Last Week: 4/10

Overall: 60/130

Bournemouth vs Everton

You know, with Everton looking dangerous without any pesky Europa League trips to Slovakia or Belgium or Ukraine, and with Liverpool and Manchester United having shown similar benefits in the past couple years, plus taking into account the depth of quality in the top eight or so spaces this Premier League season… what if we end up with a sort of rotating door of European qualification? Everton and Spurs make it one season, then drop out as Liverpool and Southampton qualify the next, and so on. People are talking about how open this season is and part of that is because the runaway champs of last time are having a ‘mare of a time but part is also down to the next two tiers of teams all making improvements. Everton are for sure in that group. Bournemouth are as far away as they can get.

Hey and Everton this week agreed a deal with 17 year old Bury defender Matty Foulds, keep an eye out for that name in the future. This club has a superb record of signing English defenders. On that note, Leighton Baines is coming back into fitness now. Save your fantasy transfer for this fella, he’s guaranteed points. A defender who takes set pieces, man.

Wildcard’s Pick: Everton for the win

Aston Villa vs Watford

I read an Aston Vanilla joke the other day, and it pissed me off some. Not because the Villans don’t deserve it, coz they do, but because of this outrageous assertion that ‘vanilla’ = ‘plain, bland, tasteless’. Vanilla is not flavourless, vanilla is a goddamn flavour and it’s the best bloody one there is. Flavourless ice cream wouldn’t taste like vanilla, it’d taste like frozen bleedin’ water, wouldn’t it.

I’m shocked to be saying this but Watford have emerged as one of my favourite teams to watch. There’s something cool about a team that knows how they want to play and they don’t try and do anything much else. This team is focussed and confident and had they brought their finishing boots (why would you ever leave those ones behind?) then they’d have at least gotten a point off of Man Utd last week. Deeney and Ighalo are too good to repeat that performance.

Maybe this will be the game that Villa finally show some signs of hope and improvement (as Sunderland did last game). Maybe. But I won’t believe it until I see it so Watford it is.

Wildcard’s Pick: Hornets 2-1

Sunderland vs Stoke City

More like Stoked United, amiright? *hyuck hyuck*

Nah, but seriously, three straight clean sheets and seven points from those games. Not even a coincidence that this run coincides exactly with Ryan Shawcross returning from injury. Though they also haven’t scored more than one goal in a game since a September clash with Bournemouth.

Big Sam pulled a smartass move telling everyone that John O’Shea would be playing left back against Palace but in reality he was planning a five man defence and surprisingly it worked. It was a horrible mistake from Scott Dann (lad’s got the Wildcard Jinx on him it seems) that got them the three points but they kept themselves in the game long enough for it to happen. That’s Big Sam for ya. With just a little bit of steel coming through in those players, this game feels almost inevitable. It could go any of the three ways but you can absolutely be sure that there will not be many goals.

Wildcard’s Pick: 0-0, sitting on the fence

Manchester City vs Southampton

As bad as City were against Liverpool, they were without a few key faces (and might now be without Joe Hart). There’s a lot more to come and it so happens that they boss Southampton. Which is probably why they don’t buy all their players, unlike Liverpool and Man United who have each lost to them within the last few meetings. Since Southampton were last promoted, they’ve beaten City once and drawn with them once. They’ve lost four times including three in a row by a combined score of 9-1. Two poor results in a row plus a Champions League loss in there too, it’s very hard to see them falling again at home.

Wildcard’s Pick: City 3-1

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United

Who do you think the away fans will boo more: Alan Pardew of Yohan Cabaye? Definitely Pards, right? I mean, he is a slimy cocky bastard… albeit a strangely lovable one. He reminds me a little of Roger Sterling from Mad Men only without the endearing wit.

Hmm, this is proving the toughest one of the round to pick. Palace were not impressive at home against Sunderland, showing no signs whatsoever that they can break down a defensive team (someone tell Zaha to STOP CUTTING INSIDE! And for God’s sake, quit slowing it down so much when you get it, son). There wasn’t much incision, they need to be playing on the counter. Newcastle haven’t offered much at all though. Good players in there, but it ain’t showing. S’pose a draw’s about fair but I’m really not sure.

Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1

Leicester City vs Manchester United

Top of the table clash. Who in the wildest terrain of the English midlands possibly thought that Leicester City could find themselves top of the table at this time? They started the season at 2000/1 odds to win the title and in some places now have dropped as low as 66/1. Still long, long odds – about the same as one bookie has for Arsene Wenger to be the next manager out of a job (maybe if he retires?) – but that gives you a good idea how much they’ve screwed with everyone’s minds.

Speaking of good odds, most places have Jamie Vardy second only to Sergio Aguero in the top scorer books. Make no mistake who this game is all about. Vardy had his first great PL game against United last season in that incredible 5-3 win that began his rise to whatever dizzying heights he finds himself at now (and also began the end of Angel Di Maria in Manchester, about a month into his time).

