Last Week: 10-4

Season: 72-32-1

Atlanta Falcons (1-6) at Carolina Panthers (3-4)

Friday 1.20pm NZT

I’m sorry but the end of that Falcons-Lions game was just too funny. Todd Gurley with the accidental touchdown, trying to stop himself from falling into the end zone but the ball just edging over the plane as he hit the deck and defensive players started signalling for the score against them. When all he needed to do was be tackled inbounds and they coulda wound the clock all the way down for the game winning field goal, which would’ve been a chip shot. Closer than an extra point. But nope that doesn’t happen and then of course the Lions storm down the field thanks to Matty Stafford and Kenny Golladay and they rip off the winning touchdown on the final play of the match... outrageous.

Add it to the list of hilarious Falcons defeats this season. Add it to the all-time list of hilarious defeats along with the onside kick defeat against the Cowboys... two heartbreaking chokes in the same season. Don’t even really know what to say about that Atlanta team, they’ve already done the coach sacking thing, not really sure what else they can do short of ripping it all up and starting over again. Which isn’t necessarily what you wanna do if you have a former MVP quarterback still playing pretty goof in his mid-30s... there’s still a window there. I will say also that blaming Gurley exclusively for that loss is more than harsh. What he did was rather dumb but that defence still got slashed up when the Lions had basically no room for error. They should still have won even after the accidental touchdown.

There was talk that Christian McCaffrey might be back for this one, just in time for the Panthers who have lost two close ones in recent weeks to the Bears and Saints (a couple mostly strong, if flawed, teams). They also beat the Falcons 23-16 when they faced off a few weeks back with Teddy Bridgewater throwing for 313 yards and 2 touchdowns. As it happens, CMC will have to wait ‘til next week because he wasn’t activated... but regardless, how am I supposed to pick the Falcons ever again this season?

Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 7

New England Patriots (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (5-2)

Monday 7.00am NZT

I couldn’t tell ya what’s wrong with the Patriots. A couple weeks ago I’d have said: nothing. But three losses in a row ending in that complete and utter 33-6 dismantling by a banged-up 49ers team (albeit they’re getting a few blokes back now) has changed that whole perspective. Clearly things ain’t what they oughta be, what they usually are, in New England. Seems like Tom Brady probably got out at the right time. Funny thing about that is it kinda seems like that was Bill Belichick’s decision more than Tom Brady’s decision. Oh well. We all know who to blame for that one...

The obvious issue is that Cam Newton has not played very well these last couple games. A strange one given that he started the season so damn well... now he’s talking about treating this game like his job is in jeopardy. What’s changed? Well he did kinda have coronavirus in the middle of those two stretches... both he and Belichick have said there are no lingering after-effects of the illness with Cam but it’s worth bearing in mind. These things aren’t always simple.

Cam Newton Pre-Covid:

68.1% COMP | 238 YDS/GM | 2 TD | 2 INT | 89.7 RATE | 7.3 AY/A | 5 SACK | 4 RUSH TD

Cam Newton Post-Covid:

65.0% COMP | 127.5 YDS/GM | 0 TD | 5 INT | 43.2 RATE | 0.75 AY/A | 5 SACK | 1 RUSH TD

The interceptions are the key. There are little things like prolonging plays leading to sacks and pressures but it’s the turnovers that are killing things. Also fair to point out that the Broncos and Niners have two excellent defences, whereas the teams he played in those first three games (Miami, Seattle, Las Vegas) have all been very good but are skewed towards their offences. So the schedule's also been tricky. I figure Newton swings back in the other direction here against a somewhat overrated Bills defence (overrated because of past reputation).

Should be a curious game to tell ya the truth. Cam Newton and Josh Allen have a lot in common as quarterbacks and Allen’s been on a drought himself lately after that sizzling start. His last three games his yardage has dropped and he’s thrown three picks and lost a fumble. But despite not scoring a single touchdown he and his Bills rallied to beat the Jets 18-10 in week seven on the back of SI X field goals from Tyler Bass... who hasn’t even been that good this year, tbh. He’s missed an extra point and is only 9/14 on kicks field goals longer than 30 yards (including two misses against the Jets). But the life of a kicker is a weird one, you take the glory wherever you can find it because the shame is never far away.

Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 3

Tennessee Titans (5-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-5-1)

Monday 7.00am NZT

They might have lost (to one of about three absolutely incredible simultaneous finishes – Baker Mayfield’s touchdown pass down the right edge, opponents here Tennessee’s missed field goal, and of course the accidental touchdown of Atlanta’s) but Joe Burrow threw 406 yards with 3 touchdowns and a pick last week. With an additional rushing TD. And a Passer rating of 112.5. He’s looking rather good considering that ain’t the flashest roster that surrounds him. Burrow already has five games of 300+ passing yardage and he’s only seven NFL matches into his career.

A couple rookie season passing records that Burrow is on pace to break:

• Most Total Passing Yards: 4374 by Andrew Luck in 2012

• Most 300 yard passing games: 6 by Andrew Luck in 2012

I forget sometimes that AJ Brown is only 23 years old. Partly because he’s a wideout named AJ so I get him confused with AJ Green of these Bengals... at least for now he’s of these Bengals. He’s been in and out with injury in 2020 though has caught 15 passes for 178 yards in the last two weeks but yeah he makes sense as a trade candidate for a team who have gotten heaps of WR quality out of Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins so can probably afford to get rid of a dude at the end of his peak given the franchise is now aligned with the career arc of Joe Burrow. Wait, what was I saying? AJ Brown, right. Second year in the league and he’s making this kinda route look easy...

Actually by his standards that was kinda easy. This guy’s amazing though. Brown versus Green for the AJs... who gets more yardage? Gotta tip AJ Brown there, the Titans are gonna be too good. They should still be undefeated really but for that Gostkowski miss (that lad’s having an up and down season for sure) but you can’t worry too much about losing games like that – the main point is that they almost came back to in at all with that incredible fourth quarter (and also Ben Roethlisberger running out of steam and letting them in with a few turnovers). The Bengals seem to find ways to lose despite usually staying competitive. They won’t have an answer for Derrick Henry (who is now more than a hundred yards clear of anyone else on the rush yards chart).

Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 13

Las Vegas Raiders (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (5-2)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Baker Mayfield started 0/5 with an interception against the Bengals coming off a week of heavy criticism. Baker Mayfield thrives with criticism though. Baker Mayfield had gotten too nice in 2020 as he cashed those home insurance cheques and lapped up the franchise quarterback leadership role. Baker Mayfield then proceeded to go 22/23 for 297 yards with five touchdowns including a beautiful game-winner at the very end and the lone incompletion there was a spike to stop the clock. Here was that game-winner, a stunner of a throw and a stunner of a catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones...

Jeez, that’s gorgeous.

Slight issue with the Browns... Odell Beckham Jr’s done his ACL so that’s him for the season. They’re not a team I think whose ceiling is really damaged by that because even OBJ wasn’t dragging them to a playoff win though they still have about the same chance of getting a wildcard entry. But it sucks when one of the truly thrilling players in the game has to miss extended time with injury, you never quite know if they’ll be the same when they get back and OBJ has missed extended time before. Not really fair, is it?

I didn’t see a lot of the Raiders last week, all I saw was Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski tearing them to shreds so not sure what to say about them. They were just starting to look really useful then suddenly they’re getting pantsed. Probably a game here where the Cleveland run game will be the decisive factor, if Kareem Hunt gets going then that’ll be that. (Sounds like Nick Chubb won’t be back for a couple more weeks, btw).

