Last Week: 7-7

Season: 52-38-1

Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at Denver Broncos (2-4)

Friday 1.20pm NZT

I tell ya, the more I struggle with these picks the more it’s starting to get to me. I’m getting the yips, just like a quarterback too worried about where the next interception is coming from rather than the next score. At the start of the late morning games on Monday I was sitting pretty at 6-2... and then proceeded to get all the rest of the Monday games wrong, saved only from humiliation by the refs gifting the Green Bay Packers the win over Detroit on Tuesday arvo.

The weird thing is I’m not even sure I did anything too dumb there. The Cowboys lost a major upset. The Falcons should have beaten the Cardinals but that was a trap door pick either way. Minny over Philly I was happy to be wrong about. The Texans beating the Chiefs away was an upset. I guess I’ve learned a lesson about backing the Chargers this year, they’ve been a mess, but they should have beaten this ravaged Pittsburgh team. Las Vegas went 7-7 with their odds too and 8-6 the previous week so I dunno, maybe I’m not doing so bad. Maybe it’s more that we’re six weeks into the season and still there’s so much that doesn’t make sense. This season is crazy. This league is mental.

Patrick Mahomes Weeks 1-3:

71.9% COMP | 1195 YDS | 10 TD | 0 INT | 12.24 AY/A | 134.9 RATE

Patrick Mahomes Weeks 4-6:

56.0% COMP | 909 YDS | 4 TD | 1 INT | 8.14 AY/A | 89.3 RATE

The ankle’s a problem for Mahomes and those numbers have stumbled hard since, with the Chiefs losing their last two (to Indy and Houston). His deep ball in particular seems to be evading him even as Tyreek Hill has come back to health (two TDs and 80 yards in his return, though he only caught half his targets). Up against what has always been a good Broncos team despite the problems they’ve had this year, you have to worry about Mahomes on a short turnaround... but then after back to back defeats they can’t really afford to rest their best player either – especially as they’re already down some key position players through injury as it is. Gotta get through this and simmer down over the extra days off afterwards... with Green Bay and Minnesota to follow so it ain’t getting any easier. There’s wonky result potential here on a Thursday night but I’m still backing the Chiefs.

Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 7

Oakland Raiders (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (5-1)

Monday 6.00am NZT

Say what you will about the refs but there were some vintage Aaron Rodgers throws in that one. Hadn’t really seen much of that from him this season until then. And, like, shout out to Derek Carr because he’s been okay so far and this Raiders team has a lot of undercover talent. You have to wonder what they’d look like if Antonio Brown hadn’t lost his mind. But Matt Stafford had a lot of success in the first half of that game by throwing deep on first down against the Packers defence and Carr has basically lived off the short completions. Which, yeah, he’s been very accurate. But it’s not enough for this one.

Credit to rookie running back Josh Jacobs too. Before the bye he had 123 yards with two scores in a win in London over the Bears. He’s been grinding it out this season and best of all is that he was one of the picks that came back the other way in the Khalil Mack trade so it wasn’t a complete disaster, there you go. The Raiders also have Chicago’s firstie for 2020 as well.

Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 7

Los Angeles Rams (3-3) at Atlanta Falcons (1-5)

Monday 6.00am NZT

Alright we’ve got some moves! The Rams shipped Marcus Peters off to the Baltimore Ravens for Kenny Young (who’s a free agent next year so no biggie) which didn’t make much sense given Aqib Talib was then put on the IR but of course there was a move impending… Jaylen Ramsey to the Rams for 2020 and 2021 first round picks and a 2021 fourthie just for kicks. That’s a significant price but it’s what Jacksonville were demanding. Not just one firstie but two of them. Good get for the Jags – who weren’t going to be able to pay Ramsey anyway.

