The Luka Doncic to Los Angeles Lakers trade got the whole basketball world talking, it was one of the wildest most unexpected player transactions that the sport has ever witnessed. Flipping a 25-year-old MVP candidate for an injury-prone almost-32-year-old – who played three excellent quarters on debut for the Dallas Mavericks and is now expected to miss up to a month with injury (probably because that debut game involved going up against Steven Adams) – didn’t make much sense to anyone when it happened and it’s still baffling now. Sometimes the people who put professional sporting rosters together do very silly things.

On that note, let us talk about the New Zealand Breakers, who recently wrapped up their latest NBL campaign. It was a season that began with scepticism based on a roster full of project players and the rookie foreign head coach hired to whip them into shape. That risky roster also contained a distinct lack of kiwi players in its main rotation, another talking point that gained some volume. But despite an ugly preseason and despite being the only NBL franchise still bothering to waste a few weeks early in the season doing those NBA exhibitions, the early weeks of NBL25 were magnificent. Coach Petteri Koponen was working wonders with that squad. Thrilling wins away to Sydney Kings and Melbourne United highlighted a 7-3 start that had them top of the pops heading into the FIBA break. It was almost too good to be true. Then they signed Tacko Fall.

Prior to Tacko Fall, they were 7-3 and in first place. After Tacko Fall, they went 3-16 and finished in ninth. It’s likely that success of the first ten games was unsustainable but the way they completely crumbled from the very moment that they swapped Freddie Gillespie for Tacko Fall was astounding to behold. It was a downfall of biblical proportions. One gust of wind brought down the whole house. Tacko himself actually grew into a steadily reliable presence as the season wore on, particularly after he managed to find a decent level of fitness. Despite only playing around about 17 minutes per game, he averaged a noteworthy 10.8 points and 6.3 rebounds per night. He also shot 73% from the field which would be a mind-blowing mark if it weren’t for the fact that almost all of his shot attempts were dunks or lay-ups (he shot 51% from the free throw line so don’t ask about range). Tacko Fall did what was advertised: he dominated around the rim.

Unfortunately, that’s a very limited skill set to be filling one of the coveted import spots. Fall’s clumsy feet whenever he was asked to defend outside the paint were a liability from day one. He doesn’t step out, so open three-point shooters had a field day against the Breakers. He had nothing going in the pick-and-roll. Those reasons and more are why he wasn’t often able to give them 20+ minutes. However, the bigger issues with the Tacko Fall signing were the domino effects. Specifically that it cost them their best defender in Freddie Gillespie and also caused a complete reshuffle in team tactics in order to accommodate Tacko, despite the team having previously been winning games. They reinvented the wheel for no feasible reason.

The consequences of that were blatantly obvious as they ripped off an eight-game losing streak immediately after the Tacko Trade, during which the average margin of defeat was 19 points. The average margin. Seven of the 11 worst defensive ratings that the Breakers served up in games this season came during that eight-game stretch. They were atrociously bad... and even though they did get more competitive after those eight horrific games, they still only netted another three wins and two of those were against the last-placed Cairns Taipans.

The stats tell a picture of a team that wasn’t particularly good at anything. Not the worst team in the NBL, the Cairns Taipans take that cake, but there wasn’t much to hang a hat on. Occasionally they had games where things clicked, where individual performances from guys like Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Sam Mennenga, and others were able to get the motors going. Only occasionally, though. The weaknesses were too vast to consistently overcome – case and point: no team was outscored by more than the Breakers were in both first quarters and fourth quarters (although they were surprisingly great in third quarters, ranking second behind Illawarra Hawks).

NZ Breakers NBL25 Stat Profile

A few more stat trends...

• When the Breakers shot 38% or better from three-pointers, they were 6-1

• When the Breakers shot under 30% from threes, they were 1-11

• When the Breakers had at least 19 assists in a game, they were 8-2

• When the Breakers had less than 19 assists, they were 2-17

• When the Breakers scored at least 90 points they were 6-3

• When the Breakers scored less than 80 points they were 1-8

Now, those stats are kinda self-evident: doing good things equals winning, doing bad things equals losing. That’s why it’s the scope that’s really telling about those numbers. That they had 12 separate games shooting under 30% from deep, that they only reached 19 assists on 10/29 occasions, that they only scored 90+ points nine times and were held under 80 nine times. That speaks to a very disjointed team.

