There are two NBA franchises that tend to get hefty focus in these parts because of their kiwi connections: one is Steven Adams’ Oklahoma City Thunder and the other is Sean Marks’ Brooklyn Nets. And in the last week there’s been a rather stark contrast there because while the Nets just hired a new head coach, the Thunder have agreed to let theirs go. Billy Donovan departing by mutual consent at the end of his contract after five years with the franchise – making the playoffs each time though failing to make it out of the first round in any of the past four years (there was a somewhat legendary Western Conference Finals appearance in Billy D’s first season... and then Kevin Durant left).

Important point to emphasise here: Billy Donovan was not fired. This isn’t the Thunder pressing the button on the escape hatch because Donovan bollocksed up that final play of game seven against the Houston Rockets. It’s probably fair to say that Donovan isn’t a fantastic play designer or in-game manager which are aspects of coaching that come under the microscope in the playoffs... but he’s also been brilliant at helping to build and rebuild a positive atmosphere in the squad – honestly what he’s had to deal with over his five years is insane considering the player turnover. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Chris Paul, (Carmelo Anthony)… all came in and out and yet they were a constant in the playoffs. Billy Donovan was Co-Coach of the Year this season along with Mike Budenholzer (whose playoff adjustments have also come under severe pressure, much more deservingly than Donovan’s too). Dude did nothing wrong, that’s not the issue here.

So what was the issue then? It’s a secret hidden in plain sight, all you have to do is take a peek at the quotes from the Thunder’s press release...

Sam Presti: “We had planned to sit down at the end of the season and discuss the best way to move forward for both of us. After those discussions, it became apparent that we couldn’t provide him the information on the future direction of the team over the next several seasons to give him the level of clarity that he understandably desires at this stage of his career. Therefore, we close this chapter and reflect fondly on all that he has given to the team, organization and community. Billy will always have a place in the Thunder family.”

Dovovan himself didn’t say anything other than gracious platitudes but even that in itself is evidence that there was no beef spitting away on the barbecue there. Everyone’s mates. Adrian Wojnarowski described negotiations as: “collaborative and realistic”. It’s just that team and coach have different priorities. To put it in plain old Englandish: Billy Donovan didn’t wanna hang around for a rebuild.

Meaning that a rebuild is on the cards, a fact that goes down like rotten sauerkraut coming so soon after the Thunder pushed the Rockets all the way in that playoff series but realistically this was always gonna happen. It’s credit to Sam Presti that he let this incarnation of the team play it out but it’s not like he and his front office didn’t try to shop Chris Paul around at first, it’s not like they didn’t listen to offers for Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams, or Dennis Schröder. Right now their two best players are Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and there’s a 13 year age gap between the two while Dan Gallinari is coming off the books as a free agent. Adams and Schröder are both entering the last year of their contracts. Chris Paul still has two years of $40m+ salaries but that’s one year less than it was twelve months ago and after the season he just had there are plenty of teams that’d be interested in two years of his services.

None of this is unexpected, none of this is shocking. Billy Donovan probably had a decent idea of where all this would end up the whole way through the season. One of the benefits of this impending/ongoing rebuild is that they don’t have to bottom out or anything. They already have a lovely group of young players starting with SGA while Lu Dort and Darius Bazley both gave them genuine playoff rotation minutes. Plus their large cache of draft picks – of which there are no first rounders in 2020 but after this they have 13 first rounders over the next six years – are mostly picks they’ve traded for and which therefore aren’t tied to their own performance. They can try be good and still get a few lottery picks (most of them are also from current playoff teams... yet OKC know as well as anyone how quick those fates can change). But, yeah, the timelines still have to match… and a 13 year age gap between starting guards is not matching, that’s for sure.

Sam Presti’s made a habit of tinkering with his rosters and extracting value from the trade market. Safe to say the trade value for guys like Paul and Schröder is at a peak right now. Listen to what Chris Paul has to say in his emotional thank you message to the OKC organisation and fans and ponder if this sounds like a man who expects to be back next season...

The first domino had already fallen with Dan Gallinari’s free agency and while they might have been able to convince him to come back if everything else was nice and stable, the departure of Billy Donovan is the crucial second domino that means we’re now embarking on a chain of reaction and not just isolated incidents. The next logical step is to get Chris Paul’s contract as far away as possible because to be a small market team without realistic immediate championship aspirations paying overs for their roster in the aftermath of the financial effects of a global pandemic... that really doesn’t sound like the smartest position to be in if you can help it.

Okay I know what you’re thinking now... is Steven Adams gonna be traded? The answer to that is the same as for any player over the age of 25 on this roster and that’s: yes, if the offer is right. Adams, as mentioned, is coming into the final year of his contract and that’ll make anyone expendable. Kiwi Steve is a beloved dude in Thunder locker room who studies the game hard and has a knack for relaying that knowledge really well, all factors that make a person a great asset when surrounded by young players. But if the right offer comes in then nobody is expendable. Nothing will happen soon because teams are gonna be cautious until the post-covid salary cap details are all sorted though defs keep an eye on this situation… if they don’t wanna trade him then there’ll be an extension coming ASAP - very few starting level players escape the Thunder as free agents under Presti’s watchful eye.

His current contract is probably too expensive to make him a trade deadline acquisition for a contending team next season (which would be the coolest outcome) plus the value of traditional centres simply isn’t great these days. Having said that, any team that trades for him is a team that believes they can use him in their system so that could even be a positive compared to staying at the Thunder where he’s a steady 12p/10r kinda guy. The Boston Celtics have been mentioned in the past. The Dallas Mavericks would also be a great fit. Maybe the San Antonio Spurs. Not really very many competitive teams you could picture him at though. Poooossibly the the Lakers or Clippers?

Don’t get too upset because Steven Adams is not the first chap they’d be trying to move. Chris Paul is the one weighing them down financially, and so long as he’s healthy he’s got immense value to offer to many teams out there including several contenders – Philly springs to mind immediately while Milwaukee could do great things with him as could the Lakers if they could somehow afford him (not a lot of trade bait on the Lakers since they already used it all to get Anthony Davis). And Dennis Schröder would be a great addition to most playoff benches as a guy who can offer instant offence coming off his best season as a pro and entering an expiring deal. They’ve also already got more than $30m cleared up by Gallinari and Andre Roberson’s free agency so it’s not like they have to clear the decks or anything.

Really, they don’t have to do anything. If Chris Paul remains an OKC player then they’d be all goods to run it back and try go one win better than last time in round one. Might even get Gallo back on a short term deal. Add in some growth from the young fellas and who knows. But that’s head in the clouds stuff – if Billy Donovan doesn’t wanna continue with this rebuilding process then you can bet your arse that Chris Paul doesn’t either... and once CP3 goes, the rebuild officially begins.

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