There is a possibility, something we need to at least consider, that perhaps maybe potentially we might have given the New Zealand Breakers too much credit. When they turned everything around so suddenly last season it was natural to feel as though the days of reactionary moves and unnecessary complications (and, above all, copious defeats) were behind us. Now here we are a couple months into another season and there have been a disturbing amount of things going on that simply aren’t conducive to winning basketball. Worse still, many of those things appear to be repeated patterns and mistakes that we thought this team had moved beyond.

It’s so strange. Especially since it was Mody Maor taking over as coach that helped spark so many of those positive changes and he’s still there doing the same stuff. So how else are we supposed to explain this awful 3-7 start to the season from a team fresh off a grand final appearance?

Well, first off we’ve gotta paint a picture. We’re currently in a pointless FIBA break, a week off for the NBL despite neither Australia nor New Zealand having international games. Emphasis on the break rather than the FIBA there, it seems. This moment finds us a little over a third of the way through the season, the Breakers having played 10/28 games (others have played more since they avoided the NBA preseason distractions)... and the Breaks are sitting second-to-last with only three wins. They’re only above the Illawarra Hawks on points differential after losing, at home, to the Hawks in their most recent game.

Offensively they’ve been okay but defensively they’ve been largely terrible compared to the high standards of last season. While they did get their first road win against Tasmania recently, the defeat to Illawarra that followed (in which they only scored 65 points against a team that averages an NBL-worst 92 points per game against) really hammered home the predicament. Six out of ten teams make the postseason in the NBL these days yet already the Breakers are in danger of missing that cut. They’ve dug a deep hole with all these early defeats and the pattern of win one, lose one is not going to get them out of it. They have the talent to peel of that necessary win streak but so far they’ve completely lacked anything close to the consistency required to do that.

These are not the traits you’d expect of a team that made the grand final series last season. Those stat profiles have a lot more in common with the version of the Breakers that had their worst ever season a year beforehand. It’s ridiculous. But it’s also not that hard to understand.

INJURIES ARE BRUTAL

If there’s one thing that still offers some benefit of the doubt to the Breakers organisation then it’s the injuries they’ve suffered. It’s not impossible to make a case that the whole drama of these ten games can be explained by the fact that they simply cannot put their best line-ups out on the floor. Only four players have appeared in all four games: Tom Abercrombie, Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Mangok Mathiang, and Izayah Le’Afa. PJC is the only one of them to have started every game... in fact they’ve used nine different starting fives in ten games. Eight different players have gotten starts. How are you supposed to win like that?

Some of that is down to shuffling for solutions amidst all the defeats but injuries have been the main catalyst. To be fair, this is something that affected them during the dud seasons as well. Some injuries are simply bad luck but to some degree the risks can be mitigated and back then it felt like Dan Shamir had a tendency to lean very hard on the top guys in his rotation for big minutes. That’s not so much of a deal with Coach Mody, who likes to keep a mean sixth and seventh man on the bench, but perhaps the trip to America two weeks into the season wasn’t such a good idea in this context (although injuries have been pestering them since preseason).

None of us are in a position to speculate on these things so let’s stick to the facts. Justinian Jessup, one of their three imports, suffered a stress fracture to his hip after only two games. He was ruled out indefinitely with no guarantee he’ll be back this season so the team moved quickly to pick up Anthony Lamb while they were in the USA. Soon after that another import got injured. Zylan Cheatham, who’d started at both power forward and centre, suffered a foot fracture which is expected to cost him two months of action (we’ll be halfway through that period when the Breakers next play). There was talk of signing a replacement but eventually they opted against that. To make matters worse, now Aussie point guard Will McDowell-White has a fracture in his leg which will also mean around six weeks on the sideline. Their Lithuanian Next Star Mantas Rubstavicius has only played half the games after also missing preseason with a groin injury. Finn Delany also battled through an injury earlier, though the NBA trip meant he only missed one league game.

This kinda thing just wrecks a team. You’ve got to replace a whole lot of production and you’ve got to also find positional replacements. It alters combinations and changes the look and flow at both ends of the court. At least Lamb does give them an upgrade on Jessup, but Cheatham’s absence means they’re playing with one less import (an import who was showing flashes of being one of the best in the comp) while McDowell-White’s absence is going to be scary considering his unselfishness as a facilitator amongst a bunch of fellas who are otherwise better scorers than passers.

