Last Week: 8-6

Season: 105-55-1

Houston Texans (3-7) at Detroit Lions (4-6)

Friday 6.30am NZT

It’s Thanksgiving in the United (so to speak) States of America and the timeline is stacked with people ranking Thanksgiving food. I’m sure there are some other aspects to that particular holiday, gaudy USA patriotism being one of them, but mostly it seems to be about fighting with relatives and eating food? I’ve never experienced a Thanksgiving, man. Don’t look at me.

Also isn’t it a weird time to have a holiday? Like it’s a month out from Christmas. Do families gather together for a big old meal on Thanksgiving then go back to wherever they happen to live and then reconvene a month later to discuss how much worse their NFL team’s season has gone in that time? Again, beats me.

Back to the point at hand... Thanksgiving food sounds awful. I’m partial to a bit of turkey (on a special occasion, I try not to eat too much meat in general) but it’s not a centrepiece dish in my eyes. I looked this up and found a Thanksgiving food rankings and seriously this was the list they served up: Stuffing, Mashed Potatoes & Gravy, Broccoli Casserole, Cornbread, Canned Cranberries, Ham, Mac & Cheese, Corn, Green Bean Casserole, Dinner Rolls, Apple Pie, Pecan Pie... and a few more. Moral of the story being that is some bland-ass food right there. An excellent and abundant stuffing miiiiight save the day but that reads like leftovers ahead of time. What is wrong with Americans? No wonder they elected the orange guy.

Umm, have a geeze at Deshaun Watson’s passer ratings this season...

This is a team that has only won three times all season and two were against the Jaguars. Yet Watto has consistently put up fantastic numbers, especially after those first two weeks. Bear in mind that the only game where he dipped under 100 was the game against the Browns which was played in horrendous wind and rain.

Two things about Watson: The fact that the Texans are still losing while he plays like this shows how atrocious they really must be. Also, I’m not entirely sure people give Watson enough credit as an undeniable top five quarterback. Patrick Mahomes, sure. No doubter number one. Russell Wilson is up there too, Aaron Rodgers is still hanging in. But Watson is as good as literally anybody else and there’s even a case for him head to head with Wilson and Rodgers right now.

Meanwhile the Detroit Lions just got shut out in a 20-0 loss to the Panthers. I’d picked them to win and they did not score a single point. There’s no reason why they should be quite as bad as they have been... well Matt Patricia, I s’pose. But yeah hugely disappointing. The Lions had scored 20+ points in every game up until that point. I have a feeling I may regret this pick...

Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 5

Washington Football Team (3-7) at Dallas Cowboys (3-7)

Friday 10.30am NZT

Keep stirring that pot, folks, because guess what Ezekiel Elliott did last week...

First 100 yard rushing game of the season, baby. It’d been a while. And they won too so Dallas is 1-0 when Zeke rushes for 100+. The big difference there... Zack Martin moving to right tackle. Andy Dalton was also back but he’s Andy Dalton so that ain’t moving the needle much. But with Martin on the edge the Cowboys line, which has been ravaged by injury, looked so much more like what they’re supposed to look like. See what #70 Martin (and TE Dalton Schulz, who’d later score the winning TD) does here at RT for Tony Pollard’s score. This was emphatic...

Then chuck in that the Dallas defence actually made some plays and that there was definitely more of an emphasis on getting more chunk yardage on offence. Also they were playing a Vikings team that let Dallas get an early lead and then a late game-winning drive so bear that in mind... but the Vikings are no worse than the NFC East’s offerings. So on the day of thanksgiving, no less, I shall be forced once again to do something I did not think possible even just a week ago: cheer for a Cowboys win in order to re-establish their playoff hopes. Philadelphia currently leads the division with a 3-1-6 record. Disgusting as it might be... Dallas are only half a game out and they still have to play each of the other NFC East jokers again. True holiday spirit... it’s the division that keeps giving.

