The whole Next Star journey has been a strange one for the Breakers but as their latest foreign prospect officially declares for the NBA Draft it seems as though they’ve finally figured it out. It took a couple of swings but in Rayan Rupert they found a bloke who struck that balance between boosting his own career prospects and also chipping in for the overall team cause in an unselfish way. What do ya know, the Breakers then went on to make the NBL Finals and now Rupert is a sure bet to be picked in the first round of the draft. Everybody wins!

That’s not an easy balance to achieve. The Next Star system was brought in five years ago because it offers a financial and marketing boost to the league, not because it’s attracting premium win-now players. Let’s be honest about that. Those Next Stars will likely go on to become better players... but they won’t be playing NBL when they do – the NBL is getting them at their rawest and most unpolished. It’s a short term gig meant for hype and exposure and league intentions were clear in that first season when they made such a fuss about viewership numbers when RJ Hampton and LaMelo Ball went head to head. The main purpose of the programme is commercial.

Okay, fine. League’s gotta eat too, and they tastily incentivised things for teams by allowing those guys to occupy a bonus spot on the roster. Effectively you get an extra import player for nothing... they just have to be NBA Draft eligible is all. A smartly run organisation is going to do a lot with that opportunity. Needless to say, the Breakers were all over it from the get-go, always thirsty for that global exposure.

Thus we’ve gone from RJ Hampton to Ousmane Dieng and Hugo Besson to Rayan Rupert. The original three all graduated to be selected in the NBA Draft, with Rupert soon to make it 4/4, but it’s taken a couple of swings to get it right for all parties. Fair play though, with each of those swings they’ve made corrections. Sorta like the whole trip of this ownership, really, as they came in and dismantled a good thing only to slowly build it back up again via the lessons learned along the way. Wasn’t always pretty, at times it was downright ugly, but they’re good again now. That’s the important thing.

The RJ Hampton experience was an odd one. Signed under maximum hype, announcing his move live on the ESPN morning show, he arrived with chat about high-end draft selection. Top five pick, they reckoned. Except he never really got going on the court with the Breakers, insider access articles seemed to portray him as entirely miserable throughout, then he left months early due to a minor injury and an intention to ‘prepare for the draft’... where he dropped all the way down to number 24 overall. Hampton’s had some sweet NBA moments since then yet has struggled to find a sturdy home for his talents, traded from the Nuggets to the Magic in his rookie season, then waived by the Magic in year three before signing with the Pistons where he’s currently under contract.

Two things about the RJ Hampton Next Star experience that the Breakers have not since repeated:

1. They’ve not sought out another American player, instead focusing on Europeans (specifically three Frenchmen)

2. They’ve not signed another NS point guard, instead pivoting to three wing players who have less of a ball-handling presence meaning simpler roles with less pressure and more immediate positive impact

Matt Walsh to 1News: “I think we've found the winning formula, the best kind of position is either a three (small-forward), four-five (power forward/centre). We haven't had a four-five yet, but having a guy where the ball has to be in their hands so much, it's just too much pressure for an 18 or 19-year-old, so I think we've found the sweet spot.”

Hampton was followed by an off-year as covid restrictions made it unfeasible to chase a Next Star but Owner/CEO Matt Walsh clearly adores the programme so get used to seeing more and more of these lads. A couple years ago that would’ve sounded very counter-productive in the wake of Hampton’s messiness. These days... not so much, thanks to Rayan Rupert’s prominence. Although credit to Ousmane Dieng and Hugo Besson who definitely helped bridged the gap (Besson wasn’t technically a NS because Dieng already had the position but despite signing him as an import he was effectively there to fill the a dual role).

The thing that sets Rupert apart from the rest of them is that despite being a young player he could still defend. In fact he’s a really good defender. Some lapses within the system at times, as you’d expect with his inexperience, but get him in a 1v1 match-up and he was fantastic. Long arms, really athletic. For a Breakers team under Mody Maor that really made an emphasis of their defensive foundations it’s a huge credit to Rupert that he was able to hang about and get big minutes within that scheme.

There was the hand injury in the mid-season which ruled him out for an extended period of time and kept him from being able to find what his coach called the Next Star Bounce – aka that point where, with repeated games, the prospect finds their comfort level and becomes a more influential player. But RR kinda didn’t need it because he was already decent from the outset. On top of his defensive mahi, he also has a half-decent jump shot (albeit still a very inconsistent one) and can attack off the dribble. Whereas Hampton used an injury as an excuse to gap it the hell outta Aotearoa, Rupert stuck around and worked hard in the gym, making as much of that time as he could. A massive green tick in the Rayan Rupert professionalism box.

He was then able to return an improved player and had some great moments down the stretch as the Breakers nudged their way into the playoffs. He was superb in game one of the semis against Tasmania with 14p/5r/2a/2s although naturally his minutes did shrink as the postseason went deeper and he wasn’t really much of a factor in the finals, Coach Maor leaning more and more on his top six or seven options in that match-up against the Sydney Kings (with RR only getting five combined minutes across games four and five).

