Last Week: 10-6

Season: 137-70-1

Los Angeles Chargers (4-9) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-6)

Friday 2.20pm NZT

Yeah, that’ll do it. Thaaaaat’ll do it. I’d say that will do it. Yeah, that’ll do it.

It probably won’t do it but something had to change because this team got smoked by the Falcons, needed a miracle play to beat the lowly Jets, then got bossed up by the Colts. The Colts played great and that defence is the real deal since Darius Leonard got healthy (naturally he’s hurt again now... but it doesn’t sound too serious), but the Raiders giving up 200+ rush yards in consecutive games is a disaster. They also lost to the Patriots earlier in the season giving up 250 rush yards... that kinda thing has a flow on effect in the rest of the game as the clock drains and defenders get tired and the offence is compromised as a result. The Raiders are 5-0 when they rush for 130+ yards themselves and 2-6 when they don’t. When they rush for less than 130 yards they average 145 rush yards against. Life is a constant battle between ebb and flow.

Happy for Justin Herbert to get a decent win last week, topping the Atlanta Falcons in a close one. His previous two wins had come against the Jaguars and Jets so about time he got one over the line. Dude’s thrown 25 touchdowns as a rookie – the record is 27 by Baker Mayfield so that bad boy’s gonna tumble. Andrew Luck’s rookie season 4,374 passing yards is a tougher one to catch but he’s still in the hunt at 3467 yds.

The Chargers are bottom five in rush yards per attempt so that oughta sort this one out. But we’ll see how that goes with Rod Marinelli in charge. He’s a fella I know well from his days with the Cowboys and he had some decent defences and he also had some straight up terrible ones but he did focus on the defensive line so you’d expect some improvement in that rush defence. The Raiders have this game then the Dolphins then they’re away to the Broncos and they definitely need to win at least two of those, potentially need to win all three. No more room for error.

Wildcard’s Pick: Raiders by 6

Buffalo Bills (10-3) at Denver Broncos (5-8)

Sunday 10.30am NZT

What’s this... Sunday games? Okay sure. Might as well.

The Bills’ win over the Steelers sorta got overshadowed by some of the drama before it and then by the madly brilliant game 24 hours later but that was huge. They defended excellently after going behind early, taking the lead into half-time after Taron Johnson ran an interception back 51 yards to score and then pulling away in the third quarter thanks to some prime Josh Allen. The Steelers did nothing on the ground and Roethlisberger was picked off twice. Very impressive... including a 130 yard night for Stefon Diggs. Nobody has more catches than Diggs, the first guy to crack triple figures in 2020, and only Travis Kelce and DK Metcalf have more total yards. Damn, imagine if a tight end wins the receiving title... has that ever happened before?

Quick bit of research suggests: No, it has not. George Kittle had 1377 yards two years ago which is the tight end record, Kelce is 127 yards behind him with three games left and the best quarterback in the world throwing to him. So that’s gonna happen, just a matter of whether Diggs or Metcalf or Hokpins or Adams or even his buddy Hill can catch him.

Buffalo are one win away. If they win here then they clinch the AFC East title which will be their first since 1995 and the first time anyone other than the Patriots will have won it since 2008, and just the second non-Pats division title since 2002. In fact the Bills don’t even need to win, they can lose and have the Dolphins lose and they’ll be in. One of many playoff ramifications this week...

Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 11

Carolina Panthers (4-9) at Green Bay Packers (10-3)

Sunday 2.15pm NZT

Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons (4-9)

Monday 7.00am NZT

The Falcons and the Chargers played a close game and neither of them choked? 2020 must almost be over.

I hadn’t thought about this but the Buccs haven’t made the playoffs since 2007. Haven’t got there the last 12 years in a row which is the second longest active drought. Obviously the Cleveland Browns have gone longer (Jets are next, they were 2010... then it’s Cardinals, Bengals, Washington & Broncos who all made it in 2015). But tell ya what the Browns are gonna make it and the Buccs are a good bet too. TBB currently occupy the sixth seed and two more wins should do it. One more win might even be enough if they get lucky with some other spots.

They’re a funky team, these Buccaneers. Tom Brady has his good days and his bad days aged 43, the pass rush is starting to look very good but they haven’t been great against the rush defence lately. Speaking of rushing Ronald Jones II has been having a top year... but now he’s on the reserve/covid list. They’re a tough one to get a handle on although they’ve got three very winnable games left on the cards. Two against the Falcons with the Lions in between. Surely get the job done from there.

Wildcard’s Pick: Buccs by 3

San Francisco 49ers (5-8) at Dallas Cowboys (4-9)

Monday 7.00am NZT

What am I supposed to say about these jokers? Two of the most all over the place teams in the entire competition – largely due to injuries (though Dallas can add some bad coaching into the pot).