Also, this is one of my favourite plays of the entire season. What. A. Catch.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 6

Baltimore Ravens (6-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0)

Monday TBD NZT

This game was supposed to be on Thanksgiving and it would’ve by far been the standout game. But a flurry of positive covid cases from the Ravens camp caused it to be pushed back to Monday morning NZT, probably among the early slate of games. 31 hours before kickoff was when that decision was made and apparently the Ravens have disciplined a staff member for some kind of detrimental conduct surrounding the corona cases... sounds like a cover up or a dismissal of proper precautions but they’re a bit shady about it.

We don’t need to dwell on this but I remember having a maths teacher back in the day who used to always encourage people to ask questions if they didn’t understand because, he said, if one person is confused then chances are at least four or five others are thinking the exact same thing. And in the context of the NFL if one team is flaunting rules then at least half a dozen more are too. The Ravens were stupid enough to get caught, is all.

Pretty awkward for the Steelers because they got screwed by the Tennessee Titans not taking covid seriously enough and having to postpone that game earlier in the season. Cost them a bye week, as JuJu says...

Half tempted to say that the Steelers should get the win by default... but if the Ravens are missing players (and anyone who tests positive has to do a mandatory 10 day quarantine) then that win should take care of itself. And it gets worse for the Ravens because they’re supposed to play on Thursday against the Cowboys the week after too and might still be missing some of those positive tests and even if they aren’t then that’s still a three day rest compared to seven for Dallas. If they lose both then that’d mean sinking to 6-6 after four straight defeats. Yikes.

Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 9

Las Vegas Raiders (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (3-7)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Memes aside... the Raiders might’ve lost that game to Kansas City but I dunno about you the fact that they ran them as desperately close as they did, having already beaten those dudes once this season, it only made the Raiders go up in my stocks, mate. This is the number one third-down offence in the league (51.6% conversion) and they’re 8/10 on fourth down too. There’s only ever one reason why teams are good on third down and that’s that they’re giving themselves short yardage to work with. Derek Carr is completing at nearly 70%. Josh Jacobs is getting... actually he’s only averaging 3.8 yards per rush but over the last four weeks (3-1 with wins over CLE, LAC & DEN) that’s up to 361 yards at 4.35 per rush. Even Nelson Agholor is catching passes, man.

And I have to admit it, Jon Gruden’s doing a great job there. The quarterback whisperer’s still got it and Derek Carr is looking as good as he ever has in his career. He’s moving on his feet so well, he’s making better decisions, he’s always had an accurate arm but combine those things together and his playmaking is so much more consistent. Carr’s only got two games all season with 300+ passing yards so you can’t compare these numbers to Patrick Mahomes or anything but he’s dishing up some prime Alex Smith numbers, to throw it back to the dude Mahomes inherited his job from. Game management styles... but in a great system with the right teammates that’s going to bag a heap of wins. You know what, maybe the best comparison is to Derek Carr four years ago when he got some minor MVP buzz...

Derek Carr in 2016: 63.8% COMP | 262.5 YDS/G | 28 TD | 6 INT | 7.5 AY/A | 96.7 RATE

Derek Carr in 2020: 69.7% COMP | 243.1 YDS/G | 19 TD | 3 INT | 8.5 AY/A | 108.7 RATE

Daylight.

Wildcard’s Pick: Raiders by 6

New York Giants (3-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-7-1)

Monday 7.00am NZT

It looked terrible live and afterwards it’s been confirmed even worse than that. A torn ACL, a torn MCL, and other structure damage to his left knee. Absolutely awful. Don’t even know what the Bengals are supposed to do from here out either, this more or less puts their entire franchise in pause mode. Also I’m sure it’s just a coincidence but both these teams will be missing their best played with a season-ending ACL injury. Saquon Barkley did his too, of course. As did Odell Beckham Jr, Nick Bosa, Devin Bush, Tarik Cohen... bound to be plenty more ACL tears in 2020 where those came from.

Wildcard’s Pick: Giants by 7

Los Angeles Chargers (3-7) at Buffalo Bills (7-3)

Monday 7.00am NZT

The other thing about Joe Burrow’s injury is it robs us of what was gonna be a great Offensive Rookie of the Year duel down the stretch between Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. Herbie’s probably overtaken him anyway by this point but there are still six more games to go and it was bloody close. Now it’s a walkover for Herbert if he stays healthy himself... and he’ll deserve it to be fair. He’s putting up some crazy mad numbers.

