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Kiwi Steve in the NBA #6: Defensive Anchorship


Know Your Role

What exactly is Steven Adams’ role for the Pelicans these days? It’s a simple question to answer: he defends hard, he does the dirty work, he sets the cultural tone. But when his box score numbers seem to swing drastically from one night to the next that answer suddenly doesn’t quite seem sufficient. Like, prior to the Knicks loss he had as many scoreless games in his previous ten as he had double-figures scores. The minutes can fluctuate plenty. - usually depending on whether or not it’s worth him playing in the fourth quarter of games either for matchup reasons or because the game’s a blowout. There’s definitely a fair bit of criticism that comes his way from the Pelican fans. It’s a confusing one to get a grip on.

Adams was specifically brought in to help this team find a defensive balance which so far has mostly escaped them. However the wolves that were circling around the house earlier in the season have sulked off elsewhere since the PowerPoint Zion project began, the utter insanity of Zion Williamson’s unstoppable scoring efficiency as a ball-handler solves the toughest quest of any rebuild: finding the centrepiece. With all the evidence anyone needs as to how good ZW is and can be, it’s not just a matter of setting the table around him. But that’s easier said than done and Steven Adams is far from immune in that process.

On the one hand it ends the silliness about Zion Williamson as a centre, keeping him from stepping on Steven Adams’ toes. On the other hand it changes the structure of the offence and leaves Steven Adams kinda vulnerable. His screen setting isn’t as prominent when a bulldozer like Zion is carrying the orb. Lonzo Ball and his refined shooting action makes for a good example of someone who has stepped up to show their worth alongside PP Zion. Eric Bledsoe is an example of the opposite. Steven Adams... the jury is still out on him.

Last time we looked at some of Adams’ stat comparisons before and after PowerPoint Zion. That feels a bit misleading now though. Obviously they’ve sunk a bit but there have been injuries (including to himself) that have affected rotations, the re-emergence of Jaxson Hayes as a factor has cut into his minutes, and of course there’s that whole thing about how Adams doesn’t chase stats instead influencing games in subtler ways where others get the glory.

So here’s a look at some team numbers while Adams is on the floor, split between the first 16 games and those since (all stats in terms of per 100 possessions)...

Pre-PPZ: 110.9 PTS | 48.2 FG% | 36.7 3PT% | 49.9 REB (12.4 OFF) | 23.5 AST | 15.8 TOV | +1.2 +/-

Post PPZ: 117.2 PTS | 49.8 FG% | 37.5 3P% | 46.4 REB (11.8 OFF) | 27.6 AST | 13.8 TOV | -1.8 +/-

The three-point percentage is funky because for one thing that Pre-PPZ mark was easily the best on the entire Pelicans roster. Another dagger in the heart of the ‘Steven Adams Hurts The Spacing’ argument. But while it’s crept up a tad in the PowerPoint days, others have also caught up. In fact Brandon Ingram has snuck in front of him on the Post-PPZ figures with fellow starters Ball and Bledsoe not too far behind (case in point: Pre-PPZ they were shooting a rotten 29.7% from deep with Adams off the court, since then it’s up to a much more respectable 34.3%). Still, that’s a pretty handy feather in his cap.

Granted the triples go the other way too and over the course of the season teams have shot 40.7% from deep with Adams out there. Not exactly breaking news that the Pels get munted at the three-point line but Adams’ defence seems to be more compromised than most by that. The other stats are pretty steady, rebounds dip a little but maybe that’s because they’re missing fewer shots. But despite a big rise in points/100poss, the net plus/minus as dropped by three points. The increase in offence isn’t offsetting their dead average defence. Safe to say that’s a bit of an issue.

However...

Not too many folks have been able to do that to Joel Embiid this season. He shot 3/11 when specifically guarded by Adams, good for only 27.3% when he’s shooting 52% overall this season. Aron Baynes is the only defender that Embiid has attempted more than five field goals whilst being guarded by who’s forced him into a lower FG% (6/26 for 23.1% across two games). Must be a born in New Zealand thing?

The Pelicans won that game by seven points despite being without Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart. That’s one of the best wins on their entire record and a major part of it was having someone who can hang with a dominant opposition big man. On the whole Adams is averaging a shade under 27 minutes per game in the PPZ era but five of his six biggest minutes totals have come in that time too. Doesn’t happen often but when it does there tends to be a clear matchup reason for it. Those five games: Denver x2, Milwaukee, Orlando & Portland. Adams didn’t score more than 8 points in any of them but that wasn’t the point. The point was Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo. With a little bit of Enes Kanter. (That Orlando game was after the Nikola Vucevic trade in a game when Zion Williamson was injured so shrug it off... also it went to overtime).

