The Wildcard’s NFL Picks - Week 11
Last Week: 8-6
Season: 97-49-1
Arizona Cardinals (6-3) at Seattle Seahawks (6-3)
Friday 2.20pm NZT
What’s going on here... an enjoyable TNF game? No, this won’t do. Can’t have that. Thursday night games are supposed to be a way to cruise on into the weekend, something to chuck on in the background on a Friday arvo, probably streaming on my phone, while I rip off the last of my work for the week. But these buggers are gonna make me wanna have to stop all I’m doing and pay attention. After a pretty fascinating Titavs-Colts one last week, this is the second good TNF game in a row... 2020 really has thrown us.
Speaking of good throws...
I mean... Jeezus Christ, right? The evasiveness to even get the throw off at all and then the sheer perfection of the placement despite all the defenders in the area to put it where DeAndre Hopkins has a chance to go and do what he does... and then Hoppa with the absolute genius to first of all get his hands on it at all but then to secure the catch as he comes down too, you see these ones dropped all the time even with just one defender on ya. That is quite honestly, in terms of the difficulty and execution from snap to whistle, one of the greatest plays I’ve even seen. Between that and rushing my prediction and thinking for some reason that the Chargers could beat the Dolphins it ruined me from having a really good week on the picks but that’s a small price to pay to witness such excellence.
And it also just goes to show once again that not all trades are made equally and the Houston Texans probably wish they weren’t so dumb with that one. DeAndre Hopkins is second in total receiving yardage this season, 45 yards behind Stefon Diggs in one fewer game with six fewer catches. 861 yards on 67 catches with the best catch percentage on targets of anyone in the top six. Only the four touchdowns to go with all that but remember he did also catch a couple victories here...
I reckon he’s got a point here too...
Yeah so I didn’t get the picks done and published last week. I was well on track and then I woke up in the middle of the night and yacked my guts up about five separate times over the next six hours and pretty much didn’t sleep at all for 48 hours whilst simultaneously feeling like my stomach had been tied in a sailor’s knot and safe to say I wasn’t physically up to it. Apologies for that, I already sorta said as much in the most recent newsletter too (where I included my mid-season awards which would’ve been in the picks). You can imagine the NFL picks don’t get the same audience as some of the cricket or football stuff we do so this is pretty much a labour of love for me. I appreciate your eyes and your brain in this present moment. Click on one of them shiny banner ads while you’re here if you appreciate the words each week so we know the readership’s out there, muy bueno.
The Seahawks are undefeated at home. Four wins from four, tough to pick against them with the Twelfth Man in attendance. But there are two things worrying me about them Seahawks. Number one is what Russell Wilson seems to be doing to his MVP case. Pat Mahomes is hot on his heels and he’s not the only one. Can’t be having this now...
Russell Wilson first five games:
72.8% COMP | 300.4 YD/G | 19 TD | 3 INT | 10.34 AY/A | 129.8 RATE
Russell Wilson last four games:
66.7% COMP | 321.8 YD/G | 9 TD | 7 INT | 6.98 AY/A | 90.6 RATE
And then the other thing is the all time terrible defence that they’ve got there. They’re on pace to allow 7173 total yards this season... the record is the 2012 Saints who allowed 7042 yards. In order to break a record like that you have to be consistently bad every single week so even just two good games changes that course but those Saints went 7-9 while this Seahawks team has Super Bowl ambitions. Simply not being the worst defence of all time is not cutting it.
One more thing...
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 6
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1) at Cleveland Browns (6-3)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Lil Wayne on the reference meter there. Fair play. And credit to Lil Baker because after beating the Texans 10-7 in the pouring rain and howling wind last week he’s now the winningest starting quarterback in the Browns’ current home stadium... surpassing Ben Roethlisberger. When one of your biggest rivals owns the key to the building that’s a bit embarrassing, there’ll be a lot of Browns old boys relieved to know that stat’s been buried. He should extend it here too because he’s up against an NFC East team. The Eagles, man. They were woeful last week.
And yet the Eagles lead the division. 3-5-1 with a -29 points differential and they’re in first place. The Giants are up next at 3-7 while the Cowboys and WFT at 2-7 are both only a game and a half out themselves... it’s hilarious. The entire division combined has two total wins from outside the NFC East. The Cowboys beat the Falcons in that onside kick comeback game and these Eagles beat a banged up Niners team in week four. They also have a draw with the Bengals, to be fair.
Philly has two more divisional games and before that they have the Browns (A), Seahawks, Packers (A), Saints & Cardinals (A)... sounds like five losses outta five to me. They could win the division with a 5-10-1 record. Or maybe the Giants, who are on their bye with a two-game winning streak, come and take it with wins over the Bengals and Cowboys, hope the Eagles lose to Washington or Dallas, and make it with a 5-11 record. I mean, nobody expects any of these teams to get to seven wins, surely?