Jaylen Ramsey’s been a bit of a wild child this year and injury/circumstance has kept him out of the last three Jaguars games – overshadowing the fact that he’d previously never missed a game in the NFL which solidifies him as a reliable and dominant cornerback. Like, forget the dramas. He’s on a contender now and he won’t be an issue. In fact he’ll be a major positive influence for a team that in losing their last three games has been getting torched by opposing quarterbacks…

Jameis Winston in Wk 4: 28/41 COMP | 385 YDS | 4 TD | 1 INT | 120.5 RATE

Russell Wilson in Wk 5: 17/23 COMP | 268 YDS | 4 TD | 0 INT | 151.8 RATE

Jimmy Garoppolo in Wk 6… actually Jimmy G wasn’t as dominant, he didn’t throw a touchdown pass and his passer rating was only 80.7… but that’s still substantially better than Jared Goff who only threw 78 yards in the entire bloody game. The Rams have gone all in on the now with this trade. Two first round picks out the door and that’s the only conclusion you can make. Which is the right thing to do because we’ve seen way too many teams make the Super Bowl one year and then sit on their hands and get overtaken by the chasing pack. The Carolina Panthers spring to mind but no team has copped it worse than these Atlanta Falcons. The Rams have to prioritise this brief window. They also nabbed Austin Corbett from the Browns to restock a damaged offensive line as well, these are smart moves. Plus now Jaylen Ramsey gets to be reunited with his old mate Blake Bortles!

Speaking of which… with Jared Goff only putting up one game this season with a passer rating better than 83.3 and with 7 TDs to his 7 INTs and with a 517 yard losing effort and a 78 yard losing effort… at what point Blake Bortles come into contention to… oh wow. Can Jaylen Ramsey play quarterback? Maybe do a Deion Sanders and play both offence and defence? He’s always had outspoken ideas about other quarterbacks so let’s see what he’s got, can’t be worse than what’s happening for the Rams at the moment.

Meanwhile the Atlanta Falcons have a fantastic quarterback and, in the complete inverse, absolutely nothing else. Oh my God are they abysmal. I blame myself, to be fair. A few weeks back I blasphemed by consulting the I Ching about my pick for them and clearly the ancient spirits could tell that I was taking the piss and not only was that pick predictably wrong but I seem to have brought a curse down upon the Atlanta Falcons so I’d like to apologise to Dan Quinn for that one. Sorry chief, but you’re about to lose your job. Can’t argue when the rot was already set it.

Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 10

San Francisco 49ers (5-0) at Washington R*dskins (1-5)

Monday 6.00am NZT

Hahaha. Kyle Shanahan throwing some fastballs directly at the Skins right there. By the way the Falcons are 18-20 since Shanahan left there and the Niners are currently 5-0. And say what you will about Jimmy G but he’s now 13-2 as a starting quarterback. It’s a bit like this year’s Bills team where there are some obvious flaws but they keep finding a way to win and ultimately that’s what matters.

And if you didn’t think that the Niners were a legit team before then their demolition of the Rams’ passing game should change your mind. Not saying Super Bowl candidates necessarily but this team is about to be 6-0 and missing the playoffs from here would be a shocker. They kept Goff to 48 net passing yards on 28 passing plays. He was anaemic. Remember that this is a league dominated by the pass these days, with passing records getting broken on the regular, but the Niners and the Patriots are leading the show in all those passing defence stats... and are the two remaining undefeated teams which is far from a coincidence. The Niners are only giving up 150 yards in the air per game! And they’re playing the Washington Professional Football Team this week! So even if you still think their schedule has been pretty easy then it doesn’t matter because this is their easiest game yet!

Wildcard’s Pick: Niners by 18

Houston Texans (4-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-2)

Monday 6.00am NZT

Hey look it’s the two teams that just beat the Kansas City Chiefs. But while the Colts did it through playing physical and energetic on the defensive end, the Texans were able to bring more of a balance to think with Deshaun Watson pushing himself into the MVP conversation the way he’s playing. We’re starting to see the benefit of trading for Laremy Tunsil now and Watson’s cashing in, dude. He threw two picks last week but with back to back game without a sack and considering they only lost in week one because of a last second field goal which would otherwise have them at 5-1... these Texans are the real deal.