Ruud Van Nistelrooy was at Old Trafford to witness MUFC’s 0-0 draw with PSV (two of his old teams) and Vardy takes on United this weekend looking to break RVN’s consecutive scoring record. Both tied on 10, it’s all so cyclic and poetic. United also happen to have the best defence in the Premier League so this’ll be his toughest test yet. They’re nothing like the team that he torched for 20 minutes last season. Here’s the streak:

1. Bournemouth 1-1 Leicester: 86th minute equaliser (penalty)
2. Leicester 3-2 Aston Villa: 82nd minute equaliser
3. Stoke 2-2 Leicester: 69th minute equaliser
4. Leicester 2-5 Arsenal: 13th minute opener and 89th minute consolation
5. Norwich 1-2 Leicester: 28th minute penalty opener
6. Southampton 2-2 Leicester: 66th minute goal and 91st minute equaliser
7. Leicester 1-0 Crystal Palace: 59th minute winner
8. West Brom 2-3 Leicester: 77th minute goal
9. Leicester 2-1 Watford: 65th minute penalty
10. Newcastle 0-3 Leicester: 46th minute opener

There were a couple pens in there, sure, but some of those goals were absolutely crucial and while he only played one of the top six in that time, that won’t matter if he sets the record against United. By the way, it’s about to get a whole lot tougher for Leicester:

Man United (H), Swansea (A), Chelsea (H), Everton (A), Liverpool (A) & Man City (H) make up the remainder of their 2015 calendar year.

Wildcard’s Pick: United 2-1 (but who scores the goal…?)

Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea

Harry Kane vs Diego Costa. One local English lad, one Brazilian turned Spaniard. One humble and likable, the other infuriating and crass. Kane’s movement is sharp and clever, Costa’s is so slack that his manager slammed him at half time of the Champions League. People have talked about the various names responsible for Chelsea’s poor form but Costa is right up there. He’s been terrible and if you regularly read these Predictions then you’ve heard this song before. Kane shoots in volume, Costa won’t even shoot at all if he has the chance to fall over and claim a penalty instead.

Spurs are not going to win the Premier League. Forget about that. Champions League qualification though… yeah don’t count that out at all. We’ll assume that Leicester are falling back eventually and that leaves fourth open for whoever can step up and claim it. Liverpool, Spurs, Everton, Southampton, even Chelsea. That’s a brutal battle. First place is between Arsenal, United and City, by the way.

Still, Spurs are unbeaten since week one and the longer that continues, the more belief that people will have in them. They’re a great team to watch and will continue to be so long as they can keep up their high energy footy throughout the full season, having already rolled with the punches of a few injuries. Tottenham are doing a much better job with the Europa balance this time as well.

And, honestly, I think they’ll have too much for Chelsea. Mourinho will play it safe but Spurs are pretty tough to tame. They have creative outlets all over the show and if needs must they can pour in goals from set pieces too. Set pieces like Chelsea have been crap at defending recently.

Wildcard’s Pick: 3-1

West Ham United vs West Bromwich Albion

The Westies. Eww.

Which begs the question: where are all the East teams? West Ham, West Brom, Preston North End, Northampton Town, Southampton and Southend but no Easts. And if that sounds like a trivial, frivolous angle to take on this game then, well, it’s probably gonna be more entertaining than the game itself even still. The only way this game opens up is if West Ham make the same mistakes at the back that they did against Spurs. They shouldn’t, they tend to bounce back from those games well. West Brom tend, for whatever reason, to be way stingier on the road. Probably the extra conservatism and all that.

Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1

Liverpool vs Swansea City

Ahh, how can you not love Jurgen Klopp?

He’s too good for Liverpool! It’s not fair.

But I will say this: I reckon as much as they’re now capable of taking it to the best teams and getting results, they’re just as susceptible to losing to others. Like Crystal Palace, for example. Probably not Swansea though, the Swans are in a hole and they’re struggling to dig out of it (which is a weird turn of phrase, won’t digging only get you deeper?). Bafetimbi Gomis hasn’t scored since week four and he found himself on the bench last week, when they came from two down to draw 2-2 with Bournemouth. You score twice past Bourney, you should really win. It sucks for Garry Monk coz he’s a massive talent who nobody wants to see in trouble yet the thing is: working through the bad times is a crucial part of being a manager. If you can’t get through those valleys then three bad results become a month of bad results become two months and the season’s in jeopardy. Swansea really need to play Manchester United again.

Wildcard’s Pick: Liverpool 2-0

Norwich City vs Arsenal

And a simple one to finish. Norwich can scrap. But they can’t scrap for the full 12 rounds.

Wildcard’s Pick: Arsenal 1-0