Nick Chubb came back from five weeks out injured, had to run in the rain when it was obvious that airing the ball out wasn’t gonna be much of a consistent option, and still ripped off 126 yards with a touchdowns at 6.6 yards per carry. Damn, they’d missed him.
Wildcard’s Pick: Browns by 14
Atlanta Falcons (3-6) at New Orleans Saints (7-2)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Somehow the Saints have won six games in a row. It felt like they were in a bit of bother there, Drew Brees refused to throw deep and the defence couldn’t stem the tide. But some timely plays, some favourable matchups, some Alvin Kamara godliness... and six wins in a row have them in a golden place, first in the division having one all three NFC East matches so far and here’s a chance to make it four. They will have to do it without Drew Brees who has a busted rib and a punctured lung... but to finish a sentence that I’d hardly ever have imagine saying a couple years ago: I don’t think it matters. Drew Brees isn’t a burden like some would say, but he’s not the key to their success either. It’s Jameis Winston’s time to shine, amigos.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 7
Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1) at Washington Football Team (2-7)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Not sure there’s much chance of the Bengals going on a run the rest of the way but that’s fine, they don’t need to. With young dudes like Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon, Jessie Bates III, Germaine Pratt & Carl Lawson (all 25 or younger) making plays they do have a nice little core coming through on both sides of the ball which they should be able to build around in the next few drafts and free agency, to go with young buck Joe Burrow who is serving up some sneaky excellent numbers right now...
Joe Burrow in 2020: 65.4% COMP | 2485 YDS | 12 TD | 5 INT | 89.8 RATE
It’s not winning them games and he’s taking too many sacks with not enough touchdown passes (both issues you can put down to his inexperience and the lack of consistent talent around him) but as far as rookie quarterbacks go that’s decent. Everyone’s talking about Justin Herbert at the moment but Joe Burrow is still very much in the Rookie of the Year hunt.
Also...
The Alex Smith stuff is odd to me. Like all the people saying he’s an automatic for Comeback Player of the Year as if the award is only about the severity of the injury you’re coming back from. Supposing you survive what Smithy went through, anyone can make that same comeback if performance isn’t taken into account. Dude throws ten picks in one half but hey at least he made the comeback, bro. And Smith plain and simple had not looked very good in his first few glimpses at NFL footy again... understandable but also gotta be honest and say that.
Then he went pickin’ and a-poppin’ last week and it was a different story. It looked like he finally had his feet under him again as he threw a career high 390 passing yards on 38/55 completions. The running backs stole his touchdowns (a consequence of the dunk and dunk as you put the team into runnable situations in the red zone) and they still lost yet another close one but that was probably his best performance since the Kansas City days and after what I was saying about the NFC East earlier I wouldn’t be stunned if the Washington FT make a run at that title. The second half against Detroit was when Smithy got his groove back and if WFT are suddenly the only team in the NFC East with competent quarterback play then that changes the whole complexion. Especially if they win here.
Wildcard’s Pick: Washington by 3
Detroit Lions (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (3-7)
Monday 7.00am NZT
The Detroit Lions are a bad team. They’re 29th/32 in points allowed and only a middling offence. By rights they should be a 2-3 win team at this stage but they’re one good game away from drawing even thanks largely to the fact that they’re 3-1 in one-score games. Matt Stafford will do that for ya, when it looked like they were choking the game away against Washington last week they rallied back at the end after the game had been tied, Stafford getting the ball back with 16 seconds on the clock on his own 25 yard line after the kickoff.
Pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 10 yards. Timeout with 12 seconds remaining
Pass incomplete deep to Quintez Cephus. Roughing the passer penalty for 15 yards
Pass complete to Marvin Jones for 9 yards. Timeout with 3 seconds remaining
Matt Prater makes 59 yard field goal for the win as time expires
Simple as that, friends. Matt Stafford might not be Patrick Mahomes or Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers but throughout his career he’s made a habit of these game-winning drives. Remember the one against Atlanta a couple weeks back too. That degree of clutch playmaking really does allow for a margin of error.
But annoying here because both Stafford and Teddy Bridgewater are playing through injury. Christian McCaffrey is out injured for a wee while (again). This could be a fantastic game because of the match-up but it could equally be a trainwreck and I’m not really sure which I expect.
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 3
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)
Monday 7.00am NZT
So... when do the Steelers pick up their first loss? They played their worst game of the season against the Cowboys two weeks back and still managed to win. They survived a missed field goal at the death against the Titans. Mike Tomlin’s dudes have definitely had some luck along the way but halfway through their season they’re still undefeated and this is what they have left on the schedule...
