Last Week: 11-5

Season: 127-63

New Orleans Saints (9-3) at Atlanta Falcons (7-5)

Friday 2.25pm NZT

Big drama coming at you from the very start. New Orleans just made a major step towards the playoffs by beating the Panthers while the Falcons got stopped by the Vikings and now they go head to head on a short week. And they play again on Christmas Eve. Maaate, this is what it’s all about.

Matty Ice is coming off a rare bad night against Minnesota. They’ll do that to plenty of quarterbacks, in fact they already have with only the Bills and Jaguars conceding fewer passing TDs. It was actually the first game this season in which Ryan didn’t throw a touchdown pass – more fuel to the fire that the reigning MVP’s been a lot better than many people realise – although he also hasn’t thrown more than two in a game in 2017 which is his main problem. He’s playing well but not cashing in, and it might take a final quarter boost from Matty Ice to get this playoff push over the line.

Drew Brees knows all about that except he’s doing it voluntarily this year with that running game going wild. He’s had two scoreless games already – both wins – and this is the dude who owns the record for the most consecutive games with a TD pass of 54. Oh and by the way…

• Matt Ryan on TNF: 5-2 W/L | 70.0% COMP | 16 TD | 0 INT | 113.8 RATE
• Drew Brees on TNF: 5-5 W/L | 67.2% COMP | 13 TD | 12 INT | 86.5 RATE

Marshon Lattimore is assumed to return here, Mark Ingram will be fine to play. But those Thursday night numbers from Matt Ryan make this thing quite complicated.

Wildcard’s Pick: Arghh… Sai-… no the Fal-… umm… let’s say Saints by 3... dammit.

Green Bay Packers (6-6) at Cleveland Browns (0-12)

Monday 7.00am NZT

My worst nightmare right now would be that the Packers sneak back into the playoff positions just in time for Aaron Rodgers to return to action. Hate seeing injured players, especially one as good as Rodgo, but it’s also been nice in a crowded NFC picture to not have to worry about the fact that whoever earns that hard fought playoff home game against the Packers is gonna see their season go up in a 31-14 smoke regardless because of the this goddamn guy.

He’s already back in practice now and looking sharp, at least according to his teammates (who don’t have any reason to lie… right?). He hasn’t been cleared for contact yet and needs a scan next week to check if the collarbone is fully healed yet so there’ll be no funny business here. Good thing they’re playing the Browns then and won’t need any. But he’s eligible to be reactivated before next week and after beating the Buccs (against my pick) last week and supposing they beat the winless Browns then that’ll mean 7-6 with three games left: Panthers (H), Vikings (A) and Lions (H). None of which are games I’d back Brett Hundley in but all three are winnable with Rodgers, even a rusty Rodgers. I don’t like where this is going, folks.

As for the Browns, there has been one 0-16 team in history and that’s the 2008 Detroit Lions. Several other teams have logged 0’s as well but not in a 16-game season. Cleveland has this game followed by a trip to Baltimore and then a home-stand against the Bears and Steelers to salvage that rare and elusive W.

Christmas Eve against the Bears might be the best-worst game of the season. Mitch Trubisky unable/unallowed to throw more than 150 yards… DeShone Kizer getting intercepted trying to hurl it forwards… Myles Garrett being a beastly man… the score stuck at 6-6 going into the two-minute warning… I can’t even wait.

Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 6

Detroit Lions (6-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-8)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Okay so the Buccs are done, not too bothered about them. Picked ‘em to beat Green Bay last week and they didn’t get it done so hard to see what else to worry about with that lot this week. Meanwhile the Lions probably won’t make the playoffs – right now it looks like the Seahawks and either Falcons/Panthers will get the two wildcards. But that could get shuffled up with some curious results this week. It could happen, you never know.

