Last Week: 7-7

Season: 53-38

Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) at Oakland Raiders (2-4)

Friday 1.25pm NZT

First regrettable opinion of the column: The Raiders aren’t coming close to the playoffs.

I’ve been crunching the numbers. I love NaVorro Bowman on this team – they bloody need him – but think the Raiders, who have lost four games in a row, who are about to lose their fifth game in a row, have a best case scenario of 9-7 and that’s with some very desperate wins in there. Worst case scenario is something closer to 4-12… the inverse of last season. They’ll be good again next year but after years of being crap they came into goodness way too quickly to be sustainable. The Panthers had a down season after going to the Super Bowl. The Cowboys might be doing the same thing as the Raiders in 2017 – they did it in 2015 too. Doesn’t mean they ain’t built to last.

Which isn’t to say that they can’t win this one. The Chiefs just copped one and are on a short turnaround. Could be vulnerable. I don’t think so, though.

Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 7

New Orleans Saints (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-2)

Monday 6.00am NZT

C-R-I-S-I-S

Green Bay Packers fans got to learn how to spell a new word this week because Aaron Rodgers is probably done for the whole season with that broken collarbone. You really can’t overestimate how much of a devastation that is – one week after he single-handedly won them that game against Dallas (bastard…). He’s potentially the most important player to any team in the NFL and he’s not gonna play again.

I realise the Packers have held it down without him in the past, like in 2013 when Rodgers had a similar (but not quite as bad) collarbone injury. He missed seven games and after going winless in five games without him, including the game he got hurt in, they somehow managed to win two one-point victories against Atlanta and Dallas before losing to the Steelers and then Rodgers returned to lead them into the playoffs with a win over the Bears in week 17.

It can happen… but they only won two of eight games without him back then. They still needed Rodgo to come back and win that last one. The Packers were 4-1 when he got hurt and finished 8-7-1. There’s very little chance that neither the Lions nor Vikings get to at least eight wins so can the Packers win five times without Aaron Rodgers? Hell nah. Which is a roundabout way of saying that y’all are torched. And if you don’t believe me then you only need look as far as Wikipedia, which has already given up.

I’d never even heard of Brett Hundley. Drafted in the fifth round of the 2015 draft, he didn’t take a snap as a rookie, threw ten passes for two completions and a pick in 2016 and is now the started tasked with saving this team in 2017 behind a busted offensive line and all that.

Tell you what’s exciting about this though, that injury opens the NFC wide up. The Eagles are up the top right now and are legitimately good. You can’t deny that at this point. The Rams and Seahawks are hovering, the Vikings and Panthers both have four wins right now. I’m not quite yet ready to give up on the Cowboys, Lions or Falcons either. And then we have these Saints.

Before that insane Lions game the Saints hadn’t lost a turnover and had only allowed two rushing touchdowns all season. Everyone gets one wonky game and Matt Stafford in the fourth quarter can do that to people, the Lions getting on a run and things getting weird. Ignoring that drama though you’ve got a Saints team that can move the ball on the ground, meaning less pressure on Drew Brees, and with a genuinely impressive secondary. They lost their first two games which is a good way to slide under the radar but those defeats were to the Vikings and Patriots. Since then it’s been three wins in a row, Panthers, Dolphins and Lions, and now they get a Rodgers-less Packers team before homers against the Bears and Buccs. Tell me the Saints can’t make the playoffs, go on. Say it. SAY IT, I WANNA HEAR YOU SAY IT!

Ahem. Here are the most enjoyable highlights you’ll watch all season, including maybe the catch of the season in there somewhere:

Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 9

New York Jets (3-3) at Miami Dolphins (3-2)

Monday 6.00am NZT

This has just been a ridiculous season to predict. Which makes for a fascinating season to watch. There aren’t really any stand out teams that you can trust, other maybe than the Chiefs but they just lost too, which is leading to underdog wins all over the show. Here are some things that happened last week which shouldn’t have:

• These Jets were a dodgy touchdown call away from potentially beating the Patriots.
• These Dolphins came from 17-0 down away from home against a Falcons team coming off a bye and they somehow managed to win despite an awful offence led by Jay Cutler and all wonder of dramas going on around the team.
• The Broncos lost to a win-less Giants team, getting busted against the run despite having comprehensively destroyed the Cowboys’ far superior run game a few weeks ago.
• The Saints were up 45-10 to the Lions in the third quarter and they could have lost, the Lions scoring 28 straight points before Cam Jordan returned an interception for a score – 52-38 the final score.
• Da Bears won another game.