Jaguars (A), Ravens (H), Washington (H), Bills (A), Bengals (A), Colts (H), Browns (A)
There are some tricky ones in there. Some sitters too but also some proper tricky ones. The first ever 9-0 in Steelers history should really become the first ever 10-0 in Steelers history in a few days and from that point it’ll be all about wrapping up that top seed and home advantage through the playoffs, which’d give them the best chance to topple the Chiefs. If I’m betting on that first L... I’d say the Bills in week 14... meaning they’d be 12-0 before they finally drop one.
Remember that wins on the board are huge too. They’re always huge obviously but even more so this year because there’s still an outside chance that the season might need to be shortened or that some games won’t be able to be played if the coronavirus doesn’t let up. Which let’s be honest it’s not going to. Most teams right now, at this exact moment, have active cases within their houses and it’s not as if the US government is gonna do a damn thing to help over the rest of this regular season (another let’s be honest moment: there’s a 100% chance we get NFL playoffs in some format regardless of what happens to the regular season) because they’re currently preoccupied with putting the final nails in the coffin that holds the death of American democracy. There’s literally a coup going on right now, lol. What a disaster.
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 17
Tennessee Titans (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
Monday 7.00am NZT
The Ravens are a little bit broken. Lamar Jackson will get the focus because he’s the reigning MVP but I mean he’s not a million miles off where he was a year ago. Clearly he’s dropped off, his TD% has gone from 9.0% down to 5.7% in the most obvious expression of that, but you know his completion and yardage are only very slightly down. It’s the rise in sacks (already equal to his 2019 tally) and the 22 fewer yards he’s getting on the ground that are doing the real damage because it’s reflective of a much wider issue which is Baltimore’s tumbling rush game (well, the sacks aren’t the rush game but it’s the same roughed-up offensive line).
2019 Ravens: 206 RUSH YDS/G | 37.3 ATT/G | 5.5 Y/ATT | 1.3 TD/G
2020 Ravens: 164 RUSH YDS/G | 32.7 ATT/G | 5.0 Y/ATT | 1.1 TD/G
It’s not a drastic drop-off but it’s enough to take the heat out of their offence, especially considering how many touchdowns Lamar would throw on the back of a rolling downfield possession which just aren’t happening right now. And it’s getting worse, the numbers are boosted by a pretty favourable early run of games (after losing to the Chiefs they had Washington, Cincinnati & Philly all in a row). The reason for the inefficiencies? Injuries, of course. Ronnie Stanley is out for the season after the left tackle was hurt against Pittsburgh two three weeks back. Tight end Nick Boyle is out for the season too after last week’s knee injury. And don’t forget Marshall Yanda retired in the offseason. Three key factors in their rush game not available and they’re trending in the wrong direction. Blocking is basically main problem here. Having said that, they’re 6-3 so don’t cry too hard.
The last time these two teams played...
The Ravens won 28-12 that day, a bit of an upset but also a comprehensive win (in which Lamar Jackson threw 2 picks and Ryan Tannehill only attempted 14 passes) thanks to the blockbusting talents of Derrick Henry who ran 30 times for 195 yards. And the Ravens are probably gonna be without Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams for this game having just allowed Pats RB Damien Harris to rush for 121 yards on 22 carries and he’s nowhere near Derrick Henry capabilities. The Titans have lost three of their last four and are clearly dipping in the midseason. This feels like a handy opportunity to get a bit of confidence back against a good team.
Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 6
New England Patriots (4-5) at Houston Texans (2-7)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Right... glad they cleared that up.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 5
Miami Dolphins (6-3) at Denver Broncos (3-6)
Monday 10.05am NZT
Hang it up in the Leftorium, baby. Those left-handed footballs really do fly. With a win in Colorado Tagovailoa will become the first rookie QB since Ben Roethlisberger to win each of his first four starts. He has 5 TDs and 0 INTs through his first three.
Dude’s getting so much help though. The Dolphins have levelled up since Tua came in, they’re extremely well coached and as well as Tagovailoa is doing, he’s getting to do most of it from a winning position thanks to his defence and special teams who are doing all the groundwork.
Against the Rams they had a touchdown from a fumble return (78 yards) and a punt return (88 yards) in an 11-point win
Against the Cardinals they had a touchdown from a fumble return (36 yards) and two 50+ yard field goals in a 3-point win
Against the Chargers they didn’t have any special teams or defensive touchdowns but they blocked a punt on the opening possession leading to a touchdown plus they picked Justin Herbert off once and got a fourth down stop in the fourth quarter to go with a couple field goals of 49+ yards in an 8-point win
No special teams unit is doing more to affect the outcome of games in a positive way than the Fins’.
