The Wildcard’s NFL Picks - Week 17
Last Week: 11-5
Season: 153-86-1
Green Bay Packers (12-3) at Detroit Lions (3-11-1)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Well, here we are. Seventeen weeks deep into what’s been a crazy and unpredictable season. For all but twelve teams it ends right here, for those twelve playoff bound franchises it’s only just beginning. Which means that the picks are gonna be chaos as teams rest players for the postseason or players coming off contract make that last big push for a new deal and whatever else goes on in the final round of the regular season which doesn’t really affect the bigger picture. Coaches giving up because they’ve already been as good as sacked... I can think of at least two of those immediately. But mostly this is just a nice way to say farewell. And to be grateful for the 2019 season that was. A season which has given us...
Antonio Brown’s preseason meltdown
Andrew Luck’s retirement
Lamar Jackson
The Steelers-Browns brawl
The Patriots videotaping scandal
Backup quarterbacks dominating all over the show
Michael Thomas breaking the receptions record
... I dunno, heaps else too but I’m not gonna go through it all. You were there too. You remember. Here’s a funny video...
I’m ready for this. I’m ready for the season to end now, the Dallas Cowboys have dragged me over burning coals for months now and I need that sweet release of finality. I also want the incredible spectacle of the playoffs to hurry on up and these Green Bay Packers are one team that’s poised to go a long way. With a nice win over Minnesota last week they’ve booked the division but they still need to win this one to get that crucial first round bye. A win and the Packers will be either first or second seed depending on if the Seahawks beat the 49ers or not (Seahawks and Packers win, Packers are first, Packers and Niners win, Niners are first). If GBP loses here they could drop to third if the Saints also win.
But lucky for Aaron Rodgers the Lions are a mess of a team who year after year can’t seem to find the right balance. We’ve seen them with Matt Stafford hurling the ball for 5000 yards year after year, we’ve seen them use Staffy as a pocket passer over the middle and try push a rush game, we’ve seen this year something better in between... but they still keep losing. Clearly Matt Patricia and his sharpened pencil (I respect a man who uses pencil, shows he’s humble enough to accept he makes mistakes) aren’t doing any better than a long list of struggling Lions coaches before him. I dunno what the answer is, they had nine years of Calvin Megatron Johnson, one of the great receivers of all time, and Megatron only ever played two playoff games. As always they’re not a mile off being competitive and a healthy quarterback would definitely help but yeah they’re one of them teams that can’t wait for it all to be over. A loss here and they close 2019 on a nine-game losing streak.
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 14
New York Jets (6-9) at Buffalo Bills (10-5)
Monday 7.00am NZT
The Bills have done fantastically to maximise the talent on this roster and surge on into the playoffs but this game means literally nothing. They can’t finish outside the fifth seed which means they’ll play either the Kansas City Chiefs or the Houston Texans, the latter definitely being the preferable option, and that’ll be a road game too... although they are 6-2 on the road in 2019 so maybe not. Maybe the underdog tag is exactly what they want. It’s been a soft schedule what with four games against the Jets and Dolphins accounting for four wins... but they’ve also made the Ravens and Patriots work for it, losing three times to that pair but all by seven points or less.
This is the second ranked defence in the league for points allowed, though I’m still not convinced they could contain Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson in the playoffs. That’s a different matter entirely. Playoff games get crazy and points start flying. Josh Allen doesn’t have the game to keep up with that and close losses to top seeds sorta indicate the way this Bills team is destined to end their season. Still, just making the playoffs is already a big achievement for Sean McDermott’s lot. This is a solid platform to build from, with trusting leadership and plans in place to keep them competitive for years to follow. Which is plenty more than you can say about the Jets. #FreeLeVeon.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 3
Miami Dolphins (4-11) at New England Patriots (12-3)
Monday 7.00am NZT
There you go. That’s enough Pats chat for now.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 10
Chicago Bears (7-8) at Minnesota Vikings (10-5)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Guaranteed sixth seed for the Vikes, nothing they can do about it. Might as well rest a few jokers because they’re probably playing away to the New Orleans Saints or San Francisco 49ers if things work out as expected and considering what Kirk Cousins’ record is like when the cameras are on him that’s not gonna be easy. Personally I’m hoping for the Saints because it’ll mean a revenge game for New Orleans after this old chestnut from two years ago...
