June 17, 2010. Almost 20,000 wild fans are crammed into a heaving Staples Centre. This is it. The moment that we dream of as wide-eyed children shooting hoops in the backyard. To hit that winning jump shot, to make that crucial rebound… even just to be there to witness the majesty from the confines of the crowd. It’s the greatest occasion in all of basketball – Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

And this Game 7 has more on the line than ever before. The Lakers are playing the Celtics, the two most successful franchises in the history of the league. 32 Championships between them (soon to be 33). 12 previous NBA Finals meetings. It’s a who’s who of All Star talent taking the court: Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Pau Gasol, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Ron Artest, Ray Allen…

6 games have failed to separate them. The seventh will decide it all.

Now flash forward to the present moment. Those two teams, still far and away the most successful franchises in history, lie battered and helpless near the bottom of their respective conferences. Both teams have suffered near complete roster overhauls, even their iconic coaches have moved on. Both have endured serious injuries to their most valuable remaining player. Neither will make the playoffs this year. It’s an unthinkable fate. Only a few years ago the idea that neither the Celtics nor the Lakers (whose victory in that 2010 series sealed back to back to back titles) could so quickly become so irrelevant in the title race would have been laughed off. Yet here we are.

LA Lakers

Where are they now?

2013 Starting Lineup*: Kendall Marshall/Jodie Meeks/Wesley Johnson/Jordan Hill/Pau Gasol

*based on most minutes played at each position

It ain’t pretty. We’re looking at a potential lottery pick for the biggest brand in the NBA. Injuries have crippled them, and the absolute lack of depth is astounding. As Kobe Bryant said this week, Barack Obama could make this Lakers team. At one stage this year, Robert Sacre was allowed to stay in the game after fouling out because the Lakers literally had no player left to replace him. Bryant and Steve Nash have barely played in 2013/14, and they won’t again this season. Coach Mike D’Antoni’s complete lack of defensive emphasis has many wondering if they won’t be in the market for a replacement next year. Bryant has been critically outspoken of D’Antoni, saying he’s got zero interest in playing for him next year, plus he’s also commented his unhappiness that the franchise made seemingly no attempt to bring Phil Jackson back (he’s now presiding over the Knicks), even though Lakers President Jeanie Buss is engaged to the Zen Master.

With salary cap space not being exactly flexible (yet…), the Lakers have had to focus on cheap veterans (Kaman, Young) and unproven youths this season (Meeks, Henry, etc.), signing a bunch of them to one year contracts. As it stands, Kobe, Nash and Robert Sacre are the only players contracted for next year. Nick Young has a team friendly price on a player option, and there’s a team option on Kendall Marshall’s contract. Pau Gasol’s $19m deal is in its final year. Expect to see guys like Bazemore and Meeks stay, the rest are probably headed back into the swamps of free agency.

How did it get this bad?

One man – Dwight Howard. He pretty much ruined everything. Signing him and Steve Nash before last season was supposed to be the making of one final championship push for Kobe and company. Only the trio completely failed to gel. Most of that has to be because of the injuries that they all suffered at various times during the season, meaning that over 82 regular season games, they spent just a comparative handful of minutes all on the court together. Kobe and Dwight clearly didn’t like each other, and both wanted to be the caballo grande in a one horse town. Nash was cool to play third wheel, but he was injured the most of all. They sacked Mike Brown as coach just 5 games into last season. Plus the losses of Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom (despite the absolute disasters that their careers have been ever since) cost them a lot of rebounding presence – which Howard was meant to make up for. Instead they’re booted out of the playoffs with embarrassing ease, and unhappy Dwight opts out of his contract to hook up with Houston, completely dismantling the team’s plans and forcing them to work it out on the run (to be fair, things weren’t exactly working out). Kobe and Nash continue to nurse injuries all offseason, and neither has been a consistent presence this year, both now shut down for health reasons. Metta World Peace/Ron Artest has buggered off too, leaving Pau Gasol to carry this team alone most nights.

What does the future hold in its misty depths?

It’s well documented that the 2015 free agency class is the one to target, with names like Kevin Love and Russell Westbrook endlessly linked to the Lakers. That means waiting a whole other year before the Lakers can compete at the top again. Not ideal. They’ll have a decent draft pick, maybe even a lottery pick, so that’s a potential finals starter there.

Now, the left field option is if LeBron James opts out of the last year of his Miami contract. Should that be the case then you’ve got to think the Lakers drop all their plans and try get the best player in the world on board. He’s earning just short of $20m a year, but his next contract you can expect to add another ten mill to. That would mean 90% of their salary cap number being number being spent on he and Kobe, although not really, since Kobe’s contract will have cap exceptions, being a long-time Laker. It’s all confusing numbers and stats, but they’d struggle financially to fill a roster around those two, especially with Nash still around. And no-one’s really expecting LeBron to leave Miami – not this year anyway. Other enticing 2014 free agents are Carmelo Anthony (imagine him trying to co-exist with Kobe?), and then players of a less than elite tier such as Greg Monroe, Gordon Hayward, Eric Bledsoe, Luol Deng, Lance Stevenson, and a few other guys like that. Great starters, but not the superstar that’s gonna take over from Kobe. Likely we’ll see another push to sign one year contracts as salary filler. Placeholders for the money that will be needed for Love/Westbrook, should that opportunity eventuate. Love is almost certain to leave Minnesota, while Westbrook may drive a harder bargain at a competing Oklahoma City. Whether or not Pau Gasol re-signs is a big issue. He’s a star forward/centre who has proven championship calibre talent, though may prove expensive, and is already 34 years old. Gasol says he’s open to a pay cut to play on a better Lakers team, yet knows he has options in free agency. After about three years of acting as trade bait, this guy deserves a break.

