CAN WE STILL BLAME THIS ON THE KNEE?

We’re now fourteen games into the NBA season for the Oklahoma City Thunder and eleven games into Steven Adams’ own campaign. He missed two games with a knee contusion and then sat out a second game on the wrong end of a back to back a week or so later. That’s eleven games of evidence as to what’s going on and we’re still none the wiser. Kiwi Steve initially looked refreshed as he came back from that mini break (can we call it load management?) and scored in double digits in four straight games. But this last week he dropped back on those numbers, highlighted by a 2-point night against the Los Angeles Lakers – a season low for the big fella.

That Lakers game compounds a lot of the frustrations of this season. There’s now a three day break for the Thunder to tinker and adjust and for the fans to simmer. Adams started the game getting called for a travel. Soon after he slammed one down after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (who has the longest name in NBA history, apparently) nicked one away in the half-court and dished it quickly to Steve for the easy finish. A couple minutes later he missed consecutive tip-ins... and that was it. Not a single shot attempt after 8:43 to play in the first quarter. He’d play more than twenty additional minutes and to not even have another shot, like what’s going on there?

Part of it was that he had to sit watching on the bench throughout the fourth quarter as Nerlens Noel got the crunch time minutes at the five with Adams basically played off the court by Anthony Davis, a player he always seems to struggle against. Davis top scored in the game with 34 points including 3/5 from deep (it’s that range that makes him such a tough cover for Adams) but it’s more than that because Noel scored 15 points on 7/11 shooting. Fair play to Nerlens for delivering the goods but in equal minutes he had eight more shot attempts than Steven Adams and that’s kinda weird. Shots from two offensive rebounds and a fast break... Adams literally got NOTHING in the regular offensive sets. The fourth quarter benching was related to the knee injury as Billy Donovan later clarified but that doesn’t explain why Noel got that many more shots while he was out there.

Undoubtedly this has not been the production we anticipated from Steven Adams. 7.8 points on 50.6% shooting is a long way off the 16.0 points on 69.0% shooting he logged in three preseason games. You can say it’s a new team, new combinations and new teammates with new skillsets, but we’ve seen a glimpse of what he’s capable of alongside these guys and he simply hasn’t delivered on that promise yet in the real stuff. The knee is a factor. He’s apparently spending more time than usual on the ol’ exercise bike while off the court during games, which is common for him but you have to wonder if that’s injury related too. But is that this is or is he also just kinda struggling? He’s shooting free throws at 29% so there’s that too. That hasn’t changed after his rest days like his field goal percentage has. S’pose we’ve gotta wait and see, really.

There are lots of moving pieces to all this though, and one major one is that he’s not playing nearly as many minutes as he has done in the previous couple seasons. He finally logged 30+ for the first time this season but that was in an overtime win over the Philadelphia 76ers... in which he had a modest 7p/7r/4a but played great defence on Joel Embiid. But he AVERAGED 33:21 minutes last season and he hasn’t even touched that yet this time around. It’s a relief to hear Billy D admitting that he’s on a sort of unofficial minutes... not restriction but perhaps awareness... but it’s also a matchup thing as his devastating screen game isn’t as relevant without a downhill point guard like Russell Westbrook which means the bouncier Nerlens Noel has a few more upsides to him than in the past.

Adams is also having his minutes staggered in a different pattern, rather than playing a bulk of the first quarter, say 8-10 mins, then sitting out until about six left in the second. That was the pattern last season but now the rotations are quite different as Billy Donovan tries not to expose a vulnerable bench unit.

We keep it a hundy in these Kiwi Steve wraps, you know, so when we’re complaining about stats and talking about per game averages, we also have to admit that it’s obviously affected by the minutes that he plays. The numbers are disappointing compared to what he teased in the preseason but Adams’ per-36 min statties look a whole lot better...

10.7 PTS (50.6% FG) | 12.5 REB (3.9 OFF) | 3.6 AST | 1.9 TO | 2.4 PF

The scoring and shooting aren’t fantastic but remember he’s shooting at 66% since he had those two games off. Meanwhile those turnovers are consistent with where he’s been the last couple years, those fouls would be a career low, the assists are more than double his per-36 of 1.7 last season (a career best) and the rebounds, ah yes the rebounds...

THE REBOUNDING NUMBERS

Prior to the season, ESPN’s NBA mastermind Zach Lowe had this to say in his wild predictions column...

“Adams is the only player in history (minimum 5,000 minutes) to have rebounded at least 13% of his own team's misses and fewer than 16% of opponent misses. He is one of only 12 seven-footers with a career defensive-rebounding rate below 16.5%. The largest single-season jump in defensive rebounding rate in modern league history belongs to Ian Mahinmi, who upped his total by almost 11 percentage points between the 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons, per the gurus at ESPN Stats & Info. Adams could shatter that. He has to snare about 26% of enemy misses -- a mark that would have barely squeaked into the top 20 last season. Done. Trivia: Nos. 2 and 3 on the "rebounding jump" list behind Mahinmi are Westbrook in 2016-17 (his first triple-double season), and Enes Kanter the next season -- when Kanter moved from Westbrook's Thunder to the Knicks in the Carmelo Anthony trade.”

