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Bargaining Chip: Why the 49ers New Coach is Exactly What Jarryd Hayne Needs

So it goes, Chip Kelly is the new head coach of the San Francisco 49ers, the post-season shuffle leading them down the path most recently traversed with diminishing results by the Philadelphia Eagles. And before you ask, the answer is yes. Yes, Chip Kelly is just the coach to get the best out of his inherited fifth choice running back.

Here’s the most important thing to remember: The San Francisco 49ers did go searching for a new head coach wondering which one is gonna be the best fit for Jarryd Hayne. They’re not building this team around an Australian running back with a handful of games under his belt and only a year’s experience in this sport. But it does look like they’ve stumbled on a coach that might just suit him anyway.

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We’re talking about someone who is notorious for implementing his own style of play upon his teams. One with years of success in the college game and a 26-21 win-loss record in the NFL during his three years with the Philadelphia Eagles. Chip Kelly loves a fast-paced offence (if you want some early onset liver damage, drink every time you see those words and that name in the same sentence over the next few weeks). He loves intelligent and dynamic players who can adapt to what defences give them and he loves a quarterback with a clean pair of heels. It’s kind of his thing, and hiring him is like signing a letter of intent that your team’s gonna play his game. Kelly isn’t coming to San Francisco to change what he does. He’s coming to implement it.

“Chip has a proven track record at both college and NFL levels that speaks for itself. We believe strongly that he is the right man to get this team back to competing for championships.” – 49ers CEO Jed York

Chip Kelly, remember, had a lot of success at the Eagles at first. Taking over a 4-12 team for his debut job in the NFL (after a fruitful time with Oregon State), he took them to ten wins and into the playoffs in 2013 (where they lost 26-24 to the Saints thanks to a late field goal). Nick Foles went on a crazy-productive run as the QB while LeSean McCoy was named as an All-Pro running back with a franchise record 1607 yards, comfortably winning the rushing title. His Eagles repeated that win total in 2014 but with a lessened impact from Foles, who was injured and replaced by Mark Sanchez for the second half of the season and they stumbled from a 6-2 start to lose three in a row from weeks 14-16 (including to the 3-11 R*dskins) and from there a win in the final game away to the Giants wasn’t enough to resurrect their playoff hopes.

The 2015 season arrived with hopes of a playoff run, Kelly having been given substantial control over the roster on the back of his 20 wins in two years. He signed DeMarco Murray at RB and traded away LeSean McCoy, he flipped Foles for Sam Bradford. He lost Jeremy Maclin in free agency after a career year and he also traded away the likes of Evan Mathis and Trent Cole. They’d win seven games, but Kelly was fired after six of them, let go with their playoff chances gone in the wake of a 38-24 loss at home to Washington in week 16. He left amid accusations of racial bias, poor man-management and exaggerated ability.

Chip Kelly back in simpler times...

The San Francisco 49ers, meanwhile, have had a torrid time of things recently. A Super Bowl appearance (lost 34-31 to the Baltimore Ravens) in 2012 was bookended by NFC Championship game appearances in 2011 and 2013, but an 8–8 season in 2014 was a mess. Colin Kaepernick had emerged as an exciting young quarterback on the way to that Super Bowl but he started to struggle noticeably in his third season as a starter, opposition teams forcing him to rely on his arm game and him failing to make that work. Their defence showed the first signs of cracking. Their offensive line went rotten. Coach Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers decided to part ways in less than acrimonious ways.

He was replaced by Jim Tomsula, who just coached this team to a 5-11 record and was promptly sacked. It wasn’t an enviable gig. Not only was he taking over in the notable shadow of Harbaugh (who many felt was harshly treated, himself included) but he took over in the midst of one of the biggest talent exoduses imaginable. From the unexpected retirements of Patrick Willis and Eric Borland to Frank Gore, Mike Iupati and Michael Crabtree leaving in free agency to the axing of Aldon Smith and Ray McDonald for off-field reasons, they lost so many top players that any coach was probably gonna fall backwards. But maybe not this far. Tomsula was an interesting yet ultimately uninspiring in-house promotion and often seemed a few yards short of a first down as an NFL head coach. Kaepernick was terrible under his tutelage and the team’s offence plummeted to the worst in the league for points scored, second to last in yards gained. Not only that but their defence ended 29th out of 32 in yards allowed. It was their worst season since 2007. There wasn’t much shock when Tomsula was fired within hours of the conclusion of their final game.

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Jarryd Hayne walked into this in the early days of Tomsula’s time. It was initially thought that JT would offer JH a great route into the sport given his experience in Europe working with first-time grid iron players, though after impressing hugely in pre-season, Hayne found his role limited as the regulars began. A fumble on his first touch, a punt return, was an ignoble start (especially in a televised game) and a few more fumbles offset a couple nice returns and a few barging runs. Hayne isn’t exactly a power runner but he did show good strength and some useful instincts as a running back with the ball in his hands. His pass coverage and blocking, however, was massively raw.

