Last Week: 12-4

Season: 116-58

Washington R*dskins (5-6) at Dallas Cowboys (5-6)

Friday 2.25pm NZT

Well, that ought to just about do it. A 20 point defeat against the Falcons didn’t do it and neither did a 28 point loss to the Eagles, although they did grease the old wheels, to be honest. A third straight defeat by 20+ points though? Yup, that’s enough to give up on any season. Especially when the Cowboys can’t even seem to score in double digits now that Ezekiel Elliott’s out of the picture. Turns out he’s rather good, that lad. Makes a bit of a difference. (As do Sean Lee and Tyron Smith).

There are lots of things to pinpoint where the Cowboys’ season went wrong but when the end result is that they simply weren’t good enough then there isn’t much to argue about or be bitter over. Even with that trio of dudes they’d be struggling to beat those last three teams so no dramas that this thing’s dragging out. Same deal with the ‘Skins, they’re just not that good.

However this recent Dak Prescott slump is concerning. Most players get those second-season blues and at least Dak’s got a fair few excuses. His inability to get anything goes with Dez Bryant is also concerning. For Dez as well as for Dak, because Dez simply isn’t playing to his own level these days. Can’t get any separation going and he’s been dropping those 50/50 balls that he used to be like a magnet for. Then there’s the volume of passes that Dak seems to drag low. Better low than overthrown but still. These are all lessons to learn from… but this is not the bloke we saw as a rookie:

Dak Prescott’s last three games:

65.9% COMP | 500 YDS | 0 TD | 5 INT | 57.0 RATE

That’s a borderline terrible 5.7 yards per attempt, considering he’s still actually completing at a decent rate. There are 14 sacks in there across the three games as well. He did at least rush for one score, so there’s that. Again though, it doesn’t help when his premier receiver is playing crap – there’s not a whole lot of depth with Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams, decent players that they are.

Speaking of wide receivers, Jamison Crowder finally caught his first TD of the season against the Giants last week. That dude is quality but Kirk Cousins has a tendency to share the scores around – he’s thrown TDs to ten different players this season as well as rushing for three himself. He’s pretty overrated but there are a lot of teams that could use what Kirk Cousins has to offer. Makes you wonder, what with that franchise tag and everything…

Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 3… I never learn, do I?

Minnesota Vikings (9-2) at Atlanta Falcons (7-4)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Hey that’s three wins in a row now for the Falcons. Dudes are looking sharp again, Matt Ryan’s doing stuff, the defence is playing well… season’s back on track, baby. Although their three wins kinda fall in comparison to the Vikings who are nursing seven on the trot. Maaate. This is what you call a proper matchup.

You can condense that down even further too. There are only a couple of players who have already passed the 1000 yard receiving barrier in 2017: Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Adam Thielen & DeAndre Hopkins. Chuck in Keenan Allen who is close to topping that mark and should do so this week and there’s an argument that those are your top five WRs in the game right now.

Thielen made it clear what he was about with 157 yards in the opening game of the season, then had that massive game against Washington just to reinforce it. Meanwhile Jones had been putting a steadily good season together without really dominating like we know he can… until last week. Two score with 253 yards on 12 catches. Pro-Football Database gave him a perfect grade, Julio was untouchable.

Any game in which one of these two blokes will be on the field for basically every offensive snap is a game worth watching. The fact that they’re also two teams on a roll and plotting for postseason success only makes it sweeter. And Julio should have a lot to say about the result. How well the Falcons are able to score on this Vikings defence looks likely to be the decisive factor, though getting Devonta Freeman back helps too. There are a lot of weapons on this Falcons team, I’d be very scared of this lot if my team hadn’t already been thrashed by them.

Also, if you’re still unsure about Case Keenum, just know that he completed at 71% for 866 yards and seven TDs (as well as running for another) in the month of November, across three games. Good enough to win NFC Offensive Player of the Month. He’ll never be Tom Brady but he’s surely not Geno Smith either. Bloke’s winning games, he’s earned this starting gig.