That’s enough to ruin any week of picks. What am I supposed to think of the Jets and Dolphins now? What I actually think is that they’re both dead average and have had a fair bit to get to this point but what am I supposed to think? I dunno… I’d rather not.

Say, here’s an asshole:

Wildcard’s Pick: Dolphins by 3

Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-2)

Monday 6.00am NZT

This was a touchdown pass, Joe Flacco at his very best. Just a shame he was three yards ahead of the line of scrimmage, the dumb bugger. He started running too! Then, apparently, second-guessed that silly idea. He’s no Forrest Gump.

Teddy Bridgewater thinks he can play this season. I miss Teddy Bridgewater. I really don’t think he’s gonna play this season.

Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 6

Carolina Panthers (4-2) at Chicago Bears (2-4)

Monday 6.00am NZT

Update on the Mitch Trubisky Experiment:

@ BAL - 8/16 ATT | 113 YDS | 1 TD | 0 INT | 94.0 RATE

Like, that’s a perfectly nice line… for a first quarter. That was Trubisky’s entire game right there with only eight completions and yet here’s the thing… they won! 50 run plays on 75 offensive plays. It’s the safe way to do things, protecting the joker – especially against the Ravens – but how exactly that’s turned into a win is beyond me. A lot of things are this season, tbh.

Now here are the passing stats for Bears running back Tarik Cohen:

@ BAL – 1/1 ATT | 21 YDS | 1 TD | 0 INT | 158.3 RATE

Remember when I said last week that Cam Newton was back towards MVP form and then he promptly threw three interceptions in a defeat at home to Philly? Because I sure do, dammit.

Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 7

Arizona Cardinals (3-3) at Los Angeles Rams (4-2)

Monday 6.00am NZT

I quite like this young fella that the Cardinals started at running back last week. Aaron Peterfield or whatever his name is. Looked a decent player, aye, lock him up in your fantasy league before the word gets out.

He chilled after that, AD getting 26 carries for 134 yards with 2 TDs. A few catches outta the backfield too. Chances are he won’t keep that sort of form up but if he can at least be a threat and a workhorse there then suddenly Carson Palmer’s dealing with far less pressure and that offence opens right back up to… not quite where it was supposed to be with David Johnson but something close at least. Prior to last week the Cardies had won two games: scoring 16 points against the Colts and 18 points against the 49ers. They put 38 on the Buccs to beat win in week six and they needed almost every one of them. 38 points in one week for a team that’d scored 81 in the previous five combined.

Surprisingly the Rams have the fourth worst rushing defence too, if you go by yardage conceded. They’ve given up eight rush TDs as well, only the Colts are that bad. Fourth most in yards per rush as well – hardly what you’d expect from a team that in recent years has looked at its defensive line as the one major strength they had. It’s their offence that does the trick these days. So while that leaves the door open for Adrian Peterson again, I just don’t think the Cards can score enough points to stay with it.

Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)

Monday 6.00am NZT

Jeezus, might be a good excuse to sleep in on Monday – there are some terrible early games. Which means it must be time for a tangent. They used to have NFL Game Pass for free in New Zealand, only a few years ago too. But then I only found out in time to use it for one season – I don’t know how long it was available for but once we started getting non-ESPN NFL coverage (on the old Summit Sports channel, haha) that disappeared. Pretty common practice apparently (old mate Diggity Doc can watch Rugby Pass for free in Chile, the lucky bugger).