So it came as a disappointment but not a shock when he was waived on Halloween. He’d survive the waiver process untouched, no other team so keen on a rookie Aussie RB at short notice mid-season, and re-signed with the Niners on their practice roster where he continued the hard work that had won him many fans on that coaching staff. That’s been the key to his whole journey: his refusal to let either success or failure change his outlook on what he is trying to do, and that’s hugely commendable. After appearing to make great strides on the PS, he was reinstated for the last two games of the season, making his first career start against the Detroit Lions in week 16.

Now, to reinforce this whole thing once more: Jarryd Hayne’s role on the team had no impact on anything during the search for a new coach. It is believed that former R*dskins coach Mike Shanahan was the next most likely candidate. Hue Jackson was also considered before he chose the Cleveland Browns instead and Tom Coughlin was a further possibility. In the end Kelly won out.

There’s a curious dilemma here between Kelly, who had his fingerprints all over the roster in Philly, and Niners GM Trent Baalke who has a reputation for handling those things himself with something of an iron fist. Baalke also took most of the blame in the Harbaugh situation going sour. Maybe Kelly has eased up on those reins and is willing to adapt or team up or whatever (given some of his failed roster experiments, that’s a real possibility). Or maybe Baalke is keen to work to Kelly’s agenda. That’s something that will have been fleshed out during negotiations so it’s unlikely to be a problem.

San Francisco 49ers General Manager Trent Baalke

Either way, we’ll get a good idea of the power balance based on how they approach the upcoming draft, in which they’ll pick seventh. There’s a good chance they pick up a mid/late round running back to compete there given the absolute mess they had behind Carlos Hyde last season. But there are plenty of other areas that need work, specifically across the entire defence. Colin Kaepernick’s job looked doomed a month ago, although now it seems that there’s a lot of optimism for his chances with Kelly. Which saves them having to gamble on a QB given the lack of slam-dunk options in this class and the general struggle when it comes to finding quarterbacks capable of winning playoff games by any means. Ask the Cleveland Browns.

This is a franchise almost at rock bottom, given their lofty ambitions. They’re rebuilding and that makes them beautifully suited to a coach like Kelly at this time. Any rebuilding process means opportunities for players who wouldn’t have otherwise gotten the chances and Jarryd Hayne is certainly in that conversation. At his age he cannot afford a lost season and his current deal guarantees him nothing beyond a training camp invitation. As far as his actual situation goes, he’s in the same place he was last year. Gotta get in there and grind and win fans. Nothing has changed there. But at the same time, he’s going in this time with his eyes open and with a year’s experience and coaching under his belt. He has every chance of making this thing happen once again.

And based on how Kelly used his running backs last season, there’s good reason to think he can offer a bit of value too. The Eagles spent big on DeMarco Murray, who isn’t strictly a downhill runner but he is a guy whose best stuff came behind a dominating Dallas Cowboys’ offensive line where he used his patience and his eye for a gap to burst on through to the rushing title in 2014. Yet in Philly he was an absolute bust for the first few games, continually dropped for losses. He’d emerge more as the season went on but it was still a horrible experience for him. Kelly wanted a running back who could play to his fast-paced offence (drink!), one that averaged over three seconds fewer between plays than any other. Murray wasn’t used to that. Instead Darren Sproles emerged as a key option for them, a guy famous for his ability to do a bit of everything: running, receiving and returning; Sproles had over 300 yards both rushing and receiving despite playing as third string. At his current potential, you’ve gotta imagine that’s something like the player Hayne could be. Not a first choice RB, instead one who gets maybe 5-10 rushes a game, is a passing target out of the backfield and returns kicks and punts. That’s a player that Chip Kelly would surely love.

Then again, Kelly may not like him and he could cut him after the first day of training camp. Hayne needs Kelly more than Kelly needs Hayne, that’s for sure. Kelly is the type of coach who thinks out of the box and takes chances. Hayne is used to playing off the cuff from his rugby league days and he’s used to doing it without much time to rest. Plus even if he’s down the pecking order, playing running back in this offence is a tiring task and there tends to be a bit of rotation. Chip Kelly is the coach he should want. Chip Kelly is the coach that can get the best out of him.

Especially compared to Jim Tomsula, who had such a conservative approach to the game that he and his guys would be calling short passing plays on third and long. Once he blew his standing as a punt returner (on a team without the talent levels to afford risk or mistake), Hayne didn’t really have a role left in Tomsula’s eyes. In the long term, sure, but he didn’t know if he’d be there for that time. Turns out he won’t be.

