There’s been a shadow hanging over this Cleveland Cavaliers season from the very start and that shadow takes the shape of LeBron James’ impending free agency… whatever shape that happens to be. Probably the shape of a human body-sized hole in a door frame.

He might not leave. He’s got a player option or he could negotiate a new one-plus-one deal, whatever he wants to do the Cavs will have no choice but to agree to. But there seems to be a feeling among those who know that he’s considering a change of scenery to somewhere where the burden of trying to win championships isn’t placed so heavily on his shoulders alone. Somewhere like Los Angeles. Or maybe even San Antonio, which is the one place he could go which would actually be amazing.

Nothing else will happen before LeBron James makes a decision because no team in the league is going to do anything while LeBron is still potentially available and no agent in the league is going to let their dudes do anything until LeBron stirs the market into action. And once that happens, mate, we’re in for an insane NBA offseason.

This is the last year before the NBA lottery odds get evened out, making this the last proper season of genuine tanking. The Dallas Mavericks took a long time to brace themselves for a single season of tanking and Rick Carlisle will never allow it to happen again. Similarly the Memphis Grizzlies got stuck with injuries which made this their only feasible chance at a top pick (both got stiffed by the lottery even still). The Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings and Orlando Magic have been average for ages… but get that one superstar in the draft and the corner will be turned.

Point being that after a season in which a record number of teams weren’t really trying, we’re about to hit an offseason when most of them will be back to being all in like the rest of the NBA. And it so happens that there’s a very deep draft class on the way towards the big time. And one of the best free agent classes in ages which features half a dozen blokes that could genuinely change the fortunes of an entire franchise with a signature on a piece of paper. Aaaaand here are ten of these belter storylines to keep an eye on.

Whatever The Hell LeBron James Does

Is he actually going to leave Cleveland? It doesn’t really matter, the main thing is that he could. That’s enough to get teams like the Clippers, 76ers, Lakers, Spurs… let’s be honest, every team in the league is perking their ears at this possibility. LeBron is going to be extremely selective. He’s not going anywhere he cannot win and he’s going to want a readymade roster already there that he won’t have to manufacture for himself. The Sixers are the obvious candidate then… but would that be too much like a Kevin Durant decision? Or he could hook up with Gregg Popovich in San Antonio, a coach whom he has immense respect for already. There’s the big market option with the Lakers or the underdog option with the Clippers. Or the hometown option re-signing in Cleveland. Basically LeBron gets to do what he wants at this stage. This’ll be massive.

The Small Matter of the NBA Draft

A hot rookie won’t get challenging for titles in a hurry but it helps. Gotta give them a few seasons to settle in and it’s not like the Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings or Atlanta Hawks – with the top three picks – have well-stocked rosters to surround their Next New Hopes with. But this is a quality draft. Blokes like DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley, Jaren Jackson and Mo Bamba each have All Star potential and that’s without getting to riskier prospects with huge upsides such as Michael Porter or Trae Young.

Or a certain bloke who might be the best of them all. Luka Doncic has yet to announce that he’s entering the draft but it’d be crazy if he doesn’t, most likely he was focussing on winning the Euroleague first. Which he did. If he slips to fourth for Memphis, that’d be so perfect.

Every draft pick is a gamble since you never know which prospects will come good and which will go bust. That’s the trick with it all, there’s no exact science to it. However there are at least eight teams banking on getting something useful out of this draft and for once there might just be enough food at the dinner table to go around. Which is bound to be helpful once the draft is done and everyone’s fighting furiously for the last turkey wing in free agency.

Kawhi Leonard vs The Spurs

There’s no perfect account of this situation but Kawhi is injured and spent most of the season getting treatment away from the team while the Spurs got frustrated at his loner nature and felt he’d been misdiagnosed, taking information from the wrong people, and could’ve played earlier if he’d been braver.

It never got resolved and now there’s a fathomable possibility that he might be leaving, especially if the Spurs aren’t willing to offer a supermax contract to an injured player because, let’s be honest, somebody is going to pay him one way or another. There’s a question mark about the fitness and recovery aspects and there’s also the sign and trade possibility that might complicate things. But if you trust that Kawhi can get back to his best again then it’s an absolute no-brainer that you go after him, which leaves the Spurs in a strange place. Bet big dollars on a player that you openly feuded with last season or risk him going elsewhere to do the damage against you?

The Los Angeles Lakers Flipping The Switch

Of all the teams looking to go from zero to a hundred in one-offseason, the Lakers are the best pressed with the last few seasons having prepared them for this moment. They can easily manipulate things to find the cap room to sign two max players and, for once, might finally have the supporting cast to ensure the big fish actually consider them. Which means that Julius Randle is available if you want him, folks.