Still one of the great bonkers plays. Steffon Diggs with that catch down the sideline, Marshon Lattimore losing him badly, and he ran it in to score the winner as time expired. Considering the Saints had that pass interference no call that literally led to a rule change last year the list of playoff revenge targets is pretty long for Sean Payton and all that lot.
Tell you what though, this is the third year in five that Mike Zimmer has taken the Vikings to the playoffs and he’s had a different quarterback each time: Teddy Bridgewater, Case Keenum, and now Kirk Cousins. Cousins who has already confirmed will be rested for this game, along with most of their starters which gives the Bears a nice chance to at least finish with an even record. There’s not a lot more to say on Chicago but this offseason is gonna be fascinating for them in terms of what decisions they’re willing to make. Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. Matt Nagy as head coach. Even Ryan Pace as GM. Who gets held accountable? What positions do they target in free agency/draft? It’ll be pretty wild to follow because there’s no easy answer to any of the questions they need to ask themselves.
It’s a very close situation to the Cowboys in that they have so much talent which wasn’t unlocked in 2019... but at least Dallas knows they can trust their QB and the coaching thing is helped by Garrett coming off contract (whether or not Jerry is willing to fire him after this travesty, he surely can’t justify extending him). The Carolina Panthers and LA Chargers are also in for intriguing offseasons for similar reasons. But the Bears can’t so easily pinpoint their issues. Basically everything they planned on went wrong and that meant cause and effect dramas all over the show. Like, Kyle Long going on IR in week five. Messed up their O-Line plans completely. They thought rookie David Montgomery could be the guy at running back and he just wasn’t, although he’s still young and it’s not like he was alone in struggling. Trubisky had that injury for a while there. When he came back he also didn’t have much of a tight end crew to work with which is clearly a position that Nagy’s offence is built to rely upon. Trey Burton dealing with injuries. All these things affect each other. Hence it’s hard to figure what was just fluke and what’s broken process with this team. Like I say, it’ll be fascinating to see what the offseason approach is.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bears by 6
Los Angeles Chargers (5-10) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-4)
Monday 7.00am NZT
That’s just in case you didn’t realise that the reigning MVP is peaking beautifully ahead of the playoffs. He hasn’t been putting up the volume numbers that he did last year and early on this year but since he came back from that injury he’s still cheekily thrown 279.5 yards per game with 10 TDs and 3 INTs, a completion of 66.97% and a rating of 99.5. The Chiefs have been working through things but they’ve won five in a row now, including three wins by 20+ points and a triumph over the Patriots. This team is simmering nicely.
The Chiefs can finish anywhere between second and fourth in the AFC, although to get second they’d need the Patriots to lose at home against the Dolphins and that’s not happening. They’ve already locked in a home playoff game by winning the AFC West though. Against either the Bills or whoever comes out of the Steelers/Titans/Raiders/Colts mess for the second wildcard. Nothing there that Andy Reid’s team needs to fear too much – both divisions have probably four teams that are just clearly a step above. The divisional games are going to be incredible but the wildcard round maybe not so much, to be fair.
Hypothetical Question: Will this be Philip Rivers’ last game for the Chargers?
Oooh, tell you what else, I was sick for a bit late last week which meant nothing much to do and I was able to find the three and a half hours it takes to watch The Irishman – which I bring up because I mentioned it last week – and dude it’s incredible. Such a great movie, well worth the run time and the de-ageing stuff isn’t distracting at all. Noticeable, sure, but it sort of adds to the glamour of the film in a funny way. It’s more the physical acting where you see the cracks in the process, when a clearly 75 year old Bob DeNiro is beating a bastard up and he still has the mannerisms of an old man. But you go along with it willingly when it’s such a good story, told by a master and acted by a trilogy of the greatest ever. Joe Pesci, let me tell ya. It is what it is. What a performance.
I don’t watch enough films as they come out to write a definitive list here but of the ones I’ve seen, these are my best movies of 2019...
Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
The Irishman
Parasite
Rocketman
Marriage Story
[Spot reserved for Knives Out]
[Spot reserved for Midsommar]
Us
[Spot reserved for Little Women]
[Spot reserved for Uncut Gems]
I’m also gonna try catch up on a few undercover ones over the summer. Last Black Man in San Francisco sounds awesome, and I’m pretty sure Booksmart and Ready or Not have potential. Jojo Rabbit is another, gotta support the compatriot. And The Lighthouse is on my list too. As is Portrait of a Lady on Fire. Her Smell is another I only just heard about but wanna check out. And, no, I didn’t like Joker. Too bleak and nowhere near as smart as it thought it was (but stunningly made and acted) and as for the new Star Wars I’ll be writing about it when I get my head around it eventually.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 11
Cleveland Browns (6-9) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-14)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Baker Mayfield kinda sucks, doesn’t he?
2nd in interceptions (tied with Philip Rivers but with fewer pass attempts)
27th in touchdown percentage
19th in yards per game (235.4)
28th in adjusted yards per attempt (6.1)
And worst of all he’s 31st in passer rating this season, ahead of only Andy Dalton amongst qualified players, behind Kyle Allen, Mason Rudolph, Mitch Trubisky, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Joe Flacco, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, etc. A lot of the dumbness in Cleveland starts with poor coaching but Freddie Kitchens has improved as the season’s gone along. Baker Mayfield has not and you have to wonder whether he might soon be the bigger problem here. He’s thrown picks in all but three games this year. He’s only thrown 300 yards in a game twice and has been held under 200 seven times including three of his last four games.
Mayfield in 2018: 14 GM | 63.8% COMP | 3725 YDS | 27 TD | 14 INT | 7.5 AY/A | 93.7 RATE
Mayfield in 2019: 15 GM | 60.2% COMP | 3548 YDS | 19 TD | 18 INT | 6.1 AY/A | 79.1 RATE
That ain’t meant to happen. Although having said all that, he’s about to be the first Browns quarterback since Tim Couch 18 years ago to start all 16 games in a season so that’s something. There’s no chance of them cutting him lose for 2020, he just has to be a lot better is all. There are too many great players around him for him not to be, surely.
Speaking of the Browns, one of my best picks all season was that this team would miss the playoffs back before the season started and people were genuinely being swept up in the hype of that roster. Here were my preseason guesses from my week one picks...
AFC DIVISION WINNERS: New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans & Kansas City Chiefs
AFC WILDCARDS: Los Angeles Chargers & Pittsburgh Steelers
NFC DIVISION WINNERS: Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams
NFC WILDCARDS: Philadelphia Eagles & Seattle Seahawks
SUPER BOWL: New Orleans Saints beat Los Angeles Chargers
MVP: Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals)
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Joey Bosa (LA Chargers)
COACH OF THE YEAR: John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens)
COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Le’Veon Bell (NY Jets)
A few dodgy ones in there, sure, but pretty proud of myself for getting on the Ravens bandwagon before all the rest of you, take that aye? I’ll ignore the Chargers thing... but Saints in the big dance is a decent shout still. Harbaugh should defs win COY and Kyler Murray the ROY. Wilson won’t win MVP but he’s in the convo and it looks like I’ll have 6/8 division winners. Not bad, all up. If I do say so myself.
Wildcard’s Pick: Browns by 7
New Orleans Saints (12-3) at Carolina Panthers (5-10)
Monday 7.00am NZT
He had two games to make 11 catches and break the record for receptions in a season and he did it in one. 12 catches for 136 yards with a score last week, his third straight game with at least 11 catches, 120+ yards, and a score. Also his eighth 100+ yard game in his past nine. You can’t guard Mike, it’s just a fact these days and the Saints are looking extremely sharp as the playoffs come round the mountain. They’ve won five of six with the lone defeat being a 48-46 shootout versus another team in the hunt for the top seed. Now Thommo gets one last chance to add to his record. 1800 yards for the season is in sight with 112 more against the Panthers. And 150 receptions in a year, goddamn.
And look, he’s an absolute champ off the park too...
The Saints need the Niners and Packers to lose for them to finish first, but that’s possible. Almost as good would be one of them losing because that’d still get them a bye with a win here and I mean this one is basically a sitter with the Panthers long side phoned in for 2019. They basically had their New Years party in November. And last week they started a guy called Will Grier who was a third round pick and threw three picks on debut. Plus he’s got one of them Amish beards which means he looks too much like Ryan Fitzpatrick for anyone to take him seriously. But gotta keep in mind for the Panthers that Cam Newton never played a healthy game all year and he’s the guy in Carolina, no matter what anyone says.
