rely on others, wait your turn Chargers fans!). There’s a small chance they get in losing one of those games but it’d take a balancing act of results that my poor brain can’t comprehend.

San Diego Chargers

San Francisco 49ers (A); Kansas City Chiefs (A)

Ok, now it’s your turn. You waited patiently for this, I feel bad for ya. The Chargers absolutely need to beat the Chiefs in the last game. And the 49ers this week. They also need either the Bengals or Steelers to lose twice and a Texans win over the Ravens would be nice. It’s a slim chance, but, y’know…

Eliminated: Oakland Raiders