Last Week: 12-3

Season: 127-64-1

New England Patriots (6-6) at Los Angeles Rams (8-4)

Friday 2.20pm NZT

Just when you think they’re on the way out they go and pull themselves back in. Dropped an unanswered 45 points on the Chargers... we should have known. Bill Belichick is now 21-5 against rookie quarterbacks. To be fair, I did pick them to win so that wasn’t the shocker. The shock was the extent of the victory, keeping Justin Herbert without a touchdown pass from 53 attempts. Some things are beyond the realms of possibility so we didn’t get a throwback Cam Newton performance or anything. There’s nobody on that team to throw to so 12/19 for 69 yards with 1 TD is about how it goes this year for him on a good day. He did get a couple scores on the ground though. Cam being Cam and all.

Nah, the Patriots turned it up on defence and special teams of course. 2 interceptions. A 70 yard punt return TD. A blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. You just know that Belichick must have loved a performance like that.

So, Gunner Olszewski, aye? Gunner is his actual name too. Kaleb Gunner Olszewski.

Didn’t look like it’d happen a few months back but the Rams are currently in first place in the NFC West thanks to their tiebreaker over the Seahawks (they play against in Seattle in a couple weeks). With all due respect to the DEF & ST Patriots, the Rams also have the Jets next week and should be 10-4 by the time they meet the Seahawks again. They’re gonna make the playoffs, man, I’m telling ya. The Patriots on the other hand... probably not. But at least they have this match-up to remind them of better days...

Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 9

Houston Texans (4-8) at Chicago Bears (5-7)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Mitch Trubisky vs Detroit:

65.7% COMP | 254.5 Y/G | 4 TD | 0 INT | 106.2 RATE | 8.41 AY/A

Mitch Trubisky vs Everyone Else:

59.4% COMP | 140.0 Y/G | 6 TD | 5 INT | 75.0 RATE | 4.74 AY/A

Deshaun Watson vs Everyone:

68.8% COMP | 295.2 Y/G | 24 TD | 6 INT | 110.0 RATE | 9.36 AY/A

Wildcard’s Pick: Texans by 5

Dallas Cowboys (3-9) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-9-1)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Oh. Oh no. That’s cold.

It’s also entirely accurate, to be fair. Look at the stats from that loss to the Ravens and Lamar Jackson threw a mere 107 passing yards (with 2 TDs and a deflected pick) from 17 attempts. Normally you see a line like that it’s because the other team turned the ball over about five times but the turnovers were even at one apiece. Instead the damage was probably done by the 37 rushes for 294 yards with 2 TDs that Baltimore earned/were gifted as a team. Jackson had 13 carries for 94 yards and a score. Gus Edwards had 101 yards from 7 carries. JK Dobbins 71 yards from 11 attempts. Poor old Mark Ingram only 6 for 28 – the only guy of the quartet who didn’t have a 30+ yard carry.

That, quite frankly, is an embarrassment. Case and point...

And it’s not all scheme either, the utter inability to complete tackles was pathetic to watch. Many of these players have been really good in the past, there’s just this weird sense of confusion and panic about the entire unit that’s spreading the rot even to guys like DaMarcus Lawrence and Leighton Vander Esch. Injuries have ruined this team on offence. There’s no excuse for this defence though. Mike Nolan’s surely gotta go, mate... the only problem is Jerry Jones will probably hire Gregg Williams to replace him.

Now, having said all that... the Bengals are fifth worst in yards per carry. Joe Mixon and Gio Bernard haven’t been very good at all, mixing duties between them (Mixon was injured for half the season). A lot of that is game situation stuff from a team that’s done a lot of losing but maybe they don’t have the weapons to do what other teams have been doing to the Cowboys. And of course it’s Andy Dalton’s return to his old team and surely that means he’ll do something a little better than the 5.9 yards per attempt he offered against Baltimore. It means nothing to either team but I think Dallas might sneak this one... it’d be consistent for them to win right as their results become irrelevant.

As for the issue of Dak Prescott: PAY THE MAN HIS DAMN MONEY, JERRY

Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 3

Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) at Miami Dolphins (8-4)

Monday 7.00am NZT

I have absolutely no idea how a referee is supposed to deliver a minute-long speech like this with no prompts or notes from the top of the dome, this is athletic prowess right here...

