People seem to think penalties are a lottery for some reason. It’s a cliche in football but that cliche is wrong. They’re not a lottery at all, they’re an extreme refinement of the ultimate purpose of the sport. Ball. Goal. Person trying to stop ball from going into goal. And what have the Footy Ferns been struggling with more than anything lately? Kicking that little round thing between the big metal things with the net hanging off it. It’s not the way that the game should have been decided but to beat Belgium on penalties in their Algarve Cup opener was definitely a step forwards for this team.

Eight players took spotties and seven of them scored. Katie Bowen, Sarah Gregorius, Rebekah Stott, Rosie White, Meikayla Moore, Annalie Longo, and Daisy Cleverley all hitting the target in that pressure situation, holding their poise and most of them with pretty sharp finishes too. Bowen picking out the bottom corner perfectly. Gregorius lifting hers into the roof of the net to give the keeper no chance even after she’d dived the right way. Moore with the mind games as she shaped one way then struck it firmly in the other direction. And Cleverley of course with the winner. CJ Bott did miss one but somebody’s usually gonna miss one in these situations. It may not be a lottery but there’s still luck involved.

Luck which is limited by technique and preparation... and you know who’s had a lot of practice with penalty shootouts lately? Erin Nayler, that’s who. She’s not starting too many games at club level as of the last few months but she has been getting a crack in cup footy and twice her Bordeaux team have gone to spotties in the French Cup this year with Nayler wearing the gloves. They won both times. (Plus once more without Nayler in goal in their quarter-final... really putting their fans through the ringer there). It wasn’t until the eight kick that she managed to get her hands to one with a brilliant save to deny Sarah Wijnants but that’s the nature of it. She went the right way more often than not but you can’t do anything about the ones they put beyond your reach. Just gotta keep on guessing right and then put it away when you get the chance... which she did.

It shouldn’t have gone to penalties though. The Ferns were leading late into this game, having scored once and with the opportunities to have scored another couple on top of that. Belgium came out strong with a solid first quarter of an hour or so but once the Ferns settled into their game they began to string a few more passes together and grew in confidence from there. The last half hour of the first half and the first twenty minutes of the second half were massive improvements on where they were a year ago, plenty to be excited about there, but then a few old habits started to show.

The red card was the one that changed the game but the signs were already there that the Ferns were becoming a little too aware of the scoreboard... particularly the clock part. Tom Sermanni did go to his bench to bring Annalie Longo on for Olivia Chance to add some energy to the front three but still the girls were dropping a little too deep. Bunge’s first yellow was fair enough. A crunching tackle which also had the effect of sending Davinia Vanmechelen off on a stretcher (her leg seemed to get caught under Bunge’s, it wasn’t a dirty challenge just a late one, and the injury very unfortunate). Her second cheese slice four minutes later was also fair enough. Zero arguments. But it was one of those ones where she was put in a bad situation by some sloppy and panicked passing in the Ferns’ own half and Bunge got snapped on the lunge. Off she went. Sorta gotta give equal blame to those around her for that one.

Playing one woman down, Tom Sermanni had to make a sacrifice somewhere and pleasingly he chose to keep numbers forward and just go to a straight back four, the wingbacks sitting in. Unfortunately the attackers didn’t quite reward him for that, unable to hold the ball well enough and missing a half chance or two. Meanwhile Belgium were very much enjoying the extra room to pass the ball around on their own forays forward and eventually the Ferns broke, conceding in the 90th minute to Chloé vande Velde (who had come on for Vanmechelen), nobody picking her up on the six yard box for the second effort after Nayler had half-punched away the initial cross. However it happened, the goal was coming and the Ferns again failed to close out a game late on. Just like against Netherlands and Cameroon at the World Cup, just like against Wales in the build up. Late goals have been a bit of an issue.

Yet to be fair they were playing with only ten on the park, so circumstances were a little different. Plus they then went on ahead and won the penalty shootout, showing top notch #mentality to put the late equaliser behind them and regain composure. On the whole you’ve gotta have them in the credit for that... but this is all a lot of words to get through before addressing the main concerns... how did they look going forward? Where are the goals gonna come from? How was that attacking balance?

Rightio so Tommy Shades went with a 3-4-3 kinda shape. 5-2-2-1 if you’re a cynical person. Erin Nayler in goal needs no introduction. Then there was a back three of Claudia Bunge, Rebekah Stott, and Meikayla Moore with CJ Bott and Ali Riley at wingback. Ordinarily Abby Erceg would start ahead of Bunge but she wasn’t there so no dramas, always good to test the depth and remember that tournament features a number of top European sides and Claudia Bunge is an up and coming kiwi player still based in Aotearoa... don’t overlook the shop window factor here. She did get sent off... but she was very good before that. The whole backline was, to be fair. Moore and Stott were fantastic throughout, winning plenty of tackles and breaking up the flow for Belgium. Ali Riley had a tough time of it initially as Belgium started with a few attacks down her side but she quickly found her feet (remember she’s still in preseason mode at club level atm, a little initial rustiness was visible from a few others in her situation too) and then was borderline player of the day the rest of the way. Honestly, this was one of the best games Ali Riley has played for the Ferns for a couple years.

That back three meant good positional coverage across the pitch and it also allowed for Moore to unleash some of her lovely accurate long balls towards willing runners (long balls are what you make of them, if you look long as a first option then that’s pretty negative, if you’re picking your moments and stretching the defence though... different story) while Stotty had licence to step into midfield with the ball once or twice as she does so well for Melbourne City. Plus this shape allows width from the wingbacks, both great crossers, and therefore gives freedom to the two supporting forwards to get involved closer to the centre forward. The Ferns alternated between back fours and back three/fives last year and it genuinely feels like the latter is the best option for them, with Sermanni setting up that way in all three post-WC games.

