Last Week: 11-5

Season: 146-76

Indianapolis Colts (3-11) at Baltimore Ravens (8-6)

Sunday 10.30am NZT

Merry Christmas, season’s greetings, feliz navidad and all that. Time for some holiday NFL! First we’ve got a couple games on Xmas Eve followed by a bunch on Christmas Day itself and then a pair on Boxing Day to close out the week. No Friday game hence the later column to get it out closer to the games that matter. She’s all go, amigo.

Christmas for the Colts means knowing there’s only one more game to have to play in their horror campaign. One game closer to Andrew Luck being fit again (assuming he’s ever fit again). One game closer to something changing. One game closer to a win.

Christmas for the Ravens means knowing that there’s a playoff spot there for the taking. These Ravens? Joe Flacco’s 2017 Ravens? Yeah mate, get used to the idea because they’re gonna be there. It’s barely even a question at this point. Thanks to the intricacies of the system they’re currently on the outside looking in but win this game and they’ll have enough games in common with the Bills to go ahead of them on strength of schedule – even if the Bills beat the Patriots at Foxborough. Considering that almost all the Ravens defeats have come against playoff-competitive teams (Steelers x2, Titans, Vikings, Jaguars & Bears – spot the odd one out!) it’s a little harder to see them winning games in January but they have the Bengals next, a team they shutout in week one, and two wins from two will be enough. The Ravens are going to the playoffs.

Deservedly too. Forget about the 3-4 start and look at what the Ravens have done since. They’re 5-2 and those two defeats have come against teams with 21 combined wins and by a total of four points. Went down by three to the Jags and one to the Steelers. In that time they have a points differential of +107, they have a turnover differential of +14. Their quarterback has only thrown 14 touchdowns all season, 23 QBs can top that including Aaron Rodgers who has two more in half as many starts, but they’re killing bad teams out here and staying close with the big fellas.

Fear the Ravens! Harbingers of sacks and interceptions! Omens of doom and defeat!

Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 17

Minnesota Vikings (11-3) at Green Bay Packers (7-7)

Sunday 2.30pm NZT

I mean, it’s not a secret. Aaron Rodgers said he wasn’t gonna come in and save the Packers season all by himself and then he didn’t. Not his fault or anything, if you’re relying on a superhuman effort from your injured quarterback then you don’t really deserve to be there. The terrifying thing was that Aaron Rodgers actually is capable of that kind of effort… but thankfully the Panthers were too good, pretty much ending the Packers playoff hopes right there. Thus Aaron Rodgers is back on IR roughly seven days after he was activated from it. So much for that then.

Rodgers was way off his prime form. Three interceptions and plenty of shaky passes in there too. But it was a gamble they had to take and a gamble that’s ended at the appropriate time by shutting him down. Ah well, so it goes.

The Vikings secured this division last week by doing what needed to be done against the Bengals. Now they get to close out by doing the same to the Packers and Bears. Time to chill and refocus, there’s a home playoff game coming up in Minnesota. Doing it for Prince and Bob Dylan. Doing it for Kevin Garnett. Doing it for Brett Favre, who was the last Viking QB to win a playoff game.

And the best thing about it all is that we might get to see this dude throw a few passes over the last two games, Teddy Bridgewater finally back after two career threatening injuries. What a dude. What a journey.

Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 6

Los Angeles Rams (10-4) at Tennessee Titans (8-6)

Monday 7.00am NZT

The Titans lost back to back to the Cardinals and 49ers, now they’ve gotta beat at least one, probably two, of the Rams and Jaguars (both at home, thankfully) if they’re to cling on to that last playoff spot. The way they’ve been playing though, 8-8 looks the most likely outcome and they shan’t be invited to the big dance with that form. The signs were there already, they can’t get any offence going at all, not since the first month or two. They haven’t passed 350 yards of total offence in a game since they beat the Bengals 24-20 in week ten, it’s been awful to watch.

The Rams, on the other hand, they average 366 yards per game and that’s with a quality defensive unit that turns them the ball over in convenient areas. You can’t speak often enough of what Sean McVay has done with this team. He’s made Todd Gurley amazing again. That guy, man, he had 151 yards on the ground with three scores, plus another 28 on three catches for one more score. AND HE DID THIS AGAINST THE SEAHAWKS. IN SEATTLE!!! Woulda got more but they barely even needed him in the second half.

Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 9

Buffalo Bills (8-6) at New England Patriots (11-3)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Game of the season candidate in Pittsburgh last week. A 2017 classic between Ben Roehtlisberger and Tom Brady – amongst all the terrible crap of the last year or two, imagine being able to at least tell your former self ten years ago that we’d still be seeing these games in 2017. Big plays on all four sides of things, defence and offence, Patriots and Steelers – Martavis Bryant’s one handed TD catch on the brink of half-time was insane! Gronk’s catch with a minute left as well. The game was never beyond eight points and there was comebacks for both sides. First the bloody Pats going ahead and then JuJu Smith-Schuster’s massive completion at the end…

... Which is when the controversy emerged. The overturned touchdown from Jesse James, it looked like a score on every replay until they slowed it right down and spoiled it. Argue over the football move thing, argue over the completing to the ground thing, argue over the bloody inflation of the ball if you want. The rule is stupid and that’s the problem… but the NFL doesn’t really care because it sparks conversation about the sport. Same as Dez Bryant’s catch back in the day. Oh and then Big Ben got picked off after a fake spike and pretty much blamed the coaches for the call.

All that hype and drama and we end up in the same place: the New England Patriots won. Now the Pats probably get home field through the playoffs, although the Steelers should feel that the disadvantage of that will be cancelled out by a fit Antonio Brown. Still, advantage Patriots, as usual.

Now time to kill off the Bills’ playoff hopes. They’ll appreciate it after all this.

Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 7

Cleveland Browns (0-14) at Chicago Bears (4-10)

Monday 7.00am NZT

So the Browns are playing the Steelers next week. That’s their final game and, hey, maybe they get lucky and Pittsburgh rests a few of their main men. Ben Roethlisberger gets to sit one out with the second seed already guaranteed. The loss to the Patriots kinda makes that the probability so perhaps they don’t risk their best guys ahead of the playoffs. Or they only give Ben and Bell a half to keep them active going into the first round bye. I dunno though, the Steelers lost to the Jaguars who can still catch them, at least before this week, so don’t bother keeping the fingers crossed.

Most likely is that this is the game. If the Browns are to avoid the most Brownsiest of fates, the course that they seem to have been running for the last decade, taking it to its inevitable 0-16 conclusion… then they’ll need to win in Chicago against the Bears. Not the toughest prospect. They even beat them 25-0 in preseason (which counts for exactly nothing but the Browns will take whatever omens they can find at this stage).

I’d forgotten that the Browns have the Texans’ first round pick next year too, so at least that’s one thing that’s working out for them. Should be two top fivers and that means they’ll definitely get to add at least one top prospect who isn’t a quarterback destined to fail by their reverse midas touch. Myles Garrett’s worked out pretty well this season, another couple of him and there’s something to work with. Clearly the Browns just need to be one of those teams that wins despite their QB, like the Texans used to be. Or the Ravens in 2017.

Time for a Mitch Trubisky update… he threw three picks against the Lions last week. Decent numbers otherwise but you get intercepted three times and that’s probably a terrible night. I dunno though, I’ve been more impressed with him as he’s opened things up. Doesn’t take much to see he’s not winning the Bears many games here but he also doesn’t have a whole lot to work with other than Jordan Howard and, after all, he’s a rookie. Look at what Jared Goff and Carson Wentz have been doing in their second year and remember that rookie’s almost never do what Dak Prescott did last year, or Russell Wilson before him, or Ben Roethlisberger before him. Same applies for DeShone Kizer… if he gets the chance again.

Hey, speaking of the Browns... who's seen the infamous Star Wars Christmas Special? It's every bit as bad as they say it is.

Wildcard’s Pick: Bears by 4

Atlanta Falcons (8-5) at New Orleans Saints (10-4)

Monday 7.00am NZT

There’s too much at stake here to even write about.

Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 1

Detroit Lions (8-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-9)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Borderline my favourite development in this league for years has been the new emphasis on post-touchdown celebrations. The Steelers are incredible at them, going all in on these choreographed moves and routines. The Saints’ defence love a good photoshoot. But the Lions went deeper last week with a locally inspired celebration of their own.

Shout out to the Rockettes, baby. Radio City Music Hall Christmas Spectacular! And who orchestrated this beauty of a celebration? Keegan Michael-Key from Key & Peele, naturally. Boogie Down Brown, Celebration Expert. This is so awesome. 

The football game? Yeah, okay, I’m getting to that. Lions should win, Lions are better than they get credit for. It’d be nice if they didn’t but the Bengals are pants so that’s that.

Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9) at Carolina Panthers (10-4)

Monday 7.00am NZT

The Buccs are so annoying they’re the one average team in an otherwise fantastic division which may well put three teams into the playoffs but it’d be a lot easier for everyone else if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could win a few games against the Falcons, Saints and Panthers. Well, the Falcons swept them pretty easy. Now they get the Panthers and Saints, all three in a row to close their season. All three opponents scrapping for this division and the wildcard places below. They say the teams out of contention love playing spoiler and who better to spoil but your biggest rivals?