As to why that poor/talented fella had to recite all that...

Yeah! NFL fights! Where fists fly and helmets and pads ensure that nobody gets hurt whatsoever unless the punched jams his finger on a grill or something. Almost like it’s not at all worth it, right?

Also not worth it was this backflip attempt from Tyreek Hill. Fluffed the landing but still gets positive points for merely attempting what I don’t think you can even call a celebration because he hadn’t scored when he launched into the flip. The flip was how he scored. But take the floppy landing and add in that the touchdown didn’t even count because of a flag back near the line of scrimmage and maybe he should’ve saved this one for a better time. It’s not like he gets any shortage of opportunities playing with Patrick Mahomes – initials PM which also stand for Perennial MVP.

It was only against the Bengals, hence why the training wheels were taken off, but that was Tua Tagovailoa’s best game as a pro by far. 26/39 for 296 yards with a touchdown. He didn’t get sacked once after going down six times two weeks ago (he was injured last week, remember). Sneakily he’s yet to throw an interception either and he’s thrown more scores (7) than Cam Newton. Only one behind Daniel Jones in less than half the games. Pretty sure this game won’t be particularly close because you already know Brian Flores will put the clamps on Tua again (he’s barely been used as a runner yet) and up against Patrick Mahomes that defence and special teams excellence which has been winning them games won’t happen. But tell ya one thing, between Tua’s lefty smoothness and Mahomes’ weird arm angles this could be the most aesthetically pleasing quarterback duel of the year.

Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 10

Denver Broncos (4-8) at Carolina Panthers (4-8)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 3

Arizona Cardinals (6-6) at New York Giants (5-7)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Since their bye week the Cardinals have gone 1-4 and as that streak has gone on Kyler Murray has been missing progressively more and more silly throws. With the Giants, Eagles, and 49ers all in a row the Cards probably need to win all three if they’re gonna make the postseason. But the Giants have been battling lately, the Eagles looked so much better with Jalen Hurts at QB in the second half last week, and the Niners are getting a little healthier too to be fair. It’s an awkward place for the Cardies to be in. Daniel Jones is hoping to return for this match. Even if he doesn’t play then they’ll have the master Colt McCoy who just led these Giants to a hilarious win over the Seahawks. Who bloody saw that one coming? I certainly didn’t. It was McCoy’s first win as a starter since 2014, lol. He’s now a career 8-21 as a starter so good for him. Comeback Player of the Year, surely!? (Yes, I jest).

Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 4

Minnesota Vikings (6-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Righto, two teams on the brink... let’s play playoff machine and see what’s up...

Hmm. Bound to be a few upsets that mix this up. Pretty crazy though how a few of these teams, like Washington are one team after a few good performances, have a surprisingly easy run-in. Green Bay are another and that battle between them and New Orleans for the top seed is gonna be good – only one team gets a first round bye this time so the top seed is bug business. Makes that loss for Pittsburgh last week so drastic.

Then with the extra wildcard that also gives Minnesota a sneaky opportunity. Arizona (also 8-8 in this simulation but losing the tiebreaker) are the only other team that feels like a realistic challenger there. Tampa Bay should get through with the Falcons twice on the cards as well as the Lions – another of these easy run-ins. Should get Miami, Buffalo, and Cleveland all into the postseason this year too which is madness given those are the three teams more than any others who have been the worst at getting over that line. Las Vegas are in the hunt as well as Baltimore but I just don’t trust those teams that much. Things can change enormously in the space of one week in this league though, let alone four weeks.

Wildcard’s Pick: Buccs by 7

Tennessee Titans (8-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-11)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Should be all good this week coz not sure anybody will be watching. Then again... the Jags only lost in overtime last week and they were within two points of the Browns the week before. The Browns who just lit up the Titans defence with a near perfect first half. I dunno, after 11 straight defeats there’s surely a cheeky win left in them between now and the end of the season. Especially after the way that the Jets managed to keep that zero intact.

Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 9

Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-5)

Monday 10.05am NZT

Unbelievable. On a day full of some really great finishes, this was by far the best one. The Raiders on the brink of an inconceivable loss to the Jets and then even more inconceivably they end up winning it at the bloody buzzer. Now, I’ll get into some NYJ perspective in the next game but as far as the Raiders go this was huge. The difference between 7-5 and 6-6 a this stage of the season is huge. Not to mention the residual dumbness that would’ve lingered from losing to the Jets, of all teams.

