Revisiting The Wildcard’s Pre-Season NBA Picks
No applause necessary, guys. It really wasn't very good... (Jeff Haynes/Reuters)
The Documents in Question:
Predicted Wins/Actual Wins
Eastern Conference
Boston Celtics – 34/25
Brooklyn Nets – 51/48
New York Knicks – 55/37
Philadelphia 76ers – 13/19
Toronto Raptors – 36/48
Chicago Bulls – 49/48
Cleveland Cavaliers – 42/33
Detroit Pistons – 47/29
Indiana Pacers – 51/56
Milwaukee Bucks – 41/15
Atlanta Hawks – 36/38
Charlotte Bobcats – 30/43
Miami Heat – 64/54
Orlando Magic – 23/23
Washington Wizards – 43/44
Western Conference
Denver Nuggets – 43/36
Minnesota Timberwolves – 44/40
Oklahoma City Thunder – 55/59
Portland Trailblazers – 35/54
Utah Jazz – 25/25
Golden State Warriors – 51/51
Los Angeles Clippers – 49/57
Los Angeles Lakers – 37/27
Phoenix Suns – 17/48
Sacramento Kings – 33/28
Dallas Mavericks – 44/49
Houston Rockets – 48/54
Memphis Grizzlies – 46/50
New Orleans Pelicans – 37/34
San Antonio Spurs – 51/62
THE GOOD
One of the beauties of the NBA is how hard it is to pick each year beyond the elite few at the top. Even the apparent worst of them can get hot and surprise us all (Phoenix Suns…). There were three teams which I picked dead on: Utah and Orlando were clearly lottery teams waiting to happen so nothing revelatory there. Golden State could have done better, but the important thing is that they consolidated their last season with another playoff appearance and with an improved team this time around, and Steph Curry’s jump shot, they could cause the Clippers some issues.
New Orleans were about right, just short of the playoffs. The makings are there though. Anthony Davis is on the verge of a decade of All Star appearances and they should make big steps forward next year.
OKC missed Russell Westbrook for a lot of this season, though still outdid my 55 win call. That’s on the back of an MVP season from Kevin Durant. All power to that man.
Memphis, Dallas and Houston all made the playoffs with a few more wins than I’d predicted, but that was what it took in the West in 2014. All are worthy playoff teams.
Likewise Brooklyn and Chicago had a few less than anticipated, but again, that was how the East went this year. Each could have had more wins if necessary. Chicago looked like they were ready to phone it in when they traded Luol Deng, only for Joakim Noah to go Rambo Mode on the NBA. Brooklyn struggled immensely to begin but sorted it out by New Years with rookie coach Jason Kidd finding the right balance between all of his veterans and shooters.
I only slightly underestimated Washington and Atlanta also. Those two teams are money from three point range, and should be fun to see in the playoffs. Still, let’s be honest, a 38 win Atlanta team should not be playing post-season basketball.
Philly won a few more than I picked, but not enough to really matter. And only really thanks to their early season burst. The 26 losses in a row was a far better indicator of where these guys are.
Sacramento were close enough to where I’d guessed they’d be that I don’t feel bad about it. There’s plenty I did mess up though. Apologies in advance for having to read the rest of the shockers I’m responsible for.
A deep breath, and let’s rip this band aid off…
THE BAD
I thought the Spurs would regress. They didn’t – in fact they got even better! I’m never doubting Gregg Popovic again.
Miami I saw running away with the best record in the league. To be honest, they could have done so had they wanted it, but this team knows its priorities. Having played the equivalent of a full extra season in playoff games over the past three years, they just focussed on having their players all healthy for this coming stage.
Both the Lakers and Celtics were more dedicated to their tanking than I’d anticipated. My bad. It’s not like they were pulling those punches or anything. Though a season without Kobe, half a year without Rondo and not a whole lot of Nash affected those totals.