LeBron James is first choice and a man as focussed on his own legacy as LBJ might rate the prospect of another chapter in his incredible career in which he reinvigorates the most famous franchise in the league. But if LeBron goes elsewhere then there’s still the very real chance of getting Paul George to opt out and zip back to the city he grew up in. There’s been a very thinly veiled attempt to grease him up for two years now. The Lakers will go for anyone who can help them in a hurry, anyone with a little star power, and they’ll be legit players in this free agent season, don’t doubt it. Not a lot of trade bait and they don’t have a high pick so free agency it must be. Wait for all the tricks to come out because the Lakers are sick and tired of being irrelevant.

The Big Buggers

There are a fair few talented big men in the draft but there are also a few coming up in free agency. Nikola Jokic has a team option which will probably take him off the market soon, although they might decline it to offer him a proper max and keep him around longer (at the risk of letting him become an RFA). But DeAndre Jordan has a player option he might decline, Clint Capela is a restricted free agent (and Chris Paul’s coming off contract too which makes matching any offers on Capela less than a foregone conclusion) and DeMarcus Cousins is a free agent but coming off an Achilles injury.

Three superb options at centre are on the market but all three of them have significant risks to them… so which teams are willing to take that punt? The Dallas Mavericks are supposedly one of them if reports are to be believed. They won’t be the only ones. The New Orleans Pelicans did bloody well without Boogie right up until they didn’t… but they’ve also had the best look at his injured heel. The Boston Celtics are probably well positioned to absorb the risk.

Then of course whoever misses out on Boogie turns their attention towards trying to pry away Jordan or Capela which has its own domino effects. By the way, Hassan Whiteside on the Miami Heat… no sure thing. Could become trade bait and that leads us into the next topic.

The Trade Market

Based on the last couple seasons, there will absolutely 100% be at least one player who ends up on the trade block who nobody thought was genuinely going to be available. That might be Karl-Anthony Towns. Zach Lowe’s already dropped that bomb on his podcast.

Jimmy Butler, Paul George, DeMarcus Cousins, Kyrie Irving… all players who’ve been traded recently. That’s going to continue to be common as front offices get more hands-on than ever coupled with the blunted cap spike that left a bunch of players getting paid more than what turned out to be market value and a bunch of teams with less cap room than they’d prefer. This is the where the wild stuff happens.

OKC, 1 2 3…

Okay so the OK3 thing didn’t go so well. It won’t be happening again either, one way or another. Russell Westbrook is going nowhere but Paul George and Carmelo Anthony are way less assured. PG was expected to leave from the beginning, this was just a fun gap year in the eyes of a lot of people before he could leave for Los Angeles in free agency. Except that George had a pretty good time in Oklahoma City, is mates with Russ, and seems to be talking like a man seriously considering staying around.

Meanwhile Carmelo Anthony has close to 28 million reasons to stay yet he’s the one making demands about not sacrificing no bench role and all that, despite the fact that he’s a terrible fit in this team and will be forced to play in a style that doesn’t suit him if he stays. Melo isn’t as washed as people say, he’s just useless when playing next to Westbrook. Got to think that Sam Presti is trying to figure out ways to get rid of that contract, be it a buyout or an opt-out. Presti’s always got a few things up the sleeve and depending on which of his secondary stars stay and which bolt he’ll need to do more of the same in the coming months, making the Thunder a fascinating team to keep an eye on. Plenty of teams want a shot at Paul George, you know. None really fancy Carmelo but that’s where the magic tricks begin.

Picking Up The Scraps in Toronto

Funny how an absolutely fantastic season could be destroyed by four playoff defeats at the hands of LeBron James. Dwane Casey’s already paid the price for that by getting sacked as coach and Masai Ujiri seems like a man on a mission now. The big question is whether this team has peaked under DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry’s leadership and if that’s the case then there could be something going on in the trade market. They do have a number of solid young players on that bench so there’s plenty to work with but rest assured that work will be done. Also… mirror this entire paragraph for the Washington Wizards, other than the coach sacking thing.

Sean Marks, Take Notice

Marks has made a name for himself by targeting restricted free agents with back-loaded contracts in order to attract literally anyone to the Brooklyn Nets. Well, here are a few of the names that might be on the list of upcoming restricted free agents: Clint Capela, Jusuf Nurkic, Aaron Gordon, Jabari Parker, Marcus Smart, Julius Randle, Zach LaVine, Dante Exum, Rodney Hood and Elfrid Payton.

Isaiah Thomas is a Free Agent

Remember that guy? Well, folks, he’s available!

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