Joe Burrow: 65.3% COMP | 2688 YDS | 13 TD | 5 INT | 6.7 AY/A | 89.8 RATE

Justin Herbert: 68.0% COMP | 2699 YDS | 22 TD | 6 INT | 8.2 AY/A | 104.7 RATE

Which gets ya thinking about a few records. Joe Burrow was on pace to break the rookie completions record with 264 of them and six games remaining. Lil Herbie’s thrown 238 compete passes, by the way. Burrow won’t get the chance to crack that one but Herbert is well in the mix...

• All-Time Rookie Season Passer Rating: 104.9 by Dak Prescott (2016)

• All-Time Rookie Season Completions: 379 by Carson Wentz (2016)

• All-Time Rookie Season Completion: 67.76% by Dak Prescott, (2016)

• All-Time Rookie Season Passing Yards: 4374 by Andrew Luck (2012)

• All-Time Rookie Season Passing Touchdowns: 27 by Baker Mayfield (2018)

Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 10

Tennessee Titans (7-3) at Indianapolis Colts (7-3)

Monday 7.00am NZT

I mean... what can you say? The unbelievable sheer strength of the man. Saved me on the prediction too, which is more than I can say about the Colts with their massive comeback win against the Packers, those bastards. Tough week on the picks, to be fair. The Cowboys did me wrong (although I’ll forgive them). The Buccs certainly did not deliver with an abysmal second half. I was lucky to get to 8-6 to be honest, I’m gonna need a few big weeks to get the season tally back up where it should be. I’ve been stagnating for a couple weeks now.

AJ Brown has broken 11 tackles this season. Only Alvin Kamara and DeAndre Hopkins have more. Dude is getting 7.2 yards per reception after the catch on an average depth of target of 9.8 yards. What that means, in plain English, is that he’s being targetted down the field and still makes big bonus yards. Basically all the guys ahead of him in YAC are running backs who are catching the ball on screens and checkdowns, often in the backfield. Alvin Kamara’s average depth of target is 0.4 yards. The only players with more YAC than Brown who are anywhere near his average depth of target are Mecole Hardman for the Chiefs (the Pat Mahomes effect), Danny Amendola (sneaky slot receiver for Detroit these days) & Darren Fells (Houston tight end, and he’s only at 7.0 ADOT).

Speaking of absolute toughness, AJB’s buddy Derrick Henry averages 1.8 yards per carry before contact. That’s the 39th best mark in the league. But 660 of his 1079 yards have come after contact... his YAC numbers alone would be seventh in the league.

This game is the real deal. These are two 7-3 teams tied for the lead in the AFC South. Both coming off impressive comeback wins against fellow playoff calibre teams. Both should make the postseason but getting that home playoff game is what you want if you’re planning on going deep, as each of these two teams should. Philip Rivers is at the arse end of his career which means it’s either win now or retire. The Titans were AFC Championship Game losers a year ago which means the Super Bowl is the next step of progression. The Colts beat the Titans 34-17 on TNF a few weeks ago... I’m gonna tip them to do the double, I reckon. But only just.

Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 3

Carolina Panthers (4-7) at Minnesota Vikings (4-6)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Who the hell is PJ Walker? I’m not the deepest NFL scout out there (clearly) but it’s pretty rare that I’m watching a game and I literally have no idea who one of the starting quarterbacks is. There’s a reason for that in this case... PJ Walker is an XFL dude. He went on and off the Colts’ practice squad over the last few years before playing for the Houston Roughnecks and by most accounts he was great there. No idea how that translates to the NFL because there’s not a huge history of players making that jump. But he won his first start. Threw 24/34 for 258 yards with one TD and 2 interceptions. Not a vintage game by any means yet more than enough to win against the Lions as that Carolina defence blanked them.

Teddy Bridgewater should be back for this game. Christian McCaffrey won’t be but Teddy should, against his old team of course. Not a bad opposition to catch right now either. The Vikings, brace yourself, lost to the Dallas Cowboys last week. I watched the entire game with no belief that the Cowboys would be good enough, or the Vikings bad enough, for that result to last but then the game kept on going and the Cowboys stayed in it. Even when they went behind late they still came back down the field for that winning scored with 1:37 left on the clock. Kirk Cousins had a passer rating of 140.1 and still lost. Dalvin Cook rushed for 115 yards to go with 45 more in the air and still lost. Some untimely turnovers. Some poor defence. Couldn’t get it done at the end.