Bit of a worry here... the Raiders lost 43-6 to the Falcons two weeks ago and needed a last second miracle (/bottle job from NYJ) to be the Jets last week and now this week they face a team that’s better than both those opponents combined. Against the Falcons it was the five turnovers that burned them. Against the Jets it was mostly their defence, giving up 206 yards on the deck. Mostly but not entirely because Derek Carr threw a season-high 381 yards but at only 59.6% completion. Josh Jacobs did next to nothing. This against the Jets. The Colts will eat them alive if they don’t drastically improve.

Interesting that the four teams with the fewest sacks are the Steelers (10), Packers (14), Colts (15), and Buccaneers (16). The Rams and Chiefs are also on 16 but those first four teams all have something else in common: old man quarterbacks. Apologies to Aaron Rodgers who is playing like an MVP so different requirements to Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Brady who are all clearly on the other side of the hill and these days play in a way that’s intended to hide their wobbliness – athletically as much as arm-related. Same deal is evident with the percentage of passing plays in which there’s been pressure only this time Drew Brees joins the crew...

1. Drew Brees – 13.5%

2. Aaron Rodgers – 13.8%

3. Philip Rivers – 14.8%

4. Ben Roethlisberger – 14.9%

5. Baker Mayfield – 16.8%

6. Tom Brady – 16.8%

The best protected quarterbacks are the old guys that need that protection the most. And Baker Mayfield too... who sorta plays like a young version of an old quarterback in a way too. He’s at his best with a strong rushing game, throws a really accurate ball but has limitations in his game that have to be worked around (most dudes do, to be fair - that’s not necessarily a criticism... especially after last week’s performance). Andy Dalton actually has a better pressure rate than any of them but he’s only made five starts and the Cowboys offence doesn’t even really try to throw the ball deep any more so he doesn’t count. Meanwhile the guys under the most pressure are folks like Nick Mullens, Alex Smith, Sam Darnold, Justin Herbert, Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones... and Russell Wilson. As you do.

Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 7

New York Jets (0-12) at Seattle Seahawks (8-4)

Monday 10.05am NZT

Adam Gase to ESPN: “At the start of my career, I heard that for seven years: You have 24 hours to get over it. I think the only time I've ever been involved in a loss like this was to end a playoff game, so I could be pissed as long as I wanted to because nobody cares. It's tough. It's tough. Our players will do a good job and they will respond the right way. They have through this whole thing. As coaches, we have to do the same thing.”

Says the guy who is 7-21 as head coach of the Jets. He’s only taken charge of one playoff game as a head coach and that was in his first season with the Dolphins (they lost 30-12 to the Steelers) so basically he’s full of shit when he talks about how much that loss sucked. We all know this team is on the tank. It’s awful to lose a game in that fashion but let’s be honest it’s kind of the perfect way to lose for a team in this situation – I’m sceptical about the benefits of tanking, you waste an entire season and get this Trevor Lawrence fella and then what? There’s no talent on your team around him and maybe he doesn’t pan out anyway. Injuries or bad play, whatever. The greatest quarterback of all time was a seventh round pick (Tom Brady). Patrick Mahomes went tenth overall. Aaron Rodgers 24th overall. Russell Wilson was a third round pick.

Here are the last however many quarterbacks taken first overall...

• 2020 – Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)

• 2019 – Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals)

• 2018 – Baker Mayfield (Cleveland Browns)

• 2016 – Jared Goff (Los Angeles Rams)

• 2015 – Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

• 2012 – Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)

• 2011 – Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)

• 2010 – Sam Bradford (St Louis Rams)

• 2009 – Detroit Lions (Matthew Stafford)

• 2007 – JaMarcus Russell (Oakland Raiders)

• 2005 – Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers)

It’s a bit different when you’re specifically targetting a certain person but... yeah I s’pose the Jets don’t really have any other avenue to contention so might as well go all in. How else do you explain throwing an all-out blitz against a team in search of a Hail Mary touchdown with seven seconds remaining. Seven men going after the quarterback with an eighth hanging in the middle for no reason. Three fellas in the deep field against them Raiders receivers. Not a lot of help. Ordinarily teams will rush with maybe three guys just in case and then leave everybody else back to bat down the pass knowing that all you have to do is force an incompletion somehow. Or even a completion anywhere short of the goal line. What happened instead is that Lamar Jackson (no, not that one), the Jets’ defensive back lined up against Henry Ruggs, got beaten one on one for the score. Which in itself was stupid because why would he bite on the double move when a shorter completion is in his favour? Terrible game awareness which stems from bad coaching.