Also of note for the Saints is that Alvin Kamara got into the endzone last week. He’s had a dud season compared to how good he was his first two years in the league, injuries not helping that of course, and he still doesn’t have a hundy yard rush day this year. Prior to his two scores against the Titans in week 16 he only had two touchdowns all season and they came way back in week three. Getting him going, that’s huge. They’ll need him in the playoffs.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 17
Atlanta Falcons (5-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Oh mate we got an absolute Jameis Winston masterclass against Houston a week ago. The interceptions, the touchdowns, the interceptions, the passing yards, the interceptions! He delivered them all in the way he’s been doing almost every week lately. He’s less than 100 yards away from joining the 5000 yard club and he’s two picks away from inventing the 30/30 TD & INT club. A few weeks ago these ridiculous numbers felt sad, like why are they persisting with this guy when there’s no way you can win playing this way, especially sad for Bruce Arians who CAME OUT OF RETIREMENT FOR THIS. But now it’s the second most fascinating thing happening this final week after the Niners-Seahawks game. Two more picks, bro. Don’t let us down!
The Ringer: “He has thrown 28 interceptions, more than any player has thrown since 2005. Nobody else in 2019 even has 20. If he throws two interceptions in his final game, Winston will become the first NFL QB since 1980 with 30 picks in a single season, and the first QB ever with 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. When Winston threw a pick-six to open last Saturday’s game against the Texans, it was the sixth of his season—tying a record for the most of all time.
Winston has thrown an interception on his very first pass of the game four times this year. Five times, he’s thrown at least three interceptions in a game. He’s doing this in an era when the league’s best quarterbacks barely throw interceptions at all. If you added up all the interceptions thrown this year by Tom Brady (seven), Drew Brees (four), Lamar Jackson (six), Patrick Mahomes (four), Aaron Rodgers (three), and Russell Wilson (five), you get 29—only one more than Winston has thrown by himself.”
It’s performance art, it really is. This is a contract year for him too.
Just quietly, Julio Jones has 23 catches for exactly 300 receiving yards and 2 TDs these last two weeks. It’s been a quiet one for him in 2019 as the Falcons have struggled and the two scores he had two weeks back ended a nine game streak without getting into the endzone but despite five games with less than 70 yards he’s still gotten along to 92 catches and 1316 yards this season. That’s third most yards in the league behind Michael Thomas, of course... and also Chris Godwin of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Every game involving the Buccs ends up as a shootout. This one’ll be very fun (as long as Jones is healthy, he’s got a knee thing but is expected to kit up).
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 6
Indianapolis Colts (7-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10)
Monday 10.25am NZT
And that’s all we have for you tonight folks from this edition of ‘News That Isn’t Really News’.
Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 8
Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) at New York Giants (4-11)
Monday 10.25am NZT
(poor Jerry Jones…)
Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 10
Arizona Cardinals (5-9-1) at Los Angeles Rams (8-7)
Monday 10.25am NZT
This is a pretty rank game... but it could be the last ever game for Larry Fitzgerald so gotta keep an eye out for this one on Redzone. The second all time in receptions and receiving yards and an absolute top bloke too... he’s not one to talk too much about himself so even the Cardies don’t know if he’s coming back or not. He might not even have decided. But the 36 year old’s on the clock so keep an eye out.
This is also the Rams’ final game at the LA Coliseum before moving into their flash new stadium next year. So that’s cool.
Oh and Chandler Jones had four sacks last week to take him up to 19.0 for the season which has him in a very outside chance of breaking Michael Strahan’s record of 22.5 in a single year. Aaron Donald will be on the other side, he had 20.5 sacks last season. Jared Goff’s not one to be sacked too often though. Only 21 times this season. They can’t block too well these days, the Rams, but their quarterback for all his faults does get the ball out quick.
Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 7
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7) at Baltimore Ravens (13-2)
Monday 10.25am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 14, even if they do rest the MV
Oakland Raiders (7-8) at Denver Broncos (6-9)
Monday 10.25am NZT
This is actually incredible, because right now the Raiders look like they might even do it. There are two teams on eight wins in the AFC but the Titans are away to the Texans and the Steelers are away to the Ravens. Rested players and week 17 typicalities mean that no games are likely to go to perfect script but here’s what the Raiders need from this final week to make it...
