Last Week: 11-3

Season: 104-54

Minnesota Vikings (8-2) at Detroit Lions (6-4)

Friday 6.30am NZT

Thanksgiving is here and the NFL has one more reason to show how much they love America while players expose the hypocrisy of that idea and fans spend lots of money to give the league reason for its bland and ceremonial patriotism. Stay thankful though, always stay thankful. A person who can be both thankful and forgiving is a person who is living a happy and fulfilling life. Nothing to do with pilgrims either.

Quick bit of loving for the Minnesota Vikings, doesn’t it seem like they’ve slid under the radar? Meanwhile only the Eagles have a better record than them at the mo’.

Crazily their offensive line has gone from one of the worst pass protections to one of the best in the space of one season, this team is fifth in offensive yardage and fifth in defensive yardage. Case Keenum is completing at 65% with only 12 picks. It’s not dissimilar from what we saw with Sam Bradford last season, those stats are clearly a lot to do with offensive scheme and his redzone numbers reflect that – the Vikes are also have the fifth most field goal attempts (9 TDs to 0 INTs in the redzone for Case tho, he’s not exactly bad there either). Also with that defensive unit, they can live with anyone.

Also, Adam Thielen is a top tier wide receiver, in case you didn’t already know.

Things are breaking good for the Lions. Doubt they win this division ahead of the Vikings, so a wildcard is their best shot at the playoffs. And, oh, would you look at the state of the NFC wildcard picture? The Panthers are 7-2 but always vulnerable, the Falcons are 6-4 but with a brutal set of games left, the Seahawks are 6-4 and missing half their defence, the Cowboys are 5-5 and just got blown out twice, the Packers and Cardinals don’t have their starting QBs… why not the Lions?

The Lions who have done exactly what they needed to do in beating three bad teams the last three weeks to get their campaign back on track. They’ve already dumped the Vikings once on the road this season. Three of their defeats came to winning teams by less than five points as well and that’s Stafford time if you can keep keeping things close.

Umm… not this week though.

Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 3

Los Angeles Chargers (4-6) at Dallas Cowboys (5-5)

Friday 10.30am NZT

11-5 will put the Cowboys into the playoffs, 10-6 will get the Chargers there as well. However those two things are not possible together, somebody has to win this game and the loser might well have run out of chances. There are reasons to back either team here, from the Chargers’ defence to the Cowboys’ run game and home field advantage, so not a lot to be gained in trying to balance the better team here – especially when there are even more reasons on both sides why each side can’t win than why each will. What matters most is that the Last Chance Saloon is giving the ol’ final call for alcohol and somebody’s gonna miss out.

Chargers remaining schedule:

• at Cowboys (5-5)
• Browns (0-10)
• R*dskins (4-6)
• at Chiefs (6-4)
• at NY Jets (4-6)
• Raiders (4-6)

Cowboys remaining schedule:

• Chargers (4-6)
• R*dskins (4-6)
• at NY Giants (2-8)
• at Raiders (4-6)
• Seahawks (6-4)
• at Eagles (9-1)

The good news is that both these teams have some generous games to come and can get on a real roll into the playoffs. The bad news is that nobody trusts them to do that. Zeke Elliott will be back for the Seattle game, btw. They’d better hope it still matters by then, which means a minimum of 8-6 if not 9-7 on four straight wins.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 2

New York Giants (2-8) at Washington R*dskins (4-6)

Friday 2.30am NZT

Great tweet, bro. Quality stuff. And it’s even funnier because you just know that if he found himself in a real fight that he’d definitely be a slapper and a scratcher, no elbows in sight let alone closed fists. You do yours, Kirk. You do yours.

WHAAAAAT A CATCH! Where do the Giants keep finding these blokes that made wide receiving look like both the easiest but also the most impossible art in the world? Always seem to save it for the crucial moments too. Then again we can’t get in any way excited about a win like that when the G-Men didn’t even score a touchdown. They’re still awful, they just met a Chiefs team that cocked their game up to remarkable proportions.

Neither of these teams are making the playoffs. The Giants are long since gone and the Washington Pro Football Team have lost all their tough games… except for when they beat the Rams. Their schedule’s been tough, but they’ve already lost to the Eagles twice, the Cowboys, the Saints, the Chiefs and the Vikings. Beat the Seahawks, to be fair. But yeah, ouch. At least things are easier down the stretch, with two against the Giants, the Cardinals and Broncos also coming up… the damage has been done though.