Here’s the NFC picture…

Division Leaders

• Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)
• Los Angeles Rams (9-3)
• Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
• New Orleans Saints (9-3)

The Rest of Them…

• Seattle Seahawks (8-4)
• Carolina Panthers (8-4)
• Atlanta Falcons (7-5)
• Detroit Lions (6-6)
• Green Bay Packers (6-6)
• Dallas Cowboys (6-6)

Philly and Minny each only need one more win to book those divisions and then focus will turn towards getting those first round byes. The Rams and Saints have some tricky games left so I expect that’s what we see happen. Seattle could still catch the Rams despite their issues and the Saints are a long way from guaranteed that spot either. Dallas and Detroit aren’t really good enough to win out from here but those pesky Packers… again, they’re scary.

Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 7

Oakland Raiders (6-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)

Monday 7.00am NZT

…

Wow. Like… wow. I’ve seen teams collapse from 5-0 starts before, in fact it seems to happen every year now. The Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons have both done it recently. But the Chiefs looked bloody unbeatable after five weeks. They polished off the Patriots and Eagles, man. They were amazing and now they’re just this broken husk of a side. I CALLED ALEX SMITH THE MVP FOR THREE MONTHS OF THIS SEASON!

It’s even worse than what’s happened to the Broncos the last eight weeks. At least Denver only pretended to be good in one game, the Chiefs dominated for more than a month and now they’re just clueless.

What it’s done as well is it’s opened the AFC West right the hell up. There are three teams on 6-6 with four weeks left and it’s anyone’s division to win. Well, anyone but the Broncos. The Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders all tied up, here are the remaining fixtures:

• Chiefs: Raiders (H), Chargers (H), Dolphins (H) & Broncos (A)
• Chargers: R**skins (H), Chiefs (A), Jets (A) & Raiders (H)
• Raiders: Chiefs (A), Cowboys (H), Eagles (A) & Chargers (A)

It’s possible one team also gets into the playoffs as a wildcard since right now they’re all only a game behind Baltimore… who are, you know, Baltimore. But they’re all playing each other over the next month so there aren’t that many wins to go around. The Chargers have a slightly easier run in, I reckon. At least considering that they’ve won three straight and look very strong (they cruised last week, no dramas). The Chiefs have some good home games but I kinda don’t think they win against either of these jokers so that’s them out of the question. Raiders? That’s tough as hell. On the road three times against their two divvy rivals and also the team with the best record in the league then home to the Cowboys in a game that could go either way. Get that seventh win on the board this week and it looks a little better though.

It seems like you can pinpoint the exact moment that the crisis set in for Kansas City in the dying stages of that loss to Oakland last time they played where the Raiders had like three untimed downs at the very end with flags extending things just long enough for Derek Carr to throw that winning score. Sidenote, why are people ragging on Carr this season? Like quarterbacks never have that back down to earth season after the big one? His team’s not that great. There’s plenty going on there to limit his performance. But his 2017 is better than his 2015 so don’t pretend he was overrated for what he did last time. 64.6% completion with 17 TDs and 8 INTs throwing 2731 yards in 11 games. That’s rather decent in my eyes.

Wildcard’s Pick: Raiders by 3

Minnesota Vikings (10-2) at Carolina Panthers (8-4)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Yes, fly sweet Case. Fly away home upon those wings of yours, upon those wins of yours. Appreciate the Pokemon reference too, chief. Original 151 only.

Case Keenum across this seven-game winning streak for the Vikes:

8 GM | 70.0% COMP | 1948 YDS | 13 TD | 5 INT | 100.3 RATE

Case Keenum, let me remind you, won two games in ten starts with the Texans (11 TD / 8 INT) and then won seven games in 14 starts with the Rams (13 TD / 12 INT). He’s now won eight from ten starts with the Vikings. A 2017 completion rate of 67.5% dwarfs the career mark he had of 58.4% previously. 16 touchdown passes to 5 interceptions after 24 TD to 20 INT in his career beforehand. Quite the reinvention, ain’t he?