I was thinking of that while writing this and trying to watch NBA League Pass through my annual seven day free trial. It’s basically a tradition for me, presumably for many other NBA fans in Aotearoa too. Having said that, my wi-fi connection was scrappy enough that the Mavs game I was watching lagged all second half and then crashed completely with three minutes left in the fourth quarter of a close game. I could’ve thrown my laptop through the damn window and out into the street at that point, not even joking. Is there a moral to this story? Probably not. But I’m not paying full price for a season on one of those things, as good as they are, until I trust New Zealand’s internet connections are gonna give me the full product as advertised. How’s that fibre crap coming along?

Mindless rant over, Jameis Winston is injured and Ryan Fitzpatrick might need to start here. Old Stan Rizzo has been around a while. If you thought that disastrous Jets stay would end his career then, buddy, you don’t know Ryan Fitz. After playing last week he’s now one of only four players ever to throw touchdown passes for seven different teams (Vinny Testaverde, Chris Chandler and Gus Frerotte). He’s beaten the Jacksonville Jaguars with five different teams, that’s a unique achievement, as is his having thrown four TD passes in a game for four different teams.

I’m still leaning towards Winston starting but if Fitzy gets the opportunity then recall that he played four seasons for the Bills and recall that he played his best game last season against his old Buffalo mates (there are only five players left from when he departed in 2012 so that’s a figurative claim).  

Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 3

Tennessee Titans (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (0-6)

Monday 6.00am NZT

DeShone Kizer is back in already, so much for the Kevin Hogan experiment. Although Hue Jackson did say Hogan had a slight bruised rib which is why he was dropped and that’s nice, takes the pressure of a young dude who played awful last week, he must’ve been reading this column – that’s what I said he shoulda done with Kizer. But in case you thought that was serious then know that Jacko also dropped Hogan to third on the depth chart behind Cody Kessler. That Cleveland quarterback list isn’t getting any shorter.

Well when you put it way…

Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 10

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) at Indianapolis Colts (2-4)

Monday 6.00am NZT

Wildcard’s Pick: Jaguars by 2

Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at San Francisco 49ers (0-6)

Monday 9.05am NZT

Ezekiel Elliot’s suspension gets lifted and enforced and lifted again like Harvey Weinstein gets… hey who let Al Michaels in here!? Seriously, when he made that joke live on air in a nationally televised game like it was a clever thing to say, goddamn Al. You made Chris Collingsworth blush! It’s actually hilarious that a veteran broadcaster thought he could get away with that level of tastelessness.

Do you think if the Cowboys were 5-0 or 4-1 that they’d have just taken the suspension now knowing that he’ll definitely be back fresh and fired up for the playoffs? I think that’s what I’d have done but I get the feeling that Jerry Jones is a fellow who takes things personally and when he takes things personally he goes out for single-minded vengeance. Regardless of whether he’s right or wrong… remember when he was weaselling into meetings to delay Roger Goodell’s new contract? As far as I’ve heard there’s been no progress there and once again Zeke’s suspension’s been suspended.

I dunno that Zeke or no Zeke makes much difference anyway. The Cowboys have understandably gone hard at the run game but it’s not really working against teams who know it’s coming. Their offensive line’s still amazing but it’s weaker than it was last season and so far that’s been enough to stutter them. It’s only really in that last quarter against the Packers that Zeke’s looked like the guy he was last season. The Cowboys are at their best with Dak Prescott playing with the ball in his hands right now.

Hey, here’s a stat:

Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 3

Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)

Monday 9.25am NZT

There’s really no stopping the Steelers. They throw these dramas up all over the place and Big Ben is sounding all broken and sad and then they only go and beat the last remaining undefeated team in the NFL. They’re 4-2, they’re one game off the top record in the league. No team should lose to the Bears and still be able to beat the Chiefs but then that’s been this season, hasn’t it?

Huge game here for the Bengals. They’ve recovered nicely from that 0-3 start with wins over the Browns and Bills before the bye and if they win here then they can easily beat the Colts next week to go 4-3. A three-game road trip after that could be troubling but then the Jaguars, Titans and Broncos have all shown their own vulnerabilities. Cincy were so bloody awful in the first couple weeks now they’re on the verge of storming right on back… then again they could lose by 20 here and get left in the dust.