I guess the Vikings are worse than I thought despite three straight wins before that. They would have been 5-5 with a win over Dallas with Jacksonville on the cards the week after this. At that point 9-7 was still very possible. Maybe even 10-6 if they could upset the Buccs or Saints on the road. Instead... well, there’s still Dalvin Cook’s rushing stats to play for. Here’s how that battle with Derrick Henry is looking after 11 weeks...

Dalvin Cook: 229 ATT | 1079 YDS | 9 TD | 4.7 Y/A | 107.9 Y/G | 0 FMB

Derrick Henry: 201 ATT | 1069 YDS | 13 TD | 5.3 Y/A | 118.8 Y/G | 3 FMB

Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 3

Arizona Cardinals (6-4) at New England Patriots (4-6)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Are the Patriots tanking? Because I’m starting to get very suspicious. One thing’s for sure: an 11 year playoff streak is going to come to an end. 15 playoff appearances in 16 years and the only one they missed in there they still finished 11-5 and missed out by a tiebreaker. The times they are a-changing.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 7

Miami Dolphins (6-4) at New York Jets (0-10)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Here’s the positive for the Jetties...

2021 NFL Draft:

• NYJ first round pick

• SEA first round pick

• NYJ second round pick

• NYJ third round pick

• SEA third round pick

• NYJ fourth round pick

• NYJ fifth round pick

• NYG fifth round pick

• NEP sixth round pick

2022 NFL Draft:

• NYJ first round pick

• SEA first round pick

• NYJ second round pick

• NYJ third round pick

• NYJ fifth round pick

• NYJ sixth round pick

• SF49 sixth round pick

• TBB sixth round pick

• NYJ seventh round pick

Add ‘em all together and that’s four first round picks over the next two years, 18 picks combined over that time. They might be absolutely terrible but there’s room to get a whole lot better... if their scouts are up to the task. Still, there are plenty of teams with more wins than NYJ this year but much cloudier paths to contention down the line.

So... maybe don’t drop him in the second half of a winnable game for Ryan Fitzpatrick of all people then? Like, that’s the job of a young quarterback. Gotta let them learn on the job because there’s no other way to do it. And if you do wanna drop him like that mid-game (even though he’s still the starter) then make sure you emphasise the injury factors that were clearly a part of his play. Protect the fella, that’s the franchise right there if he catches on.

Wildcard’s Pick: Dolphins by 10

Cleveland Browns (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Wildcard’s Pick: Browns by 9

New Orleans Saints (8-2) at Denver Broncos (4-6)

Monday 10.05am NZT

That’s not good, is it?

That is good, isn’t it?

Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 6

San Francisco 49ers (4-6) at Los Angeles Rams (7-3)

Monday 10.05am NZT

It’s been a weird season for the Niners, who’ve had to deal with just a ridiculous amount of injuries but while they seemed to be getting over everything and storming in the forward direction once more after wins against the Rams and Patriots... they’ve since been dropped in three consecutive games. Went down by 10 to the Seahawks, went down by 17 to the Packers, then went down by 14 to the Saints leading into their bye. Obviously that’s a tough trio of games but that’s only because San Fran had a pretty easy start to things and they entirely failed to take advantage of that. Lost to the Cardinals at home, beat the two New York teams, then lost to the Eagles and Dolphins – that’s how they started the season. Now we’re looking at a team that can finish with no better than 10 wins and more realistically, even if they really get rolling, they’re probably only gonna get to 8-8. Still gotta play the Bills and Seahawks, let alone this game here.

To be honest, I haven’t spent much time thinking about the Niners at all this season. The injuries made them irrelevant at first, their 4-6 record probably makes them irrelevant now. I always sorta felt like they’d turn things around and make the playoffs but that’s highly doubtful now. The defending NFC champs and the beaten Super Bowl finalists. Not even gonna make the playoffs. The weirdest thing about that is how often that’s happened recently, think of what the Panthers and Falcons have done since they made (and lost) Super Bowls. Even the Rams although they seem to have bounced back now.

