The Tall Blacks are probably not going to make the Olympics. Like, that’s just the fact of it. After losing to a significantly better Australian side last year, the NZ side now find themselves in a qualifying tournament in the Philippines in July. Cool man, sounds like fun. We’re in a group with France and the hosts, with Turkey, Senegal and Canada competing on the other side of things. Top two make the semis, then a final and the winner makes the Olympics. But… only the winner makes the Olympics. Considering some of the players that hail from those various other countries, the chances don’t look ideal.

Nonetheless, you don’t win the lottery if you don’t buy a ticket and the Tall Blacks, coached by Paul Henare, are charging head first into this competition just as they bloody well should. Nothing to lose, everything to gain.

Before they head to Manila for their first game of qualifying, they head to Asia for a few warm-up games with their recently-named 14 man squad before trimming that number to 12 and heading to Europe for a few more friendlies.

In Asia there’s a trip to Japan for two closed door games against their hosts, before an eight team competition in China where they’ll compete in a pool with Japan, Belarus and the Chinese B team. The other pool features select American and Lithuanian teams, as well as the Iranian and Macedonian national teams. A week after that ends they play both Iran and Latvia in Riga (the week in between spent in another training camp, also in Riga, Latvia). Then two games against Lithuania and another five day camp in preparation for the Olympic Qualifiers, this time in Manila. Fair to say that the team will be ready by the time they kick off their qualifying tournament against the Philippines on July 6.

Oh, that squad, you say? Well, friend, here it is in all its glory:

• Tom Abercrombie
• BJ Anthony
• Everard Bartlett
• Finn Delany
• Isaac Fotu
• Shea Ili
• Michael Karena
• Jarrod Kenny
•  Rob Loe
• Jordan Ngatai
• Ethan Rusbatch
• Mika Vukona
• Corey Webster
• Tai Webster

Yes, a couple of names that the casual fans won’t have heard of and a couple names they will know not there. We already knew that Steven Adams wasn’t going to be involved. The backlash to that only came from those too ingrained in NZ rugby culture, where the Black Jersey is the pinnacle of the sport, to realise that others do things in other ways and the NBA takes complete precedence over international stuff and Adams is doing more for kiwi basketball over there than he could elsewhere. One day he’ll be more established and he’ll have the choice, for now he owes the team that gave him his chance. Plus with the way he’s trucking in the playoffs, he might not have been available for a few more weeks anyway – the NBA Finals don’t finish until midway through the Chinese leg of the tour should he make it that far.

That was old news, the retirements of Kirk Penney and Lindsay Tait were new news. Both were hardly unexpected but they were confirmed in the week before the team was named. Big blows. Penney especially, he may not have been at his best during the FIBA World Champs in 2014 but his season for the Illawarra Hawks was superb and he would have been a key player. But then he also just moved back to the Breakers so that he could be closer to home. That mind-set doesn’t really flow with a potential three-plus months on the road (should we go all the way to the Olympics).

One of the sadder facts of Penney’s retirement is that it marks the final bow of the final remaining player of the 2002 FIBA World Champs squad. We’re officially into a new era now – Paul Henare and Pero Cameron are on the coaching staff now – and this squad really shows that. Look how young they are. Jarrod Kenny (30) and Mika Vukona (34) are the only players in the team in their 30s. Eight of the 14 are aged 24 or younger. Many of these young players are going to be the core of this national team for the next decade.

A lot of that was forced, but it isn’t a bad thing. Tai Wynyard was also unavailable as he plugs away with the University of Kentucky. That is one of the finest college basketball programmes in the world and you don’t take that for granted. Wynyard didn’t play a single minute this last season but remains committed to breaking through amidst the 2016 class of UK. As his coach John Calipari says, it hasn’t been easy, though he’s getting there.

So no Wynyard. There is also no Alex Pledger, Duane Bailey, Jack Salt or Leon Henry, all of them unavailable for selection, costing the Tall Blacks a lot of size. Dion Prewster was not considered either. Again, it’s a big commitment - a quarter of the year - for these guys so while some will have been injured, others simply might not have been all in. That’s fine, they’ve all got lives to live. As much as those guys will have been able to offer something unique to the squad, the players that were picked paint a pretty enough picture on their own.

Pledger will be the biggest loss because dudes of his size are tough to find. Having not really been 100% fit since before the 2014 World Champs, he’s chosen not to drive himself into the ground for the national team and instead take a few months off to get back to his peak before the Breakers crack into pre-season. That’s all fair enough.