No dramas, they’re not even that good.

Wildcard’s Pick: WPFT by 10

Cleveland Browns (0-10) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-6)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Oh do they have a football team in Cleveland? Huh, funny. I write an NFL column every week and yet I’ve never even heard of them. Do they have any good players? How have they been going this season?

Side note on the Bengals, who should win this one by a spare touchdown. The AFC looks likely to come down to the Patriots against the Steelers and the Jags should be good for a playoff spot as well. I’d back the Titans right the ship after last week and sneak a wildcard spot but that still leaves a curious playoff picture and the Bengals, despite that awful start, are far from out of it.

• Tennessee Titans (6-4)
• Baltimore Ravens (5-5)
• Buffalo Bills (5-5)
• Miami Dolphins (4-6)
• New York Jets (4-6)
• Cincinnati Bengals (4-6)
• Houston Texans (4-6)
• Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)
• Oakland Raiders (4-6)

The Bills are slipping, the Raiders, Dolphins and Jets aren’t that good, the Texans are screwed, the Ravens barely have an offence some weeks and even the Titans aren’t all that convincing. Cincy does have to play the Steelers and Vikings yet so there’s a couple likely defeats. If they can beat Detroit and Baltimore in their last two, however… hmm. You never know. 8-8 might be enough. 9-7 probably will be if they can shock the Steelers or Vikes.

Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by honestly-who-even-cares-at-this-point

Buffalo Bills (5-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)

Monday 7.00am NZT

At least somebody feels that way. And, no, I don’t subscribe to the stuff that Tyrod’s not even that good. Weirdly those talks seem to stem from Bills fans most of all so I’m at least sympathetic with them there, however these jokers aren’t winning games with a rookie QB. They don’t have the talent around him, he never should have had to play that game.

Woah but he did and… yeeow. Five picks in 16 pass attempts!? That might have been the worst debut in NFL history, how the hell is he supposed to recover from that? You almost have to start him again this week anyway just so you don’t turn him into the answer of a pub quiz question. Then again the Chiefs are here to save their season after somehow transforming back into the Chiefs again. Tyrod Taylor’s starting. Poor young Nate Peterman.

Micah Hyde said his nickname for Peterman is Nate Favre… he certainly made an early statement if he’s trying to catch Favre’s NFL record of 336 career interceptions. We need some Brett Favre’s in the NFL though, all these young quarterbacks out there dominating keep protecting the ball too damn well. I want someone out there who’ll throw 4 TDs with 3 INTs six times a season and win all six. I doubt we’ve seen the last of Nate Peterman at the Bills, I reckon he’ll be back in due course. Just gotta let Tyrod earn that free agent contract first.

The Chiefs won five in a row, the Chiefs have now lost four of five since. There were some unlucky losses in there and some losses to good teams but nothing confirms a slump more than dropping one in overtime to a team that’s been as bad as the Giants have in 2017.

Amidst that slump, this seems like a relevant point to make:

Kareem Hunt Wk 1-5: 97 ATT | 609 YDS | 6.28 Y/A | 4 TD

Kareem Hunt Since: 76 ATT | 264 YDS | 3.47 Y/A | 0 TD

He doesn’t even have a rushing TD since week three. His receiving stats are pretty similar but who cares about receiving when this dude was on target to smash some all-time rushing records after five weeks and in his five games since he’s been New Orleans Adrian Peterson. Rookie of the Year… mate, he’s not even close anymore.

Plus Deshaun Watson’s out of it, Leonard Fournette was never even that good (he might be in time but his early stats were based on that one massive run)… it’s gotta be Alvin Kamara, right? The Saints have probably got the Defensive Rookie OTY as well in Marshon Lattimore (although we’ll see hot that injury holds up).

Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 6

Tennessee Titans (6-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-7)

Monday 7.00am NZT

That was bad from Marcus Mariota. He’s not often the reason the Titans lose, and chances are they would have anyway in this one, but when you throw four picks on Thursday Night Football against a likely playoff rival then you’ve gotta then take a step back and see what’s up. Like, this is not a dude who tends to play too risky through the air – he’d never had more than two passes picked off in a game prior to the trip to Pittsburgh. But this was also his seventh multi-pick game and the Titans are 0-7 in those games. Mariota won’t hurl 450 yards in a tough game against a better team like the best quarterbacks might. Put simply, he cannot play at that level if this team’s gonna win.