On that topic, how about Mohamed Sanu, the best statistical quarterback in the NFL:

Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 3

Houston Texans (4-7) at Tennessee Titans (7-4)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Houston have the luxury of knowing whatever they do is worthless this season but that their team’s still in a good shape to win plenty of games in 2018 once Deshaun Watson returns to fitness. So lucky them, they’re not gonna defend that division title but the future is a lot brighter than pretty much every other team in their position. I’d rather be a Texans fan than a Jets, Dolphins or Buccaneers fan, the other three teams on four wins.

The Titans, on the other hand. Lots of preseason predictions that they’d be in for a big one and they’re still on pace to win 10 games, assuming they beat teams like Houston. That’s quality stuff but they haven’t been the team that was anticipated. They should be a dominant rushing team… but they’re middling in most of those major stats other than rush TDs – so they can punch ‘em in at least. DeMarco Murray’s not been very good. Derrick Henry helps but Murray’s better than this.

No dramas defensively… however Marcus Mariota. What’s up with Marcus?

The rushing scores mean that his 9 passing TDs don’t look as awful as they do at first sight but that doesn’t account for the 12 picks. Four came in one game vs Pittsburgh, two came last week vs Indy. Six picks in two weeks. The team’s had offensive turnovers in eight games in a row and, oh yeah, last time they played Houston they coughed it up five times. They don’t score enough points to not protect the ball better and although they kept their dude upright against the Colts (who suck), they gave up 12 sacks in the previous three weeks. I don’t like the look of any of that. The overwhelming advantage that they have is an easy fixture list that comes from playing in the AFC South. The hiding against the Steelers seems like more of a hint as to what they’ll be facing in the playoffs, however.

Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 8

Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at New York Jets (4-7)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Whatever’s going on in Kansas City, it’s just depressing now.

Wildcard’s Pick: [sharp intake of breath]… Chiefs by 1…

Denver Broncos (3-8) at Miami Dolphins (4-7)

Monday 7.00am NZT

YEAH, SMASH HIM!!!

Wildcard’s Pick: Dolphins by who even cares

Indianapolis Colts (3-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Do you think Blaine Gabbert had a bone to pick playing against the Jags last week?

Bruce Arians sure had some nice things to say about Gabby and, honestly, there’s not even much difference between him and The Bort. That they investing in Bortles and not Gabbert is kind of weird given what there was to see last week. The Jags have such a great team but they’re handcuffed to this awful quarterback who does occasionally show signs of very competent play… only to then throw a mind-numbingly stupid interception or something.

The Jaguars are winning despite him. Beat the Colts, as they should, and the worst they can fear is 8-8. They’re doing it the hard way, but then all good defensive teams are the same. The Vikings aren’t blowing teams out every week either but they are getting the job done. And, yeah, I dunno if it’s been mentioned before so here goes: THAT JAGUARS SECONDARY IS INCREDIBLE. I’d bet Andrew Luck has nightmares about them and he isn’t even playing.

Wildcard’s Pick: Jags by 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7) at Green Bay Packers (5-6)

Monday 7.00am NZT

It’s almost ironic watching the games last week and seeing Aaron Rodgers pop up on an insurance ad, selling accident cover and all that. I can think of at least one franchise that needed a bit of insurance and all they had instead was Brett Hundley. Who, to be fair, made a couple plays against the Steelers… but they still lost. And Aaron Rodgers might still come back before the playoffs but they’re a few wins short of getting there without him.

Let’s see, say they win this. Then they beat the Browns. After that they play the Panthers, Vikings and Lions. Not sure that they can go any better than 8-8 and I also don’t think they even get to that. Even money won’t get you into the playoffs, chief. 

And anyway I don’t even think they’ll win this game. The BUccs have been competing lately, plus Jameis Winston is back and I have to think that now he’s a little healthier he’ll play a lot better than he was in the past. Difficult circumstances at Lambeau but the Packers aren’t much these days. Lost five outta six.

