Last Week: 8-7

Season: 34-29

Arizona Cardinals (1-3) at San Francisco 49ers (1-3)

Now, last year this would have been a 50 point win to the Cardinals. In fact they did play last year and the Cardinals won 47-7 so I wasn’t far wrong there. Colin Kaepernick threw four interceptions, whoops. Including two first quarter pick-sixes, double whoops. Say, maybe that’s why he isn’t playing this season even though they’re running an offence full of disguised quarterback runs with Blaine Gabbert despite that kind of thing being exactly tailored to Kap’s particular abilities.

Forget the Niners though, they’re a forgettable team. This game is all about the 1-3 Cardinals who were poised to make a run at the title this season and instead it’s been all a shocker.

There will be no Carson Palmer here, he’s been ruled out after leaving the last game with a concussion and the short turnaround has done him no favours. Instead Drew Stanton gets to be the dude which is not exactly music to the ears of Cardinals fans…

But here’s the thing: the Cardinals need to start looking at their options. In 2014 Stanton went 5-3 when Palmer was out with his ACL injury so they’re not quite the Cowboys without Romo (although maybe that stink is over too). Stanton isn’t what you’d call a ‘good’ quarterback necessarily but one of their major issues has been their reliance on Carson Palmer’s big arm and playmaking. Well, after a career year last season he’s back now playing roughly like he did in Oakland. Not great.

All they had to do to beat the Rams was go through the motions. The Rams have a solid defence and Aaron Donald is a monster but a five turnover to one game is recipe for nothing but defeat. That it took a late Case Keenum TD pass to make the difference is only evidence that the Rams have Case Keenum at quarterback and not someone better. The Patriots or Steelers would’ve put six TDs past them with those same numbers. Stanton came in after that go-ahead touchdown and threw two interceptions so yeah.

Time now, as they say, for the rest of the team to stand up.

Oh and by the way NaVorro Bowman did his Achilles last week and so that’s him for the season. Expect this Niners defence to get a whole lot worse now – even if this was an injury waiting to happen.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 7

Houston Texans (3-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-0)

And with what they just did to Eli Manning and the Giants, the Vikings defence is now a legit thing that we all need to be worried about. As it turns out they always smash Eli but this was no one-off. They kept Odell Beckham Jr to a career low 23 yards on three catches. They’ve given up only 50 points in four games and the only team that can beat that is Philadelphia’s 27 in three games. But compare that the Eagles have come up against Robert Griffin III, Jay Cutler and Ben Roethlisberger against the Vikings and Marcus Mariota, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and Eli Manning. Each has a clear weak spot, the Vikings is still a lot worse.

Captain Munnerlyn: "We feel like we’ve got one of the best units in the game. We’ve just got to keep working. Our coaches do a great job of putting in a great game plan, and we just go out there and cover the guys up. Everybody on this defence wants to be great."

You’re dead friggin’ right there lad.

I wonder if Sam Bradford might get figured out down the road with his quick passes and simple approach. Then again, the last Vikings quarterback to take them to 4-0 was a 40 year old Brett Favre so who really knows.

The Texans also have a mightily decent defence, even without J.J. Watt for the foreseeable future. What they don’t have is all that much to work with on offence other than a couple of quality receivers who are stuck catching passes from Brock Osweiler – there’s potential and there’s right now. When you overpay for the former based on only hints of the latter then that’s a risk you’re taking.

Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 6

Chicago Bears (1-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-3)

Nothing about these two teams gives me any confidence whatsoever in picking them. This game needs to go away. It needs to hide under a rock where nobody can see it. At least the Bears expected to be a massive disappointment this season. The Colts, while it’s no surprise, still seemed to think that the playoffs were there for the taking. Mate, not at 1-3 they ain’t. Better start winning quickly because even the Panthers are up against it from 1-3 and they actually have a running game.

Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 10

New York Jets (1-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

Yeah alright now that was more like it. The Steelers may have been inexplicably lit up by the Eagles but they soared back into normalcy with a straight demolition of the Chiefs, who ah… have their own problems it seems. They were the beneficiaries of a few turnovers that certainly helped them pile on the points but it was the confidence with which they threatened downfield that really stood out. No Martavis Bryant this season, this was the first time other than maybe week 1 vs WAS where they looked like that wasn’t even an issue. Le’Veon Bell was much better in his second game back and when you combine those two then you’re going to have a fair chunk of success. Let’s not forget they weren’t even at full strength in their O-Line either (although to be fair, Justin Houston wasn’t playing for KCC so maybe that evens out).

The trick now is to figure out if what happened against Philly was just a one off or something more indicative of a deeper flaw that teams might expose. The fact that it feels so out of character should be reassuring and yet it’s kinda daunting instead. Hey, we’ll find out eventually. Right now I look at this Steelers offence and I don’t see a better one in the entire NFL.

Troubles could be had against the Jets however. The Jets who don’t really deserve to be sitting at three losses already on the basis of their defence but then that’s what happens when your QB continues to treat the football like spare change in Vegas. Fitzy tossed another three picks against Seattle to take his season’s tally to 10 – two more than Jameis Winston (8 INTs) who himself is two ahead of Blake Bortles and Brock Osweiler (6 each). Frankly you don’t win when you do that. And for that reason he’s made it too hard to pick them – there’s bugger all chance that the Jets can score enough points to stick with the Steelers.

Completely off topic, I ah… I dunno how many people will find this as funny as I did but it’s good for a giggle:

Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 8

Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-3)

Two more disappointing teams. Not really interested here, sorry.

Wildcard’s Pick: Dolphins by 4

Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at Detroit Lions (1-3)

Choice, really looking forward to this one. Cannot wait to see how this unexpectedly good Eagles side goes after a week off to take stock of things. There’s vertigo possibility in this one:

Then of course there’s also the one-outs going on in the NFC East between Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott for the most throws without an interception. Prescott had him for the first couple weeks but Wentz overhauled him in week three. Then he had a bye, so Dak’s gone way out on top now. The Cowboys have a later kickoff though so Wentz can catch him before Prescott next throws a ball with purpose. This is all assuming, as we’ve been led to believe, that neither will ever throw an interception in their entire careers.

• Wentz: 66/102
• Prescott: 89/131

That’s already a rookie record for Dak, which he snatched off Carson (most pass attempts as a rookie without an interception to begin a career) and they’re maybe only a few weeks away from threatening Tom Brady’s overall record to begin a career. Maybe keep an eye on Paxton Lynch (14/24) and Jacoby Brissett (34/55) just in case, though Brissett might not see the field again for a fair while. Other quarterbacks aged 25 or younger to have started at least three games this season have mostly been tossing picks on the regular. Jameis Winston (still the youngest starter in the NFL) has thrown 8, Marcus Mariota 5 of them, 6 for Blake Bortles, 3 for Trevor Siemian and just the 1 for Derek Carr because he’s fast becoming really good.

Shout out to the Lions who are back to being bad in the red zone. Turns out there was a place they needed Calvin Johnson.

Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 5

New England Patriots (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-4)

If those obnoxious Bostonites are still complaining about conspiracies and Goodell-led vendettas then this oughta allay those fears. Mate, they gave Tom Brady the Browns in his first game back. That’s like Drederick Tatum coming outta prison and fighting Homer Simpson. Jeez, that was a demolition. And I’m preeeetty sure that Hue Jackson doesn’t have access to one of those little helicopter pack thingamajigs. If he did he wouldn’t be saving it for whoever had the back luck of playing quarterback for him this week, he’d have long since flown his ass outta town already.

Don’t read too much into last week’s defeat for New England. Most teams are getting pumped against a half-decent opposition with their third string QB in place. This was no different an offensive showing than what they did against the Texans but the Texans couldn’t move the ball and kept setting the Patriots up with easier drives. If you don’t believe me, here are Jacoby Brissett’s lines:

• vs HOU: 11/19 (58%) / 103 yards / 0 TD / 0 INT / 8 rushes for 48 yards
• vs BUF: 17/27 (63%) / 205 yards / 0 TD / 0 INT / 4 rushes for 23 yards

Tom Brady will be better.

Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 17

Washington R**skins (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1)

I guess it wouldn’t have made much sense for the Ravens to be undefeated at this stage – at least that L saves all the power rankers from having to justify their silly lists a little more. They should’ve won that game against the Raiders but… whatever.

Here we have a good team that might be bad against a bad team that might be good. Or it might be that the Ravens really are good and the R**skins really are bad. Those are my leanings but that hasn’t been worth much this season. All of the Ravens games have finished within a touchdown. They’ve been close, win or lose games every week. As for the Skins, well they’ve had one of everything: a close and convincing win, a close and convincing loss. The close ones both came against division rivals and the convincing ones each against the AFC North. Which is where they find themselves again, would you believe it? Dealer, chuck it all on purple. I’ve got a suspicion about this one and I don’t think the Skins are quite ready for a gruelling defence.

I’ve been reading Sherman Alexie recently as well so I’m pretty in tune with the plight of the Native American. Crazy Horse didn’t die for there to be a racist team-name in the NFL. Goddammit America.

Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 6

Atlanta Falcons (3-1) at Denver Broncos (4-0)

Julio Jones, ladies and gentlemen. 12 catches for exactly 300 yards with a touchdown in there to boot. That is quite honestly the finest wide receiver performance we will see all season, the best we’ve seen in years potentially. Feast your beady eyes upon this majesty:

Most Receiving Yards in an NFL Game:

1. Flipper Anderson (Rams) – 336 vs Saints (1989)
2. Calvin Johnson (Lions) – 329 vs Cowboys (2013)
3. Stephone Paige (Chiefs) – 309 vs Chargers (1985)
4. Jim Benton (Rams) – 303 vs Lions (1945)
5. Cloyce Box (Lions) – 302 vs Colts (1950)
6. Julio Jones (Falcons) – 300 vs Panthers (2016)
7. Jimmy Smith (Jaguars) – 291 v Ravens (2000)
8. Jerry Rice (49ers) – 289 vs Vikings (1995)
9. John Taylor (49ers) – 286 vs Rams (1989)
10. Antonio Brown (Steelers) – 284 vs Raiders (2015)

That Antonio Brown one was a memorable shellacking from last season though I’d momentarily forgotten the Megatron 329. I had to take a peek at the box score before that one came flooding back to me – Dallas was up 27-17 with less than seven minutes on the clock and inexplicably lost. When Dan Bailey hit a FG with 67 seconds remaining the Cowboys had a win probability of 99.92% and only one team knows how to lose from there. Matt Stafford made a brilliant play as time expired to go for the QB sneak at the goal-line instead of spiking the ball, catching Dallas off-guard and it paid off with the winning TD – after they’d gone 80 yards in 48 seconds and six plays with no timeouts, and one of those plays a spike and another the winning 1yd TD. That one still stings, but then the Cowboys got their revenge in the playoffs the next year.

Anyway, Julio is the man the people came to see. He was the star of week four and he’s gonna get the chance to tear up another Super Bowl defence this week, this time the defence that actually won the Super Bowl. Given Denver’s proclivities for continual excellence, it might be a bit harder this time for the lad.

At this stage it’s all up in the air (the high altitude Denver air) as to who lines up as quarterback this week: Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch. It doesn’t really matter. Siemian is the more controlling guy but Lynch showed he’s got a skill or two last week. But this game will be won or lost in the Ryan/Jones vs DEN Defence scrap. No team has given up fewer yards per play than Denver so far, only four have more takeaways and they’re out in front on sacks as well.

