The Wildcard’s Premier League Predictions - Week 19
Last Week: 5/10
Overall: 76/180
Watford vs Tottenham Hotspur
And so we come to the halfway mark of the season. Once these games are through they’ll all have played 19 times with 19 more to come. Double or nothing, aye Leicester fans?
Watford will take exactly that themselves, sitting seventh as it stands and coming off a really impressive 2-2 draw with Chelsea. The Champs aren’t the same team since Jose left, they’re much more up for the fight and playing looser than they have all season. That’s also an indictment on those players for not finding any of this while Mourinho was still there but whatever. Watford needed to come from behind and they did, surviving challenges at both ends for a very well-earned draw (while at the same time Spurs were crushing Norwich).
Hey, check out the top scorers list:
- Jamie Vardy (Leicester City) – 15
- Odion Ighalo (Watford) – 13
- Riyad Mahrez (Leicester City) – 13
- Romelu Lukaku (Everton) – 13
- Harry Kane (Tottenham) – 11
Two Englishmen, the top three players all entering the league through promotion and the fifth through home-grown academy progress and only one with Champions League experience (Lukaku as a teen with Anderlecht). Oh, and two of them are playing in this game. Bound to be fun.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-1 Spurs
Crystal Palace vs Swansea City
You know who has the longest unbeaten streak going right now? Bournemouth. Six games since their last loss. But Crystal Palace are at five, tied with Watford and West Ham (the Hammers’ are all draws – they’re also eight games without a win). Swansea could use another win but they’re kinda terrible on the road – only one win in eight and it was against Aston Villa. I still like the Swans’ chances to survive but let’s see what kind of manager they can draw first.
Wildcard’s Pick: Palace to squeeze it, 1-0
West Bromwich Albion vs Newcastle United
Wildcard’s Pick: Draw
Everton vs Stoke City
Stoke are getting plenty of credit for their recent form, beating both Manchester teams and beating them comfortably, but it’s Everton that have only lost one of their last eight games – that 3-2 weird one against Leicester. And the only two other home losses they have in 2015/16 were to those two Manchester teams.
It does feel like they’ve cooled off some the last month or so, with the goals coming harder, but every team has those dips and swerves. Getting that Tom Cleverley winner in Newcastle is massive – this is a team that has conceded 25% of its goals in the final ten minutes and injury time of games and that has been criticised for not getting the results they deserve. There were three dramatic points where it looked like they were only in for one. They were on the other end of Bournemouth doing this to them (in the most dramatic finish of any game this season) for a 3-3 draw which turned the Cherries form all the way around as they went on to win their next three games and haven’t lost since. That kind of thing is massive for morale. And the most incredible thing of all… it was TOM CLEVERLEY! Good on ya Tommy, I've always backed you.
Romelu Lukaku’s goal scoring streak ended at seven Premier League games, but here’s another one to keep an eye on: Stoke City have only conceded two goals in the 677 minutes that Ryan Shawcross has played in the Premier League. Both in the 2-1 loss to Palace. He’s not the best passer and he puts himself in dangerous positions sometimes (already has one red card) but it continues to amaze me that he hasn’t played for England. Maybe the new overrated Stoke will help him out.
(They’re definitely overrated, at least for now. They’re not that free-flowing or attacking, they’re a normal team that tries to be positive now. Good for them but the goals against United were a terrible defensive mistake and screamer from outside the box. Things are coming around but they’re hardly the finished product).
Wildcard’s Pick: Everton 2-1
Norwich City vs Aston Villa
Will this be the game that Aston Villa finally win?
Yeah sure, why not. They’re bound to win a game eventually and here they come in with a couple scrapping draws in a row about to play Norwich and then Sunderland. They may be on the road, but then they haven’t won a home game in the league all season so no problem. Remi Garde says they need a win from one of these two or else they’re doomed. He’s dead right too.
Wildcard’s Pick: Villa 1-0
Manchester United vs Chelsea
Lucky Louis survives for another game, aye? I said last week that I’d have sacked him with a 0-0 draw and instead his United team limped to yet another dreary result, going down 2-0 to Stoke while offering, as usual, next to nothing on attack. They’re only three points off fourth but this is disastrous, without a win since November 21 and currently on their longest losing streak (four games) since 1961. Bear in mind that the ’61 team was only three years removed from the Munich Air Disaster.
I could go on with damning stats but what has struck me more than anything these last few days has been this:
"Football should be enjoyable, but there has been nothing enjoyable about football at FC Bayern for a while now. And to say that he had the players behind him was a myth."
That’s Uli Hoeness, former Bayern chairman, speaking about sacking Van Gaal in 2011. And then there’s this from Martí Perarnau’s book ‘Pep Confidential’, speaking about his time in Barcelona:
“He changed a few positions and introduced possession-based football. We swapped Bayern’s traditional style for this high-possession game. But there was still no flexibility in terms of players’ positions and everyone had to stick rigidly to his own area. No one was allowed to wander out of his specified sphere of influence and we began to play one-touch football. We had to focus on passing the ball to each other. In some matches we ended up with 80% of possession, but there was no real rhythm or pace. After half an hour, everyone in the Allianz Arena would be yawning at this display of constant passing. I bet all of the 71,000 spectators could predict our every move. Our game was well executed but very, very predictable.”
It’s uncanny, really. I’m now 100% convinced that he isn’t long for this job and to be honest I’m surprised he’s still there at all.