However the Colts already have a gameplan in place. Basically just do to Watson exactly what they did to Patrick Mahomes. Throw heaps of weird looks at him, get pressure coming from all angles and have him running for his life. And then of course you minimise his impact by taking time of the clock with an effective rushing game (Houston did the same – keeping KC to their lowest time in possession at home since 1977). Marlon Mack ran 29 times against the Chiefs. Twenty-nine times. Bagged 132 yards at 4.6 yards per carry too which is some bulldozing stuff. He’s actually on pace for 323 carries this season which is an enormous workload – there’s only been one running back past 300 carries in each of the last four years (Zeke twice, Le’Veon one, and Adrian Peterson another time). Eh, might as well keep at it while it’s working.

Another one to keep an eye on, these are TY Hilton’s numbers for his career against the Texans:

14 GM | 76 REC | 1445 YDS | 19.01 Y/REC | 9 Tds

To be fair most of that came with Andrew Luck but still, huge numbers. 103.2 yards per game. If he can do a little more of that here and the Colts can repeat the effort against KCC before their bye then this could be a midseason classic. The Texans are the better team... but I quite like the matchup here for the Colts.

Also, read this. Like, finish reading these picks first and maybe just save the tab but definitely read this at some point because if you didn’t already love DeAndre Hopkins then you’re silly first of all but second of all if you didn’t then you will after reading this.

Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 2

Minnesota Vikings (4-2) at Detroit Lions (2-2-1)

Monday 6.00am NZT

Folks, I present to you the sorry tale of Zach Brown. A cautionary tale, in fact. You see, Zach Brown was a linebacker for the Eagles but he used to play for the Washington R*dskins alongside Kirk Cousins. Coming up against Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings last week, naturally he was asked about the prospect. And, people let me tell you, sports people often get criticised for speaking in bland cliches and not really saying anything. Well Mr Brown probably should have taken that course of action because in answering the questions he unloaded upon the perceived weaknesses of Kirk Cousins.

Zach Brown: “Cousins, I think every defense is going to want that guy to throw the ball. For me, that’s probably the weakest part of their offense is him. Everything else is good. They’ve got a good running game, probably one of the best in the league. They have real good receivers. You just want them to pass the ball. You want Kirk Cousins to get it in his hands.”

Now, a lot of people may not have argued with that statement at the time. A lot of people will have agreed, in fact. But you take a risk when you rag on an opponent pre-game and Kirk Cousins responded with his best game of the season, throwing 333 yards on 22/29 completions with four scores. Zach Brown was released by the Eagles shortly after. I told you it was a cautionary tale.

Woah mate but look who feasted in that Vikings win, man... Stefon Diggs is back!

Diggs had been a little critical himself, not so much of Cousins as of the general scheme of their offence, but with three scores and 167 yards receiving against the Eagles he is officially back in business. Adam Thielen’s starting to cook too, he only had 57 yards against Philly but he scored a touchdown to go with the two (plus 130 rec yds) he had against the Giants the week before. Dalvin Cook is the main cook on this team and so he should be but striking a balance to where Diggs and Thielen are a prominent force is the way forward.

Detroit are cursed, right? I don’t know how to work out the details here but it feels like over the Matt Stafford era the Lions have had more horrible luck in losing football games than anyone. There was a famous one against my Cowboys even, a playoff game. Although then again the Lions with Staffy have also won more stupid and ridiculous comebacks than most so I guess you live by the sword, you die by the sword. Still gonna pick them here though because if I don’t then it’s a guarantee that they win so might as well take my chances. The Vikings are 3-0 at home and 1-2 away as well which feels relevant.

Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 3

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-6)

Monday 6.00am NZT

Wildcard’s Pick: Jags by 9

Arizona Cardinals (2-3-1) at New York Giants (2-4)

Monday 6.00am NZT

Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 4

Miami Dolphins (0-5) at Buffalo Bills (4-1)

Monday 6.00am NZT

Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 14

Los Angeles Chargers (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (2-4)

Monday 9.05am NZT

Oh Marcus.

I guess we knew that this was a make or break year for him, the last one of his rookie contract and when you’re still trying to win the franchise over after four-plus years then you’d better bring something special. In Tennessee’s two wins this season he sort of has, both those games he threw three scores. But too many sacks and incompletions have followed him even in those good performances and with MM unable to alter games in which his team was losing the writing was kinda of the wall. Two picks against Denver and he was officially benched for Ryan Tannehill on Monday and soon enough Tannehill was confirmed as their starting QB moving forwards.

Awkward timing for Mariota too because what looked like a quarterback pool in transition has suddenly been shaken up by several backup QBs impressing already. There’s competition for places out there and several teams have more than one functionable quarterback. Remember when the Seattle Seahawks threw money at Matt Flynn (who? Exactly) after one decent start? Or the Denver Broncos giving bloody Brock Osweiler $32million guaranteed? Yeah that ain’t happening this offseason. Mariota’s old draft mate Jameis Winston is in a similar position too, by the way. Five picks for him last game has spoiled the resurgence he’d been on for a guy who remains perennially inconsistent. There are more decent available QBs than there are teams that need a new starting one so Mariota might wanna get used to the comforts of that bench, sadly. I’ve always quite liked him but I have to admit he’s never hit that next level and there’s only so long you can give a guy.

Speaking of Brock Osweiler, he just retired. And he’s retired an American hero for absolutely scamming the system, what a guy. Funny how America can be so full of con artists and hucksters who can luck their way into cash they didn’t exactly earn and yet they hate the idea of socialism so much, aye?

Good work if you can get it.

I have absolutely no idea what to do here. The Chargers have continually disappointed and keep on wrecking my picks but then there’s not a lot going for a Titans team that just got shut out either. This is why these picks haven’t been fun lately... what the hell am I supposed to do here? New quarterback bounce, perhaps? Well I guess it is the year of the backup quarterback. It’s as much logic as I can salvage in this cruel and chaotic world.

Here’s one for you non-existent Chargers fans...

Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 3

Baltimore Ravens (4-2) at Seattle Seahawks (5-1)

Monday 9.25am NZT

72.5% COMP | 1704 YDS | 14 TD | 0 INT | 124.7 RATE

People keep trying to talk up an MVP race with various candidates and I have to keep pointing out that there is only one candidate and it’s Russell Wilson. He’s far and away the most important and the best performing player in 2019. This is the year we’ll look back on after his career as the highlight. Like Brady in 2007 or Rodgers in 2011.

Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 6

New Orleans Saints (5-1) at Chicago Bears (3-2)

Monday 9.25am NZT

Something tells me there won’t be an abundance of points in this game. The Bears have one of the top defences out there, everybody knows it, but they also can’t really do much offensively at the moment with quarterback dramas and all that. Plus of course we’ve got two backups going at it here – granted Teddy Bridgewater is playing kinda great. Three starts and he’s won all three of them, two of those wins coming with only 12 or 13 points scored thanks to a defence which is really fantastic when they need to be. Marshon Lattimore and all that, ya know?

It’s crazy that with Drew Brees out the Saints have not only kept the ship steady but they’ve ground out some seriously impressive wins. And even if they lose here, which they might if Chicago are able to keep from shooting themselves in the foot on offence and bring put Teddy Bridgewater under some pressure, then they play Arizona next week before the bye. After which we get to reevaluate where Drew Brees is at and maybe he won’t be ready but if they’re at least 6-2 (leading into games against the Falcons and Buccs) then who really cares? Give Drew another fortnight to get perfect.

