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The Wildcard’s Guide to the NFL - Week 3

(Leon Halip/Getty Images North America)

Last Week: 8-8

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-1)

Riding my way thorough trouble, I managed to cling to an even week as too many good teams lost and too many stupid teams won. The Browns over the Saints? Really? Ah, this week I’m feeling confident though.

‘Cyclop! If any ask thee, who impos’d th’ unsightly blemish that thine eye enclos’d say that Odysseus, old Laertes’ son, whose seat is Ithaca, and who hath won surname of city-raiser, bored it out!’

Hubris, thine name is Wildcard.

Anyway, it all starts with a nice Friday afternoon gimme. The Falcons are a trustworthy home team and they should win this with relative ease. Tampa Bay were a pre-season tease but it turns out that a handful of games throwing to both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey in Chicago does not a good quarterback make. Josh McCown won’t last the season with Mike Glennon waiting in the wings. Not at this rate. Roddy White is doubtful for the Falcons… Julio Jones is not. Problem solved.

Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 10

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (2-0)

I’ll have the Chargers, upsized, with a side of Antonio Gates doing what he does and a large Phil Rivers master-class, please. And I’ll take it to go.

Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 8

Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at St Louis Rams (1-1)

Here’s a metaphorical interpretation of one course of events:

Here’s my own subjective view:

Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 4

Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-0)

There were 4 teams that won by 15 or more in week 1 that then lost in week 2 (and by an average mark of 16 points). Tennessee were one of them, and even though I’m willing to defend Jake Locker, I mean, jeez if you can’t run on the Cowboys defence then you’re gonna have trouble. Especially when Cincinnati has such a well-rounded NFL team. 13 carries for 83 yards against Dallas; Shonn Greene and Dexter McCluster are their running backs. You’re not making the playoffs like that.

I like what Andy Dalton’s doing too. He cruised over the speed bump of AJ Green’s injury, and he did it easy. Mostly due to a great defensive unit taking care of any scoreboard pressure, but in the wake of his big contract extension and the heat he copped after it, things could hardly go smoother. Just 2 passing TDs so far, yet not a single interception. He’s passing at 65% completion and best of all… he is yet to be sacked. Only Houston can also boast a perfect QB protection record so far.

Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by 5

Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)

Ravens Without Ray Rice > Ravens with Ray Rice

Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 3

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Detroit Lions (1-1)

The Lambeau Lads were beaten by Seattle away week 1, fair enough, then they beat the Jets, fair enough. Yet that win was far too hard fought and in fact they were a poorly timed Jets timeout from losing that one too. Any team that pulls one out of the hat like that, no matter if they were the more talented team or not, deserves a roughing up the next week. But  there’s no great force of justice in the NFL. If there were then Jerry Jones’ would have been indicted by now.

The Lions are good enough to do it. They snapped a 5 game loss streak against the Pack last season when they demolished them 40-10… except that was with Aaron Rodgers out injured. The Packers have won 24 of the last 29 games against the Lions and the only time Aaron Rodgers has ever lost to them was in 2010 when he was knocked out in the first half and didn’t return.

Also, keep an eye on the Calvin Johnson – Jordy Nelson dual. The pair are 1 and 2 in receiving yards this season; 292 for Nelson, 247 for Johnson. This may be a high scorer.   

Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 1

Houston Texans (2-0) at New York Giants (0-2)

HEEEEERE’S J.J.!!!

Wildcard’s Pick: Texans by 7

Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)

Here’s the thing about the Colts’ rough start: it’s actually not that bad. They lost to two probable playoff teams and they had opportunities in both. As long as the nature of the Philly loss doesn’t leave any collateral psychological damage then there’s nothing to worry about. The Colts have the benefit of one of the worst divisions in the NFL and it starts with this game here. Nothing Jacksonville has done yet has convinced anyone that they can win more than 4 games. Two more times sacked against Washington and they’d have tied the all-time NFL record.

Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 10

Minnesota Vikings (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-2)

Sean Payton: Ok men. We’ve had a poor start to the season. It’s been awful. Losing to Atlanta hurts. It was a winnable game against a division rival. But then losing to Cleveland is UNNACCEPTABLE! There is NO reason for us to play that poorly.

Rob Ryan: No reason!

Payton: We should have had that team man to man in every position. It was Brees vs Hoyer, Graham vs Whoever Replaced Cameron, Marques Colston vs Geriatric Miles Austin minus Josh Gordon. Rob Ryan’s Defence vs … well, Cleveland.

Ryan: Me vs Cleveland!

Payton: And we sucked. Bad. Brees missed passes, our defence was shocking.

Ryan: Umm, yeah… shocking!

Payton: Pathetic in fact. There are no excuses to blow our coverage like that at such a crucial moment. We let them drive all over us and we choked.

Ryan: Ok, ease up there buddy…

Payton: DISGRACEFUL!