Nikola Jokic is the player that Adams has spent the most time guarding overall this season. 72.3 partial possessions across two games in which Jokic shot 19/32 while directly up against Adams... which sounds bloody average until you realise how much worse it would have been with Jaxson Hayes or Zion Williamson or whoever taking the gig. It’s one of those ones where you’re going to get beat, just a matter of damage limitation. Those are the fine margins you want Adams for.

Speaking of limitation, the next most popular target has been Enes Kanter. Old mate. The Stache Bro... who has attempted just four shots in 58.1 partial possessions up against Adams. Now it doesn’t take a genius to realise you’d rather have Dame Lillard or CJ McCollum shooting than Enes Kanter but the fact he’s gotten up next to nothing shows that Stevie knows what he’s doing. Rudy Gobert is another one he’s managed to do a really solid job against. Not because disrupts his shots, Adams isn’t much of a shot blocker at the best of times, more because of that story he told Zach Lowe once about how earlier in his career he got excited when he started to see his block numbers go. If the blocks were dropping, it meant he was doing better in preventing shots altogether. In the long run that’s the more successful strategy. And since there was a Giannis mention earlier...

Partial possessions defending Antetokounmpo: 54.3

Partial possessions defending Brook Lopez: 11.8

It’s not a fun proposition going head to head with the two-time reigning MVP but hey someone’s gotta do it. Unfortunately both Embiid and Antetokounmpo are Eastern Conference heroes so he won’t see them in the playoffs. To be honest it’s unlikely the Pels make the playoffs anyway. Yet they are still in the mix for that play-in game, where guys like Jonas Valanciunas, Enes Kanter or Kristaps Porzingis could be on the cards. With a date against Anthony Davis if that all works out.

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Josh Hart: Rebounding Bench King

There are some big name young players on the Pelicans roster who get plenty of focus and coverage. There are also, like most teams, a heap of players who don’t fit into the typical media ongoing narratives and therefore don’t get the credit they deserve. Which is a cool thing – everybody loves an underrated player, a well-kept secret to unleash upon opponents. These things go both ways.

Josh Hart is one of those dudes. He came over in the Anthony Davis trade with the Lakers but obviously Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball have always been the ones they all talk about. Hart wasn’t picked second overall like Lonzo was but he did get drafted late on in that same 2017 first round. 30th overall. Meaning that there’s a funky aspect to this where the Pelicans might well have to choose between Ball and Hart as they both hit restricted free agency in a few months, and it’s hard to imagine how they can afford to keep both given the interest there’ll be from other teams and how the Pels can only offer so much long-term cash knowing that Zion Williamson is gonna need a max contract in a couple years.

But Josh Hart, who is currently out with a torn UCL in his right thumb that required surgery, has been so good. 9.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, shooting 43.9% from the field playing mostly off the bench and it’s those rebounds that really stand out. Hart has multiple 15pts/15reb games as a sub this season, the lone bloke in the NBA you can say that about. Keep in mind that Josh Hart is listed as 6’5... the only players at that height who average as many boards as JH are Russell Westbrook and James Harden. The game he got injured in he had 17 boards (an OT win vs Orlando). Steven Adams has only topped that twice all season – 18 vs WAS and 20 vs MIL in consecutive games in late February. Considering all the yarns about Adams boxing out for Westbrook to hoover up all the boards, now he’s playing with one of the only other guards that size who can rebound at that rate... it’s a weird one.

Is there a connection? Or is it just a coincidence? Hart’s rebounding numbers are considerably higher this season, per 36 mins he’s leapt from 8.7 rebounds to 10.1 (having lingered at 5.2 his second and last year in LA, so tbf the bigger jump was him joining the Pels in the first place). We know full well that NOP rebound at a better rate when Adams is on the floor - whether he gets those boards or not. The rebounding rate rises 2.5% with Steve-o out there which makes sense for a dude who is beaten in box outs per game only by Bam Adebayo (4.5 vs 4.1). Interesting that his screen assists have dropped off heaps since PowerPoint Zion became a thing (4.5 per game pre-All Stars, only 3.6 since), which also makes sense given that you want to run those pick and rolls with a three point shooter. He still has his nights though...

