GOOD – A Healthy Kirk Penney

The one major debate about the starting five was whether DJ Newbill would get to start ahead of Kirk Penney and which of the pair would therefore be tasked as the sixth man. Turns out it’ll be Penney, no worries. There isn’t really a wrong decision there and Newbill’s positional flexibility makes it easy to squeeze them both into second half line-ups.

However in that first game Kirk Penney was absolute trash. 2/5 from deep but he was missing everything else. Not a lot of energy, not a lot of impact. Yeah it turns out he was sick. Give him a few days to recover and it was a different story altogether: 25 points, 6/9 from deep. As the first man off the bench he doesn’t have to do much more than play some serviceable veteran defence and maybe win a few rebounds if he’s hitting his shots and this was most certainly that. He’s got Sixth Man of the Year potential at this rate.

BAD – Third Quarters, Sort It Out

It’s too early to say that any of this is more than early season jitters. Only two games to judge them upon and all. But there was a very notable trend as the Breakers got whalloped 25-12 in the third quarter against Cairns to surrender a lead that they’d never get back (a lead that got as high as 11 points in the 2Q too) and then after a fantastic first half against Sydney, scoring 54 points, they very quickly surrendered that lead too and a comfortable advantage at HT ended up requiring a last second game winner from DJ Newbill to salvage the W. With their first three games all at home it was pretty important they capitalised on that. Lucky for DJ, aye?

GOOD – DJ Play That Song

BAD – Tom Abercrombie, Surprisingly

Tommy’s 41.1% field goal success last season was his worst in quite a few years. Was he banged up? Yeah, they all were. But he’s usually better than that and what’s weird is that he was still a complete gun from deep – making 42.7% of his trebles. That’s magnificent and yet somehow he was worse when he took a step or two closer to the basket? Figure that one out – his free throws weren’t too flash either but he was a damn sight better than his anomaly season from the stripe the term before.

So, yeah, Abercrombie is a bloke with room to improve in 17-18. He’s a bloke being slept on in this team, a bloke who could be crucial if he gets it going. First half of the first game and that’s exactly what we got. Tommy was stunning. He missed a three in the second minute and then was perfect for the rest of the half. 15 points as the Breakers took a 4-point HT lead. He then emerged for the third and only hit one more jump shot all game – 3/7 from the field with two layups in there. He was still rebounding, which is nice, but there was definitely a drop-off.

Which would’ve been fine had he not then put up four terrible quarters in the Sydney game. While Kirk Penney was almost flawless and DJ Newbill out there grinding away for points, TA went 0/4 for the entire game. Only four field goal attempts? This is a bugger who averaged more than twice that last season. He’s 6/11 from his FTs as well so far. It was a bad game and that can happen – it’s just confusing that he could be so damn good for the first two quarters and dead average for the next six.

GOOD – A Bench That Works

This could as easily be logged as a BAD, to be honest, depends which angle you look at it from. No basketball team is gonna be successful over a full season with only five contributors and the Breakers look to have a solid enough – and completely local – bench. That depends on guys like Shea Ili, Finn Delany and Rob Loe getting it done as well as Kirk, though.

• Bench vs Cairns: 13 PTS | 4/21 FG | 13 REB | 3 AST | 7 TO | 14 PF
• Bench vs Sydney: 46 PTS | 14/24 FG | 14 REB | 7 AST | 7 TO | 9 PF

Very similar stats in some regards, entirely different in the most important one. Kirk Penney and Shea Ili’s explosions brought all sorts of offence and in the interests of optimism and valid excuses it’s been decided by decree that the Sydney game is more reflective of this bench as a unit. If Penney is a Sixth Man contender then Ili has to be a Most Improved contender. The bench works… at least until it doesn’t.

BAD – Bloody Rob Loe Again

He’s so much better than he’s ever shown for the Breakers. He just has trouble with the physicality of it sometimes, coughing up the ball too often and, especially, fouling way too much on defence. He fouled out against the Taipans in 13 minutes of play, he only fouled twice in the next one but also still only played 14 mins. Gotta earn those extra ticks and it doesn’t help that he hasn’t quite got it going at the other end yet either. 3/10 FG with 9 points for the season. 9 points versus 7 fouls and 5 turnovers. That is not a good big man balance and unfortunately he’s heading in the wrong direction from where he unflatteringly ended last season. Looking good off the boards, granted.

GOOD – Shea Ili’s Game vs SYD

He got 19 minutes in the first game but he didn’t play well. 1/6 from the field, scoring just 2 points with 0 assists and 2 turnovers. Now, Ili isn’t the kind of guard who can flip assists all over the show, he’s not a great passer for his position. At least not at this stage of his career. What you get from him instead is hustling defence and bustling offence. He’ll play off the dribble and he’ll be a pain in the arse to his opposite guards.

Thing is, he’s not that tall so that defence needs to be as energetic as possible to stay involved – otherwise it’s pretty easy to shoot over the top of him. And no matter how quick he is in getting to the bucket he has to be able to make those shots or else it’s a waste. Against Sydney he got both of those things going.

28 MINS | 15 PTS (4/7 FG, 7/9 FT) | 2 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 4 TO | 2 PF

Still turned a couple over as he was pressured in the half-court stuff but he was a factor all game which is massive. Ili was picked for a breakout player after his efforts with the national team and this was what they meant. Showed some touch around the rim and best of all he was able to get to the line and make his free throws. Even made three of four right at the clutch. That’s essential for his style of game. The dude hit 84% last NZ NBL season so he’s got the potential.

BAD – Can’t Beat Cairns

Swept by them in four games last season, dropped one already this season. Split two and two the year before. Which means that since beating them in two in the 2015 Finals the Taipans have now won five of the seven games against the Breakers since. They’re not even that good!

GOOD – How About That Rebounding, Tho?

Pledger and Loe have the height, they’ll reel those suckers in regardless. What makes the Breakers a good rebounding side is that they also have guys like Vukona and Abercrombie who can attack the boards at both ends – and rebounding has always been a big part of their success. They out-rebounded Cairns 46-40 despite losing that game by 11 points (including 16 O-Rebs) and then did for Sydney 37-31 with 12 offies. That’s a solid advantage in both games and it looks like DJ Newbill can be added to the rebounding crew as well with 12 in two.

BAD – Haven’t Seen Much Of Sosa Yet

Dunno that this is really something to be worried about, Sosa looks like a sharp player who can bring it in a few different areas. But while he did score 15 points in the first contest, he also needed 14 shots to get them and he turned the ball over five times. He was anonymous for large stretches against Sydney. Only made one bucket from six for 3 points and saw his court minutes drastically cut by almost ten to make way for Shea Ili. Imports can take some time to settle in so it’s probably more a matter of giving him space… and Ili doing what he did the other day allows for some of that.

The Fifth Annual Niche Cache Breakers MVP Race:

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