Then in midfield it was Ria Percival in a more defensive role and then Katie Bowen as more of a box to box midfielder. Not always able to get forward in support when we went more direct, naturally, but when play was built up with more patience, as we saw more in the latter stages of the first half, Bowen was able to be a big factor in attacks and even more crucial was her role in the press as well. As the free midfielder she has to strike a balance between holding off and stepping up, a balance she struck almost as well as that penalty she took in the shootout.

And that pressing footy was what changed the course of this match. The Ferns, let’s be honest, don’t have a world class playmaker in their ranks who can rip a defence to shreds with a quick turn or a clever pass. We have a lot of willing players but we’ve gotta be realistic about the technical levels here when compared to the very best in the world. However that doesn’t mean sitting back and being passive, nah the complete opposite mate. It means being aggressive and disruptive. It means breaking up what the other team wants to do and then feeding amidst the chaos. Our defensive structure frustrated them for most of this game, it was only once we were forced to change because of the red card that they found a way back in (although yeah we were already creaking a bit). And going forwards our first two good chances both came from turning the ball over in high positions and hitting them in transition, Olivia Chance having a shot cleared almost off the line after the keeper had collided with Hannah Wilkinson and then Wilkie herself having one blocked brilliantly by a scrambling defender. It’s that timely pressing coming through which we didn’t really see much of at the World Cup. So important.

A major reason why it wasn’t evident at the World Cup was because of the shape we played there. Here we had a front three, arranged in a triangle. At the World Cup it was more of the two strikers and a number ten thing going on (inverted triangle). But having Wilkinson back to full fitness gives us an actual target player up front, someone with physical presence. Then Olivia Chance and Betsy Hassett were picked to play wide and beneath her.

The key here is in how high up the park those two wingers/playmakers are willing to hold. The fact is we’ve gotta gamble to score goals so they can’t be playing in line with the midfielders, they really need to be up there supporting Wilkinson who can’t be trying to do it all herself. And for the most part that’s what they did. Olivia Chance in particular is ideal for that role, she always seems to make things happen. Great at the World Cup despite being without a club and short on fitness and is now having a quality season for Bristol City, albeit playing deeper. She was just breaking through at Everton when she did her knee so to see her picking up where she left off... Liv Chance’s development into a key player could be one of the wildcard factors for the Ferns. Apparently an excellent finisher too judging by her goal.

That’s the other part of this conundrum... even if the Ferns create a bundle of shots, they still need to have the ability to put them away. Hannah Wilkinson was probably guilty of not making the most of a couple good ones herself, particularly that one that hit the post in the second half which would’ve made it 2-0 and probably sealed a much more comfortable win. But Chance took her chance so well. It looked like a heavy touch might bring the keeper into play yet it was just right and she chipped it into the roof of the net on the angle.

The goal had a lot to do with an excellent pass from Hassett, as well as some tenacious work from Ali Riley earlier in clearing out the left side of the pitch. A silky run sandwiched by two crunching tackles had completely disrupted (there’s that word again) the Belgian formation on that side and led directly to the space Chance had to run into. Ali Riley bulldozing down the obstacles. A captain leading by example there.

This is only the first step, we have to remember that. It was promising and the team definitely moved in the right direction here but the problem was that we don’t score enough goals plural, not that we don’t score enough goal. One banger still leaves a game in the balance, you can’t say you’re in control unless you’re up by a spare couple and insured against that one fluke/mistake. The Ferns need to get to where they’re capable of scoring multiple times per game, a second goal and the Ferns woulda won this in normal time.

That didn’t happen, although they had the shots to possibly do so and we for sure saw more signs of how they’re planning to make it happen in the future. The Ferns want to be winning games at major competitions. Belgium weren’t at the World Cup so to be beating teams that were... we surely gotta be beating Belgium. I’m still counting that as a draw despite the penalties and this will be the easiest game we face at the Algarve Cup but it’s progress. Progress is good. Progress is what we wanna see.

Also a word for Daisy Cleverley who had a sneaky impressive impact as a sub, making a couple important defensive interventions and then also stringing together a few passes. She’s still at university in the States and has mostly only featured sporadically off the bench for the Ferns but she was also the one who held her nerve to score the winning penalty, followed by a cheeky fist pump before celebrating with the team. We’ve got a few promising midfielders in the pipeline and she’s one of the very best of them, pretty sure 2020 is her last year of uni too so she might even have a shot at getting drafted into the NWSL next year, dunno.

And then there’s this...

Wow, okay. Wouldn’t say it’s overly surprising because when I went through the forwards for the squad write-up she was the only one who I couldn’t say was in a better situation now than prior to the World Cup. It was fairly clear that she wasn’t gonna play beyond the Olympics and it’s a bit of a sad one that she’s pulled stumps before that but also with those other forwards all improving their cases she only really shaped as an option off the bench. Which she’s done each of the three games since that WC.

This was her 100th cap though, the eighth New Zealander to achieve that number, and having also dispatched a lovely penalty in the shootout it does make it a sweet note to go out on. Shout out to Greggy. An outstanding career which took her to three World Cups and two Olympics as well as scoring 34 times in 100 international caps (not to mention a club career which took her to Germany, England, and Japan). And that was only the beginnings, as her work with FIFPro and Sky Sport make clear.

The last thing to note is that this is a tournament. A friendly tournament but still one which involves seven quality European nations and the Ferns are into the semi-finals thanks to this shootout victory... where they’ll face Italy who knocked out Portugal with a 95th minute penalty, coming from 1-0 down at HT to win 2-1. After that we’ll play either Germany or Norway depending on who wins and loses in the respective games. This is real deal opposition with actual context to it. Might as well take it as serious as we can. The semis will take place on Sunday morning NZT. See ya then.

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