Wildcard’s Pick: Buccs by 6

Detroit Lions (6-5) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5)

Monday 7.00am NZT

People keep telling me how bad Matt Stafford and Joe Flacco are playing yet both these teams have winning records here. The Ravens get it done with their defence while the Lions are more about taking opportunities, winning close games against teams they expect to beat. They’ve lost to the Falcons, Panthers, Saints, Steelers and Vikings so all good teams that they’ve fallen too (the Falcons weren’t at their best back then but they also barely won that with a controversial late call). Beat the Cards, Giants, Vikes (14-7 in week four), Packers, Browns and Bears so again all teams they planned on beating. That was the Vikes before their winning streak and the Packers after Rodgers was hurt.

Matt Stafford: 62.5% COMP | 3010 YDS | 21 TD | 6 INT | 97.3 RATE

Joe Flacco: 65.2% COMP | 1875 YDS | 9 TD | 11 INT | 74.2 RATE

Yeah… Flacco’s shocking. I dunno what happened to him, he won a Super Bowl once upon a time and back then it didn’t feel as outrageous as that fact does in 2017. It’s worth adding that neither team has much of a running game to deal with. Like, Ameer Abdullah has been abysmal this season. He’s run 150 times at 3.4 yards per attempt. Almost as many fumbles (2) as touchdown runs (3). The Ravens got similar trash from Terrance West and Javorius Allen… although Alex Collins seems like a find. Having said all that, this is not a main window stream, this is a redzone alternate game.

Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 4

New England Patriots (9-2) at Buffalo Bills (6-5)

Monday 7.00am NZT

That guy’s a nutcase… but he’s bloody good. Just had his 16th multi-TD game and he may not have gotten a massive amount of spotlight this season, what with the Patriots just chilling at 9-2, but 702 yards with 7 scores, averaging 15.3 yards per catch as a tight end… this dude’s still bossing things.

By the way, Tyrod Taylor came back and led the Bills to a win over the Chiefs to have them back sitting in the playoffs as things stand. Nothing fantastic but few mistakes and enough solid quarterbackery to win. There’s no competition between him and Nathan Peterman and yet Sean McDermott continues to be weird about his quarterbacks. Obviously Taylor won’t be there next season but this team could be off to the postseason, sometimes these jokers get too swept up in the long term to take advantage of the short term.

So the last couple weeks have been rather rough on Alex Smith’s MVP chances. Drew Brees and Matt Ryan have left it too late. Russell Wilson has been great but he’s falling off the side of the boat thanks to the injuries around him – the MVP award is a narrative award as well as a stats one. A few heroic victories in the last few weeks and he’s got a chance but there are two guys way out in front right now and one will be playing in this game.

QB Uno: 60.2% COMP | 2657 YDS | 28 TD | 5 INT | 104.0 RATE

QB Dos: 68.4% COMP | 3374 YDS | 26 TD | 3 INT | 111.7 RATE

Obviously Uno is Carson Wentz and Dos is Tom Brady. 40 year old Tom Brady. The same guy who just won the Super Bowl and could’ve been MVP last season if he’d played the first quarter of the season but who cares because he beat the actual MVP in the Super Bowl. I know the odds are leaning towards Wentz right now with the big winning streak and the happy vibes coming out of Philly… but look at the numbers again and explain why Brady doesn’t win this? He’s got less to work with at the Patriots, he’s got a big lead for the best passer rating in 2017, he’s Tom Brady… the evidence stacks up.

Wildcard’s MVP Ranks After 12 Weeks:

1. Tom Brady (NEP)
2. Carson Wentz (PHI)
3. Russell Wilson (SEA)
4. Antonio Brown (PIT)
5. Todd Gurley (LAR)
6. Philip Rivers (LAC)
7. Le’Veon Bell (PIT)
8. Drew Brees (NOS)
9. Kirk Cousins (WAS)
10. Alvin Kamara (NOS)

Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by whatever it takes

San Francisco 49ers (1-10) at Chicago Bears (3-8)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Wildcard’s Pick: Bears by 6

Cleveland Browns (0-11) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-6)

Monday 10.05am NZT

Man, forget about just making the playoffs – the Chargers are gonna win this damned division! When you think about those Broncos and Dolphins games at the start of things which, honestly, they blew (missed late field goals both times – remember Younghoe Koo?) then even that losing record doesn’t look so bad. They should be 7-4 and here’s a sitter of a win to follow. But the way that Philip Rivers and the rest of them are playing at the moment, there are only a handful of teams in better form. Old Man Rivers hurled three touchdowns and 434 passing yards against Dallas while completing at over 80%. That Cowboys’ secondary has been poor most of the season but even still, that’s some prime Rivers there.