Another thing that screams dysfunction is the fact that three of the four imports they used had disciplinary issues. Freddie Gillespie headbutted a bro in preseason, causing him to miss the season-opener. There were whispers even then about him possibly being replaced and there’s every chance that that’s when the Tacko Fall seed first germinated, making FG’s excellent defensive work in the subsequent two months all too late.

Parker Jackson-Cartwright had the worst instance. He shoved over a referee in a brain-explosion whilst trying to fight Reuben Te Rangi (who is clearly out of his weight class). Heat of the moment. Competitive spirit. Whatever. There’s no excuse for shoving a ref to the ground and he was given five games on the sidelines as a result. The weirdest part is there didn’t seem to even be much contrition there. If anything, PJC has held a grudge against the league for his treatment ever since (putting his possible re-signing in jeopardy)... frankly, he’s lucky it wasn’t a worse punishment.

And then in what was perhaps a fitting finale to a very stupid season, Matt Mooney was benched at half-time after getting into a yelling match with Coach Kop on the benches. Less than ideal scenes. The only import who stayed on his best behaviour was our man Tacko Fall. Say what you will about the decision to sign him but you can’t deny that the bloke tried his hardest.

With that in mind, we might as well move past Tacko Fall. The specifics of that move were discussed in our last Breakers article (here’s that link again) and we know how it played out from there. The only thing left to consider is what happens next... because lost amongst the craziness is that the Breakers gave him a two-year contract. Do they stick with it next season and hope to build off whatever progress they may have made over the last two months of NBL25? Do they cut their losses and pay him out? Is there perhaps some merciful middle option, such as an option on his contract or an out clause that Tacko chooses to take up? Time will tell. The Breakers got themselves into this mess so they’ll just have to figure something out.

There’s much more novelty available in looking at the rest of the roster, starting with Coach Petteri Koponen. Hard not to feel sympathetic for a bloke who got dealt the hand he did. Difficult as it was to shape this wonky roster into something useful, he seemed to be doing exactly that until they swapped his centres and made him do it all over again. Koponen did find good (and selective) ways to use Tacko Fall. He did keep his team motivated long after their hopes of achieving anything had faded. His handling of the Matt Mooney stuff showed a hard-edge that belies his limited head coaching experience. Plus he seemed to get good responses from the development players, handing out way more playing time than Mody Maor ever did for those blokes. Carlin Davison, Kaia Isaac, and Alex McNaught combined for 147 min as DPs in NBL25. Last year the DPs were Davison, McNaught, and Max Darling and they tallied a pitiful 4 (four) minutes between them. But despite some positives, the bottom line is that Coach Kop wasn’t able to transcend the squad that was handed to him. The Breakers went 10-19 and finished second-to-last.

It’s a sad state of affairs that Freddie Gillespie ended up as the only Breakers player with a positive on-court impact per-36 minutes. Aside from the retiring Dane Pineau... but that’s a stat doesn’t really apply to the limited minutes dudes so disregard the blokes at the bottom of the list in that column. Only Matt Mooney and Sam Mennenga played in all 29 games. They were also the two leaders for minutes played, understandably, with PJC coming in third (he probably lost about 160 minutes with the five-game suspension) and in fourth was Next Star baller Karim Lopez who doesn’t even turn 18 for two more months.

Unlike all the other Next Stars that the Breakers have had, Lopez will be coming back for a second season and based on what we saw from him here there’s every chance he could be commanding a regular starting spot when he does. Lopez had the ups and downs that we expect from young players but with his athleticism and attitude it’s pretty obvious that this lad has something special. The history of Breakers Next Stars after they join the NBA has been wild to say the least. Some good, some terrible. But Karim Lopez just played big minutes with per-36 averages of 15.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.0 steals. He had shooting splits of 46% from the field, 31% from deep, and 74% from the free throw line. He’s only going to get better from here.