Now, he also predicted in his very next one on the list that both Steven Adams and Dennis Schröder would be traded by the time that next season’s free agency chaos settles down so make of that what you will but Zachy Boy’s getting into a theory here that many have long expounded upon: that Russell Westbrook stole rebounds from Steven Adams and other OKC big fellas. And here’s Zach Lowe’s colleague Royce Young with some more context to that whole thing...

“Last season, per Second Spectrum data, Adams ranked third in the league in total boxouts (713) and eighth in defensive boxouts (491), but 58th in defensive rebounds per game (Stephen Curry averaged more). Westbrook had 46 total boxouts last season yet pulled in 47 more total rebounds than Adams. Some of it was by design (it helped the Thunder play faster), some of it was just the nature in which Westbrook plays, some of it probably had at least a little something to do with round numbers and historical significance.”

That discrepancy was even more obvious in the relatively controlled situation of opposition free throws, where Adams had just two defensive rebounds from those situations while Russell Westbrook had NINETY-ONE. Well, that’s all changed now and Steven Adams, for better and worse, is freed from the both protective and controlling shadow of Russell Westbrook, a point guard he had spent his entire career with.

Steven Adams, speaking about rebounding post-Russ: “Now it's just a bit more traditional sort of joint: You rebound, try to find the closest guy to outlet. As opposed to Russ, bro, as soon as [teammates] see he had it, they're gone.”

Also Steven Adams, speaking about the adjustments to the new way of doing things and how old habits can die hard: "It's like my guy is over here, and I'm boxing him out so far, and the ball just hits the ground. Which, for a coach, is not a bad thing. But for practicality, obviously, someone needs to go get the fucking ball.”

So... how’s that pick from Zachy Boy looking right about now? Through those first eleven games Steven Adams has rebounded 23.3% of available defensive rebounds, a boost of 10% but not quite the doubling that would break him that record for best season to season jump. But he’s in range. If he’s able to play his way into more dominance as the knee strengthens back up again then this could definitely happen.

Curiously but probably not unexpectedly his offensive rebounding percentage has dropped in the process... although the home and away splits are crazy on that one as he’s grabbed more than twice the total offensive boards at home as he has away in one fewer games... which isn’t too shocking considering that OKC is 0-6 on the road so far so most stats will be skewed like that. Still a fair bit of ironing out to happen as the season settles down... but that defensive rebound percentage is gonna be a funky one to pay attention too.

STEVEN ADAMS, POINT GOD

Another aspect of his offensive contributions is that he’s been playing with the ball in his hands at the top of the key extremely regularly in OKC’s half-court sets. Handing off the ball and kicking it to cutters... a definite expansion from his usual role of setting mean as picks. That’s kinda dragging him away from the basket in a way that Nerlens Noel isn’t dealing with so it’s maybe another schematic thing that’s affecting the way he’s not scoring... but also it’s giving him the chance to do badass things like this...

And also this...

This one ain’t bad either...

Not to mention this...

Note where he’s setting up and making these passes from. This probably takes a small chunk out of his offensive boards too being further from the basket and all that. But he also drags oppo big men out which creates space for these guards (and Big Dan) to make those cuts and with Adams’ passing ability, long an underrated aspect of his game, he’s able to pick those jokers out. Possibly at the expense of his own shots too as he could be more selfish and put the ball on the deck and drive a couple of these times but okay, whatever floats the ol’ boat. Say what you will about his shooting but the lad is undercover thriving as a passer this season.

The more he plays, the more it’s becoming a real trademark too. His last three games saw him register 14 combined assists (and eight combined made field goals) including a new career-high of 6 against the Clippers... in just 27 minutes too. He’s playing with an unofficial minutes awareness and setting career-highs in assists. Get that into ya.

Top Assists Per Game from Centres This Season:

1. Nikola Jokic (DEN) – 6.0

2. Bam Adebayo (MIA) – 4.6

3. Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) – 3.8

4. Domantas Sabonis (IND) – 3.6

5. Nikola Vucevic (ORL) – 3.4

6. Aron Baynes (PHO) – 3.1

7. Andew Drummond (DET) – 3.0

8. Marc Gasol (TOR) – 3.0

9. Joel Embiid (PHI) – 2.9

10. Steven Adams (OKC) – 2.6

(Only Baynes, who is having a breakout year, is doing that in fewer minutes per game and since we know Adams is playing injured and that he should play more as he heals and considering he’s been trending upwards with at least four assists each in his last three... there you go)

And that doesn’t even include this one, as Abel Nader got the shot off after the buzzer (or it woulda been goal-tending)...

BOX SCORES

vs PHILADELPHIA 76ERS (W 127-119):

31 MIN | 7 PTS (3/6 FG, 1/2 FT) | 7 REB (4 OFF) | 4 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 1 TO | 2 PF

at LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (L 90-88):

27 MIN | 9 PTS (4/8 FG, 1/2 FT) | 10 REB (0 OFF) | 6 AST | 2 STL | 2 TO | 2 PF

at LOS ANGELES LAKERS (L 112-107):

24 MIN | 2 PTS (1/3 FG) | 6 REB (2 OFF) | 4 AST | 2 TO | 2 PF

THE SCHEDULE

vs LOS ANGELES LAKERS, Saturday at 2pm (NZT)

at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS, Tuesday at 4.30pm (NZT)

at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS, Thursday at 4pm (NZT)

vs NEW ORLEANS PELICANS, Saturday at 2pm (NZT)

SLAM DUNKS

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