Last week I picked the Steelers to lose to the Chiefs without realising their fantastic recent record against KCC. Doubt I woulda changed my mind knowing that but it should be pointed out here that Andy Dalton has lost nine of his 12 starts against Pittsburgh and, including playoffs, the Steelers have won four in a row against Cincy.

There’s been some biffo between these two teams in recent years too, bring a helmet. Like that 2015 playoff game when Antonio Brown got knocked out and Vontaze Burfict went full villain. Or the season after when the coaches patrolled the midfield pre-game in case something akin to the Anchorman street fight broke out. AJ Green hurling a trident or whatever…

George Iloka: “Aw, they're not brothers. It's that cousin that your parents invite over that you're not really cool with, that's what that is. They're there for Thanksgiving dinner and you're like, 'Man, why did you all invite them this year?' That type of thing.”

Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 8

Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at New York Giants (1-5)

Monday 9.25am NZT

All the things that the Broncos did wrong to allow the Giants to win last week? The Seahawks aren’t that dumb. The Seahawks defence looks as good now as it has since they won the Super Bowl (HOT TAKE!) and when your team is that sorted on one side of things then you don’t have to worry, you can spend all your time working on that offence. By the end of the season, unless Russell Wilson cops a few too many sacks and breaks a collarbone, Seattle will get enough of a thing going on that side of things too to where they’ll be a genuine threat come playoffs time. Boring as it might be, the Seahawks are poised for a decent shot at that Super Bowl. Again. Yawn.

Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 13

Denver Broncos (3-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-4)

Monday 9.25am NZT

Okay, I think I can put this into at least some slim kinda context…

• Broncos Wk 1 vs Chargers – W 24-21, played average
• Broncos Wk 2 vs Cowboys – W 42-17, played brilliant
• Broncos Wk 3 at Bills – L 26-16, played badly
• Broncos Wk 4 vs Raiders – W 16-10, played average
• Broncos Wk 5 vs Bye – N/A, played average
• Broncos Wk 6 vs Giants – L 23-10, played abysmally

They’ve only really played the one fantastic game but they’ve ground out a couple good enough wins over the Chargers and Raiders – which is how these buggers play, so that’s fine. They’re built on grinding play and if Trevor Siemian brings it too then sweet as. Mostly he’s just there not to lose it for his team (a lesson a few other QBs could learn these days). The Bills defeat came after a great win the week before and Siemian threw two picks. Then they had the bye, sitting at 3-1 and feeling comfortable, and went on to lose horribly with a terrible game plan that allowed the Giants, with all those WR injuries, to run all over them as was their only chance of winning, while Siemian threw two picks. They know how to win these games but they aren’t too good at backing them up… because… argh bollocks, I give up. Can’t do it. Look, I tried but the Broncos just don’t make any sense to me. And don’t even get me started on the motherlovin’ Chargers.

Wildcard’s Pick: Broncos by 6

Atlanta Falcons (3-2) at New England Patriots (4-2)

Monday 1.30pm NZT

Right so the Falcons are playing away to the Patriots, in a Super Bowl rematch, reminiscent of all those 28-3 jokes – the Pats have been trolling them all season for it – and they just blew a 17-0 lead against the Dolphins last week by going scoreless in the second half having inconceivably abandoned the run game just as they did in the Super Bowl. Anybody know any priests who perform exorcisms?

I don’t know how a team can be that dumb. I just know that if they don’t get their revenge in this game then the city of Atlanta might never be the same and I watched that film Baby Driver, man, it’s awesome. And like every other person with ears I love me some Outkast too. Also, the Pats are genuinely bad on defence this year, worse than the Dolphins, so even if they do play dumb in the second half then who’s gonna stop them. Bugger it, up with the Falcons one time.

Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 3

Washington R*dskins (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-1)

Tuesday 1.30am NZT

Hate ‘em both, not bothered.

Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 7

BYE: Detroit Lions (3-3) & Houston Texans (3-3)

The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. He’s never broken a collarbone but he did once fracture his cheekbone on Christmas day playing backyard cricket and he didn’t even got to the hospital, mate. True story.

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