Sam Mennenga was far and away the standout kiwi on the roster... yet it would not be unfair to say that he had his frustrations too. Mennenga, who immediately emerged as a leader in the squad despite it only being his second year in the pros, had games where he utterly bossed it and then games where he faded into the background. No player was more affected by the arrival of Tacko Fall and the subsequent tactical adjustments than Sam Mennega so gotta cut him some slack there. But he had five games scoring 22+ and also 12 games scoring in single-digits. Consistency is key and he never found it. Not with his own performances... and frankly not from those around him either. Mennenga is going to spend his offseason in Puerto Rico with Atleticos de San German, so he’s keeping himself busy.

Speaking of the kiwis, three of the top four players for three-point percentage on this team were New Zealanders. Admittedly that’s some small sample size stuff... but Kaia Isaac hit 5/11 for 45.5% in roughly 57 mins, Carlin Davison hit 3/7 for 42.9% in 71 mins, and most significantly Max Darling hit 17/48 for 35.4% in 347 mins. The fact that Darling was one of the team’s best 3P shooters at 35% speaks to a significant drama though: crap three-point shooting across the board. Each of the following blokes were under 31% despite taking a significant amount of attempts: Karim Lopez (20/65), Sam Mennenga (24/82), Jonah Bolden (22/81), Sean Bairstow (8/38), and Mitch McCarron (6/29).

Max Darling played one measly minute last season so to see him being offered and then earning a much more significant spot on the roster this time around was a beautiful thing. When they elevated him to a full roster spot, it kinda felt like a response to the criticism of their lack of NZ signings, and maybe it was, but full credit to Max Darling for commanding what he got. Although it still wasn’t enough to keep this Breakers incarnation from setting a new franchise record for the fewest minutes given to New Zealanders...

It would be remiss not to say that this lack of kiwis was a major point of contention, a shadow that followed them the entire way. Not only for the obvious reasons of Aotearoa fans wanting to see Aotearoa players but also because the Aussies they were signing in those local spots instead were so bloody underwhelming. The season’s over now so we can look back at this stuff with some context. How about this stat: excluding Tai Wynyard and Alex McNaught, who hardly played, the four lowest Offensive Ratings on the roster were: Mojave King (106.4), Jonah Bolden (106.2), Mitch McCarron (99.3), and Sean Bairstow (97.5). Bairstow and King were also in the bottom four for Defensive Ratings, although admittedly Bolden was one of the better dudes for that measurement (still had a -8.1 Net Rating though).

Those are the culprits, officer. Four Aussie lads that the Breakers signed as locals when they could have been signing New Zealanders instead and they only made the team worse. If you’re signing Matthew Dellavedova or Xavier Cooks ahead of a kiwi player then fine, no arguments. But this was not that.

Quick recognition for Grant Anticevich who did have some offensive potential and should arguably have been given a bigger role. Bolden was good defensively though could have been much more aggressive. King had his moments but they were far too scarce, only twice scoring in excess of 12 points. Bairstow and McCarron were offensive black holes. Dane Pineau only played 45 minutes in his final NBL season. It was dumb roster-building when it happened. It’s still dumb roster-building now. At least with the fringe kiwis you could trust they’d rip in... as we saw with Davison and Isaac when they were able to get on the court.

Oh no but it’s cool because nobody cares more about basketball in Aotearoa than the fella who put this squad together. You know, the one who doesn’t live in the country and whose attentions always seem to be more attuned to the NBA than the NBL.

Matt Walsh to Newstalk ZB: “I hear the fans, and nobody wants this team to be built around Kiwis more than me. Unfortunately, life and financial offers get in the way sometimes, but that’ll be our focus – trying to get a great Kiwi core”

There’s a saying about money and mouths... how does that go again?

Breakers Contracts For NBL26

• Contracted: Tacko Fall, Sam Mennenga, Karim Lopez, Mitch McCarron, Max Darling, Kaia Isaac, Alex McNaught

• Player/Team Options: Sean Bairstow, Carlin Davison

• Uncontracted: Parker Jackson-Cartright, Matt Mooney, Jonah Bolden, Mojave King, Grant Anticevich

• Retired: Dane Pineau

What’s especially annoying is that the Breakers did try to restore the so-called Kiwi Core in Mody Maor’s first season and they went all the way to the finals with it. Then they promptly pivoted in the other direction and you’ve seen how that went. Far too many team decisions seem to have been made with a priority of attracting overseas attention rather than a priority of winning games. Not just this year but throughout this ownership. But, hey, maybe next season will be different.

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