They’re a famously underachieving franchise with a jokingly incapable quarterback… and they’re playing the New England Patriots for a place in the Super Bowl in a few days. The Jacksonville Jaguars, aye? How the hell did this happen!?

With all due respect, and there’s plenty of it, to Steffon Diggs and the miracle last play that won the Vikings that game against the Saints (creating the hilarious twisted circumstance of Carson Wentz getting drafted by the Eagles, allowing them to trade Sam Bradford to the Vikings, whom they’d gotten when they traded Nick Foles to the Rams but then Foles got benched for Case Keenum before the Rams drafted Jared Goff and let Foles walk and he went to the Chiefs as a backup for a year while Keenum started half the season with the Rams before Goff took over and both were released at the end of 2016, Foles signing again with the Eagles to backup Wentz while Keenum signed with the Vikings to backup Bradford but both starters were injured and now Keenum and Foles are starting against each other in the NFC Championship game. Aaaand breathe out.), the journey of the Jacksonville Jaguars is the number one story of the playoffs so far.

The Jags were a decent team in the late-90s. 14-2 in the 1999 season, for example. Mark Brunell and the defence that ended Dan Marino’s career – they beat the Fins 62-7 in the divisional game, up 24-0 after one quarter and forcing seven turnovers in the game. Fred Taylor had a 90 yard rushing score. But that team had one Achilles heel and it was the Tennessee Titans. Just like the Saints beat the Panthers three times this season, the Titans swept the 1999 Jags in all three, including a 33-14 win in the AFC Championship game. Those Jaguars were 0-3 against the Titans and 15-0 vs the rest of the league.

Fast forward through some decent times with Byron Leftwich and then David Garrard but after DG got them to the playoffs in 2007, where they beat the Steelers before losing to the still-undefeated Patriots (how’d that one turn out?), Jacksonville then embarked on nine straight seasons without a winning record. Between 2011 and 2016 they won a combined 22 games, going 5-11, 2-14, 4-12, 3-13, 5-11 and 3-13. Then all of a sudden they punch out a 10-6 season and a couple playoff wins and here they are.

How did this happen? Well, like most successful rebuilds it felt like it all happened at once but the seeds were planted long ago. And also like plenty of successful rebuilds there’s every chance that they’re back to only winning four or five games next season… but let’s give them their moment in the sun first.

The initial seeds were planted in the draft, as tends to be the case. The one positive about six straight seasons with five or fewer wins is that you get six straight top five picks in the draft. Justin Blackmon could’ve been a great wide receiver but off-field issues meant he only ever played 20 games, so it goes. Can’t win on ‘em all. Then Luke Joeckel was a bit crap as an offensive lineman (injuries didn’t help) and he signed with the Seahawks before this season.

The next four, though, they’ve all brought it in 2017, all contributing in their own way. Blake Bortles deserves plenty of words of his own and he’ll get them later. Dante Fowler had 8.0 sacks and a couple forced fumbles. Jalen Ramsey is already one of the best secondary players in the league and was one of five separate players with at least three interceptions for the Jags this season. And rookie Leonard Fournette rushed for 1040 yards with 9 touchdowns, chipping in as an option in the passing game as well.

It doesn’t always contribute to immediate turnarounds but if you draft well then you give yourself every chance. And it’s not just the first rounders either. Guys like Myles Jack, Telvin Smith, Cam Robinson, Yannick Ngakoue, AJ Cann and Marqise Lee have all developed into strong and regular starters having been drafted by this team. Marcedes Lewis was selected back in 2006 and has spent his whole career in Jacksonville, starting every games in 2017.

The next step was leadership. When Tom Coughlin was fired by the New York Giants (technically resigned… but mostly fired), some supposed that he was ready for a happy retirement. Two rings in the bank and all that. But instead he returned to the team that he made his name at before the Giants, as the ‘Executive Vice President of Football Operations’. And after serving as the interim for the last couple games of 2016 following Gus Bradley’s sacking, Doug Marrone was announced as the team’s head coach on the same day as Coughlin was announced.

Chuck in general manager Dave Caldwell and, between the three, the entire atmosphere of the franchise was tightened up. No more pissing around, the Jags were getting serious. There’s the story about Marrone getting rid of the ping pong table in the clubhouse and mixing up the seating arrangements in the locker room to get different position groups integrated. Or how they had the team practicing in full pads during the steaming preseason. The plan was to harvest a rough and powerful team, mentally sharpened and physically brutal.

Next step, therefore, was getting the right folks in through free agency. Safe to say that Calais Campbell, AJ Bouye and Barry Church got that job done. Campbell especially, since he joined from the Cardinals he’s been utterly immense. Like, possible Defensive Player of the Year good. Three forced fumbles, 14.5 sacks, 47 tackles… he was one of four Pro-Bowlers on that defence. AJ Bouye, Malik Jackson and Jalen Ramsey were the others.