Beat the Broncos, pretty obviously
Titans lose to the Texans
Steelers lose to the Ravens
Colts win vs the Jaguars
That last one is to pump up the tiebreakers I think, since the Colts would move to 8-8 and the Raiders have already beaten them. Four teams at 8-8 and the Raiders would sneak through with the best common record having already beaten Colts (and lost to the Titans). Or something like that, people well above my paygrade get to work it all out and I just go with the flow. But all four of those things are in the mix... in fact the least likely one is probably the only one they can control because the Raiders are without Josh Jacobs at RB and the Broncos have been good at home since Drew Lock stepped in there. He’s got a 3-1 record as an NFL starter now including two wins outta two at home against the Chargers and Lions.
The Raiders have a -105 points differential and might still make the playoffs. Even the Jets and Cardinals are better than that. You have to drop down to the 5-10 Jaguars for a worse number and we all know they’ve fallen off a cliff this last month. Then the R*dskins, Dolphins, and Bengals are the only others with a worse points differential.
Wildcard’s Pick: Broncos by 3
Tennessee Titans (8-7) at Houston Texans (10-5)
Monday 10.25am NZT
Quite a few interesting scenarios here. First being that the Texans beat the Titans to take full control of the division a couple weeks ago and they did it rather comfortably too under the circumstances. Which means that the Titans are playing for a wildcard spot only... whereas the Texans are in limbo because a win and they might get as high as the third seed however if the Chiefs win in the earlier window then the Texans are fourth regardless and might rest their dudes last minute.
Meanwhile the Titans can make the playoffs as the second wildcard under these circumstances...
Win against the Texans
Tie against the Texans and have the Steelers lose or tie
Lose against the Texans but have the Steelers and Colts both lose
They’re the favourites for that spot despite what a crazy story it’d be with the Raiders and that’s fair enough too because the Titans are easily the best of the rest, easily the team that would offer the most to the playoffs. They’ve been such an enjoyable story. Completely swinging on a 180 since Ryan Tannehill stepped into the starting gig and reminded everyone what an accurate and clever passer he is and in the process absolutely dumped on the Dolphins for wasting his early career (although injuries were the major factor, let’s be honest). Tannehill threw another three scores against the Saints last week, even if the Titans still lost.
Ryan Tannehill in 2019: 70.7% COMP | 2544 YDS | 20 TD | 6 INT | 10.1 AY/A | 116.5 RATE
Quite a few career highs in those numbers. This bloke just earned himself a big old contract extension and he might yet get a chance to do it in the playoffs too. It’s all tough to forecast for obvious reasons and all things being equal the Texans are definitely the better side... but will they be at full strength here? Will the Titans even be themselves? Derrick Henry is questionable at the moment and he’s been on a whole new level, unlocked by Tannehill’s deep threat stretching out defences... the last five weeks Henry has 685 yards at 6.4 per attempt with 7 touchdowns. I reckon I’ll bank on that Chiefs win I’ve already predicted and say the Texans rest a couple injury-prone stars for the one that really matters. And even if they don’t the Colts and Steelers could easily lose.
Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 5
Washington R*dskins (3-12) at Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
Monday 10.25am NZT
I don’t want to talk about it.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 6
San Francisco 49ers (12-3) at Seattle Seahawks (11-4
Monday 2.20pm NZT
That was lovely, wasn’t it? So is this...
Love it. Really love it. Marshawn Lynch coming back for the fairytale finish, just imagine if they have a first and goal on the one yard line with Lynch in the team.... in the last minute of the Super Bowl... it would be the most poetic thing to ever happen in the NFL, don’t even think about it. I only just found out last week that there’s a documentary about Beastmode too, it’s called Lynch: A History, and I shall certainly need to check that one out, Lynch is easily one of the most fascinating folks the NFL has seen over the last decade.
Right. Okay now. We’re almost done for the year with the NFL picks, I don’t know what to say. I’m a little tore up now. These two teams are jostling for playoff seeding, they’re division rivals, they went to overtime last time they played... that’s all the hype you need right there. Easily the best game of this final week. And as such i just can’t wait to sit back and adore it. The playoffs too, there’s no point me predicting them because they’re too unpredictable. It’s the best all around entertainment that American sports have to offer (the NBA is more consistently great but only in game sevens do they touch the sheer wildness of the NFL playoffs). So cheers for reading over another wonderful season, we’ll do it all again next year. Bring on them playoffs.
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 3... again
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. He’s all out of words.
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