Of course, other teams have had injuries too. Melbourne United have had heaps of them yet have been able to boss through it with the best defence in the competition thanks to the depth in their squad. A huge factor in that: ex-Breaker Rob Loe. The word was that the Breakers lowballed him with their contract offer and that Loe, who didn’t want to live in Australia, therefore chose to retire. In fairness to the Breakers he wasn’t playing big enough minutes to justify a bigger contract. He logged 378 mins last season putting him tenth on the NZB roster. He probably should have gotten a much larger role but it is what it is.

However Loe then got an offer he couldn’t refuse when Melly Utd scooped him up as a designated injury replacement guy while Jo Lual-Acuil was out. A short term deal. Make some coin then back to Tamaki Makaurau. Loe turned up and was brilliant, fitting into the culture beautifully and delivering what might’ve been the best sustained stretch of defensive basketball in his career (the context of the team around him helps too) – although his shooting touch hasn’t been anywhere near what it was last term.

Rob Loe NBL23 (NZB):

12.2 MIN | 5.6 PTS (54.1 FG%, 43.2 3P%) | 3.7 REB | 0.4 AST | 0.3 BLK | 123.1 ORtg | 103.2 DRtg

Rob Loe NBL24 (MEL):

15 MIN | 5.5 PTS (39.5 FG%, 31.3 3P%) | 4.5 REB | 1.8 AST | 0.6 BLK | 103.9 ORtg | 98.7 ORtg

His role diminished when JLA returned but other injuries meant he stuck around a bit longer than initially intended. That stint is now over (though the door is still open if there’s another long-ish term injury) but the fact remains that the 2023 NZ NBL MVP was superb for a United team that kept on winning despite its overworked medical staff. Given the patchwork frontcourt that the Breakers are working with, to see a guy they effectively allowed to walk out there delivering the goods for a championship contender has to seriously sting.

Also delivering a few huge bench performances in recent weeks was Flynn Cameron, who was the number one kiwi pro prospect coming out of the American college system this past offseason and just like all the other guys in that category in recent years (Sam Waardenburg, Yanni Wetzell, etc.) he chose an Australian team rather than the Breakers as his entry to the professional ranks.

TALENT > FIT RECRUITMENT

That’s where we get to this idea. Because while the injuries can be classed as unlucky, the consequences of those injuries have clearly been exacerbated by the roster that they’ve put together. McDowell-White is a loss because there’s no other pass-first creator in this team. Cheatham’s absence is critical because he was already being asked to play out of position as a centre (he’s listed as 203cm/6’8 by the Breakers) in order to carry a retooled frontcourt that doesn’t match up to what the team was working with on their finals run last time.

That NBL23 squad was built upon a tremendous synergy that began with their import trio. Barry Brown as the speedy scoring guard, equally effective as a starter or off the bench. Jarrell Brantley as a three-level scorer who very quickly signed an NBA 10-day contract after the NBL term. Dererk Pardon as the lynchpin centre, slightly undersized but making up for that with his strength and wicked footwork, who was robbed for the Defensive Player of the Year trophy. All three perfectly fitted the vision of Coach Mody. They instigated a defensive-minded team that revelled in doing the one-percenters.

There was reported interest in bringing all three back but of course the Breakers haven’t retained an import for a second season since Cedric Jackson so that wasn’t gonna happen. At least this time it was because they priced themselves out of range with great performances rather then being unwanted. They left on great terms. Which is why it was so odd that the team’s media took perceived shots at Pardon with the signing of Aussie/South Sudanese big man Mangok Mathiang. The whole “better than Pardon” thing was probably bad wording more than malicious intent... but let’s just say that ten games into the season things ain’t looking so good on that count.

Mathiang is an old-fashioned centre. He’s huge and rebounds, plus can finish at the rim... but is limited in other ways. It’s a very different tactical approach. Mathiang is defensively good in the paint but doesn’t have the movement to guard guys beyond it (as Pardon did). His foul count is high, 2.9 per game in only 18 minutes and although he does still own the best defensive rating on the team (111), he’s a long way from the DPOY candidate that his coach introduced him as. Also that defensive impact is more than mitigated by his averaging less than five points per game and kinda cratering his team’s scoring. His backup is Australian journeyman Dane Pineau who is buried near the bottom of the rotation. They completely changed the frontcourt contingent, in terms of personnel and also style, and have made it worse in the process. Why they would chose to do so after the previous formula worked so bloody well is anyone’s guess.