The hardest thing to anticipate was the complete disparity in talent between the West and East. The highly disappointing Kicks and Cavs were in the playoff hunt until the last week, while the 48 win Suns missed the playoffs entirely. That blew out win totals to each end of the spectrum in the different conferences.
Minnesota. You disappoint me so. In the end they weren’t actually that far off the playoffs, but it may as well have been a vast chasm. Kevin Love has never played in a team above .500. That’s disgraceful. If you’ve had a guy as good as him for that long and still haven’t put the pieces together around him then you don’t deserve to keep him. Trade him immediately, please. Get a sign and trade done for Pau Gasol or something. Then you’ve got some leadership. Add a quality small forward and a bench scorer or two and there’s a decent team.
Here is one sad, sad man. Kevin Love deserves so much better.
The Cavs should have been a lot better than they were, but hey, they’re the Cavs, it’s what they do. Denver were disappointing also. If I’d known Dan Gallinari wouldn’t play this season I’d have knocked 10 wins off. By that measurement, I guess they actually did better than expected.
Indiana I hadn’t expected to be so good, especially early on. The Clippers as well took great leaps forward. Both teams are legit contenders. Paul George and Blake Griffin asserted themselves this year as truly great players, PG’s slump aside. His issues were more a symptom of a team wide struggle and that struggle was the only thing that kept my predicted 51 wins in play. The East was a two horse race from December onwards.
Two teams I figured would carry on their recent trajectories of suck-worthy seasons were Toronto and Charlotte. They were the biggest benefactors of playing in a weak Eastern Conference. Charlotte made the great move of signing Al Jefferson, a guy basically unstoppable in the paint, and with as reliable a weapon as he, you’re gonna get your fair share of wins against the strugglers. Toronto incredibly nabbed a three seed thanks to great years from the likes of Amir Johnson and Kyle Lowry. To be fair, they would have missed the playoffs in the West with their win total. It’s still a lot more than I’d picked for them. Full credit where it’s due.
THE UGLY
Here’s where I hand in my self-forged credentials: I picked the Knicks to win 55 games. I thought they’d be good! Melo did his best but everything else went wrong. 55 was generous anyway though I certainly didn’t expect them to finish so far off the pace. Injuries to key guys and uncountable off court dramas (largely thanks to JR Smith & Raymond Felton). Oh, and they’ve just brought in Lamar Odom to add to that. We’ll see what Phil Jackson can do with them next year, but this was a near worst case scenario season. I’m very, very embarrassed.
The Detroit Pistons. Whoops. Look, I like Josh Smith as a player, but he did NOT fit in well in Motown. He’s trying to be a leader, but you can’t do that unless you’re performing yourself. There’s a terrible locker room situation with the Pistons, and far too much off the court stuff finding its way into games. Their team president has resigned. Smith had a shocking year of basketball. At least Andre Drummond is blossoming into a great player. Pretty ashamed to say I had them with 47 wins and in the post-season.
Similarly, like a sucker I bought way too much into Milwaukee’s assurances that they weren’t tanking. I thought something close to what they managed last year, slightly better in fact with the additions of OJ Mayo and Carlos Delfino, but no. They sucked so bad it wasn’t even funny. Just pitiful.
There were two other teams that I vastly misjudged too, but in a good way. Portland and Phoenix ended up being two of the most fun teams in the NBA the past season. It was a sad day when the Suns lost to Memphis, ending their playoff hopes, but I was far from alone in underestimating them. Most pundits had them struggling to 20 wins with their patchwork roster. Instead breakout years from Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe (at least one of whom I’d expected them to trade once the season got deeper) and an absolutely masterful coaching job by Jeff Hornaeck had the Suns right in it until the final week. Likewise Portland are well placed to cause some damage in the playoffs after a year of great basketball Damian Lillard (offensively at least) and the always impressive LaMarcus Aldridge saw them far exceed expectations. Congrats, boys. I’m glad to be proven so wrong.