Beasts of the East

NBA fans living in NZ often cop a pretty raw deal when it comes to watching games. ESPN only shows a maximum of three games a week, and if you’re a fan of a team in a small market then you’re forced to forget all about watching games in glorious HD and instead have to resort to streaming grainy footage from dubious websites of questionable legality. Sometimes the games selected for ESPN make me question my sanity, however this past Thursday we got an absolute cracker when we were fortunate enough to be shown a likely preview of the Eastern conference finals with the Heat vs the Pacers. The game certainly raised a few questions about the championship aspirations of the two sides though, and this week I thought I would look at a few points coming out of the game that these heavyweights will need to rectify or emphasise if they want to be hoisting the trophy come Finals time.

Big Boy Roy

Roy Hibbert has to be one of the most frustrating players in the league at the moment. He’s the second tallest player in the league and one of the top 3 defensive players, so take a guess at how many defensive rebounds he’s got over the past 5 games. 40? 30? 20? Nope, only 8, for a whopping 1.6 per game – yes, you read that right – and they’ve also gone 1-4 over that stretch. This frustrating nature of Roy was in full effect against Miami, as he stormed out of the gate to absolutely demolish Greg Oden in the opening quarter but then basically vanished for the remaining 3 quarters. How someone 7’2 can do such a good job of acting invisible is beyond me, but if the Pacers want to beat the chronically undersized Heat then Hibbert is going to have to sack up and play the entire game with his first quarter attitude.

However, before anyone accuses me of having a short memory, yes I do remember how he played in the Eastern Conference finals against Miami last year, and I think he has it in him to do exactly the same this year if he gets fed the ball consistently. Furthermore, the fact he embarrassed Oden is particularly relevant as he was signed basically for the sole purpose of defending Roy in the playoffs, so this particular experiment does not appear to have paid off and the tandem of Chris Andersen and Udonis Haslem may have some long nights trying to stop Big Boy Roy. So which Roy Hibbert will show up come playoffs time? 20 and 10 Roy who eats former number 1 picks for dinner, or 1.6 defensive rebounds a game Roy whose sole contribution to the team is sticking his arms straight up on defense? The answer to that question could very well determine who advances to the Finals from the East.

Big 3 v the Indiana Five

The second thing that I realised about this game was that it was almost entirely determined by the starters, and that neither bench did anything of value unless you consider getting elbowed by LeBron valuable (for the record, the Heat bench outscored the Pacers bench 15-10). Although this is always going to be a problem when you have a stacked starting unit, both these teams tried to assemble a formidable bench – Indiana in particular – during the off-season/trade window. Looking at the Pacers bench you’d expect some quality minutes from guys like Luis Scola and Evan Turner, and the Heat brought on the #1 pick from 2007 and #2 pick from 2008 (Oden and Beasley), but it’s a colossal bust-fest as these benches routinely give an embarrassing lack of production. In fact, it’s even questionable whether it’s actually a Big 3 for the Heat when they face Indiana, as Bosh never turns up so it’s more of a Big 2.5, and when you then factor in the fact that Wade is playing with knees that could explode at any minute then it quickly turns into more “LeBron and friends” than “Big 3”.

The playoff format also places extra emphasis on a balanced approach as whilst it’s easy enough for someone like Paul George to pull out a big game on a one off basis, it becomes much more difficult to be effective once the defence has had a chance to size you up over the course of a few games in a row. Outside of perhaps LeBron and David West there’s no one on either of these two teams that you’d bet on having a consistently great series, so it could all come down to who happens to have a bench full of guys riding a hot streak at the time and who has to rely almost entirely on their starters.  Finally, yes I do realise that the game was missing two potential X factors in Andrew Bynum and Ray Allen, but frankly if your finals aspirations rest on someone with the worst knees in the league or a 38 year old jump-shooter then you have bigger issues to worry about.

X Factors

The play of PG24 was the difference on Thursday, and I believe any playoff series between these two could come down to who turns up the heat (no pun intended) at the right time and gets a transcendent series from someone. However, whilst both of these teams contain a number of guys who are wildly inconsistent – Scola and Hill for the Pacers and Lewis and Battier for the Heat, for example –even on their best days they’ll still only be role players, so these aren’t the potential X factors I am referring to. Instead I think the battle at the SG spot could be crucial – Lance v DWade – as whilst you’re always going to get at least a nice game from both of them, they are also both capable of completely taking over a game and potentially changing the entire feel of a series. Wade has been somewhat hampered by injuries over the past couple of seasons but can still turn back the clock to his 2006 self for limited stretches, which actually fits quite well with the Heat roster as he can provide the occasional flash of brilliance whilst LeBron does the heavy lifting night in and night out – but can he provide enough firepower for 7 gruelling games whilst battling his ailing knees? On the other side, Lance Stephenson can go from absolutely brilliant to infuriatingly stupid within the space of a single possession as evidenced by his ejection on Thursday after looking on track for a mammoth game, so it will be interesting to see if he can hold it together mentally in such a stressful situation if he can’t even manage it in a single regular season game. If I had to put money on who I think will actually provide more of an X factor then I’ll go with Lance as he is such a hot or cold player, but knowing my luck he’ll probably go and get ejected in the opening possession of the first game.

I realise that I could quickly look absolutely stupid with all this analysis and predictions if one of these two teams doesn’t actually make it to the Eastern Conference Finals. With the rise of teams like the Toronto Raptors and the Brooklyn Nets that is a far more realistic fear than it was a few months ago, but I’m still not convinced that anyone in the East can grind it out with these two teams over the course of an entire series, and to be honest I would be devastated if they did because the Pacers/Heat games are always incredible displays of basketball. So assuming that yes, it is Heat and Pacers in the ECF, I’ve outlined what I think will need to happen for both sides if they want to win after watching their most recent meeting on Thursday. Will Bynum be back and form an incredibly over-sized two headed monster with Big Boy Roy? Will Bosh finally show up for a game against Indiana? Will Oden even make the court? Will the Pacers have a complete passing meltdown like they’re liable to do? So many questions, so few answers. Mark it in your calendars because this is going to be one hell of a series, and personally I’m looking to it more than the Finals.