You know what else they did? They signed Finn Delany. A fantastic addition... except that Delany and Cheatham play in the same position. Both are at their best as power forwards and have had to do some centre duties as a result. Delany also had to play a couple games off the bench prior to Cheatham’s injury. Similar deal with Parker Jackson-Cartwright who is a ball handling point guard same as Will McDowell-White. Barry Brown was also that, to an extent, but could still be similarly effective off the ball (or off the bench). WMW’s injury is rough but it oughta be said that he wasn’t playing great before it. The instigator of the offence has the worst offensive rating on the team (89). He’s shooting 38/30/71 splits. Still hauling in the assists... but not as many as PJC has been getting. There’s only one ball, right?

Last season’s rotation had defined roles for everyone. They all knew what was required of them and then went out and did those things. This season... they’ve gone back to what they used to do by signing the best available players and then assuming they can figure the jigsaw puzzle out afterwards. Like those other seasons they’ve not been able to finish that puzzle. It’s talent over fit. That tendency has expressed itself in other ways too...

Anthony Lamb has been really good for the Breakers. He’s a fantastic basketball player, so that makes sense. He’s actually so good that he was a rotation player for the Golden State Warriors last year. The sexual assault claim against him was never brought to a charge, he was only mentioned as an aside in a civil lawsuit against the university, but do you reckon it’s a coincidence that this comes out and then a 25 year old who’d been playing 19 minutes per game with very good shooting numbers for a playoff team would be out of the league entirely by the very next season? Those NBA teams do their due diligence. It can’t have been basketball reasons that iced the bloke. But that’s no issue for the Bank of New Zealand Breakers, right?

And, as expected, there’s been almost zero backlash over this move because the local media only ever offers a cursory glance towards the Breakers and the Aussie NBL media is extremely in-house and cosy so they don’t criticise what they’re trying to promote. It’s sad. But it’s no surprise.

THE NBA EXCURSION

This isn’t a huge deal but getting back on the NBA vs NBL bandwagon was just dumb. The Breakers were two weeks into their campaign when they dropped everything to fly to America and lose to a couple of bang-average American teams. They were unlucky to catch the Portland Trail Blazers right after the Damian Lillard trade but yeah nah the Blazers and the Utah Jazz are both 4-11 to begin their NBA stuff. Then again, even if they’d met playoff calibre teams with future Hall of Famers then they’d still have only met them in preseason mode.

Like, seriously, what does anyone achieve from these games? The NBL is one of the stronger leagues in the world full of international calibre players. Many of them have done NBA Summer Leagues before, some have even played NBA proper. It’s super condescending to chalk it up as a great experience to play against the best in the world when, a) the Jazz and Blazers do not represent that, and b) Izayah Le’Afa and Finn Delany played the USA at the World Cup. This isn’t kids meeting their heroes. It’s professional basketballers against better professional basketballers.

To disrupt the season like that, missing two weeks and therefore adding more double-header rounds to their fixture list in order to make it up... dunno about that, man. Nobody really cares about exhibition games so any commercial benefits are negligible (if they were hosting NBA teams then okay different story). To make matters worse, they didn’t even broadcast the first game on NZ television. What was the actual point?

DIMINISHING AOTEAROA MANA

It’s been a valid criticism in recent years that the Breakers have ignored local talent but they did make a big point of finally filling out their development player spots with kiwis for this season. Beautiful stuff... although be aware that the Breakers don’t really use those depth players. They’re effectively training guys. They also didn’t really use rostered fellas like Dan Fotu or Sam Timmins last year... and you can bet that Rob Loe’s retirement was an easier decision given how the Breaks were only giving him limited minutes. It looks awesome when they’re signing blokes out of the NZ NBL but in reality it’s slim pickings on the player side of the development player concept.

Here’s how things tracked last season for the local lads...

1. Izaya Le’Afa – 957 mins (4th on the team)

2. Tom Abercrombie – 646 mins (6th)

3. Tom Vodanovich – 419 mins (8th)

4. Rob Loe – 378 mins (10th)

5. Alex McNaught – 57 mins (11th)

6. Dan Fotu – 38 mins (12th)

7. Sam Timmins – 35 mins (13th)

8. Jayden Bezzant – 7 mins (15th)

Here’s how things are tracking 10 games into NBL24...