But not everybody was down in the dumps about the loss...

Crossing live to the Williams’ household now...

Aaaaand this week they get to play against Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockette, and DK Metcalf.

Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 17

Green Bay Packers (9-3) at Detroit Lions (5-7)

Monday 10.25am NZT

Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 14

New Orleans Saints (10-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-8-1)

Monday 10.25am NZT

Picture Carson Wentz. Alone in a dark bar, it’s a Saturday night and the Eagles have a game the next day but Carson Wentz won’t be starting so he’s sitting here, sipping on mojitos, wishing he was. There’s an old fella in a business suit, his tie loosened and his hair ever so slightly ruffled, signing a Kenny Rogers tune into a cheap microphone as the lyrics bounce on a screen in front of him. Nobody else is paying much attention. His song finishes and it’s now Wentz’s turn. There’s a light round of applause as his name is called and Carson winces just a little at the attention. He walks up to the front of the room and the old fella in the rumpled suit hands him the microphone. Wentz looks past it down towards his toes. He clears his throat as the opening bars of the REM track Everybody Hurts begin playing...

We only got a small glimpse of Hurts but he’s already better than Wentz. He nearly sparked a cheeky comeback and he clearly gave that offence a boost of optimism that they simply hadn’t been getting with Wentz making the same mistakes over and over. Doug Pederson is the type of guy, I wouldn’t rule out him going back to Wentz at some point but Hurts is gonna get his window.

Some slight issues for Philly... Wentz has a 4yr/$128m contract extension that doesn’t even kick in until next season and there’s a lot of guaranteed money in there. If they cut him in the offseason then they still have to pay him $34 million in salary and a total of $59 million in dead cap space. I don’t really understand how that works but I s’pose it’s a designed contract tweak from his agent to stop him being cut in this way. Frankly, that ain’t happening. But this is the NFL and if Nick Foles can be traded on a terrible contract then there will be teams willing to take a crack on Wentz. If you’re the Jaguars or something and you don’t get Trevor Lawrence then give Wentz a go and if he’s good then you’re good, if he’s not then you lose games and draft high. Where things get stupid is with people saying the Eagles can get a first round pick back for him... mate, if that happens then somebody needs to be fired.

Teams that might be possible Wentz destinations...

• Indianapolis Colts with Rivers only on a 1yr deal and close to retirement

• New England Patriots for obvious reasons

• Chicago Bears for even more obvious reasons... hey they could even trade Foles back!

• Washington Football Team if they wanna go a little younger with a guy they’ve played heaps against

• Jacksonville Jaguars if they don’t get Trevor Lawrence, as already stated

• Denver Broncos since Wentz is actually 6’5 and we all know Elway loves a tall bloke

• San Francisco 49ers if they can get off of Jimmy G’s contract

That’s about it. Mostly I think the Eagles are gonna have to sit on that contract and pay Wentz the fifth highest salary in the league next season to be a backup.

Fitting that Jalen Hurts gets his first start against Taysom Hill, a guy who he’s probably got a bit more natural QB skill than but early days in his NFL career it’d make sense for Pederson to get back to the funky stuff and the way that Sean Payton uses Taysom Hill is the definition of funky. Old mate Hill (who is 30 years old so people gotta stop talking about him like he’s some young upstart) is in his fourth year in the league and he has 8 rushing touchdowns and 7 receiving touchdowns but last week was his first ever (and then second ever) passing touchdown. Took him 49 games.

Fun fact: the New Orleans Saints are 8-0 in games without Drew Brees over the last two years.

Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 9

Atlanta Falcons (4-8) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-9)

Monday 10.25am NZT

Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 6

Washington Football Team (5-7) at San Francisco 49ers (5-7)

Monday 10.25am NZT

Yeah yeah, everyone wants to talk about the injury comeback. That goes without saying though – like, there’s nothing to add other than that it’s amazing that he’s gotten back to top tier professional sports after what he’s been through. That’s literally all there is to say, everything else is repetition. But how about this entire Football Team who have won three games in a row, all in impressive fashion (and before that they had 3-point losses to the Giants and Lions so this is something that’s been brewing, steady improvements). Smith’s been decent – which is better than what they were getting before he started. Antonio Gibson’s coming good. But mostly it’s that defensive unit, led by second overall pick Chase Young, which is leading the way. They allowed 21 total rush yards against the Steelers. They actually have the best redzone defence in the league in terms of touchdowns allowed per attempt.

There were a lot of feel-good stories about this franchise earlier in the season from Smith’s comeback to Ron Rivera’s cancer treatment but now we’re past the happy consolation stage to where the Football Team might be about to win this division and make the playoffs. The Giants also had a huge upset win, beating the Seahawks, and the G-Men have the head to head tiebreaker over Washington which ain’t ideal. But the WFT are the only team in the NFC East that is getting better as the season progresses.

The Niners are also sitting at 5-7 and any hope of making the playoffs from here depends on winning out. Maybe they will... they’re 1-4 in since November started but that was a brutal stretch of fixtures: losing to the Seahawks, Packers, and Saints all in a row before beating the Rams and losing to the Bills. Potentially all playoff teams including three teams in the running for the NFC top seed. They’ve looked sharper in defence since Richard Sherman returned, you can tell what a leader he is for them. I don’t rate Nick Mullens that much... but they’re really well coached even to still be any chance at all after the injuries they’ve had. Damn I was leaning Washington but I think I just talked myself around. Either way, sneaky good games this one.

Wildcard’s Pick: Niners by 2

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1) at Buffalo Bills (9-3)

Monday 2.20pm NZT

Time to play some devil’s advocate here with the Steelers... last week I went through their remaining games to see when they were most likely to lose and this was the game I picked. Didn’t think they’d drop one to Washington but here we are. Now let’s go through all their wins and see what’s what...

• New York Giants – Won by 10 points with Big Ben making his comeback, Giants are an NFC East team though so doesn’t really count

• Denver Broncos – Led by 14 points at the half but needed their defence to bail them out in the fourth quarter

• Houston Texans – Trailed going into the fourth quarter but got there when it mattered... against a Bill O’Brien Texans team

• Philadelphia Eagles – This was the game that Chase Claypool scored 4TDs. Not convincing but clearly too good for a sloppy Eagles side

• Cleveland Browns – Absolutely blew them out for a 38-3 win. Great performance

• Tennessee Titans – Went toe to toe with a strong team but nearly blew it after a 27-7 lead as Stephen Gostkowski missed a field goal in the final seconds that woulda forced overtime

• Baltimore Ravens – Can’t argue with a division win however they come. Had to come back from 10 points down at the half and survived a late rally as Lamar Jackson threw incomplete into the endzone on the final play for a 28-24 win

• Dallas Cowboys – Terrible Cowboys team with Garrett Gilbert starting at QB and they nearly bloody lost, scoring 15 points in the fourth for a 24-19 win

• Cincinnati Bengals – Easy win against a bad team

• Baltimore Ravens – Decent but unspectacular win in a game that was delayed about three times because of covid stuff – Robert Griffin II started for the Ravens with Jackson out sick while Big Ben threw 51 times for just 266 yards

All up there’s one great win there, three decent ones, and the rest were all sitters. I’d say they beat up on the NFC East but they did lose to Washington so that’s not quite true. If they still had a full capacity defence then I’d cut them more slack, as it is I still think this is a strong team that can win playoff games but maybe the whole 11-0 thing to start the season was slightly misleading.

Both these teams can clinch a playoff spot with a win here. For the Steelers, that’s a matter of time thing. If not this week then next. For the Bills... well, they went 16 years without making the playoffs before 2017 so to make it three appearances in four years would really be something. Maybe they’ll even win a playoff game this time – something they haven’t done since 1995.

Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 6

Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at Cleveland Browns (9-3)

Tuesday 2.15pm NZT

There it is folks, the secret to the Browns’ first winning season since 2007.Don’t do what an idiot would do. Solid advice for all walks of life.

Hey this is awesome too...

Always love the deep cut analysis. I’m tired now though so gonna leave it there.

Wildcard’s Pick: Browns by 3

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