Back to the topic at hand, Hart and Adams on the floor together (as has happened for eleven seconds short of 500 minutes so far) has allowed for the biggest jump in team rebounds per 100 possessions of any teammate Adams has shared the floor with for 75+ mins. Looking at Hart’s 17 boards against Orlando, 14 came with Adams on the court and only 3 happened with Adams resting on the bench. But only about half of those were gathered with Adams within range. The first of JH’s boards actually bounced off Steve-o’s fingers and into Hart’s grasp so that was a gift. Another they were both the only fellas in the vicinity and the ball fell on Hart’s side of the basket. There were one or two where Adams was actively blocking out. There was also one in overtime where Hart pretty much took it out of Adams’ hands Westbrook-style... but only one. Often it was a case of Adams closing out a shooter and Hart sweeping in behind for the seconds. We’ll call it an ongoing investigation and wait to see how it goes once Hart returns to fitness in a few weeks.


Los Minutos

These are the minutes breakdowns for Steven Adams over the last couple weeks. Note that he missed a game with a sore ankle after the Orlando game which would have been a factor in him not playin gat all in the next three fourth quarters. He also went into the concussion protocol after the Houston game, which he left early after taking a knock to the head. He had a little foul trouble early against Philly hence the early sub. Also note the two hefty Denver games as well as the Portland game, playing the entire third quarter of each. Screenshot from NBA Rotations.


Steven Adams vs Marcus Smart

You know it’s gonna be a bit of fun when a couple of personalities like these two get to clashing. Pelicans against the Celtics, amidst a big run from the home side that saw Boston claw from from 16 points down late fourth to almost get within touching distance of a comeback. But they couldn’t convert on a late inbounds play with Smarty upset that he didn’t get a call before the ball was put in play when Adams busted up his screen. He probably had a fair case, though you know he was gonna be playing for it. The Celtics comms team even seemed to reckon that might have been the purpose of the play design – to draw a foul on Adams and shoot a free throw without taking time off the clock.

But the foul was not called and Jayson Tatum went on to miss the shot at the rim. Marcus Smart was then ejected coming out of the next timeout as he argued his point a little too fervently. Tell you who loved that call? Steven Adams. Not usually one to engage in the trash talk (other than a couple of legendary examples) but he is one who pays close attention to refereeing calls and as Smart was T’d up you can see Steve-o pre-empting the call in the background, lol...

He then gave it a sneaky ejection punch though not sure Smarty even noticed. He was long gone. Pellies held on to win it in the end.

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BOX SCORES

vs DENVER NUGGETS (L 113-108):

41 MIN | 8 PTS (3/7 FG, 2/2 FT) | 4 REB (1 OFF) | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 1 TO | 1 PF

vs DALLAS MAVERICKS (W 112-103):

30 MIN | 4 PTS (2/2 FG) | 7 REB (3 OFF) | 1 AST | 1 STL | 4 BLK | 2 PF

at BOSTON CELTICS (W 115-109):

30 MIN | 4 PTS (2/2 FG, 0/4 FT) | 5 REB (1 OFF) | 1 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 1 TO | 3 PF

vs ORLANDO MAGIC (L 115-110 OT):

37 MIN | 8 PTS (4/8 FG) | 10 REB (3 OFF) | 3 AST | 2 TO | 3 PF

vs ATLANTA HAWKS (L 126-103):

DNP – SORE RIGHT ANKLE

at HOUSTON ROCKETS (W 122-115):

22 MIN | 12 PTS (5/9 FG, 2/6 FT) | 11 REB (7 OFF) | 3 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 1 TO | 3 PF

at ATLANTA HAWKS (L 123-107):

25 MIN | 6 PTS (2/6 FG, 2/4 FT) | 8 REB (6 OFF) | 1 AST | 3 STL | 2 TO | 1 PF

at BROOKLYN NETS (L 139-111):

20 MIN | 8 PTS (4/6 FG, 0/2 FT | 5 REB (4 OFF) | 1 AST | 1 TO | 1 PF

vs PHILADELPHIA 76ERS (W 101-94):

27 MIN | 7 PTS (3/5 FG, 1/4 FT) | 5 REB (2 OFF) | 1 AST | 3 STL | 3 BLK | 2 TO | 4 PF

at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (W 116-109):

27 MIN | 0 PT S(0/1 FG) | 8 REB (1 OFF) | 3 AST | 1 STL | 2 TO | 1 PF

vs SACRAMENTO KINGS (W 117-110):

27 MIN | 6 PTS (2/5 FG, 2/6 FT) | 16 REB (5 OFF) | 1 STL | 1 PF

vs NEW YORK KNICKS (L 116-106):

31 MIN | 10 PTS (5/7 FG) | 10 REB (3 OFF) | 3 AST | 1 PF


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