1. Finn Delany – 238 mins (3rd)

2. Izaya Le’Afa – 234 mins (4th)

3. Tom Abercrombie – 221 mins (5th)

4. Dan Fotu – 27 seconds (14th)

5. Alex McNaught – 18 seconds (15th)

6. Dom Kelman-Poto, Carlin Davison, Max Darling - N/A

Even in the NBA exhibitions there wasn’t much room for the depth kiwis. Against Portland we got 23 minutes for Le’Afa, 18 minutes for Fotu, 16 for Abercrombie, and 4 for McNaught. Against the Jazz there were 27 mins for Le’Afa, 24 for Abercrombie, 3 for Fotu, and 1 each for McNaught and Kelman-Poto. Finn Delany sat out both games as an injury precaution. No sign of Carlin Davison or Max Darling.

There’s absolutely no obligation for the Breakers to sign or play New Zealanders. But it would be preferable given how they’re the only fully professional team in the country and all. At a time when the Wellington Phoenix and NZ Warriors are leaning on their academies more than ever, and being successful for it, the Breakers are seemingly only offering surface level growth for local players. Even the three that are in the main rotation: Delany and Abercrombie have never played for another NBL franchise and were inherited by the current ownership regime (Delany did leave to play in Germany last season) while Le’Afa made his name at South East Melbourne before the Breakers brought him back. They didn’t sign Yanni Wetzell until after he’d impressed for another team. In half a decade this regime has not developed a single local rotation player.

Another factor in last season’s excellence was how much Mody Maor emphasised the kiwi values that he wanted his team to represent. Not just the locals but the imports too. We all know what he’s talking about there. Hard-work, humility, selflessness, etc. And it worked. It gave them a genuine edge, especially after several years in which the organisation seemed to be flirting more with American audiences/culture than its own. Now they’re straying away from that again and guess what? They’re losing.

CERTAIN OTHER STUFF

In these difficult global times it would be remiss not to admit that there’s a strong Israeli connection at the Breakers through their coaching staff. And a strong American connection through their ownership and those are often the same thing. Needless to say, that’s rather awkward right now for obvious reasons.

Several weeks ago, NZB did what all sports organisations seem to feel they need in this modern era and put out a statement addressing a societal issue that has nothing to do with their industry/product. In this case we’re talking about the tragic losses of life due to the conflict in the Middle East. It was interesting to see that, around the same time, the English Premier League was reportedly under a lot of pressure from various groups to make a statement of their own. This is the surprisingly commendable outcome that they ended up with...

The Premier League is shocked and saddened by the escalating crisis in Israel and Gaza, and strongly condemns the horrific and brutal acts of violence against innocent civilians. We hope for peace, and our heartfelt sympathies are with the victims, their families and the communities impacted.

The Breakers were not under the same pressure but piped up anyway and unsurprisingly theirs stuck very much to one side of the fence...

The NZ Breakers are deeply saddened and mourn the senseless loss of life as a result of the terrorist attacks in Israel by Hamas. The NZ Breakers stand with the people of Israel.

But let us step no further into that murky territory. The Niche Cache is for peace.

DEFENCE

There was nothing this team prided itself on more last season than its stifling defence. There is nothing that has fallen off further this season than its defence. They haven’t found a balance. They signed an import point guard who is less than six feet tall. Their big man rotation has been all over the shop. And if you look at how this team was abysmal, then brilliant, and is now quite bad again... you’ll find that there’s a direct correlation to its defensive records.

Opponent Stats vs NZ Breakers In Last Three Seasons

The bracket numbers are the league ranks out of ten teams. One is best. Ten is worst. Might just also add that the Breakers are averaging 29.7 rebounds per game this season. That’s last by an enormous margin – we’re talking about a difference of 5.1 boards between the Breakers and the next worse, while there’s only a gap of 5.6 between first and ninth.

That’s a lot of words already so let’s leave it with the note that they could get better. They have a great coach and plenty of ability in that squad. Maybe they’ll figure something out. But from what we’ve seen so far you’d be safest not to bet on it. It’s really just a massive shame that they found the working formula and then at the first opportunity decided to stray from it. They’re having a Back to the Future themed game-night at Spark Arena soon. They’ve managed to land that one right on the nose, haven’t they?

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