Ryan: Now hold on just a GODDAMN minute!

Drew Brees: Wait, guys. Settle down. It’s not that bad. Look, we’re 0-2, but we’ve got Minnesota at home this week and they’re without Adrian Peterson and let’s be honest they don’t have much else. Cordarrelle Patterson? Yeah, but who’s throwing it to him - Matt Cassell. We’ve got this, guys. The season starts here.

Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 12

Oakland Raiders (0-2) at New England Patriots (1-1)

Statistically, the Raiders are six times more likely to finish 0-16 than they are to make the playoffs. Not only do they have to play the Broncos and Chargers twice each having already started 0-2, but they’ve gotta play the NFC West too, aka the Best Division in Football. Oh, and they have the Patriots this week. In New England. Good luck with that.

Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 17

Washington Pro Football Team (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-0)

I stumbled across something incredible this week. Something that simply cannot be contained within the confines of my limited vocabulary. The following is a short promo clip from 1995 for NFL on Fox, featuring the Simpsons (IN THE GOLDEN ERA!)… I mean…  I cannot… y’know… … … ah, just watch it:

Although I will admit that Howie Long’s verbal endorsement of Homer’s famous corporal punishment is quite tasteless given the week the NFL has had. Though as a Cowboys fan, the dig they take at Jerry Jones (who I’ve compared to Mr Burns more than a few times) warmed my soul.

Much more than this game will. Is there a way in which they can both lose? Maybe a draw but that won’t happen. I’m one of those snotty folk who reckon Kirk Cousins is better than RGIII anyway, but they won’t beat the relentless Eagles.

Oh, and DeSean Jackson’s return to Philly. (He’s injured, but he’ll play, don’t worry)

Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 14

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)

Anyone who wrote off the chances of the Cardinals based on Carson Palmer has been proved falser than Roger Goodell’s testimonies. Because the little birdies won with Drew Stanton taking snaps in his first NFL game in three years. (Granted, they were playing the NY Giants)

Here’s Cardinals coach Brice Arians breaking the news to Stanton pre-game:  “You’re up, baby”

That was a real quote that was said and it happened.

As for the plight in San Francisco I don’t really know. They still look more than handy but it feels like their sandcastle could come crashing down at any moment. They’re fragile. Too many defensive fellas missing, too much turmoil in-house.

And this is a massive game. In a division as tough as this, you can’t afford to be dropping games to close rivals. The 49ers at this stage are the favourites to be 2014’s Team That Unexpectedly Misses The Playoffs. Like the Packers last year or the Saints before them.

Or maybe I’m just overreacting. I’m trying to pick my battles at least.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 3

Denver Broncos (2-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)

Rematch of the Superbowl! Except that the team that demolished the other is at home where they’re practically unbeatable. Having said that, if any quarterback is capable of learning the lessons that let him down last time it’s Peyton Manning, who has started this season like a champion.

The first couple of weeks have thrown up so many reasons to doubt teams that seemed good or love teams that seemed rubbish and even a few that have gone both ways and back again. Snap judgements are the bane of sports talk. Yet despite all that, it remains clear that these are still the two best teams in the league.

Seattle losing last week probably means the Broncos miss any chance to catch them off guard.

Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 4

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1)

Let’s play Stat Attack. Niche Cast shout out. Teams that start 0-2 have a 12% chance of making the playoffs based on the past 23 years. That’s a misleading stat because it includes teams that deserve that start and never had a hope of making the playoffs (e.g. this year’s Raiders) and also teams that are better than that but simply had a rough start (e.g. this year’s Colts). Some teams that’ll end 9-7 or whatever and others that’ll threaten the ol’ 0-16 embarrassment. Also, there are 7 teams that started 0-2 in 2014. 7 times 12 is 84. So by one (potentially misguided) way of thinking, there’s an 84% chance that one of them makes it.

However it’s a lot harder to defend an 0-3 start. Teams that begin with that handicap make the post-season stuff only 2% of the time. Plus it’s not like the Chiefs can sneak in with an 8-8 like the Giants threatened to do last year. They’re stuck in a division with the Broncos and Chargers.

Wildcard’s Pick: Dolphins by 3

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (2-0)

I’m running out of steam here. Umm… Panthers seem decent. I’ve never heard of any of those receivers but their defence is mighty. People tried to get all smartass over their close wins last season, saying they couldn’t repeat. That’s over thinking things. They kept games close because their defence is mighty and their offence slightly above average. The Steelers seem like a team that’ll do the business when expected, and lose when expected.

Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 6

Chicago Bears (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1)

Here’s a picture of Joe Namath.

Wildcard’s Pick: Bears by 13


The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. He knows when to hold ‘em, knows when to fold ‘em, knows when to walk away and knows when to run. Although he has been known to occasionally count his money before the dealing is done.