Plus between Rivers, Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen they’ve got a positional trio that stands up there with any other one in the league short of the Pittsburgh Ben/Bell/Brown phenomena. Add in a defence that’s giving up fewer than 20 points per game with the tied-fifth most takeaways and the Chargers are very much for real. Weird to be saying that about a team with a losing record but the Chargers records are always a bit skewed by their tendency to lose ridiculous games.

Hmm… did I just jinx them into giving Cleveland their first win of 2017…?

Wildcard’s Pick: Nah… Chargers by 14

New York Giants (2-9) at Oakland Raiders (5-6)

Monday 10.25am NZT

Haha, oh here we go. You though the Giants couldn’t sink any lower? You thought that Ben McAdoo would be the obvious scapegoat for all this? You thought that legacies meant something in the NFL, that two Super Bowl rings earn you a little job security? Hell, Joe Flacco’s still starting and he’s only got one. Nope, the G-Men know no limitations when it comes to scraping the barrel of madness.

Let alone the fact that he’d played 210 consecutive starts in one of the most injury-prone leagues in the world. No, mate. This was not cool. This was, as Philip Rivers said: ‘Pathetic’. Treating a franchise legend like that I inexcusable, no matter how badly the team’s been playing. And Eli’s been average… but look at what he’s working with. You’ve won two games all season, you’re not resurrecting this thing from here and you’re definitely not doing it with Geno Smith. Yeah, the Giants need a new quarterback to take them into the future but at the end of the season they’re still gonna need a quarterback because Geno is blatantly bad at this stuff, it’s been proven. So you humiliate a guy who’s number will be hanging in the stadium soon enough? Pathetic.

Wildcard’s Pick: Raiders by 10

Carolina Panthers (8-3) at New Orleans Saints (8-3)

Monday 10.25am NZT

The fact that these two teams have identical records, seriously. But nah here we are three quarters of a season through things and the Panthers, a team that lost 17-3 to the Bears a few weeks back and managed to beat Buffalo early on with only 9 points are equally as well placed as the Saints who only just lost their eight game winning streak. Although… not quite as well unless they win this game since the Saints did them in last time.

Curious one here, the Falcons will enjoy seeing one of them lose, that’s for certain. The Saints still have to play Atlanta twice so the Panthers going into New Orleans and winning, a fifth win in a row if it happens, would be massive for them. Gotta actually do it first though. Looks like Lattimore might not play for NO after missing the Rams game but it’s stopping Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara that’ll make the difference. Cam Newton doesn’t need a rookie superstar cornerback to stop him, he’s not exactly playing well all on his own already. We know there’s room to improve but we ain’t seeing it. Usual disclaimed: I think he’s more hurt than he lets on. He always is.

Cam Newton: “It's the most important game I've ever played because it's the next game. Nothing different. Just like last week was the most important game. That's been my mentality, that's been everybody's mentality and that's how we're going about it.”

I like that mentality. That’ll win you games. And there’s definitely a pondering that the Saints, if you stop them playing fast and loose, are vulnerable. A team like the Panthers have all the ingredients to rough them up but I just don’t think they’re playing well enough, tbh. Newton was horrifically bad the first time these teams played. He didn’t get much of a preseason and he’s much better right now but that’s largely because he’s got his legs back. His arm hasn’t gotten much better at all, outside of the four touchdowns he threw against Miami. When you go 11/28 passing against the Jets then nobody in New Orleans is too worried about that.

Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 7

Los Angeles Rams (8-3) at Arizona Cardinals (5-6)

Monday 10.25am NZT

Gotta be honest, I really did think the Saints would beat the Rams. Watching that game I was reminded how good this Rams defensive line always was even while they were struggling in St Louis with bad quarterback play and even worse coaching. Their offence has suddenly exploded with Sean McVay’s arrival and Todd Gurley’s turnaround has been incredible. But that defence still has Aaron Donald. Alec Ogletree and Connor Barwin are making plays at linebacker. Mark Barron too, he has 63 tackles and three interceptions.