That’s to be expected. Even with the right attitude and a more complementary role, the fact is that a teenager playing against experienced pros is usually going to have troubles, particularly against the best teams. Funky thing is, Rupert’s numbers mostly weren’t any better than the Next Stars that came before him. The eye test was a different matter (as was the calibre of the rosters around them) and that’s not to be shrugged off. It’s clearly preferable to be below average on a good team than below average on a bad team. But have a look at a few of the numbers anyway...

(As always, most of these stats come courtesy of the outstanding SpatialJam.com)

Quite a few things stand out there. One is that Rupert played the most games of any of them (thanks in large part to a playoffs run which none of the other three experienced). Another is that despite getting the most games he also averaged the fewest minutes per game. Rupert did make 18 starts across his 28 games so that’s another positive. That includes 5/8 playoff starts. He therefore earned a lot of good minutes alongside the top guys in the squad and there were definitely games where he was given a longer leash than others – five of his six biggest minutes tallies came in games against the three bottom teams.

Rupert’s shooting numbers were as bad as any of them, which does come as a bit of a surprise. Probably a lot to do with breaking the wrist of his shooting had, though he did make incremental improvements as the season progressed so the bloke we see in the overall numbers isn’t necessarily the bloke we saw towards the end of it. Rupert only made four of his first 20 three-point attempts (20%)... then made 8/28 across the rest of the regular season (28.5%). Of course he stuttered with 3/16 from deep in the playoffs (18.8%). Certainly not what was anticipated after he made 10/16 in the preseason NBL Blitz.

Those overall shooting numbers suck therefore his Offensive Rating wasn’t up to much either. Ah but that Defensive Rating... now we’re talking. Considerably better than any previous Breakers Next Star and therefore still giving him the best Net Rating of the quartet. That’s what allowed Rupert the room to stay on the court and figure some things out.

Then of course there’s the stat in which Rupert stands alone: wins. The other three fellas had nice moments, particularly offensively, they got decent minutes... but only Rupert’s work actually contributed towards victories. Those three combined didn’t win as many games as Rupert did last season.

You could make the argument that the Breakers won despite Rupert, with his Net Rating adding evidence to that claim, but that doesn’t feel fair to the lad. Not when he played nearly 500 minutes. Rupert clearly had his limitations yet you also don’t get that level of prominence for a title contender without doing something right. His defensive versatility and willingness to learn always caught the eye. Again: being below average on a good team is better than being below average on a bad team.

It’s easy to say that Rupert’s next step is to be drafted into the NBA... potentially as high as the lottery spots. The fit matters much more than how early you get selected with these things so just gotta let it all unfold naturally. Nonetheless, it’ll be fascinating to see whether a prospect who actually contributed towards winning basketball will be more valued by NBA scouts than the high upside project players who didn’t. Honestly, it’s hard to know. But it’s pretty obvious that the NBA draft and the whole scouting industry that surrounds it is not the exact science that many seem to believe.

Also, very important note: the things that NBA Draft scouts look for in players are not the same things that NBL coaches should be looking for in players. Therefore draft status has no relation to on-court NBL success.

Basically all the coverage around Rupert is based within that scouting industry, speculating on his potential and what number he’ll be drafted at. This article, on the other hand, is looking way more at the specific window he spent with the Breakers... and it’s going to be very interesting to see what the next step is for them. Last season set the blueprint for Breakers success in so many ways and the Rayan Rupert thing was right up there amongst it. There’s no doubting that they’ll keep going down the Next Star path in perpetuity but is it possible to find a find a Rupert calibre personality/talent every year? Well... yeah, potentially. The world is huge and the Breakers now have a reputation. It will be a real test of their scouting abilities though.

On that note, big relief to see them back away from the LiAngelo Ball buzz. That rumour started because father LaVar was hanging around New Zealand (even taking in a Warriors game lol) and dropped some interest talking on Mai FM of all places. There were soon suggestions that both parties had mutual interest. Then suddenly the Breakers weren’t keen at all.

Strange scenario. Might be as simple as Matt Walsh was taking the piss with a few journos. Might be that they did some due diligence and ultimately backed off. LiAngelo’s been a non-factor playing G-League basketball and is already 24 years old. Couple that with the family sideshow and if they’d signed him it would have been such a depressing reversion to how this franchise were operating in the early days of this ownership. But they didn’t, so nothing to worry about. As you were.

Given that these Next Star players almost always have a heavily negative presence on the court, if it wasn’t for the free roster spot then it’d be hard to justify any serious team bothering with it despite the economic motivations. The free spot and the economics together though, they make it just about worthwhile. Previous Breakers efforts have had obvious excitement but tended to drag the team down. Rayan Rupert didn’t exactly lift them up but he did win a lot of basketball games during his NBL journey. That right there is your best case scenario, now we see if the Breakers can match it with the next fella.

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