The good news for the Niners is that they could get several key players back coming out of that bye. Richard Sherman is back training, for example. But the bad news is that they’re currently up to nine players on the covid unavailable list. A couple will be off it by the time of this game. A few more are touch and go. When it rains it pours, aye? There will be zero games this season where the Niners are even close to full strength. The consensus amongst fans seems to be that this is therefore a perfect opportunity to scoop up a quality quarterback in the draft... which is harsh to a bloke in Jimmy Garoppolo who literally took them to the Super Bowl last season. I realise he’s not the best choice out there and that success had a lot more to do with running the footy and defending like champs... but it’ll be interesting to see how it goes. One thing is for sure: Kyle Shanahan knows more about quarterbacks than you or I do.

Tell ya what, just having a quick peek at some Rams Defence stats and they have the second best scoring defence and are first in fewest yards conceded. Opposing quarterbacks are completing at 62.9% with 11 TDs and 10 INTs... which is roughly about a Nick Foles level. It helps when you have the best defensive player on the planet in Aaron Donald but mate Leonard Floyd has 7.0 sacks, 8 tackles for loss, and 2 fumble recoveries. Darious Williams has 4 interceptions. Jordan Fuller has 2 interceptions. Micah Kiser has made 77 tackles. Jalen Ramsay is somewhere in there too. Offensively they have their issues but let’s all take a moment to appreciate what this defensive unit is up to because they’re far from a one-man band.

Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 10

Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)

Monday 10.25am NZT

The man is a marvel. There’s just nothing else quite like watching Patrick Mahomes go about his business and when the Raiders left him 103 seconds to respond you just knew, you knew, that Mahomes was gonna get it done. Of course he was.

Meanwhile Tom Brady... I wrote down the quarterback stat comparisons between Brady and Mahomes to make a point about the baton well and truly being passed but what I found is that Brady’s stats are actually great. Even though the last few weeks it’s felt like his arm was barely clinging on by half a tendon. His arm strength has been visibly limited for years now and he has accuracy problems that he never used to... at the age of 43 all this is unprecedented, to be fair. Brady leads the league by miles in total inaccurate throws but he also incredibly leads the league in accurate throws too. Now, that second one is close enough that when the Buccs have their bye he’ll drop off but still. That sorta does explain the eye test where it feels like he goes from abysmal to incredible in the space of individual throws. Mostly accurate but with some absolute shanks in there. Come to think of it, it’s a similar trait that Roger Federer has developed in his tennis game in his own unprecedented latter years. Maybe that’s not a coincidence.

Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 7

Chicago Bears (5-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-3)

Monday 2.20pm NZT

The Bears are averaging 52.6 rush yards per game over their last seven matches. They’re averaging 16.7 points per game over that same period. It’s depressing to watch.

Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 4

Seattle Seahawks (7-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1)

Tuesday 2.15pm NZT

I’ve been arguing that since day one I never thought it would get to be this blatant. The Carson Wentz collapse has been stunning and shocking and each and every week you think he might recapture at least a little bit of something and instead he only gets worse. He’s not simply on a bad team here, like some underperforming QBs. He’s a large reason of why they’re bad. FOURTEEN INTERCEPTIONS. The guy is fifth in total pass attempts and 32nd in pass completion. He’s lost four fumbles (and has nine overall), he’s getting sacked on a league-worst 9.6% of passing plays. At this point, the only reason he should still be playing is if you’re trying to lose. Jalen Hurts, how’s it going champ?

Russell Wilson is the second most sacked quarterback in the league. Between these two they have 73 sacks. The difference is that Russell Wilson has an 8.4% sack rate but an 8.3% touchdown rate. Wentz has a 3.7% touchdown rate. Very much looking forward to seeing Tyler Lockette and DK Metcalf going bonkers on this one. Wilson had had a couple rough ones in a row before waxing the Cardinals last week (23/28 for 197 yards with 2 TDs and 0 picks) and his next three games are against the Eagles, Giants & Jets. Combined wins total of 6-23-1. Yeah, that’ll do it.

Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 14

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