The Niners might yet bring George Kittle back before the season is over though Jimmy Garoppolo seems unlikely to play again before 2021 and by then the team might even have drafted another quarterback. If Nick Mullens wanted to make that gig his own he’s gone the wrong way about it by throwing seven interceptions and losing two fumbles in the last five weeks. He’s lost five outta six starts since Garoppolo got re-injured again. It’s not been good... but injuries across the board have meant it was an uphill slog regardless. And by losing to Washington last week the Niners have bombed any final hopes of making the playoffs. Not officially – the Falcons are the only NFC team officially out of the running (that’ll change this week) – but let’s be honest.

As for the Cowboys, every time I give up on them they do something interesting but thankfully I was prepared for last week’s win over the Bengals. It was Andy Dalton in Cincinnati. A Bengals team with nothing to play for. The Dallas defence freaked out and got a bunch of turnovers to establish a lead (all fumbles which is funky given how bad this team was with protecting the ball in those early weeks) and that allowed them to control things against a bad team... it was a lovely routine win but nothing to suggest that Dallas might make a run for the NFC East title. Winning here would maybe do that. But are they capable? Well, I’m a sucker so yeah I guess I’m gonna have to predict it. This most pathetic of divisions is Washington’s to lose though unless the Jalen Hurts Eagles get frisky.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 3

Detroit Lions (5-8) at Tennessee Titans (9-4)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Some individual games from Derrick Henry this season:

• 119 rush yards @ 4.58 Y/C with 2 TDs vs MIN (W3)

• 212 rush yards @ 9.64 Y/C with 2 TDs vs HOU (W6)

• 112 rush yards @ 6.22 Y/C with 1 TD vs CIN (W7)

• 178 rush yards @ 6.59 Y/C with 3 TDs vs IND (W12)

• 215 rush yards @ 8.27 Y/C with 2 TDs vs JAX (W14)

And that’s not even all of them. Four teams have kept him under 80 yards in a game: the Bills, Steelers, Bears & Browns. The Bills game was a blowout win though so that doesn’t really count plus they still beat the Bears in that one too. Derrick Henry has 8 100+ yard rushing games this season. Dalvin Cook as 7 of them. Nick Chubb has 5. James Robinson and Ronald Jones both 4. Henry has two 200+ days included in that, Dalvin Cook has one.

The Detroit Lions meanwhile have one total 100 yard rusher, D’Andre Swift who did so against the Jaguars in week six. That’s it. Better hope they can make it a shootout.

Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 7

Houston Texans (4-9) at Indianapolis Colts (9-4)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Maaaaate that is something.

Then chuck in rookie running back Jonathan Taylor who is on a bit of a tear all of a sudden and the Colts are getting better at the exact right time. Getting some fresh air, one might say.

The Colts won 26-20 when these two teams played two weeks ago. Deshaun Watson with 341 passing yards but no touchdowns and one interception. Houston didn’t run the ball particularly often or particularly well either. Meanwhile young mate Taylor had 91 yards at seven per carry and TY Hilton had eight catches for 110 yards as Philip Rivers did what needed to be done, going 27/35 for 285 yards with 2 scores and no picks. Only two points in the entire second half in that one, oddly. A fourth quarter safety in Houston’s favour. Don’t see why this game should go too differently – and the Colts are clearly the team better suited to make positive adjustments.

Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 8

New England Patriots (6-7) at Miami Dolphins (8-5)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Here it is. The final nail in the coffin. All them years of the Patriots controlling the AFC East (if the Buccs make the playoffs, which they should, it’ll be the first time in Tom Brady’s career that he’s been on a wildcard team)... but now they need to win out and still have other results go their way if they’re gonna make the playoffs. Defeat here to a team currently in that very same race, a team that’s been trampled on more than most by the Patriots dynasty, well that’ll just be poetry.

Wildcard’s Pick: Dolphins by 7

Chicago Bears (6-7) at Minnesota Vikings (6-7)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 4

Seattle Seahawks (9-4) at Washington Football Team (6-7)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Good from that guy. DK Metcalf just making sure the fellas know to film his best side next side.

Washington are in a sneaky place here. They’re the only team in the NFC East all season who have made a turn of the corner with some decent performances and then actually maintained that. A scrappy win over San Fran despite Alex Smith getting injured, holding on in the fourth quarter, has them in first place with four wins in a row and if it’s not gonna be the Cowboys then I do hope that Washington make it because for whatever reason they’re the division rival I hate the least and even I’ve gotta say there’s a lot of feelgood storylines around this team.

