No messing around here. Straight down to brass tax. Who will win the 2014 FIFA World Cup?

Of the 32 teams competing, only maybe a third have a realistic chance of winning. In fact, let’s split the teams up into a few categories: those who are genuinely in it to win it, those with an outside chance and those effectively making up the numbers.

Just There for the Beers

Australia

Greece

Costa Rica

Honduras

Ecuador

Nigeria

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Iran

South Korea

Algeria

Maybe In Their Wildest Dreams

Croatia

Mexico

Cameroon

Chile

Japan

USA

Russia

Switzerland

Outside Hopes

Ivory Coast

Uruguay

Colombia

England

Italy

Ghana

France

Portugal

Belgium

Genuine Contenders

Netherlands

Spain

Brazil

Argentina

Germany

Ignoring the first two categories where those teams have basically zero chance of winning, we’re left with 14 teams. Ghana and the Ivory Coast represent the growing threat of African football. The chances are they’re more likely to be knocked out in the first round than make the final but the star talent that they have at least gives them a hope in a close extra time contest. Remember that Ghana only missed the semis last time thanks to Luis Suarez’s handball. Uruguay themselves have some pedigree and also the advantage of playing in South America. They meet England and Italy in the group stages, so one of that trio will perish early. The other two could go deep. This is probably England’s best squad in a while, but it’s a squad that hasn’t played all that much with each other. They could thrive or they could starve. Italy are always that way too. France and Portugal have struggled with results in getting to this tournament but you can never write off a team with Cristiano Ronaldo, nor a team as stacked as the French one is. Colombia will do well in the conditions though the health of Falcao is crucial (update - Falcao's been ruled out of the tournament. Oh well...), and Belgium have unearthed a golden generation of players. Whether or not that transforms into a golden team or not is another matter.

Realistically it’s one of the five big boys that will take home the trophy. Brazil are favourites given the home advantage, and these conditions will suit Argentina too. Spain, Netherlands and Germany have all done well in previous tournaments. The latter two hoping to finally go the distance, while Spain have a great shot at defending their title.

Naming five winners is a cop out though. Let's look at some deciding factors that should swing things one way or another (or another or another or another).

Home Field Advantage

There have been 19 total FIFA World Cups in history. One of the biggest difference-makers, according to standard wisdom, is the continental conditions. European teams tend to dominate in Europe and South American teams do the same in the Americas. Of the 10 Cups held in Europe, 9 were won by natives of that continent, while all 7 held in North or South America were won by Brazil, Argentina or Uruguay. Brazil also won in 2002 in Japan/South Korea and Spain won last time in South Africa.

So no European team has ever won in the Americas (though one has made the final every time since 1950, regardless of where it was held). Brazil won in 1958 in Sweden (beating the hosts in the final). So judging by that, the most likely champs will come from the CONMEBOL conference.

Only 6 times, surprisingly, has the home team won the whole thing. Uruguay, Argentina, Italy, England and France all won their first titles at home. Germany did it also in 1974 (Having first won in Switzerland in 1954). Brazil has hosted the World Cup just one time before, in 1950, where they lost in an upset in the final to Uruguay. 

The Weather

It varies in Brazil, depending on where you are. It will be winter through the tournament, but that could mean tropical downpours or searing heat just the same. The final will be hosted in Rio, where winter afternoons still bring beach weather, and should have minimal effect on well prepared teams. No excuses here.

Winning Culture

The 19 tournaments have been won by just 8 different countries. Brazil have won 5 (most recently in 2002), Italy 4, Germany 3, Argentina and Uruguay 2 and France, England and Spain all once. The Netherlands have never won, though twice made the final in the 70s with their total football strategy, and of course were runners up last time out too. Spain are the two time defending European and defending World Champions, but the last team to defend the World Cup was Brazil and that was way back in 1962.

The Best Player

You’d expect the winning team to boast the best player. The guy who led his team to victory with a series of inspiring performances. Well, it doesn’t happen as often as you’d think, actually. The Golden Ball has been awarded to the outstanding player at every tournament since the inception of the World Cup in 1930. 10 times has it gone to a player in the winning team, barely above 50% of the time. A winning player has always been in the top 3, though not since 1994 (Romario for Brazil) has one won it. Ronaldo won in 1998 when his Brazilian team were shockingly dispatched in the final by hosts France (Ronaldo himself was controversially unwell for the final); Oliver Kahn took the Ball in 2002 (Ronaldo could easily have won again); Zidane won in 2006 though was pretty much responsible for France failing to win after he was sent off for THAT headbutt, leaving his team to flounder on penalties to an Italian side that barely got past Australia in the round of 16 (they deserved what they got by seeing off Germany in the semis, however); and in 2010 the Diego Forlan show got the award while a clinical and cohesive Spanish side deservedly won the cup – their incredible teamwork and overall ability trumping the need for a superstar player.

