Last Week: 8-6

Season: 92-66

Philadelphia Eagles (4-6) at Detroit Lions (3-7)

So the first week of the tanking experiment went okay. I guess it’s not strictly tanking, I’m not trying to pick 0-fors each week. But I don’t really know what else to call it. I s’pose the best description is that I no longer care about playing the percentages because that wasn’t working anyway so now I’m going all in if I even sniff an upset. I sniffed a couple last week. The Bills couldn’t do for the Pats, nor could the Bears sneak by the Broncos but I got the Cowboys to win (not an upset but always a risk) and had the Buccs slaying the Eagles – two teams that it’s pretty obvious were wildly misjudged before the season. Got the Jags and Cards wins too, which was decent.

This week begins with a Thanksgiving trilogy. Better than many Hollywood trilogies, although it’s no Indiana Jones. For example, Eagles at Lions is not a particularly feisty game. It might have been if the teams were any good but there are seven wins between them. I wonder… if Philly loses here, what becomes of Chip Kelly?

Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 7

Carolina Panthers (10-0) at Dallas Cowboys (3-7)

You want an indication of what a mental season it’s been? Try the fact that, on a short turnaround, the 3-win Dallas Cowboys opened the books as favourites over the unbeaten Panthers. The best record in the NFC against the tied-worst record and the slackers are the pick. Madness.

Wildcard’s Pick: D-A-L-L-A-S! COME ON LADS, DO IT FOR ME!

Chicago Bears (4-6) at Green Bay Packers (7-3)

For the final Thanksgiving game (what a day!), it’s only right that I do the usual Thing’s I’m Thankful For list. So, 2015 NFL season, here I go:

I’m thankful that…

• The Eagles suck and it’s all falling to pieces
• Carson Palmer is happy
• Somehow the Cowboys are still in with a shot at the playoffs
• There hasn’t been a major off-field scandal for at least seven hours
• Sometimes Troy Aikman doesn’t commentate on Cowboys games
• Grantland is dead and The Niche Cache is taking over
• Tony Romo hasn’t broken a bone yet this week
• People aren’t talking about Jarryd Hayne so much anymore (let him work!)
• Tom Coughlin’s clock management

Aaaand that’s about it. It’s been a depressing season.

Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 4

Buffalo Bills (5-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)

Did anyone notice when the Chiefs came roaring back into contention? Coz they have, they’ve won four games in a row and there were a couple of very good wins in there (at Denver and vs Pittsburgh). In hindsight, losing to the Packers and the Bengals wasn’t such a tragic thing and they really should have beaten both the Broncos at home (Jamaal Charles’ fumble) and Bears at home (Jamaal Charles’ injury). That Charles injury felt like the end of their season to me, dropping them to 1-4 (they lost the following week too) and losing their very best player, like, how do you overcome that?

Turns out, for one thing, they can run the ball with basically anyone. At least 106 yards in all four of those wins, second year minimum guys Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware are grinding away on the floor and it’s working for them. And as if that wasn’t demonstration enough, Dontari Poe scored a rushing touchdown last game. Defensive lineman Dontari Poe. Now the heaviest player to ever score a TD in the NFL. 346 pounds (that’s 156kgs to the rest of the world!). You’d better believe he had a celebration ready too.

Fun Fact: Alex Smith hasn’t thrown an interception for seven games.

Last week I listed the four teams I thought were definitely out of playoff contention (Lions, Chargers, Browns, and Ravens – you can add the 49ers and Titans to that now too). It was kinda jarring to look at the standings and not only see so few teams left with little to play for, but to actually see genuine paths into the postseason for teams that shouldn’t have a hope in hell. The Dallas Cowboys have three total wins and are only two back on first place. The freaking Jaguars are a win back, the Houston Texans are tied for first. The Texans!? This is the team who didn’t even know who their quarterback was until one of the two battlers slept through his alarm one morning. Their running back is out for the season. They have two legitimately great players in J.J. Watt and DeAndre Hopkins and somehow that’s enough. Hopkins owned Darrelle Revis last week.