Instead we’ll be looking at a team with only two recognised centres in Rob Loe and Michael Karena. Loe has been playing in Europe and there are whispers that he might be coming to the Breakers, Karena has been playing NBL with Canterbury after finishing up with Wright State Uni in Ohio. Neither are quite seven foot but they’re solid enough and have the potential to score enough to cover up the odd deficiency elsewhere. Karena was probably the most unexpected name – he is one of four guys in line for their first games with the Tall Blacks. Finn Delaney, Jordan Ngatai and Ethan Rusbatch the others.

Ngatai spent last season as a development player with the Breakers. Delaney and Shea Ili did also and those two were rewarded with full-time contracts with the Aussie NBL runners-up. Corey Webster, Tom Abercrombie and Mika Vukona are the other Breakers included and will make up the heart of this team – which should have plenty of physicality when you also add in the always-fun Isaac Fotu. Everard Bartlett doesn’t know if he’ll be back on the Breakers yet but he’ll bring some shooting off the bench here. Ili’s speed and energy the same. BJ Anthony is back in there and so is Corey’s younger bro Tai Webster, who has been doing fine things for Nebraska. He showed great potential at the Worlds two years ago and will have improved since then. Also included is Jarrod Kenny who won a contract with NBL champs the Perth Wildcats after impressing against Australia last year. All exciting stuff.

With the guys that are missing, the squad sort of picked itself. The two players most unlucky to miss out are Reuben Te Rangi and Marcel Jones. RTR has done well for NZ in the past, he shot like a champ in the games against Aussie, but his Breakers form last season was poor and the team, notably now coached by Paul Henare, chose to let him go to Brisbane. Doubt it’s a coincidence that he’s not in either of Henare’s squads now. As for Jones, he’s a naturalised citizen having been granted that in 2012. He pads the hell outta stats for the Canterbury Rams but at 30 maybe isn’t the answer going forward.

It isn’t the strongest side that we could have picked but it’s the strongest we had available. A starting five with the Webster Bros, Abercrombie, Fotu and Loe is going to do plenty of damage, though maybe you chuck Vukona in there for his more versatile defence. Hard to say. There is enough variety in the team that we don’t have to predict how they’ll line up, Coach Henare has plenty of time to figure that out based on whichever players thrive best in the environment. Don’t worry too much about all that yet. Don’t even worry if we start off poorly in those first friendly games – this is a long road to Rio.

Which is where we come to all these other teams scrapping for the same place. Frankly, you cannot criticise the Tall Blacks one bit for their ambition, just look at their preparation schedule. This team is going to give it all they can to get to the Olympics even if they’ve gotta do it without their only NBA player.

But don’t think for a minute that we’re underprivileged by Steven Adams not being there. This is where the path opens back up and you start to see the sun peeking through the clouds. Adams ruled himself out ages ago, he’s got bigger fish to fry. The French team, meanwhile, just had Nicolas Batum, Evan Fournier and Ian Mahinmi all ruled out. The three are impending free agents and an injury now could cost them millions of dollars. Rudy Gobert is not a free agent… but he is injured. He’ll be staying in Utah to rehab. Tony Parker said back in February that he’d play, though, while Boris Diaw and Alexis Ajinca are expected also. Plus a load of European-based talent.

As for Canada, another major rival here, they just found out that Kelly Olynyk of the Boston Celtics had shoulder surgery and won’t be playing internationally – despite assertions that he was more than keen to rep his homeland. There’s no doubt that they have the talent to take this tournament out and advance to Rio but it’s a matter of getting them to actually play. There’s something of a golden generation there but will Andrew Wiggins play? Will Tristan Thompson or Corey Joseph be available after deep NBA playoff runs? Or Tai Wynyard’s Uni of Kentucky teammate Jamal Murray, who is sure to be drafted into the NBA a few weeks before the Manila tournament begins – probably in the lottery places too.

The other team that NZ will play in their group is the Philippines. They may not sound like a team to fear but they will be. Not only as hosts, but also down to their coach… a certain Tab Baldwin. Master vs Apprentice when he and Henare go head to head. There are some quality players in there too: Jayson Castro and Terrence Romeo will be a handful, as will Andray Blatche, who played nine years in the NBA with the Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets and has played in China since 2014. At least LA Lakers guard Jordan Clarkson won’t be there.

Senegal (31) are the lowest ranked team there, while France (5) are the highest. Canada (26) and the Philippines (28) are sitting below New Zealand (21) while the other team there is Turkey. Turkey and New Zealand have a now famous basketball connection thanks to the Stache Brothers of Steven Adams and Enes Kanter. However with an eighth place world ranking, they are plenty more than one player and might even be favourite to take this lone Olympic place.

So, no, it will not be easy. It’s barely even fair. But it ain’t impossible so we’ll be with them all the way.