It’s that defence that has really led the way. Second in points allowed, second in yards allowed, first in first downs allowed, second in turnovers forced, second in sacks, best in net yards per attempt. Ramsey and Bouye quickly drew hype as potentially the best cornerback combo in the league and between the pressure from that pass rush and the coverage in that secondary they were constantly able to turn the ball over in generous areas. There’ve only been two games so far where they haven’t been able to force a takeaway and those were in a 27-0 win over the Colts and a 23-7 win over the Bengals – they hardly even needed to. They had five takeaways against both the Browns and the Steelers, foreshadowing their playoff win in Pittsburgh with a 30-9 win over the Steelers in week five.

Turnovers have been the secret on both sides of the ball, in fact. They’re unbeaten with at least three defensive takeaways (5-0) while all six of their defeats came with only one or two. But four of those six defeats also featured at least three offensive turnovers. See, that Jaguars defence has two major weaknesses. One is that they aren’t so great against the rush. They give up 4.3 yards/attempt and 116.3 yards/game. 26th and 22nd in the NFL respectively. The other major weakness that this defence has is the Jacksonville Jaguars offence.

As long as they’re forcing turnovers then all they need is for that offence to be mediocre. They’re giving them short fields to work with. Fournette is a bit overrated if we’re being honest. He’s an impressive rookie who finished eighth in rush yardage but it doesn’t even out especially pretty. A 90-yard score against PIT skewed his stats early enough to convince a lot of people but he’s also had six games (including playoffs) where he’s averaged worse than three yards per carry. He’s a workhorse who does enough to bring a threat but you can close him down if you’ve got a solid defensive line and a decent inside linebacker.

Probably a bit to do with Blake Bortles. If he could throw an accurate pass then you’d see the rushing lanes open up like the sun shining through the clouds after a storm. Buuuut he can’t.

When Bort threw 35 touchdowns in his second season there was talk that he could be this dramatic gunslinger, a big old arm to threaten the best of them. But that’s not the quarterback this team needs at the moment and he wasn’t able to recreate that anyway. This was his best season yet. For the first time he completed over 60% and his legendary interceptions were at a career-low 13, less than one per game, finally! (Bort’s tossed 64 picks in four seasons so yeah).

Cat outta the bag here: this dude just isn’t particularly good. Far from the worst starting QB this season but he’s also nowhere near the best in the business. He’s not in the top ten. He might not even be in the top 20. And four years into his career it’s still hard to pin him down. When they beat the Steelers in week five he threw 8/14 for 95 yards with a pick. They won that game by 21 points and he didn’t even get to 100 yards. Then there was a game later in the season when they beat the Chargers by three and he completed 28/51 for 273 yards with one TD and 2 INTs. To throw 51 times and not even get to 300 yards… to throw 51 times with only one score… to do both of those and still beat a playoff-contending team… mate.

Yet then there was a stretch in December when, over three games, he threw 7 TDs with 0 picks, 903 yards at 71% completion and a QB Rating of 128.6. Three wins, of course. The Colts and Texans aren’t really trophies you put on the wall but in between was a victory in Seattle. So of course he closed the season with consecutive defeats, completing at 56% with 2 TDs and 5 INTs. He’s up and he’s down and he’s flat and he’s round and he’s left and he’s right and he’s out of his mind.

The playoffs only exaggerated that. In blizzard conditions against the Bills he threw for 87 yards but then also led the team in rush yards with 88 of those, setting up their lone touchdown drive with a couple valuable runs. The Jags won 10-3. The following week Bort was something similar, 14/26 for 214 yards and one TD. A couple decent runs but only 54% completion. The Jaguars beat the Steelers 45-42. They scored 45 points… with Bort doing that. They can win a playoff game with only 10 points. They can win a playoff game conceding 42 points.

Doug Marrone is always defending Blake Bortles, while Bort himself is impressively immune to the jokes. Hey, a 2-0 playoff record goes a long way towards justifying it all. But Doug Marrone also tends to coach around Bort. The trick is in getting what they need out of him without unleashing him enough to make the mistakes that’ll cost them the game and, to his credit, Bort’s done a commendable job of that. He’s 25th among 32 qualified starters with his 60.2% completion rate and only six blokes threw more picks but he was also 11th in pass yards, 13th in yards per completion and he had the sixth best sack percentage. Doing just enough to get by… and just enough is good enough.

It makes you wonder what this team would be like with, say, Derek Carr or Dak Prescott taking the snaps. Obviously Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers would win games with almost any team but suppose you take one of those young dudes on the fringes of the top ten, capable of running an offence without handcuffs...

Or maybe, with the coaching they’ve got, the quality they bring on defence, the turnovers they’re able to create (two in each playoff game, with none on offence), the young running back and also the as-of-yet-unmentioned emerging talent of Keelan Cole who has mostly been a non-factor in the playoffs, other than a 45 yard reception against PIT, but who had back to back 100+ yard games as a starting wide receiver late in the season… maybe Bort is all they need and anything more would knock the team off its axis.

In the space of a year the Jags have gone from 25th in both points scored and points allowed to fifth in points scored and second in points allowed. They doubled their win total and are back in the playoffs for the first time in a decade. Not only that but they’ve won two playoff games and are playing the defending champs next up for a place in the Super Bowl. 2000 words later that still doesn’t make a lot of sense.

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