Wildcard’s Pick: Browns by 6

Indianapolis Colts (4-2) at Detroit Lions (3-3)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Mate. Some of the catches this guy makes, aye? Six catches for 114 yards last week against Atlanta and every one of those six catches – literally every one of them – was amazing. He’s quick with good hands like most receivers but what stands him apart is how physical he is, absorbing hits in tight coverage which make him one of the best WRs in the game when it comes to grabbing those 50/50 balls. Pair that with a guy like Stafford and it’ll be carnage. Golladay is 26 years old in his fourth season coming off back to back 100 yard receiving games for the second time in his career. After missing the first couple of weeks of the season he’s been sharper than ever, with a big leap in his percentage of targets caught compared to the rest of his career, and what do ya know he’s due a contract extension. An extremely timely leap for the fella. Now pay the man his money!

Not sure I can sanction another Detroit Lions pick, not against a Colts team coming off a refreshing bye week. With Darius Leonard back in training after missing the last two games. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a big game from Indy’s rookie running back Jonathan Taylor either.

If things do go against the Lions though, there’s always this memory...

Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 7

Minnesota Vikings (1-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-1)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Davante Adams, folks. This week he comes up against a team who is allowing opposition quarterbacks to complete at 68% for an average of 12.4 yards per completion. Lots of completions, lots of yards. Opposition QBs have a passer rating of 110.4 against them – the only teams worse are the Texans, Falcons & Saints but at least their offences are doing things. The last time we saw the Vikings this was what they were up to...

(Initially I wrote “at least their offences are getting along” then remembered the Saints and ‘Can’t Stand Mike’ so tweaked that a little... Michael Thomas might be getting a tad cocky these days but he did break the all time receptions record last year so the dude backs it up. So does Adam Thielen, I know... but Thielen ain’t the problem).

Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 14

New York Jets (0-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-1)

Monday 7.00am NZT

I don’t entirely know what this means... but it’s evocative. And offensively speaking these two teams could hardly be any further apart.

If the Jets couldn’t win a game even when they kept the other team to zero touchdowns then they’re probably never going to win a game. They’re certainly not gonna win this one... they’ll be lucky to stay within 20 points.

Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 21

Los Angeles Rams (5-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-3)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Mr Tua Tagovailoa, ladies and gentlemen. About to make his first NFL start... one which I suspect the Dolphins always sorta planned for, coming out of their bye week. Otherwise it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to be honest given that Ryan Fitzpatrick was actually playing great and winning them games. Fitzy seems to be taking it well though...

Harsh on Fitzmagic (although 4 TDs and 5 INTs only really counts as playing well for a team that had minimal expectations)... but I am pretty pumped to see Tagovailoa get a crack. Especially because he’s a lefty. For whatever reason there just aren’t any lefties around the show any more – the last left-hander to throw a pass in an NFL game pre-Tua was Kellen Moore who is now the Offensive Coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys. He was only ever a backup. Something like 10% of the population is left handed but apparently only like 1% of NFL quarterbacks are?

There are a few theories why the lefties don’t get much of a go, pretty solid theories too. For one they’re different. They throw the ball spiralling the other way to right handers which receivers find tricky because it’s outside their usual instinctive routine. More drops and your stats look bad and you don’t get drafted. Also the offensive line has to work backwards with a lefty, the opposite tackle suddenly becomes the blind-side dude and you’re angled at a different direction against the pass rush. Again that reflects bad on the southpaw slinger if he’s getting sacked more often. Then you couple that with the fact that other sports, baseball in particular, really reward left-handers as their point of difference is a huge advantage and not a hurdle and if you can throw a hard football with your left hand then you can probably throw a baseball too... so they’re all ending up in baseball.

Except for Tua Tagovailoa. Doing it for the Polynesian quarterbacks and the left-handers both. Shout out Ned Flanders and the Leftorium.

And for his first start in the NFL... he gets to come up against Aaron Donald who already has a taste for blood after what he and the rest of that crew did to Nick Foles and the Bears, shattering my pick of Chicago to win that game. It’s okay folks, the picks are in a good place. Still hauled in 10-4 last week so we’re good... coulda gone wild if I didn’t have all three of those Steelers/Lions/Browns wins that were dragged out of a hat in the final seconds all within minutes of each other.

Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 12

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-0) at Baltimore Ravens (5-1)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Appropriate for the head coach of the last remaining undefeated team. Probably saw visions of his defensive system in the flames as they rose and flickered and licked at the night’s sky. A glimpse of what plays to call on third down gifted to him by the psychoactive mushrooms he was dropping.

The drugs will have played a nice part there. Also playing a nice part is probably the deepest and most intimidating wide receiver group in the NFL...

• JuJu Smith-Schuster: 32 catches for 279 yards with 3 TDs

• Chase Claypool: 18 catches for 333 yards with 4 TDs (plus 2 rush TDs)

• Diontae Johnson: 24 catches for 279 yards with 3 TDs

• James Washington: 17 catches for 185 yards with 2 TDs

Not to mention tight end Eric Ebron and running back James Conner who are both heavy factors in the passing game as well. But those four WRs are as good as any in the league and they’re all aged 24 years or younger. Madness.

The Ravens haven’t quite looked like themselves this season but they’ve beaten everybody other than the Chiefs so far which makes this match-up particularly enticing. A couple division rivals with Super Bowl ambitions. Probably the game of the week, as a win for either gives them control of a very competitive AFC North. The Steelers got extremely lucky in closing that win out against the Titans last week, they were only a missed field goal at the death away from losing despite a huge start and Big Ben’s three interceptions were the culprits there... but they also have arguably the best pass rush out there against a team with some offensive line issues and a quarterback who holds onto the ball. That could mean danger if Lamar Jackson eludes the rush and has open space in which to run... but it could also be the winning of the game if he doesn’t.

Wildcard’s Pick: Umm... Steelers by 4

Los Angeles Chargers (2-4) at Denver Broncos (2-4)

Monday 10.05am NZT

See, it’s stats like that which are fast filling up the Justin Herbert bandwagon. Better check those tyres in fact because that wagon is gonna be over-filled in no time. It’s not only third downs either, he’s also yet to throw a pick in the red zone while only Russell Wilson has more TDs of 20+ yards this season. Herbert’s ability to throw downfield with pure accuracy is honestly baffling for a rookie quarterback... who wasn’t even the first player selected in his position. Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa both went ahead of him... not that there’s anything wrong with those two. Just a really stacked QB class apparently (at the top end, at least) – for the first time all three of them will start this weekend too. To recap all that, Herbert is good on third down, good in the red zone, and good throwing deep. Add to that his obvious toughness/durability and a bit of athleticism and he’s gonna be throwing those bombs for many years to come.

Also shout out to the Chargers as a whole because after all those fourth quarter choke jobs they keep piling up – and I went through some numbers on their record in close games in last week’s picks – this time they came through in a risky one. They were 16-0 up against the Jags, then 29-22 down late in the third. But they got it done for a 10 point win, Justin Herbert’s first ever NFL win.

Not sure if I should predict his second here or not. The Broncos are deceptive. That defence is top ten in yards allowed per play and they hardly miss a tackle. Just lacking a bit of extra oomph without Von Miller, otherwise you could probably add a fair bit more pressure on quarterbacks leading to more sacks and more turnovers. The turnovers are the main one, only six in six games so far. They got torched by the Chiefs last week but showed they’re better than that against the Pats the week before. Drew Lock’s quite decent too – granted the stats don’t really show it with four picks and no scores over the over the last two games. Yeah nah reckon I’ll take the Chargers after all.

Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 3

New Orleans Saints (4-2) at Chicago Bears (5-2)

Monday 10.25am NZT

See, the trick about this prediction thing is not to overreact. The Rams beat up on the Bears, their pass rush was overwhelming, the Bears’ offence looked as bad as it has all season and that’s really saying something, but that doesn’t delegitimise the five wins on the Bears’ card. They’re not as good as some people thought, not as bad as others now think. The middle ground is the sweet spot just like with the Saints and their dinky, dunky offence which yes does include a Hall of Fame quarterback who refuses to throw deep but which also serves up some smooth tides when things are clicking.

