With a 4-10 record at the half-way stage of their season, it’s pretty unlikely that the Breakers make the semis from here. They’re four back in the win-column from fourth place and second to last on the ladder. Catching up that much ground is a herculean task which, while not completely out of the question thanks to the talent on this roster, they’ve shown next to nothing to suggest they’re capable of. They’d probably need to win at least 10 of their last 14 games, possibly even 11 or 12, and this is a team whose away record has been absolutely disgusting so far.

What does it take to be classified as absolutely disgusting, you may ask? Well 0-6 with a points differential of -82 surely does the trick. They’ve lost their last four road games by double digits and their defence is leaking close to 103 points per contest (compared to 85.5ppg at home). 103 points is a total they’ve only reached themselves on one occasion this season (the 103-72 demolition of the last-placed Hawks back in October at Spark Arena) yet that’s what other teams are averaging against them in away games. And guess what? After the game on Friday night against South East Melbourne they’ve got five consecutive away games on the schedule so by the end of that stretch it probably won’t matter what else is left.

All of which makes this a particularly odd time to be announcing that you’ve picked up the third year option on your new coach’s contract, right?

The intentions here are pretty solid. There’s been all manner of biblical chaos raining down upon the Breakers in recent times, much of it of their own making, much of it not. Any kind of continuity and stability is a good thing right now and that’s the whole purpose of this move – it’s a commitment to the current coaching set up for the long term (yes, three years in basketball counts as long term, it’s its own little ecosystem). Or to paraphrase Forrest Gump: one less thing to worry about.

This means that Shamir will remain at the club for the next two seasons following this one, and so will his right hand man Mody Maor who has also been extended. For a bit of context, the only players currently contracted beyond this season are Tom Abercrombie, Corey Webster, and RJ Hampton. And we all know RJ ain’t coming back – they only gave him a two-year deal so they’d get compensation from the NBA if/when he’s drafted.

As for the timing of the announcement, it probably had something to do with offsetting this subsequent news…

The specifics here are kinda interesting, as Webster’s had the rest of this season bought out but has also signed a two-year extension with the Breakers to keep him in town once he returns from China next April for the following three seasons (one beyond Shamir, as it stands). It doesn’t take a mastermind to figure there’s a bit of reward here for Webster sticking it out after the Turkey offer was rejected, with the Breakers allowing him to pursue a hefty payday having this time gotten the cash back they required (think of it like a transfer fee in football) – and in a show of good faith ol’ Corey’s signed on for those extra two years. Set up his family financially and then return home. Sweet as.

Which is all well and good but it signals a rather sudden shift from the Breakers’ perspective. Ethan Rusbatch has been promoted into CW’s roster spot which means that in effect they aren’t even replacing Webster, just absorbing his loss as if he was still out injured. Up until now almost everything this club had done this year was for immediate short-term win-now gain – how the hell else can you ever justify the Glen Rice Jr signing? - but letting your best local player walk in the middle of what had been a magnificent season from him (19.6pts/4.3ast/3.8reb/44%fg) and out of the blue locking down a long term coaching crew tells you two things:

1) This season is gone, dead, kaput, pining for the fjords.

2) In light of 1, the priority has shifted into next season and beyond.

Getting Webster penned in for the future is a no-brainer. There’s really nothing more to say about that. It’s the Dan Shamir thing that has me pondering because there’s years of evidence of Corey Webster being successful in this league but there’s none of that for Shamir. It’s not so much a question of whether Dan Shamir is a good coach or not, good coaching is such a fickle thing with all the moving parts that surround it, the question is more about whether Dan Shamir is the right coach for this team and that’s simply not one anybody can answer yet.

Obviously Matt Walsh believes he is, that’s why he’s gone ahead and pulled the trigger on this contract option now. Shamir was pretty much hand-picked by the Breakers for this gig after they chucked Kevin Braswell out onto the streets, plucked from the Israeli league where he’d spent the majority of his career to date. If they scouted as far and wide as to hire a guy out of Israel then most leagues below the NBA and EuroLeague would have been within reach so Shamir clearly ticked a number of boxes here. Kirk Penney was impressed by him when he played for Shamir back in the day. That’s a pretty magnificent reference right there. And for all the messiness of this season it seems like the players are enjoying themselves, spreading the good vibes, which reflects nicely upon the decision to keep Shamir around.