Wildcard’s Pick: Dolphins by 2
New York Jets (0-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-7)
Monday 10.05am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 6
Green Bay Packers (7-2) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3)
Monday 10.25am NZT
I’m sure you’ve already seen this a hundred times by now but it’s one of my favourite moments of the 2020 season and I didn’t get to share it last week so have another geeze at the wonders of the Philip Rivers Flail...
Poor Philip. He’s at that age now where if he does something uncoordinated, people just yell at him to retire. Which I mean... his inability to walk sideways without falling over and his wobbly-arm tackle looking like a Magikarp using Splash have no bearing on his ability as a quarterback.
Rivers was pretty great last week. 29/39 for 308 yards with a touchdown and no picks in a win over the Titans. Just what the doctor ordered after a terrible one against the Ravens. It’s tricky because the Colts signed him to take them over the top as contenders but instead they have this really impressive battling unit who miss by far the fewest tackles in the league and Rivers is often the one holding them back. They’re the third worst on third down, they’re bottom ten in converting red zone opportunities. Through nine games Rivers only has 11 passing TDs to go with 7 interceptions. His overall numbers are fine but it’s just when things get tight that he lacks the precision he once had. Yet then he has a real nice game like he did last week and it’s clear that’s the guy the Colts were banking on. They might be a few years too late on that one but you never know if they can scrape into the playoffs then it could just be his lucky day.
I still cringe at every one of these every time. They’re funny to watch but imagine being his teammate, haha. You’d struggle to hold your tongue sometimes for sure.
Davante Adams has missed a couple games so he’s not all the way up there in the total receiving yards stats but check this out instead...
Receiving Yards Per Game in 2020:
Davante Adams – 105.9
DeAndre Hopkins – 95.7
Julio Jones – 91.1
DK Metcalf – 90.7
Stefon Diggs – 90.6
Terry McLaurin – 87.4
He’s miles ahead, man. Not to mention that he’s equal with Adam Thielen and Tyreek Hill in total touchdown catches (9) in two fewer games. What a season that dude is having.
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 5
Dallas Cowboys (2-7) at Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
Monday 10.25am NZT
Didn’t quite do Chicago like he did Detroit the week before (206 rush yards with 2 TD on 22 rushes) but Dalvin Cook has nonetheless gone absolutely bonkers lately. He has four games of 130+ rush yards. The Bears win was the first game he didn’t score a touchdown in this season (he did miss one through injury). It was also the first time Minny have won when he’s had less than 130 yards. That’s the Bears for you, mate. But Dalvin Cook’s intensity is salvaging this Vikings season.
RUSH LEADERS
Dalvin Cook – 954 YDS | 12 TD | 5.5 Y/A
Derrick Henry – 946 YDS | 8 TD | 4.7 Y/A
Ronald Jones – 730 YDS | 5 TD | 5.1 Y/A
Josh Jacobs – 700 YDS | 8 TD | 3.8 Y/A
James Robinson – 689 YDS | 5 TD | 4.4 Y/A
Tells a bit of a yarn that Ronald Jones just had a 98 yard score and is still 200+ yards off these two leaders, while Jacobs can be fourth averaging less than four per carry (which is sorta the understood buffer line). Shout out to undrafted Jaguars rookie James Robinson too. By the way number eight on the list? Kyler Murray with 604 yards. Goes to show this year has not been one for the running backs. Ezekiel Elliott is in eleventh with 572 yards at 3.8 per carry if you were wondering. I wasn’t but you might have been. I think I’ve probably run out of things to think about the Cowboys, especially after a lovely bye week in which I didn’t miss them at all.
Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 10
Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-3)
Monday 2.20pm NZT
At this point, would it shock anybody if Patrick Mahomes wins MVP and the Kansas City Chiefs become the first team since the Patriots in 2005? Starting to feel like we should have realised that was the obvious outcome since week one. Ah but who are the only team to beat the Chiefs this season? That’d be the Las Vegas Raiders my friend. Here comes the Vegas rematch. They always say you shouldn’t chase your losses in Vegas but then they also say don’t bet against the Chiefs and Mahomes so this one has the potential to be an undercover belter.
The secret that day was a second half in which the Raiders were able to limit the Cheifs to three straight punts and then an interception on possessions that all lasted less than 2:30 and fewer than 20 net yards. Travis Kelce got into the end zone after that but then LVR closed out the rest of the game, not giving Mahomes the ball back with an 8-point lead and four minutes remaining. Whether they can do that again, getting pressure on Mahomes in that pocket especially on third down, well mate that’s the whole point.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 6
Los Angeles Rams (6-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3)
Tuesday 2.15pm NZT
Yup, that’ll do it.
Wildcard’s Pick: Buccs by 2
BYE: Buffalo Bills (7-3), New York Giants (3-7), Chicago Bears (5-5) & San Francisco 49ers (4-6)
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