So this Michael Thomas stuff is kinda funky. Thommo has been dealing with an ankle knock for about six weeks but was suspended internally after apparently punching CJ Gardner-Johnson in practice before week five. He’d rushed back to try and play half-hurt before the bye week, maybe he took a knock he objected to or something. He then didn’t play last week either after that bye. He’s only limited now so dunno if that’ll happen, probs not. There’s been whispers that nobody really likes him in the group and Sean Payton’s had to come out and slam the idea that he MT could be traded. I mean, unless he goes full Antonio Brown crazy pretty sure they need his ability out there on the field and will make it work somehow.

Look, the Saints aren’t gonna do to what the Rams did defensively... though Brees is coming off a really nice three game stretch, completing at 75% with a passer rating of 105.4 (5 TD, 2 INT). Most importantly those have all been wins. Alvin Kamara’s been really good lately too. It’s a curious one because there’s a lot of bounce-back potential in the Bears... who have won a lot of close games. Alternatively you could say they’ve won a lot of close games and therefore their luck was due to change. Dunno. Hmm...

Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 2 but I’m not convinced

San Francisco 49ers (4-3) at Seattle Seahawks (5-1)

Monday 10.25am NZT

Still not really sure how the Seahawks lost that game. Doubt they do it again.

Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 6

Dallas Cowboys (2-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-4-1)

Monday 2.20pm NZT

Oh for God’s sake. Primetime coverage? The NFL was able to move the Raiders’ game out of primetime last week when they had their covid scare and put that outstanding Seahawks vs Cardinals game there instead and the world was a better place... that should be an automatic rule for NFC East games until at least one of those four teams breaks even because nobody needs to see this.

Umm so... Andy Dalton has been straight up terrible. Not exactly the best situation for him with the offensive line utterly decimated by injuries and potentially the worst defence in the competition but one touchdown and three interceptions on less than sixty percent completion with six sacks in less than two games, the team scoring 13 combined points in those games, is downright atrocious. Which is something you could also say about the Jon Bostic hit that’s put him in the concussion protocol with some fella called Ben DiNucci currently preparing to start. Who, you may ask? I don’t know either. First I heard of him was when he came in to play against Washington and pretty sure he took three sacks on six drop backs so if that’s what the Eagles have in store for them this week then they might suddenly look like the team that won the Super Bowl a few years back again. I have seen talk outta the Cowboys that DiNucci is a very useful runner of the football... but the Cowboys have lost two quarterbacks to injuries on scramble runs so I’m a bit speechless on all that.

I’ll be honest, I’d be lying if I said this thought hadn’t crossed my mind...

Never gonna happen with Jerry Jones around though. Same as one other issue with Jerry, that being his loyalty to coaches and right now I can understand the reasons for Mike McCarthy getting a little more time but Mike Nolan has been a disaster as defensive coordinator. I said it last week and I’ll say it again, if this team doesn’t win before its week nine bye (and they face Pittsburgh next week) then one or both of them need to be gone.

I thought this was a bit odd too...

Is he telling them to go start fights? Maybe get someone ejected so they can escort Bostic to the locker rooms? That’s a bit silly. There’s no doubt at all that this Cowboys’ team is not fully locked in but I reckon the complaints about not stepping up for their quarterback there are over the top, projecting one problem onto another.

I keep watching Eagles games and all I’ve seemed to learn about them is that Travis Fulgham is good.

Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 20 if DiNucci starts, Eagles by 10 if not

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1) at New York Giants (1-6)

Monday 10.25am NZT

Hehehehe.

Tom Brady’s last five games:

66.0% COMP | 1454 YDS | 15 TD | 1 INT | 8.68 AY/A | 111.1 RATE | 1 RUSH TD

He had a couple sloppy ones early and even in this lot there was that loss against the Bears where he wasn’t at his best but over the last month or so, on the whole, Tom Brady has been... well, terrific. And this Gronkowski fella they picked up from nowhere ain’t bad either, what is it with Tom Brady and bringing the best out in these unknown receivers?

Wildcard’s Pick: Buccs by 14

BYE: Arizona Cardinals (5-2), Houston Texans (1-6), Washington Football Team (2-5) & Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6)

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