Wildcard’s Pick: 0-0, wouldn’t it be fitting?
Arsenal vs Bournemouth
Oh Arsene. Two steps forward and one step backwards every time. How can you beat City one week in a major statement of your title-winning credentials and then go to Southampton and get annihilated 4-0 with the possibility to go top with a win?
“We were a bit unlucky because all the goals were debatable. The first goal was offside, the second goal was a foul and third goal was a goal-kick, so if you’re a bit below par and on top of that you have the first three goals against you in the decision-making then it’s even more difficult. But what can I do about it?” – Arsene Wenger
Jeezus, make that two steps back.
Then again, where would we all be without Arsene Wenger’s delusions? We’d be living in a world of endless cynicism where irony rules for irony’s sake. Morality would be a myth, money would be a jesting and chaotic god. We’re already pretty close to that reality and that’s why we all owe Arsene for his unceasing dedication to his own ideals. He will never sacrifice his team’s attacking leanings. He will never adapt for the sake of a single result, how could he spoil a life’s work for a week’s pleasure?
We all want to believe in creative football at the pinnacle. We all want to believe that hurling a massive pile of cash at a team won’t bring success, but nobody is going to turn that down for the potential of fleeting success. Arsene lives on an island of those beliefs. He believes so that the rest of us can rest easy in our glorious decay.
''As belief shrinks from the world, people find it more necessary than ever that someone believe . . . Nuns in black. . . . Fools, children. We surrender our lives to make your nonbelief possible. . . . There is no truth without fools.'' – Don Delillo, ‘White Noise’
Which brings me to a further philosophical argument that I’ve been pondering: Much like the immovable object/unstoppable force thing, would the perfect attacking move break the perfect defensive structure? Because if the answer is yes, then that should be what every team is aspiring to… perfect attacking football. And flawless structure like Louis Van Gaal’s ideals are pointless, since the best attacking teams are still going to be able to score and they’ll have no way to respond. Maybe I’m an optimist like Wenger but I’ve gotta think that the quest for goals is more rewarding than the quest for clean sheets.
Wildcard’s Pick: Arsenal 3-0
West Ham vs Southampton
West Ham should sack their physio, honestly. How many injuries can they possibly sustain until their season collapses upon itself? They can barely put a back four out there and their creative options are slimmer than Louis Van Gaal’s chance of a Christmas card from Victor Valdes. They’re actually in limbo right now waiting for guys to return, during the busiest time of the season. It’s worth applauding how well they’re fighting with bare bones. Give them a couple weeks and things will get better. They came into this season with one goal: don’t get relegated. They already have 26 points so… so far so good.
More importantly, DID YOU SEE THIS GOAL!?
Cuco Martina, take a goddamn bow, son. What a strike. Is it even possible for a football to swerve like that? Bloody hell…
Also, raise a glass to the world’s game:
Wildcard’s Pick: Southampton 2-0
Leicester City vs Manchester City
Top of the table clash, winner takes first spot! This game should be absolutely fascinating and there is no greater statement that the Foxes could make than to beat City, who are still clearly the most likely champs. The only team in the league with an attacking group as skilful and incisive as City’s is Arsenal and they pumped Leicester 5-2 on the road a few months back.
I want to give a lil shout out to Wes Morgan who I never rated as a Premier League standard dude last season but he’s proving me wrong. Against Liverpool he showed how important he is, throwing himself around the park with a supreme bravery. He’s not a fantastic player on his feet but where he thrives is in his ability to cover the ground around him. Contorting into all sorts of strange shapes to block a shot or cover a passing lane. For a team like the Foxes who play a disjointed game that revels in its own chaos on the break, that’s so important to have a defender that can protect his keeper even when he’s caught out of position.
Here’s what’s got me rubbing my fingertips with glee: there will be no Vincent Kompany, tragically, and as such the Citizens have to do their thing without their captain and we know that they’re a drastically worse team at the back without him. There will be spots of disorganisation and that is the kind of thing that Jamie Vardy has fed upon these last few months. Liverpool sliced them to pieces, remember. And then Liverpool went and out-Leicester-ed Leicester. 4-4-2 with a fluid midfield and a whole lot of energy. I’m pleased to say that I picked that too, though I did think it’d be a high scorer rather than a 1-0 game but, look, I’ll take my victories where I can get them. Five outta ten last week, and I was a few seconds away from six were it not for Cleverley. Three of my misses were within a goal of getting ticked off.
Yeah, so, City for the win as I’m picking it, but I’ve got severe reservations about this one. I’m basically only going on reputation. The tipping factor is that I have a feeling the City attack is coming round into a really sustained stretch of form and that is a scary prospect. By the way, that loss to Liverpool was the first time that Leicester City have been kept scoreless in the PL all season, in their 18th game.
Wildcard’s Pick: City 2-1
Sunderland vs Liverpool
The final game of 2015. It’s been a wild year, that’s for sure.
Christian Benteke. Can we see this guy more often please? I get that he’s not the typical Jurgen Klopp forward. He definitely wouldn’t have made that transfer. But Benteke is a natural born finisher and that kind of thing is rare even at the top level. He showed it against Leicester in earning them a valuable three points the other day. He’s so much better than Divock Origi, man. The problem is that Klopp’s strikers are a revolving thing because they all keep getting hurt.
This feels like a routine win for the Reds.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-0 Liverpool