New Orleans are playing with house money right now. Chicago... not so much. Their defence is third in scoring but their offence is 27th out of 32 teams. They’re coming out of the bye so they might have some tricks up their sleeve but I suspect their prospects depend on getting David Montgomery going on the ground... except he’s averaging 3.3 yards per attempt so I dunno. The Saints have shown they can grind out close wins and the Bears are incapable of giving them any other kind of game than a close one.

Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 3

Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) at Dallas Cowboys (3-3)

Monday 1.20pm NZT

Nothing like a good old fashioned divisional panic game. Both the Eagles and the Cowboys are in a bit of a state these days and it pains me to have to admit that about dem ‘Boys but the bloody muppets couldn’t beat the Jets last week and okay the Jets turned it up like they hadn’t done all season but three defeats in a row, doesn’t matter how it happens you just gotta end that streak as soon as feasibly possible.

For the Eagles it’s clear that injuries are a major factor. Few teams have the depth to be able to deal with too many knocks and Philly are in a tricky position anyway because their pass rush might have stepped it up against the Jets (that’s the Luke Falk Jets, of course) but they were roasted again by Minnesota and what’s more is that their secondary got terribly exposed as well.

At 3-3 they’re still tied for the top of the NFC East and this game is basically the first leg of a playoff for the playoffs since these two each have too many problems to win a wildcard at this point to the division title really is everything... but Philly are also one game into a three game road stretch, having lost to the Vikings before this trip to Dallas and then the Bills away to follow. Buffalo are a rough team with a super defence. And when they finally get back home it’s against Chicago who are even rougher with an even super-er defence. Then the bye and then the Patriots and Seahawks both at home. That’s brutal.

For the Cowboys it’s different because it really feels like avoidable errors that are costing them. I know there are injuries there too with their receiving corps affected and Tyron Smith is an irreplaceable force in the offensive line too (he should be back for this one, fingers crossed). But they also have had this tendency the last two weeks to dig themselves these huge early holes and both times the second half comeback has fallen just short. Last week they were 7-3 down late in the second quarter and went for it on 4th & 2 when they could’ve popped a droppie to get within a point. Instead they fail on the conversion and Sam Darnold throws a 92-yard touchdown to Robby Anderson the very next play. Instead of trailing 7-6 they’re trailing 14-3. And it’s more than coaching because damn these guys drop a lot of passes. Dak Prescott has a season completion rate of 69.7% and yet still it feels like his guys drop three or four bad ones every week. Imagine the numbers if they could catch! Somehow they have to figure this out. My sanity depends on it.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 3, dammit!

New England Patriots (6-0) at New York Jets (1-4)

Tuesday 1.15pm NZT

You know, I was about to complain that this was another of the dud games this week but then I caught myself in the act because as much as I’m concerned about what the Cowboys have been doing, the Jets were genuinely impressive there and the Patriots haven’t quite been at the same pace lately. Well, their defence has been but Tom Brady’s been hurling a few crooked ones every now and then. Like, we’re seeing this a few times a game now. It’s becoming a thing.

And I still have mild PTSD from watching Greg Williams (who is a defensive genius by the way and we all forgot that because the Jets were playing without a living quarterback for a while there) orchestrate an utter beatdown of Dak Prescott. I mean, there should’ve been like four roughing the passer penalties at least but there weren’t and that’s Dak Prescott we’re talking about so if you get at Tom Brady in the same way... mate. That’s legit trouble. And even if Brady gets the ball out then Jamal Adams was insaaaaane against Dallas (although New England love their short completions, granted).

Then add in that Sam Darnold was genuinely impressive in his first game back after that whole mono debacle... I think the Jets are gonna frustrate a few more teams before this season is out is all I’ll say on the matter. Not gonna be a brave fella and pick them to win here or anything but they’ll keep it closer than people expect, particularly at home.

Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 6

BYE: Carolina Panthers (4-2), Cleveland Browns (2-4), Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) & Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4)

The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. At least that’s what it says on the business cards.

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