The bloke’s hardly unprecedented in emerging as a genuine starter kinda late in the career trajectory. Even then, he’s not even 30 years old so it’s not like this needs to be a one-season-wonder thing either. He could legit spend the next five years on a very strong Minnesota team if he can sustain the level of play we’ve seen in 2017, especially over the last month or so.

One slightly annoying thing though: the revisionist history about quarterbacks, aye. Like the NFL is such a takes based league, at least in the way that people support it. For some reason sports folks feel like they have to have these commanding and unflinching opinions about every player despite minimal evidence, which is why they know so much more than the coaches, of course. The ‘are we sure Case Keenum ever sucked?’ thing is silly – yeah he sucked. He lost all eight games he played in his first season as a starter with Houston. That sucks, man. This thing like ‘oh maybe he was always this good’ ignores the fact that athletes actually improve over their careers. We expect that of young players but as soon as someone’s written off as crap that’s it, they’re done. Nah, it’s just a matter of finding the right circumstances to succeed. The Vikings are perfectly suited to the way he plays and now this has happened.

The other thing that tweet mentions is that Cam Newton has mostly sucked against good defences. And the Vikings defence isn’t only good, it’s great. Now, that doesn’t really sound too promising. That week 17 clash against the Falcons is looming very large for Carolina after losing last week to the Saints. In between are the Packers and Buccs so presumably two wins and that should get them close to the playoffs but… they’re running it fine. That’s always the case when there are three good teams in one division though.

Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 5

San Francisco 49ers (2-10) at Houston Texans (4-8)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Look, if I’d known that Jimmy G would play like that then I’d have definitely picked them to beat the Bears. No question. In fact I’m wondering now if the only reason they held him back was because they wanted to make sure they stayed in the top five for the draft. Didn’t hurl a TD pass but the dumb bugger threw at 70% for 293 yards and that was good enough… just. They only won 15-14 but Jimmy G took them down the field when it mattered. Not every QB in this league can do that.

Save your deep cuts until you’ve seen him against a decent team – so this week probably doesn’t count, even though the Texans’ problems are mostly on the other end – but he was good. Lots to work with there. Especially since it’s not like he was throwing to DeAndre Hopkins like Tom Savage was last week in his own quality start. Man, I’d argue Will Fuller’s as good as any San Francisco WR.

Wildcard’s Pick: 49ers by 2

Indianapolis Colts (3-9) at Buffalo Bills (6-6)

Monday 7.00am NZT

There wasn’t really much point in even having a season, was there Indianapolis? It was just a wasted year all over, although there’s an argument that that’s what they needed. New GM ripping that roster up and an injured franchise quarterback didn’t give them much hope but this might give them a chance to rebound in 2018. They’re not exactly making the progressive developments of the Bears or 49ers though so… Chuck Pagano’s first losing season might also be his last season in Indy.

Chuck (pun intended) the house on this one being tied at HT and then the Bills going on to win it. It’s happening. But don’t actually bet the house because, mate, the housing market being what it is you’ll never be able to afford another one. A convincing win for the Bills would be on the cards were Tyrod Talyor all good to go and he might still play despite the knee injury… but that’s not an easy injury to play through.

Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 4

Chicago Bears (3-9) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-7)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Nah, burn this one down.

Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by 7

Dallas Cowboys (6-6) at New York Giants (2-10)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Riiiight, okay. Eli’s back! Bob McAdoo’s been fired! Umm… doesn’t that make it seem like they could’ve just avoided all the chaos and sacked the coach last week instead of benching Eli Manning? Geno Smith played fine but he’s not gonna be starting next season so there’s nothing to prove. I suppose now they’ve at least greased the wheels for Eli to be traded in the offseason since the streak has been broken and there isn’t much coming back from 2-14. Plus McAdoo took the blame for that move which means that… which means that this might have been the whole diabolical plan from the beginning. This was how they planned to move on from Eli Manning without tarnishing their future. Hmm… slimy.