The Chiefs and Bills are two of the teams also keeping themselves above water. Assuming the Steelers take one AFC wildcard spot, this may prove a straight up duel for the other – they’re probably the two next best teams anyway. And whoever wins the AFC South (should be Indy but you never know) isn’t gonna be any better than whichever team loses here.

Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 3

St Louis Rams (4-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-2)

So the Andy Dalton thing has been completely solved now. He’s a great quarterback who struggles more than most under pressure. He also happens to play for one of the best blocking teams in the NFL, meaning that his kryptonite isn’t such a big deal.

But the Rams have a defensive line to beat most any defensive lines, even if they haven’t quite done it in 2015. This could be a slip up game for the Bengals who have lost two in a row after their great start. The Rams have lost three in a row and if that grows to four, in the situation that they’re in, then Jeff Fisher will not have a job much longer.

I wanna pick the Rams but I also want Fisher gone. The Rams have been a 6-8 win team for way too long. (Three seasons in a row soon to be four. They last had a winning campaign in 2003).

Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by 9

New Orleans Saints (4-6) at Houston Texans (5-5)

“Something had to be done. Right now, the defence is ranked 33rd in the league and there are only 32 teams.”

Rob Ryan has a pretty good idea of why he lost his job. It’s also a good reason by DeAndre Hopkins will catch 120+ yards with at least 1 TD while the Texans continue their resurgence. Hey, it’s never too early to make a comeback.

Wildcard’s Pick: Texans by 6

San Diego Chargers (2-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6)

There is no charge left in the Chargers.

Wildcard’s Pick: Jaguars by 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5)

Speaking of middling teams that are neck-deep in the playoff pool and trying to stay afloat, how about these two? One is as expected, one is not. The trick now is to separate the talent from the momentum. Run it through a sieve and see what remains.

Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 7

Miami Dolphins (4-6) at New York Jets (5-5)

Does anyone still watch The League? I used to really like that one and now it’s kinda painful, just the dumbest jokes and lamest set-ups. It was never exactly a high brow view but it at least used to have a spark to it. They ran out of all their fantasy football bits and now it’s another dumbass sitcom. I’m actually glad it’s their last season, Mark Duplass has much better things to do… which makes me wonder how many of that cast am I gonna care about in other projects now? Duplass, sure. Paul Scheer has a top quality podcast called How Did This Get Made as well (which Rafi is also in, he’s a funny fella). Other than that there’s nothing, sorry Ruxin. Anyway I just wanted to get that off my chest. It’s vaguely NFL related (or it used to be).

(Yo but I started watching that show Fargo? The first season was good but overrated – the second season is incredible, definitely get in on that one)

The Dolphins are on the right path but teams that make mid-season coaching changes don’t tend to have much leeway. The Jets are a quarterback away from being where they wanna be.

Wildcard’s Pick: I wanna say… Dolphins. By 1

Minnesota Vikings (7-3) at Atlanta Falcons (6-4)

Right, what else we got. Vikings at Falcons, hmm. I’ll tell ya this much and I’ll tell it for free, the Falcons are not a particularly good team. They have a mostly good offence that makes the odd dumb mistake and a defence that is playing above themselves, that’s cool. But they need Matt Ryan to be better in the red zone. Eighth in completion percentage (65.5%) and fourth in passing yards (2982) and yet his TD/INT ratio is 15/10. Carson Palmer is there or thereabouts in those first two ranks and his ratio is 27/9 – that’s a playoff effort right there. Meanwhile Matt Stafford is at 64.4% and 2607 yards and 15/12. Very similar, and look at the Lions. Ryan is a top ten QB, possibly a top five one (but probably not quite) and he needs to be the star of the team.

Whereas on the Vikings, Teddy Bridgewater only has to play facilitator. He’s 23 years old on a good squad and can afford a few dumb plays every game. His numbers? 64.6%, 2106 yards and 8/6. Adrian Peterson’s gonna punch in anything close anyway.

Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 6

New York Giants (5-5) at Washington R**skins (4-6)

Hate them both. Don’t engage me.