It might be true that the Falcons are pretty good this season. They might even be the best team in that division for now. 152 points in four games sure means something. As does Matt Ryan’s insane 2016 line of 72.1% completion for 1473 yards with an 11/2 TD/INT ratio and a quarterback rating of 126.3. To put that in context, that’s the top completion mark, the most passing yards, the tied-most touchdowns thrown and a massive lead in QB Rating. In third place of the latter (behind Garoppolo who barely counts after only two games) is Sam Bradford, wouldja believe it? But yeah, the real test comes now as they travel to Denver and Seattle in consecutive weeks.

Bloody hell, who did the schedules? That’s the last five of the last six Super Bowl competitors right there all in a row.

Wildcard’s Pick: Broncos by 6

Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1)

My man Zeke! Yes son. Run all over those suckers. Seven rushes of at least seven yards last time out, continuing on the trend he began against the Bears. Now, the Bears and 49ers are both very average rush defences but the signs were positive.

Unfortunately I’m gonna have to go against my fellas here for the first time this season because these Bengals are no mugs. As well as having a traditionally stifling rush defence they also have A.J. Green and no star wideout is fearing this Cowboys secondary even if Morris Claiborne has finally remembered how to play like five seasons after being drafted. Plus Tyler Eifert is back and I’ve gotta imagine that his presence fixes plenty of those red zone conversion issues. No kicker has taken more field goals than Mike Nugent’s 13 – including five from 20-29 yards out.

Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by 6

San Diego Chargers (1-3) at Oakland Raiders (3-1)

You wanna know the problems with trying to pick results in this damn league, look no further than the end of the Chargers-Saints game last week. 8:43 remaining and Josh Lambo pops a 47 yarder for a 34-21 SDC lead. It’s been a far from flawless game yet the Chargers look set for a helpful win after making just a few less mistakes. Or at least that was the case right then. The Saints get the ball and Brees pushes a few short completions. He then tries to push a few more and throws a pair of incompletions to force a punt with a shade under seven minutes remaining. First play from scrimmage Melvin Gordon rushes three yards and fumbles – forcing a 4th & 2 in the red zone, the Chargers are on the verge of getting away with it but Brees hits Michael Thomas for the TD.

Okay, a few errors creeping in with the game on the line but it’s still a six point game with five minutes remaining. Just gotta get a drive going, kill some clock and maybe hit a field goal. No worries. Except that first play from scrimmage, again, after the kickoff, Rivers hits Travis Benjamin for 5 yards. All good there… until he fumbles. Back to back offensive turnovers while trying to ice the game. You don’t win from there. Brees got nice and careful about it, edging New Orleans forward for John Kuhn to run it in from a yard. San Diego still had a chance to get that winning field goal but Rivers was sacked on first down, recovered his own fumble for a loss on second, threw deep and incomplete on 3rd & 22 and did the same on fourth down. Saints win, Chargers absolutely choke on their own dinner.

In a league as highly professional and intensely researched as this one… HOW THE HELL CAN THAT EVEN HAPPEN!? Let alone that the Chargers are one of a handful of teams who seem to lose like this all the time.

Having said that, the one person you can’t really blame has been Mr Rivers. Look at these numbers from the two quarterbacks on show here:

• A) 68.0% comp / 1066 yards / 9 TDs / 1 INT / 104.6 rate
• B) 67.6% comp / 1110 yards / 7 TDs / 1 INT / 104.5 rate

The first dude is Derek Carr and the second is Philip Rivers. About the only thing that genuinely splits them is that Carr has two game winning drives to his name already and Rivers has zero. Each is putting together superb seasons though Carr’s is getting way more focus, probably deservedly, because he’s a third year QB and Rivers is a veteran and because Carr’s team is actually winning games. As I thoroughly expect them to do again here, although the Chargers are gonna have a few good upsets in them along the way.

Wildcard’s Pick: Raiders by 3

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1)

I still have to second-guess myself to stop writing St Louis Rams, to be honest. Poor old St Louis. Not only did they lose their football team but the bloody Cardinals won 86 games this season and still didn’t make the MLB playoffs.

Good news for Rex Ryan, a win over the Patriots like that and his job is safe for the season unless absolute disaster strikes. Take a load off, Rex. Kick those slippers on and have a well-earned rest.