Also... there’s Chase Young. Who is fast becoming an absolute stud of a defender, making game-changing plays pretty much every week. He got his first career touchdown last week with a fumble return. Then he gave his mum the floor during his post-game presser...

Not really seeing how they’ll beat the Seahawks although they’re the Seahawks so you never know. But after this they’ve got Carolina and Philadelphia and two wins there will seal it, one win will put them close. Philly in week 17 could yet be a playoff-playoff... depends on what Jalen Hurts gets up to and also whether the Giants can hold on with Daniel Jones copping some hurts of his own lately. Karmically speaking... only the Football Team can even put a case up for them deserving the NFC East title. Those other three need complete psychic cleansing rituals in the offseason.

Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 6

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-12) at Baltimore Ravens (8-5)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Best game of NFL I’ve watched all season. It was absolutely thrilling, that second half was incredible. Rush touchdowns all over the show – nine of them between the teams which ties a record for most in a game that goes all the way back to 1922. Lamar Jackson was unplayable, Baker Mayfield had one of the games of his life. There were comebacks and responses and late drives and even a cheeky safety right at the end. You don’t even need me to tell you that 47-42 was scorigami too, of course it was. To think that the Browns won the reverse fixture 38-6.

But the thing that’s got everyone talking was Lamar Jackson’s dash to the locker room. Being treated for cramps was the official message... but the conspiracy theorists out there had a different idea. They said he was poopin’.

So was he? Let’s review the tape..

Hmm... compelling evidence. Now I present the case for the defence...

Paul Pierce catching strays in the post-game, damn bro.

My honest assessment... why wouldn’t he be cramping? My guy ran for 124 yards with a couple touchdowns, both season highs for him and let’s not forget that he did sorta have the coronavirus not so long ago. I’m pretty sure the official explanation holds up therefore no real reason to be digging any deeper, right? Occam’s Razor is what that theory is called: the obvious answer is usually the right answer. Now, if his explanation didn’t hold up then we’d definitely have to be asking for DNA samples from the bathroom stalls off the Ravens’ locker rooms but it does so thankfully no poor FBI agent is gonna be tasked with such a job. That was the best Lamar Jackson has played all season by the way and now he gets a crack at the Jacksonville Jaguars (a big welcome back from injured reserve to Gardner Minshew!). Playing himself into form just in time to do something humiliating to a one-win team.

Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 21

New York Jets (0-13) at Los Angeles Rams (9-4)

Monday 10.05am NZT

That oughta keep them Jets fans going. As for the Rams...

Cam Akers Wks 1-11: 50 ATT | 201 YDS | 0 TD | 4.02 Y/A | 25.1 Y/G

Cam Akers Wks 12-14: 59 ATT | 327 YDS | 2 TD | 5.54 Y/A | 109 Y/G

Rookie running back starting to get it going.

Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 10

Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1) at Arizona Cardinals (7-6)

Monday 10.05am NZT

His name is Jalen Hurts. He’s 22 years old. He’s the starting quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles.

It wasn’t always pretty but it was definitely effective, Hurst throwing for 167 yards and rushing for another 106. Carson Wentz used to try to extend the play and would often run the ball when things broke down – look at me saying ‘used to’ like he’s retired or something, lol – but Jalen Hurts can actually do those things. The New Orleans Saints had incredibly gone 56 games in a row without allowing a 100 yard rusher and when that streak was finally broken it wasn’t Derrick Henry or Dalvin Cook or Nick Chubb... it was Jalen Hurst, a quarterback. And also Miles Sanders who had 114 yards on the ground himself... no 100 yard rushers for 56 games and then two in the same game. London buses, dude.

Interesting yarns from ESPN: “Player and team sources told ESPN's Chris Mortensen that QB is Hurts' job for the rest of the season, barring injury or disastrous play. Also, the Eagles intend to keep Wentz and have him be a major part of the team moving forward, sources told Adam Schefter, so while there is some sorting out to do at the QB position over the long term, it's Hurts' show for now.”

There’s not really a comparison between Hurst and Wentz. Tiny sample size so gotta see Hurst play a lot better than he has done so far as a passer (no dramas there: still a rookie, still better than Wentz the Walking Turnover) but even in his first start he had genuine playmaking ability with his feet that changes the whole complexion of that Eagles offence. He was playing against the New Orleans Saints and he won, that’s a legit defence and a legit result.

Next up he gets to deal with this guy...