Only problem being that the Buccs are nowhere near as good as those other three. Nine wins last season and a happy stint on Hard Knocks got people talking them up but, nah, this has just been ugly. Jameis Winston’s been mostly rubbish, no sugar coating that. They don’t look like they have any pass rush and they definitely don’t have any offensive rush. Can’t convert on third down, can’t do bugger all. They’re worth those four wins and nothing more, the four quarterbacks they’ve beaten are: Mike Glennon, Eli Manning, Josh McCown and Jay Cutler/Matt Moore.

It’s the Winston thing that gets me the most because against the Falcons he had his best effort of the season. 27/35 passing for 299 yards and 3 TDs without a pick. That’s the quarterback he can be but not the guy he’s often been. I’m gonna give him the benefit and say that it’s largely down to that injury he carried and probably still carries crossed with a relatively awful standard of talent aroud him. Not many guys are leading these Buccs to glory so Winston can slide for now.

On the other hand, how good have the Panthers been lately? Cam Newton turned up to play against Green Bay, mate. I reckon that’s as good as I’ve seen him all year. Four touchdown passes and plenty of movement, when he’s on his game like that the Panthers rise all the way back up into contender status… particularly with that defence. The seven turnovers these last two weeks are big but a lot of them are coming from the pressure they apply up front, forcing dodgy passes (and also from Aaron Rogers playing at, like, 60% fitness). Somewhere along the way the switch was flipped. The Panthers are playing mean again, I love it.

And who was it that got the sack that pretty much ended that game and the Packers’ season along with it? Julius Peppers, of course. It almost looked like he held back a bit so as not to crush his old teammate as well. What a nice bloke. By the way, he’s 37 years old and just got to double-digit sacks for the season, only Bruce Smith and Kevin Greene have had 10+ sacks aged 37 or older. Both are in the Hall of Fame, as will Peppers be some day.

Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by… 20 points, sure

Miami Dolphins (6-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-6)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Biggest difference between the Chiefs these last two weeks and the Chiefs while they were losing is that they had three takeaways against the Raiders, four against the Chargers and zero in any of the four previous games. Second biggest difference is that Kareem Hunt had 116 yards with a TD against the Raiders and 155 with a TD against the Chargers after not having a 100+ rush game since week five (when they went 5-0). Force turnovers and run the ball effectively, it’s a simple strategy and easier said than done but it can win you games and save your season. With the Dolphins and Broncos to follow (and with the Titans stumbling) it looks like the Chiefs oughta make the playoffs after all.

Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 9

Denver Broncos (5-9) at Washington R*dskins (6-8)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Terrible game. Ruining Christmas. Moving on.

Wildcard’s Pick: Bleepskins by 7

Los Angeles Chargers (7-7) at New York Jets (5-9)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Well… just don’t start 0-4 and it won’t matter if you have an off day on the road against a division rival, will it? Simple logic, to be honest. 

Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 10

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) at San Francisco 49ers (4-10)

Monday 10.05am NZT

Every now and then The Bort goes and does something impressive and there were some genuinely great throws last week. You’ve gotta throw well to beat Seattle in Seattle… so he did. Ten wins and a first playoff spot since 2007 already in the bag, it’s been quite the season here, obviously starting with the trademarked Best Secondary in Football but followed closely by a few interesting receivers, a strong running game, some defensive playmakers up front and a supposedly useless quarterback who is starting to play to scheme and everything.

Of course, the Texans aren’t offering much at this stage with all their injuries. But he beat Seattle the week before and add in the thrashing of Indy before that and in his last three starts Bort is doing plenty of… well, he’s absolutely flippin’ dominating if you look at the stats! Makes for a curious combination with another fellow who’s had three very good weeks lately, albeit also against two outta three poor oppositions… all six games were wins by the way.

Blake Bortles, Wks 13-15:

71.43% COMP | 903 YDS | 7 TD | 0 INT | 128.6 RATE

Jimmy Garoppolo, Wks 13-15:

68.14% COMP | 1008 YDS | 2 TD | 2 INT | 94.6 RATE

The stats don’t fully do Jimmy G justice, the 49ers have been scoring on these long and convincing drives but getting it done in the red zone has been an issue, meaning the TD numbers are shrunken by field goal attempts. He’s only at 53% completion in the RZ, suggesting that things aren’t as fluid as they could be with the short field. Name a 49ers receiver and that probably explains why. But give him room to work with and he’s brilliant, completing at 63% in third down passes. Blake Bortles’ third down numbers for the year are at 58% with four picks and that’s when almost half of his sacks have occurred. What’s crazy about Garoppolo is that pressure doesn’t seem to faze him as much, hence why he’s leading his team to all these close, comeback victories.