This year, Neymar deserves a mention as the bloke carrying the load of the host nation, but there’s no doubt that the best players at this tournament are Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, the pair who could probably take a mortgage out on the Ballon D’or these days. Ronaldo’s supporting crew are doubtful, while Messi is backed by a superb group of internationals. Clearly having the best player doesn’t translate into glory all that often though, especially not in the modern era. Unless Ronaldo has a Maradona ’86 type tournament, his chances are slim. That ’86 Argentinian side won the World Cup despite Maradona being the only member to be named in the team of the tournament. That’s the only ever occasion where just a single winner was named. On three other occasions the winners have not been the most featured team in the All-Star squad. The Hungarians well outnumbered the West Germans (6 vs 2) in the 1954 side. Hungary featured the likes of Ferenc Puskas and Sándor Kocsis, and along with the Dutch team of the 70s must be one of the great teams never to have won a World Cup. Brazil in 1982 are another one, clearly the best side until they simply failed to beat an Italian side who only made the second round by virtue of a tie break over Cameroon, falling to one of the ultimate rearguard actions. No doubt a young Jose Mourinho was taking notes. That tournament’s team had 4 Brazilians and 4 Italians. The final occasion was 1998 where Brazil and France shared the most featured honours with 4 apiece. Talent across the park obviously is more important. So which of our contenders fit that bill? All of them, to be fair. Brazil’s squad don’t look anywhere near as dangerous as those of a decade ago, though that team was the best in the world by a distance. This one balances that with a great looking defence, and home field advantage.

Patriotism

Home field advantage is one thing, but fans have a tendency to panic at the tough moments. When you’re down 1-0 at half time in a knockout game, who picks you up? The coach. And you know what? In the history of the FIFA World Cup, the winning coach has on every single occasion been from the country he coached to glory. All five of the major contenders have homeboy coaches, as do England, France, Italy, Uruguay, Portugal and Belgium, so expect that streak to continue. Brazil have even brought back 2002 winning coach Luis Felipe Scolari. Big Phil has already steered them to a Confederations Cup victory in his current reign.

The Odds

Brazil 3.85

Argentina 5.50

Germany 6.50

Spain 7.50

Belgium 17.50

France & Uruguay 20

England, Netherlands & Italy 25

Portugal & Colombia 30

Obtained from a reputable source. They basically all agree on the order, just some minor differences in odds. Which means that these people are dumb since Belgium are no way the fifth most likely team to win. Colombia get some benefits for being South American, though Holland and Portugal are way underrated. England, as usual, are overrated. Uruguay could be a dark horse and Italy are always dangerous in close matches. The volatile French are perennially tough to predict, but may prove their own biggest enemies as often is the case.

Conclusions

Just like Vegas, we’re playing the odds here. One of five teams will probably win. Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Netherlands or Spain. In terms of the ability of their squads, none stick out above the rest, though Argentina have the virtue of Lionel Messi as a superstar leader. Whether or not that pays off or becomes a burden for lil Lionel is another thing. They are all well coached though Brazil has the pedigree edge. The Dutch have never won before, the only one of the big 5. Spain won for the first time last time. Unfortunately not since Brazil in 1962 has a team successfully defended the World Cup. And history will tell you that a tournament in the Americas is an enormous advantage to the local nations in getting over that final, celebrated hurdle.

France, Portugal and Uruguay are the most likely of the non-Genuines to make a run to the final. The latter two especially. Portugal and Spain will be the Europeans best suited to the South American conditions (those two countries basically founded the continent) while the Dutch and Germans will need their talented though streaky squads to be on their game if they are to lift the trophy.

Considering all of the evidence, you have to say that Brazil and Argentina are definitely the teams with the best chances. They have the most going for them and will rely the least on luck and circumstance. No point in sitting on the fence though. Home field advantage doesn’t mean nearly as much as home continent advantage and Argentina boasts the more impressive squad (subjectively of course). Brazil has the advantage in legacy and coaching. The way the draw is set, these two heavyweights could be meeting in Rio De Janiero on July 14th for the biggest prize in world football. Since 1986 only Italy in 2006 have won the World Cup having conceded a goal in the final, and that was on penalties. Aside from the anomaly of the 1998 final, the winning goals tend to come late, and on the back of some shutdown defence. With the likes of Dante, Dani Alves, Maicon and Marcelo hanging around the backline, it will not be the unstoppable attacking threat that the team is known for that wins the World Cup, but a suffocating defence that does the trick.

And so Brazil stands alone as the deserved favourites for the 2014 World Cup. Given all they have going their way, you simply can't look past them. But with all that can happen in this illustrious spectacle, maybe just don’t bet the house on it…