The Rams have three wins. Case Keenum is their quarterback and Todd Gurley is averaging 2.6 yards per carry. They couldn’t block a defensive line built out of empty moonshine jugs, it’s that bad and yet they have three wins. Only three players have more rushing attempts than Gurley: Ezekiel Elliott, Lamar Miller and LeGarrette Blount. Keep in mind that two of those three are playing behind backup quarterbacks as well. Elliott has 412 yards, Miller has 351 and Blount has 352 (all in top four, along with Isaiah Crowell’s 394). Gurley has 216. Fourth most rush attempts and twenty first most rushing yardage.

So how have they won three games already? It helps that they’ve played stumbling offences that were meant to be way better than they showed in Seattle and Arizona… but then they lost to the Niners so bleh. Another reason is Aaron Donald.

No wonder the Rams offensive line can’t block, they’re having their confidence shattered in training every week by Mr Donald. This has always been a great looking Rams D-Line but with Donald playing this well it’s finally seeing some results. 1.5 sacks and a forced fumble last week, he’s playing through the middle and nobody can touch him. At this rate he’s on pace for 100 QB pressures this season which is something only J.J. Watt has done in the last decade since that started to be measured. When you have a player like that coming straight down the middle in the QB’s eye-line then that forces hasty decisions and quick throws, which obviously is better for you backfield that they don’t have to stick with speedy receivers for as long. Tyrod Taylor has the longest average time in the pocket before throwing in the NFL – as a result of their downfield bomb tendencies – so this will be a fun one. Maybe not one with a lot of points in it though.

Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 3

New York Giants (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)

The Packers definitely can’t do what the Vikings just did to the Giants but I wonder if the G-Men could need a bit of time to recover. Odell Beckham has never had to deal with a game like that before. He also hasn’t scored a touchdown yet in 2016 which is weird to imagine. By the way, if I’m listing my top five WRs, I’m not 100% that he makes it. Julio Jones is a lock, A.J. Green and Antonio Brown as well. He might sneak in one of those last two spots, he’s a candidate for sure, though Dez Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson and Alshon Jeffrey are all worth a look in as well.

The Packers have given up good yardage in the secondary so far though, their pass defence is ranked 29th in yards allowed. Not ideal. Eli Manning has won twice in playoff games at Lambeau. Aaron Rodgers is coming off a bye following his best personal performance in about two years. Home field tips this one in the Packers’ cheesy direction.

(I went to search ‘cheese’ on my eyeTunes for a good kicker and this was the closest thing I could find that wasn’t an obscure Nirvana track from their first album. It will absolutely do)

Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)

We’re now entering the points of the season where you can pretty much begin to get a real handle on which teams are worth what and all that and the Carolina Panthers… are they maybe not that good this season? There have been a few struggles all over, the kind of stuff you can maybe excuse early in the season and against good teams, but no matter how legendary the opposition WR is you cannot let him hit 300 yards through the air. You cannot let Matt Ryan top 500 yards. If that’s happening then there is something seriously wrong.

You wanna point to a single thing then you have to say that whether or not they should have paid Josh Norman, they definitely shouldn’t have let him walk with only a couple of rookies to pick up the slack. James Bradberry and Daryl Worley each got torched by the man Julio, although third year CB Bene Benwikere didn’t do any better to be fair. And Josh Norman’s sure had some things to say about it all:

"Man, I told you (the NFC South) is all Julio's now."

"Shoot, just disrespectful to line up a rook against that man like that, like he ain't the top wide receiver in the league.”

 "You get what you pay for."

Alright son, we get the idea. To be fair he also offered a fair bit of support for “his guys” on that Panthers team in the radio interview that provided the last quote there but that’s just him sniffing a controversy and trying to douse the flames. Too late.

Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 7

BYE: Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3), Kansas City Chiefs (2-2), New Orleans Saints (1-3), Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. Unlike Peyton Manning, he has no discernible talent for baking cupcakes. Or tacky endorsements.