I’m starting to think that perhaps the Rams will be genuine and immediate playoff threats. That’s not always the case in that first, breakout season. The Cowboys last year, for example. Or the Seahawks in Wilson’s rookie season (two veeery contrasting second seasons for those two examples).

Yo and while Bruce Arians is talking about Blaine Gabbert as a possible starter, bear in mind that he’s made two starts this season and thrown 5 TDs to 3 INTs at 61.1% completion on a team that has Larry Fitzgerald still out there balling. It’s better than Drew Stanton, sure. But this guy is a backup QB at best. Plus Arians is the only reason he’s doing what he has done, imagine him with a bad coach.

Just quickly on Larry Fitzgerald, he’s 34 years old and catching passes from a possibly washed Carson Palmer (there’s no way Arians even considers Blaine > Carson back in 2015), Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert and he has 72 catches in 11 games, the third most in the NFL. 780 yards with 4 scores. 220 more yards in five games and he’ll have his ninth 1000+ yard receiving season. Over 15,000 yards rec in his career, 108 touchdown catches. 1197 catches overall. Appreciate this while you can.

All Time Rec Yards:

1. Jerry Rice – 22,895
2. Terrell Owens – 15,934
3. Randy Moss – 15,292
4. Isaac Bruce – 15,208
5. Larry Fitzgerald – 15,169

All Time Receptions:

1. Jerry Rice – 1549
2. Tony Gonzalez – 1325
3. Larry Fitzgerald – 1197
4. Jason Witten – 1139
5. Marvin Harrison – 1102

(Needs another 20 TDs to crack the top five though, he’s way back in eighth as one of ten fellas ever to crack the century of touchdown receptions).

Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 6

Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) at Seattle Seahawks (7-4)

Monday 2.30pm NZT

Then there was this game. Potentially one of the games of the season as a hobbled Seahawks team looks to maintain their incredible home advantage against a rampaging Eagles team that boasts one of the most complete rosters out there in recent memory and also the small matter of the MVP favourite.

Beat Seattle and even I’d have to admit that Carson Wentz takes a massive step forwards in the race against TB12 but the Seahawks cannot afford to drop another game in a hurry either. They’ve still got to play the Jaguars, Rams, Cowboys and Cardinals after this and while they’ll be favoured in at least three of those there also are zero easy games there. Especially not for a team missing half its vaunted defence and with a quarterback overcoming an inept running game and average offensive line to do more or less everything on offence.

Plus if Dallas loses to Washington in TNF then the Eagles will already have clinched the NFC East. With five games left to play. As good as they’ve been so far, this season will take a big swing if they lose early in the playoffs and there’s always that worry that the team that clinches too early eases off the gas down the stretch and doesn’t get that intensity back in time. Call it the Green Bay Packers Syndrome – Aaron Rodgers is always leading this team to late-season streaks to surge on into the playoffs and then turning them into the hot, in-form, dangerous opponent that usually topples a division leader. At a guess, that team looks like the Atlanta Falcons this season. Them and the LA Chargers in the AFC.

This is definitely a bitter Cowboys fan pick, as much as I do respect the Eagles’ work this season, but I kinda like the Chip-On-The-Shoulder prime time Russell Wilson ‘Y’all Forgot About ME!?’ potential of this game. Plus I reckon the Eagles are gonna be better for loss about now anyway.

Hey congrats to Prince Carson on the wedding announcement too.

Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 2

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-6)

Tuesday 2.30pm NZT

What more is there to say about the Steelers? Nothing, really. What is there at all to say about the Bengals? Even less. Enjoy your NFL folks. Tell Eli Manning that I’m sorry about all this.

Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 9

The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. But he’s available to work the public relations office for the New York Giants if Mr Mara is willing to extend the invitation. Prepare for a heel turn for the ages. You thought dropping Eli was bad? Maaaate, just wait.

Give a bit of clickety-clack on an ad if you’re a regular with the NFL Picks each week. Maybe hit us up on twitter or facebook too and chuck the odd query/request in there.