Boston Celtics

Where are they now?

2013 Starting Lineup: Avery Bradley/Jordan Crawford/Jeff Green/Brandon Bass/Kelly Olynyk

The biggest advantage here is that Rajon Rondo is still a Celtic, despite numerous trade block rumours. Boston (and GM Danny Ainge) aren’t stupid, they have a plan, and Rondo was going nowhere unless they got value for him. He’s still under contract for another year, and seems to be healthy once more, so after they start cashing all of those draft picks in, they may well have the money available to offer a multi-year deal to Rondo. Unless they trade him next season. Doc Rivers was replaced as coach by young Brad Stevens, a highly rated college coach, and judging by his efforts with this lacklustre Celtics roster, a guy worth sticking with.

There is some high potential on the Celtics 2014 roster. Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger and Avery Bradley are all guys worth sticking with. Rondo’s re-signing may be up in the air depending on salary and his role, though there’ll be no shortage of opportunities to replace him with all of their draft picks. And at least fans here have accepted the plan, and players know the situation. There’s no Kobe Bryant speaking out against their decisions (on the other hand, there’s no Kobe Bryant on the court, either…). They can’t clear salary space so quick, but given their plans to use the draft to recruit, that’s not so big of a problem. They’re free of the Kris Humphries, Keith Bogans, Vitor Fareni and Jerryd Bayless contracts next year, getting them well under the salary cap with around $12m or so to spare. But unless they can trade them (unlikely) the Celtics are stuck with Gerald Wallace ($10.1m), Jeff Green ($9.2m) and Brandon Bass (&6.95m) for another year,  Wallace for two more years in fact.

How did it get this bad?

It started when they let Ray Allen go in free agency. He popped down to Miami and picked himself up another championship in his first year there. Then last season the chopping block really came out. With a team of aging stars, the Celtics decided to act now and ship ‘em all out to Brooklyn. No more Garnett, no more Pierce. Guys who had been expected to retire as Celtics. Also no more Jason Terry, who’s found himself making a living in more cities than the last Rolling Stones tour ever since his Mavericks contract ran out. The tipping point had been getting pumped by the Knicks in the playoffs, which sounds even worse with hindsight. In return for Garnett, Pierce and Terry, the Celtics agreed to take on the worst contract in basketball, Gerald Wallace, and a whole bucket of draft picks. The overhaul was complete when coach Doc Rivers was let loose to the LA Clippers for draft picks (what else?).

What does the future hold in its misty depths?

Lots and lots of rookie talent. They’re obviously not looking to free agency other than for cheap veterans, maybe. There are two ways to rebuild a team, one is by splashing the cash on free agents, as the Lakers are doing (and Miami have done, more successfully), the other is through the draft and that’s what we’re gonna see from the Green machine. So let’s look at the draft picks they have.

2014: They have whichever pick is worse out of Atlanta and Brooklyn, which’ll probably be around the late teens, early twenties, plus a top 14 protected Philly first rounder (which they’ll lose – no way Philadelphia make the playoffs), and their own valuable first rounder, which should fall between 4 and 10. No second rounders as yet, but expect some draft day transactions if they can help it.

2015: Another top 14 protected Philadelphia pick, so don’t hold your breath there, but the Celtics also have the value of both their own picks, the Clippers first rounder, and possible Sacramento second round (top 55 protected) and Philadelphia second (if the 76ers makes the lottery) round picks. Don’t forget that these picks all make great trade bait too.

2016: Boston & Brooklyn first rounders; Boston and Miami second rounders

2017: Boston first round (with the option to swap with Brooklyn); Boston and Sacramento (top 55 protected) seconds

2018: Boston & Brooklyn firsts; Boston second (You gotta think with an aging Nets team, they might just start to miss these lost draft picks…)

So that’s a lot of talent that they have access to. Not the lottery picks they need to get the superstar to build around, though maybe they’ll be rewarded with that luxury this year? There’s no exact science in play here, and both the Celtics and Lakers will be well aware of the downside of their plans. The Lakers should be back on track quicker, though as they’ve already proven, the free agent pathway is a dangerous road. The Celtics meanwhile are playing things safer and so with less of an upside, given they also have to develop the talent they end up with. But the wheels are in motion...

Two iconic teams, two disastrous seasons, two distinct strategies.

Who’ll be back in the NBA Finals first?