Wildcard’s Pick: Giants by 10

Oakland Raiders (4-6) at Tennessee Titans (2-8)

All these games, I’m running out of ideas. Dammit, I’ll give the Raiders one last chance to make that charge that they were teasing before. Back when they were 4-3 and coming off wins against the Chargers and Jets (one of those was a decent win, at least…). Unfortunately after this they host the Chiefs, travel to Denver come back to Oakland for games against the Packers and Chargers before heading on the road to Kansas City. I’d suggest they win… ooh, two of those. Chargers and then one of those other ones in an upset. My theory is that they’re looking to next year anyway. They were so protective of Derek Carr last season and in 2015 they’ve loosened the reins, though not all that much. With a couple good guys around him now, they should give him more licence next time around. As for the Titans, nobody dislikes Marcus Mariota. There’s just nothing much else there.

Wildcard’s Pick: Raiders by 5

Arizona Cardinals (8-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-7)

Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 20

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Seattle Seahawks (5-5)

No Marshawn Lynch, enter Thomas Rawls. It’s not a name that sounds like a crunching running back’s name – the only Rawls I can think of is Lou Rawls from The Wire. Unless we open that up to include John Rowles. And a quick google search brings to light this dude:

But no, we’re talking about Thomas Rawls, undrafted rookie from Central Michigan with 101 rushes for 604 yards and a couple touchdowns. That’s a champion move, bringing in unknown dudes and moulding them into useful utilities. He’s probably got four weeks now to carry them without Lynch.

The Steelers are without Le’Veon Bell too, of course. And while Big Ben will play, he’s not been 100% for a long time. Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant, however, are as tough a task as the Legion of Boom will face all season. Not much of a Legion these days, they got off to a bad start without Kam Chancellor and it’s only got marginally better with him. One pundit I heard called them the Legion of Doom like he didn’t even know and that’s a sorry indication. I still back them though. (And more than that I back Jimmy Graham against the Pitt defence – only the Giants, Saints, Raiders and Colts have given up more yards through the air).

Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 4

New England Patriots (10-0) at Denver Broncos (8-2)

Phwoar! The unbeaten Pats playing in Denver? Yeah buddy.

The only disappointing thing is that it won’t be Tom Brady against Peyton Manning but the way Peyton had been playing that’s probably a blessing in disguise. Manning’s slightly older than Brady but they’re close enough to where we can compare and say that what Brady’s doing this season is pretty special. The last 12 months have probably swung the Brady vs Manning thing in Tommy’s favour, even if the TV experts will never ever budge on their love for Peyton – he’s one of them, ya know? As opposed to Brady who’s flashy and handsome and much less attainable and is married to a Brazilian Supermodel. But this week is about Brock Osweiler.

The tanking part of me says that the Patriots are due a loss and that this is the most likely opportunity. Therefore I’m picking the Broncos. I’m just not sure why.

The Broncos defence, maybe? They ought to put more pressure on Brady and that damaged offensive line than anyone else has so far. If – just if – they can pick him of a couple times… well then we’ve got something going here. Dunno if Osweiler can repeat what he did in the last game but he looks to have a good, strong arm and a pretty nice radar, as well as the legs to make a play on the ground if he has to. He needs to avoid turnovers but he does know how to maintain a drive. Keep it in the hands when they can and leave Brady on the sidelines, get that Pats defence all exhausted in the altitude and there ya go. See what happens. Injuries to Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman are surely gonna catch up with them eventually. Even for the Patriots, you cannot expect perfection without at least a small slice of luck.

Wildcard’s Pick: Broncos by 2

Baltimore Ravens (3-7) at Cleveland Browns (2-8)

And then we stumble to the finish line on Monday Night Football. No Joe Flacco, no Johnny Manziel, no Justin Forsett, no Josh Gordon, no Terrell Suggs… no point in watching, really.

Wildcard’s Pick: Browns by 4

The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. He’s pretty much the Rob Ryan of NFL picking and you can take that in any way you wish.