Having said that, I agree with him when he says it’s a fluke performance. A definite outlier. I like Mariota and you’ll see the best of him when Tennessee finally figures out a way to run the ball, dammit. It just seems like this is a team built to run the ball yet they’re so hot and cold. 180 rush yards against the Bengals was followed by a season-worst 52 in Pittsburgh. They bossed the Colts with 168 yards on the ground only to fail to get past 80 in an OT win over Cleveland the next week. In four games where they’ve gotten over 150 rush yards the Titans are predictably 4-0. They’re 2-4 in the others and there was nothing to brag about in beating the Browns in OT (the other was a 24-20 win over Baltimore after their bye).

So a good thing that they’re playing the Colts again. Ah the Colts, they were such an incredible team when I was first getting into this sport. But time is an unforgiving, unstoppable river just rolling along, never caring for the trials and tribulations of man, woman and otherwise.

Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) at Atlanta Falcons (6-4)

Monday 7.00am NZT

If the Falcons are gonna do this then they’re gonna have to do it the hard way. Two games against the Saints, another against each of the Vikings and Panthers to follow. Then there are two against the Buccs starting with this one and it reaaaally kinda seems like those two are must wins. That loss to the Dolphins out of their bye looks awful right now.

Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 10

Miami Dolphins (4-6) at New England Patriots (8-2)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Shout out to Jay Cutler, who did his best to make Nate Peterman feel better by throwing three picks in his first 12 passes before getting hurt and having to sub out for Matt Moore at half-time with the Fins down 20-7. Then shout out to Matt Moore for almost bringing them back, hitting Kenny Stills six times for 156 second half yards (with a 64yd TD in there) to tie things up at 20-all. But then the defence couldn’t get the stop, Ryan Fitzpatrick led the Buccs down the field for the winning field goal and the Dolphins special teams fumbled the lateral after the kick off to turn a 23-20 loss into a 30-20 loss. Ah well, worth a try.

They’re playing New England next? That’ll be that, then.

Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 9

Chicago Bears (3-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)

Monday 7.00am NZT

What’s struck me most about Carson Wentz was how well he moves. He’s a very good passer but he also has better wideouts to work with (much better than Dak had in that game), yet the way he plays on his feet is the most special thing about him. He can run the ball nicely, that’s not what I’m talking about though. The way he stays balanced as he scrambles, always looking to throw from a good foundation. The way he shuffles into the right angles for the right targets. Dude’s got quality written all over that, mate.

Then there’s that defence that they’ve put together in Philly and… [sharp intake of breath]… yeah. Beating Dallas all but wraps that division up in a tight little bundle already and that first round bye shouldn’t be too far away. If this Eagles team doesn’t win 13 games and a playoff victory from here then Doug Peterson should be sacked.

Fun fact: The Philadelphia Eagles are yet to be kept under 20 points in any game this season.

Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 13

Carolina Panthers (7-3) at New York Jets (4-6)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Important game here as far as playoff implications go… but forgive me if I’m finding it hard to get excited about this one amidst some of these other week 12 clashes.

Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 4… almost picked the upset but meh

Seattle Seahawks (6-4) at San Francisco 49ers (1-9)

Monday 10.05am NZT

As long as Russell Wilson is still playing, the Seahawks are in with a shot at beating anyone. But with the Legion of Boom broken up they’re also capable of losing to most teams, even at home. The Niners are not one of those teams but it will be interesting to see how Jimmy Garoppolo goes in his first start for… oh, no wait, they’re still doing it with CJ Beathard.

Which makes you wonder, why even trade for him if you’re in no hurry to play him? Jimmy G’ll be a free agent at the end of the year. They must be willing to extend him if they went out of their way to get him early but this seems a bit strange to me. Being 1-9 probably doesn’t help decisions.

Also Beathard wasn’t even that good last game. 19/25 for 288 yards and 2 TDs with a pick… solid numeros but it was against the Giants so let’s not overreact to the one good game he’s played all season. Although I get why you wouldn’t wanna chuck Jimmy G in with a limited knowledge of the playbook against the Seahawks even without a couple of their better defensive players. And rewarding solid play is worthwhile on a team which doesn’t have a lot of it. Okay then, fair call.

Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 7

New Orleans Saints (8-2) at Los Angeles Rams (7-3)

Monday 10.25am NZT

Thankful for this game, that’s for sure. These are the two teams that’ve busted on into contention from outta nowhere, the two best stories of the NFL season possibly. And they’re coming into this one head on and full of form. The Saints just won their eighth game in a row, coming back from 15 points in the fourth quarter like it was nothing, while the Rams dropped one 24-7 to the Vikings but are still averaging over 30 points a game.

Beyond all the stuff of past NFL Predictions there’s not a lot more to say about these two teams and how they’ve gotten here. The Saints’ young defence and running back tandem are killing it, the Rams’ hot offence has only been stopped by the Vikings and Seahawks. But there is a little context here that matters and that context is gonna swing this one in the favour of the road team on the big win streak.

Last week the Saints were clinging on against the R*dskins. Down 31-16 two thirds of the way through the final quarter… Pro-Football Reference didn’t even give them a chance at one stage…

Upon which time Drew Brees strolled up to the rostrum and completed all 12 of his next passes for 167 yards and two scores, with Alvin Kamara completing a two-pointer with barely a minute left to tie things. There was a fortunate intentional grounding call in there too which helped secure the W but that means nothing as far as Breesies greatness goes. The one things with the Saints so far had been that their QB had taken a backseat. Well, we saw here that he’s more than capable of still leading his team to victory and that, in my eyes, makes them legit Super Bowl contenders. I reckon they narrowly shade the Eagles in ability.

As for the Rams, is it okay to say they’re a bit like flat-track bullies? They scored 46 against the Colts, 41 against the Niners, beat Arizona 33-0, put 51 on the Giants and then beat the Texans 33-7. The Cards and Texans with injured QBs there. Their best games have all come in games they were expected to win easily anyway. There’s credit there for beating Dallas 35-30 and Jacksonville 27-17 but each of those teams has their issues. Realistically this current month is the defining of this team. I kinda don’t trust teams without playoff experience to beat the best sides consistently and the Rams are coming off defeat in Minnesota, are playing the Saints this week, then go to Arizona before hosting the Eagles and travelling to Seattle. There’s four really difficult games in five weeks… good luck with that.

Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 6

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3) at Arizona Cardinals (4-6)

Monday 10.25am NZT

Wildcard’s Pick: Jaguars by 3

Denver Broncos (3-7) at Oakland Raiders (4-6)

Monday 10.25pm NZT

So it continues…

Vance Joseph: “Paxton is a talent and he's our first-round pick. We're trying to change what's happened offensively, so it's simply his turn.”

It is simply his turn. Simply his turn. His turn. Simply. Simply his turn. It is.

Wow, just a glowing recommendation there. Chuck that one straight on the LinkedIn bio, bro. None of the talk about Lynch has been encouraging so far, they didn’t even cut him slack while he was injured, but to be fair to the lad he’s only made two starts so far. He even won one of them, going 49/83 for 497 yards all up, 2 TDs and 1 INT. Young quarterbacks always need room to grow and those development arcs don’t always line up with the franchise’s own plans. Give Lynch a chance, I say.

If you were wondering, Brock Osweiler’s brief stint as starting QB yielded a completion rate of 53.0%, he threw three TDs and four picks. Lost all three games. It’s crazy what a mess this team has become.

The again it’s not like the Raiders are in all that happy of a place either…

Wildcard’s Pick: Raiders by 6

Green Bay Packers (5-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)

Monday 2.30pm NZT

Ladies and gents, one more time for Antonio Brown!

The dude had ten catches for 144 yards last week, scoring three times including that ridiculous helmet catch. Marcus Mariota already got his words of critique but the Titans weren’t winning that one regardless while Antonio was out there doing his thing. He’s far and away the receiving leader for 2017. That game took him over 1000 yards for the FIFTH CONSECUTIVE SEASON and the TDs corrected the one thing that was missing from his 2017 campaign so far. He’s a machine.

Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 15

Houston Texans (4-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-5)

Tuesday 2.30pm NZT

This probably looked like a good game back when the schedules were made.

Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 3

The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. He has never thrown an NFL interception and that means 336 fewer than Brett Favre.

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