Kyler Murray versus Jalen Hurst could be like that spiderman meme where the mirror images are pointing at each other. Maybe... still early days for Hurts. But Kyler feels like his closest aspirational comparison at the moment. Kyler’s not been fantastic this season... but the Cardies are there or thereabouts and if they can beat the Eagles and 49ers in a row then they’ll be 9-6 heading into a final week bout against the Rams with the playoffs still very much a possibility.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 7

Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) at New Orleans Saints (10-3)

Monday 10.25am NZT

Ooh good fun. This is a possible Super Bowl clash actually, two teams with a great shot at getting the top seeds. The Chiefs should get there, the Saints could get there. New Orleans would have clinched their division with a win over the Eagles but that didn’t happen, however they do have Drew Brees back in training now so that’s cool. At a guess I reckon he won’t play this week, they’re gonna be cautious with him. But one more wrinkle to this contest, I s’pose.

Taysom Hill’s done fine in Brees’ absence while Sean Payton has been amazing. But this game will come down to the other side of the ball where the Saints defence, which has been really great lately, has to find a way to slow down Patrick Mahomes. Which... I just don’t know how they do that. Mahomes threw a few picks last week against Miami and that was bonkers, three picks in one game after only throwing two all season previously. But that’s Miami who are the only team with a defensive turnover in every single game... and anyway the Chiefs still won.

A six-point win and that makes it five straight single-score victories for KCC, a stat that sounds like maybe they’re a little vulnerable but also sounds like they keep on finding ways to win which ends up being more demoralising than what we started at. The Broncos did run the Chiefs close by literally running over them so maybe Alvin Kamara needs to have a blinder. I dunno, the Kansas City Chiefs are a puzzle that nobody has managed to solve yet. Maybe the Saints have some ideas, we shall see.

Man, imagine that alternate history.

Something else to think about... I disagree, I think Mahomes is the frontrunner at this stage, but it’s pretty neck and neck with three games to go and the tougher schedule for KCC could tilt it...

Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 6, of course

Cleveland Browns (9-4) at New York Giants (5-8)

Monday 2.20pm NZT

Baker Mayfield in defeat versus the Ravens:

28/47 COMP | 343 YDS | 2 TD | 1 INT | 87.5 RATE

Actually those numbers are sorta basic... but the raw #s don’t tell the full story. Especially on those crucial third/fourth quarter drives as Mayfield responded to his interception by taking the Browns 75 yards on 12 plays for a touchdown, 70 yards on 12 plays for a touchdown, then 75 yards on 4 plays for a touchdown. The only problem was that they were too efficient in getting that last one. Left too much time on the clock and Lamar Jackson was able to drive just far enough that Justin Tucker – the greatest kicked in NFL History – could drill a 55-yarder for the win to avoid overtime.

It means that the Browns have to wait another week before they can confirm the end of their playoff drought. It’ll happen, letting the Ravens back into the wildcard mix just means it’ll tale longer than hoped. 2002 was the last time they made the postseason. With the Giants this week and Jets next week it’s only a matter of time.

Fun fact!

Wildcard’s Pick: Browns by 10

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-10-1)

Tuesday 2.15pm NZT

Eleven wins in a row and now two consecutive defeats. That streak will end here against a terrible and purposeless Bengals team that, given the opportunity, would happily ended their season the moment that Joe Burrow was hurt. Nice chance to blast them out of the water and get people back onside with the Steelers... even though nothing that happens here should matter at all.

What’s curious is both Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin both talked about the Steelers not being physical enough, especially on offence. That’s an odd one for a team that has young, speedy wideouts and which hasn’t been too great running the ball recently. Roughing things up won’t make them better or more efficient. It started off well with at least 109 rush yards as a team in each of the first give games... but they’ve not topped that mark again since and in five of their last seven matches they’ve been held under 50 yards.

That coincides with James Conner missing a couple games but he was back for Buffalo and had 18 yards on 10 rushes. He’s still not a hundy percent so can’t judge him too harsh but yeah it’s been a stink one for them. Can’t get the run going and in place of that they’ve fully embraced the dink and dunk offensive system. Roethlisberger’s last four games he’s attempted 187 passes for 1025 yards. That’s 46.8 for 256.3 per game. Hasn’t averaged six yards per attempt in any of those four games – for context Carson Wentz’s season average is 6.0 Y/A. Same as Nick Foles and Andy Dalton. Sam Darnold is last with 5.8 Y/A. The passing game has become the new rushing game... but who takes over for the missing passing game? That’s the question, aye.

Crazy tone to be taking over an 11-2 team though. They’re still in the hunt for the top seed and we’re all talking about them like they’re in free fall. Can’t help but wonder how much those defensive injuries have shrunk their margin for error offensively... it’s another one of those indirect cause and effect things like we started off talking about. Dominoes, mate.

Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 13

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