All of that is small change as far as the team goes. A winning side has more room to take roster gambles and a winning team requires a good quarterback. Colin Kaepernick used to be one of those, back when his ability to bust a run made him such a dangerous player. He still is a superb runner, it’s just that he doesn’t get to run until he shows defences that they need to respect his arm first and his yards per attempt have decreased every year since his first start in 2012. This past season, working under new offensive coordinator Geep Chryst – who, by the way, is no guarantee to return given that Chip Kelly may well choose for a staff overhaul – he threw just six touchdowns (and five interceptions) in his eight games.

Chip Kelly, though, has gotten top results from the quarterbacks that he’s worked with, despite never having had one that quite fits what he wants them to do. Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford all had some of their best games as pros (Foles had all of his) under Kelly’s tutelage. However his ideal QB is a guy in the mould of Marcus Mariota, who he coached at Oregon State to the Heisman Trophy as a freshman. His legs open up all sorts of playmaking, a trait he shares with Mr Kaepernick. The offensive scheme that Kelly used in Philly is best suited to a mobile QB and the only one of those he ever got to work with was a late-career Mike Vick, who is one of the league’s finest ever runners at his position… just not from the zone-read looks that Kelly preferred. Vick was at his best on designed runs, Kaepernick and Mariota (and, extending the scope, guys like Cam Newton, Alex Smith and Russell Wilson) are guys who are capable of reading a defence and busting a run on the fly and to great effect. Look at how Kap absolutely torched the Packers in the 2013 playoffs:

There were rumours that Kelly was prepared to do whatever he could to trade up and draft Mariota with the Eagles, which didn’t happen. There were rumours that Kelly would walk into the Tennessee Titans gig to reunite with Mariota. That didn’t happen either.

Make no mistake, Chip Kelly may have left the Eagles pretty ingloriously but he had his choice of several jobs all the same. If you have potential, then even if you fail at the first effort there are still gonna be guys who say: ‘Yeah, but I can get the best outta him’. Even Tim Tebow got a couple more trials after Denver. Kelly still has some bargaining power and so you can guarantee he’s looking for a team that he feels suits him. Colin Kaepernick will have been a big part of it – which is a bonus for the team too, because otherwise they’d be scraping the barrel for late draft picks for him. The other unknown factor is that Kap has had three offseason surgeries in the last two months. Probably a matter of dealing with things while he wasn’t otherwise playing, but you never know for sure.

Will Kaepernick use a dude like Hayne? Yeah, sure he will. He’s a QB with worries about his completion, he’ll love a dinky pass outta the backfield. In 2013 (his best, full season) FB Bruce Miller was his third most targeted receiver (25 catches on 36 throws), while Frank Gore at starting RB picked up a handy 16 catches at 8.8 yards per catch. Jarryd Hayne is presumably well made for that hybrid role, think of that week 16 start where he reeled in five catches vs DET (of the six he made all season). Generally you do need to be a starting RB to be a fixture in the passing game too, because it tends to be a check-down option. But then this is Chip Kelly and he has a way of thinking outside the box. Hey, it’s an odd thing to hope for from a coach, to run plays for a (not-so) obscure squad member, but at least he’s one that may try.

At the same time, perhaps Blaine Gabbert did enough at the end of the last campaign to keep the starter’s job. Given he only won three games, more likely he only did enough to keep his career alive. Good for him, both guys are options and there may even be a name or two else added to the fray just in case. Kap has the biggest upside, someone else may be safer. That’s a decision for the coach (and to some degree the GM) to make but it’s undeniable that Kaepernick and Kelly are a curious combination.

Jarryd Hayne too, even if it’ll be a very dependant relationship. As much as the tendency to overrate him on the back of his NRL career is there, as much as we’re treading unchartered territory with his switcheroo, there’s still the fact that Hayne was an underused utility. Maybe he won’t be the new Adrian Peterson, maybe he won’t ever start another game in this league. We don’t really know because the Tomsula regime was so non-committal:

  • Put him straight on the roster but only use him sparingly.
  • Waive him mid-season but re-sign him immediately to the practice squad.
  • Throw him in to start again late in the season but then ignore him the following week.

If the waiving was a sign that they’d pushed him too far too soon and he wasn’t ready then what was the reinstatement meant to mean? To a large part it was injuries that forced their hand, Mike Davis returned to take 10 rushes the final week when Hayne was active but unused, but applying logic here isn’t the easiest thing to do.

Yes, Hayne will have to learn a new playbook. No, that’s not a big deal. Every year brings an adjusted playbook and Hayne’s no different from anyone else on that roster. A new coach means that the entire squad is in a position of flux, no player is safe and LeSean McCoy will tell you that much. But Hayne was in this position already. This appointment should make him nothing but happy and excited.

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