Not that he knows any different, he’s never lost an NFL game as a starter. The last player to win all five of his first career starts? Ben Roethlisberger. And things turned out pretty well for that guy in his career.

Wildcard’s Pick: Jags by 3, he’s gotta lose eventually

Seattle Seahawks (8-6) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6)

Monday 10.25am NZT

Loser goes home, no more last chances here. And it really looks like each team is going in the opposite direction as well… as if that means anything in the NFL. Still, from the moment I officially wrote off the Dallas Cowboys they haven’t lost. Got hard-earned but comfortable enough wins over Washington and NYG and now snuck past the Raiders in a game they should really have won by more. Blew a couple chances and then needed a Derek Carr fumble into the endzone to complete the victory. The stupidest rule in a sport full of stupid rules but whatever, gotta take ‘em all as they come. I think it was Jourdan Lewis dropped an easy interception earlier in the possession anyway.

But yeah, look at Dallas with three wins on the trot and now Ezekiel Elliott is back to help them get the last two. Chances are they’re one win short of where they need to be – close defeats to the Packers and Rams are gonna cost them – but if they beat the Seahawks then they’ll still be in contention going into the final week. Just a matter of other results going their way, specifically whoever loses between the Saints and Falcons would need to lose again in week 17.

I think what needs to happen is either Detroit loses one of its last two games (CIN & GBP) along with one of the NFC South teams losing twice as well (basically whoever loses between the Saints and Falcons needs to lose again next week, most likely) or Dallas needs both Carolina and New Orleans to lose both games. Like I said, probably a win shy of where they needed to be. Best chance here is the Falcons losing twice – vs Saints & Panthers – because that takes the pesky Buccs out of the equation.

Come on though, I’m burying the lede here… how about that first down by a piece of paper last week!? Looked like a harsh spot to be fair but I’m glad I got to witness the weirdest bit of ingenuity by a ref in a long time in this sport. Interpretive thinking really isn’t something that’s encouraged amongst American sporting referees but here we were…

Unfortunately the piece of paper is now a thing of the past and not only because of the digital revolution. Instead because of the sadsacks at the NFL ruining all our fun.

Laaame.

So… do we write off the Seahawks now? Their playoff chances are almost identical to the Cowboys but they’re coming in off of consecutive losses. Went down 30-24 to the Jags and then imploded 42-7 at home against the Rams. The Seahawks are as resilient as anyone but that simply felt like a season-ender. Russell Wilson had troubles, ending his MVP chops for this year. Nobody could run the ball at all, the defence had no way to stop Todd Gurley… that was a murder scene, the victim being their 2017 season. Gotta put ‘em out now like an old Christmas tree.

Unless they beat Dallas, which they very well might, and then stranger things have happened. It’s the goddamned NFL after all. And it’s Christmas time so, yeah.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 5

New York Giants (2-12) at Arizona Cardinals (6-8)

Monday 10.25am NZT

Another one to offend the season, don’t bother. Cleanse your holiday spirit by avoiding it.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cardies by 6

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3) at Houston Texans (4-10)

Tuesday 10.30am NZT

All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs. All I want for Christmas is for Antonio Brown to be fit for the playoffs.

Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 14

Oakland Raiders (6-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (12-2)

Tuesday 2.30pm NZT

Told ya Nick Foles wouldn’t be so bad. Four touchdowns for no picks with 63.2% completion, throwing for 237 yards. Nothing special but he put points on the board and that’ll win you games. It did against the Giants. The only problem was that their defence went to sleep and without Carson Wentz that seriously cannot be happening. Still, they locked up the division and with it a first round bye. Last thing left to play for is the right to avoid ever having to play in Minnesota and that’ll be all sorted with a win here against a Raiders team that still has the slightest of chances of making the postseason. But not really.

This is what would need to happen for the Raiders to get there:

• New England beats Buffalo (Week 16)
• LA Rams beat Tennessee (W16)
• Miami beats Kansas City (W16)
• Oakland beats Philadelphia (W16)
• Indianapolis beats Baltimore (W16)
• Baltimore beats Cincinnati (W17)
• Jacksonville beats Tennessee (W17)
• Miami beats Buffalo (W17)
• Oakland beats LA Chargers (W17)

Nine different games all need those exact outcomes for the Raiders to get there. I’d say the hard part would be them winning their two remaining games but that’s not even gonna matter once the Ravens beat the Colts in the literal first game of the week. FiveThirtyEight puts the probability of all that happening at 0.025%. Hey but if Santa can deliver presents to every house on the planet within 24 hours then why not cross your fingers for a Christmas miracle?

Wildcard’s Pick: Because it’s not gonna happen – Eagles by 4

The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. Come they told him. Pa rum pum pum pum.