But the on-court stuff doesn’t. The 4-10 record is skewed by the ungodly number of injuries that this team has had to deal with and that makes everything tricky to judge. Shamir’s rotations have been all over the place this season. Guys like Tom Vodanovich, Ater Majok, Ethan Rusbatch, and Jordan Ngatai – even Jarrad Weeks to be honest – have seen their minutes fluctuate pretty drastically, like beyond the realms that role players normally have to deal with... but then only Sek Henry, Brandon Ashley, and Tom Abercrombie have played every game so that’s not really that enlightening.

Stylistically it’s a work in progress too. There are hints of a slick passing team in there but when the Breakers need to manufacture shots, it tends to crumble into isolation play as Scotty Hopson, Corey Webster, and for a short amount of time Glen Rice Jr, take over (guess it’s all on Scotty now). Never was that more infuriating than when Rice came back from his suspension and took 26 shots in 30 minutes (for 30 points) in a hiding away to the Cairns Taipans in which Tom Abercrombie and Finn Delany combined to shoot 0/3 (admittedly both with foul trouble). They were short-handed that day but Rice had trained ONCE since being unsuspended. One training session. Then the entire bloody offence was just handed over to him. It made absolutely no sense and, honestly, that kind of throw your cares to the wind approach reflects terribly upon Dan Shamir. Especially when he’s a fella who so often talks about process and foundations.

This guy had basically only ever coached in Israel though (other than a couple brief stints as an assistant in Russia – although that’s according to his wikipedia page which also claims he spent a year “entraining” under Rick Pitino at the University of Kentucky which “according to him affected him dearly” and we now know that was about as accurate as a horny teenager claiming they’re dating Margot Robbie because they watched Wolf of Wall Street a couple times). What’s the Israeli basketball team like? It’s okay. But it’s not as good as New Zealand’s and nowhere near as good as Australia’s. Israel hasn’t qualified for the World Cup since 1986 and the Olympics since 1952. They’re ranked 42 in the world by FIBA, one spot behind Great Britain and one ahead of Uruguay (NZ are 24th). Yet the calibre of imports over there in the Israeli Premier League seems to be pretty excellent, so maybe this thing of letting your best players completely run the show is just the done thing over there, who knows. But that ain’t gonna fly in the NBL matey.

The Breakers are worst in the league for rebound percentage. Third worst for assist percentage. Third worst in turnover percentage. Fourth worst in true shooting percentage. Third worst in Offensive/Defensive ratings differential. They tend to be a streaky team, down by 20 one minute then next minute they’re shooting for the lead and vice versa. There’s very little consistency out there. The win over Brisbane two games ago was a gorgeous blueprint of what this team can look like at their best and they followed that up by conceding 35 points in the opening quarter against Adelaide at home (in a game they again came all the way back in to only lose to some late heroics from Jerome Randle).

None of this is meant to suggest that Dan Shamir is out of his depth or anything. More that it’s just way too early to make any judgements like that. There have been injury crises, off-court dramas, there’s a natural cultural adjustment at play... way too many other factors involved. Planning for the future is good, it’s a welcome change for the Breakers, but it sends a weird message to throw this much support behind a 4-10 coach regardless of those mitigating factors... especially when the previous coach was made redundant after a 12-16 season. Will the hand-picked Dan Shamir be held to the same standards as Kevin Braswell was? Clearly not. The club are currently on pace for their worst ever season in terms of win percentage and the coach just got his contract option picked up.

I like Dan Shamir though. He’s handled himself supremely well considering some of the difficulties he’s had to preside over and he’s good value with his chat too. Amidst what’s been a barrage of club-friendly positivity from the Breakers media crew this season (#UNBREAKABLE!), which has wavered between defiantly brash to hilariously tone-deaf depending on whatever new drama they’re dealing with at the time, it’s always a laugh to see Dan Shamir pop up with one of his pragmatic and honest shrug-of-the-shoulders quotes admitting to all the struggles in a way that pretty much contradicts his own team’s company line.

And tell ya what else, since they have gone down this path it’s absolutely the right decision to give assistant coach Mody Maor a mirrored extension as well. Can’t argue with that one at all, there’s a dynamic those two seems to have, a sort of good cop/bad cop if you will (or more accurately a crazy cop/subdued cop) which comes from familiarity. No reason not to ride that wave.

A lot of people who know a lot about basketball have said that Dan Shamir knows a lot about basketball. So far that hasn’t translated into wins but he should have more of a chance with a full preseason, a more settled roster, and a more stable organisation next season and the one after. That’s what the Breakers are putting their faith in by throwing up a major show of support his way like this. Until we see some consistent wins though, that’s all this is: faith. Because at 4-10 having just let a top scorer leave and with all the disruptions that’ve been going on all season there’s not a lot else to go on.

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