Good win from the Cowboys last week and I’m anticipating a good win this week as well. Doubt it really matters in the long term.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 11

Washington R*dskins (5-7) at Los Angeles Chargers (6-6)

Monday 10.05am NZT

Keenan Allen’s last three games:

• vs BILLS – 12 REC | 159 YDS | 2 TD
• at COWBOYS – 11 REC | 172 YDS | 1 TD
• vs BROWNS – 10 REC | 105 YDS | 1 TD

Already taken a peek at the Chargers’ remaining games and their playoff standings. Just think once more that if they’d been able to kick a few field goals in the opening two weeks then they’d be 8-4 right now and cruising towards the playoffs. A dodgy trio of division rivals have let them back into it, other teams won’t get the chance to come back from such starts most season (including last year’s Chargers), but they’ve taken that chance and made the most of it this past month. Can’t as for much more… other than some home field advantage, that’d be nice.

Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 8

New York Jets (5-7) at Denver Broncos (3-9)

Monday 10.05am NZT

All I’m gonna say is this…

Josh McCown: 67.8% COMP | 2880 YDS | 18 TD | 8 INT | 96.7 RATE | 5 RUSH TDs

Also didn’t realise that the bloke’s 38 years old so guts to the jets if they think they’ve found something long term but there’s heaps to be said for a team that’s made the most of a limited roster amidst much better teams who seem intent on self-sabotage because of the pipe dream that one good player in the draft might change their entire futures. Shout out to the Jets. McCown was excellent against the Chiefs – this is some 2014 Bears Josh Mac!

This league is senseless in so many ways.

Wildcard’s Pick: Jets by 6

Tennessee Titans (8-4) at Arizona Cardinals (5-7)

Monday 10.05am NZT

Shout out to The Pineapple Guy.

Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 6

Seattle Seahawks (8-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)

Monday 10.25am NZT

The MVP award should still go to Tom Brady. I hate his stupid team and I hate his stupid coach and every now and then I hate him too but he’s been the best player in the NFL in 2017, better than Carson Wentz, and I remain on record as proclaiming he oughta win the award. Again.

But the case for Russell Wilson is a legitimate one. He’s the third of the three remaining genuine candidates and he’s doing the most of the three with the least of the three. Look at his efforts last week. A rampant Eagles team on a big winning streak come to town with the Seahawks missing half their defence and with the dregs that he’s got to work with on offence and he throws 21/30 for 227 yards with 3 TDs and not a pick in sight. Chuck in 31 rush yards on six carries just for fun too.

ESPN: “Consider the historic degree to which he's carried Seattle's offense. In addition to being on pace for a career-high in passing yards, Wilson is also the team's leading rusher by a wide margin, with 432 yards after adding 31 Sunday night. He's thrown or ran for all but one of Seattle' 30 offensive touchdowns, and he entered this game having accounted for almost 86 percent of the team's scrimmage yards. According to the NFL, that would be the highest percentage of any one player in the Super Bowl era.

And not for nothing, Wilson has been excellent late in games. He entered this one with an NFL-best 134.9 rating and 14 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter. His touchdown to McKissic gave him 15, which, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, ties the NFL's single-season record set by Eli Manning in 2011.”

It’d be unfair to harp on the narrative that Wilson does ‘everything’ for this team, though. He does most of it on offence, sure, but how about Jimmy Graham who was dropping passes left, right and centre in the first few weeks (4 catches from 10 targets for 9 yards in the first two games) but now has 9 scores in his last eight games? Or Bobby Wagner, one of the last remaining Legionnaires and one of only three Seattle defensive players to have started every game this season, who has been, to put it simply, incredible. Like, Bobby Wagner is in defensive player of the year form.

As for that lateral Wilson threw last week, here’s the expert’s view:

Absolutely genius play as well. It was like the textbook rugby 2v1 where you draw the man then pass but ball security is such a threat in the NFL that nobody ever tries that. Loved seeing Rusty whip out the clever plays.

Wait, who are they playing? I got distracted. The Jaguars… yeah, nah. Got a lot of time for that Jags secondary as you well know but I just cannot ever pick Bort in a close game. The sooner they’re starting Eli Manning the better, after all what is Eli Manning if not the best possible incarnation of Blake Bortles? Bort is the Charmander and Eli is the Charizard.

Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 2

Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) at Los Angeles Rams (9-3)

Monday 10.25pm NZT

Yes please. I’ll have all of this one, we’re looking at the two breakout teams of the NFL season (okay, chuck the Saints in there too – the Vikes were already kinda good). Not only that but it’s Carson Wentz vs Jared Goff, the two top picks in the draft in 2016. Wentz wins the comparison hands down but both teams are pretty chuffed with what they’ve got right now and, potentially, for the next decade.

• Wentz 2017: 60.7% COMP | 3005 YDS | 29 TD | 6 INT | 102.0 RATE
• Goff 2017: 62.2% COMP | 3184 YDS | 20 TD | 6 INT | 98.4 RATE

What’s most surprising there is that it’s closer than it appears. Wentz has only attempted seven more passes than Goff too so the numbers are almost identical in sample size (Goff has two more completions). Granted, Goff also has Todd Gurley chewing up yards. Not that Wentz doesn’t have a great run game behind him but Goff isn’t even the star of his own show. Wentz has that scramble game down pat as well to his credit – his QB sneak is a thing of beauty.

Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 4

Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-2)

Monday 2.30pm NZT

It’s been ugly at times, it’s been beautiful at other times. All up the Steelers have been able to knit together seven wins on the trot going back to a 30-9 loss against the Jaguars. The defence comes and goes but they’ve never scored fewer than 19 points in a game so far… understandable with what they have to work with. Remember when Big Ben was maybe on the verge of retirement? Turns out a competitive team goes a long way to getting those fires burning again. Just ask Tom Brady.

I dunno, the Ravens are frisky. Joe Flacco’s become a punchline and he’s clearly not very good anymore… but there are still plenty of worse dudes out there. Just because Bill Simmons makes fun of him every week doesn’t mean you have to fall for the ruse – I swear the next time he makes a Clapper joke I’m throwing my phone through the window.

And the Ravens really do have a killer defence. They’ve surged up top with 20 interceptions, that’s four more than the Eagles and Jaguars who’ve been slaying on that side of the ball. Their three wins in a row have come against the Packers, Texans and Lions so nothing special but still they’ve got 11 combined takeaways in those contests. When your QB is no longer capable of throwing 200 yards in a game (the rest of their offence is trash too so it’s not all on Joe Flacid) then getting short field possessions is the ideal compromise. Still gotta say the Steelers will win but it’s not going to be easy. Hey and the Ravens finish things off with a trip to Cleveland before hosting the Colts and Bengals so anything less than 9 wins will be a choke from here. They should get to 10… and that’ll be a playoff spot in this conference.

By the way, last season the Patriots and Steelers won their divisions to make the playoffs. No surprises there and it’ll happen again. However the other four AFC playoff reps were the Chiefs, Texans, Raiders and Dolphins. At a guess I’m saying that, ooh… none of them get back there. Looks like Titans, Jaguars, Chargers and Ravens to me.

Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 1

New England Patriots (10-2) at Miami Dolphins (5-7)

Tuesday 2.30pm NZT

Look at that scumbag, that Patriots filth, that dirty mongrel. One game for a blindside shot at an unprotected opponent? Come on, that’s a life ban right there. Maybe I’m letting my anti-Pats bias leak through a little strong here but I won’t sleep until Robert Gronkowski is kicked out of the NFL and Thomas Brady is drug tested for excess traces Fountain of Youth waters in his system.

Speaking of, Odell Beckham has some takes on Tom Brady’s temper tantrums…

Now I’m in a bad mood so let’s sign off with something cheerful…

Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 10

The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. One time he beat the Elite Four like 25 times in a single save game on Red version, which remains his greatest sporting achievement to date. Gotta get that Lapras levelled up and away she goes.

Cheers for reading all the way to the end, you bloody legend. Smack an ad to say cheers in return.