Progress doesn’t happen on a steady scale. The evidence of deeper improvements aren’t always obvious as they happen. Following on from the Footy Ferns looking mostly pretty good in the shootout win over Belgium they then had to face an Italian side that had made the quarter-finals of the World Cup last year. And things did not go so well. The Belgian game was messy too but against a better opposition the Ferns were punished for the kind of things that they got away with in that first match. Italy aren’t quite in that top tier of women’s footy, they’re more of an emerging force. But coming from a nation with the footballing power and resource that they have... it’s teams like Italy that are making this so much tougher for the Ferns. We’re already trying to play catch up and here they are raising the standard of the women’s game quicker than we have the capabilities to match.

But that’s alright, we’ve just gotta find different ways to do this. That’s what this Algarve Cup tour is all about. Tom Sermanni and the lasses are out there refining and adapting the way they play in order to find paths to success against teams whose structures and finances mean they get to skip these steps. And despite a pretty rank 3-0 defeat here this was far from a setback for the Ferns. They made errors and they were punished brutally for those errors. That’s the first lesson we have to learn from these games, a lesson that always needs relearning every now and then. But there were positive signs to that performance too... which we’ll get to once we’ve dealt with the dumb stuff.

When you’re a team that struggles to score goals, a team that is working hard to create more chances and a team that on top of that also isn’t really stacked with the best finishers... the last thing you can afford to do is be wasting the free ones. Just before the break Annalie Longo won a penalty. It was excellent work from the Melbourne Victory midfielder, putting veteran Fiorentina fullback and two-time Serie A player of the year Alia Guagni on her arse with a couple sharp swivel turns before the ball caught her hand. No doubter of a spottie... except that a team which scored seven out of eight in a shootout a few days earlier couldn’t capitalise. Rosie White took the kick and drove it firmly but placed it poorly, letting Katja Schroffenegger make a comfortable save. Sometimes the keeper just guesses the right way and makes an outstanding stop, nothing really you can do about that. But this wasn’t one of those. White didn’t hit it as well as she should’ve and instead of going into the sheds at 1-1 it was still 1-0 to Italy with the Ferns downhearted.

Then you chuck in the way they conceded the first goal and it was even worse. Backup keeper Anna Leat is without doubt one of the most talented emerging footy players coming out of Aotearoa but her fourth cap (and second start) will not be one of her favourites. A couple of times she looked shaky with the ball at her feet and then twice she fumbled in the lead up to the first goal. First when she couldn’t hold on to the ball as she slid across the goal-line (way outside the posts, mind) to try and gather a loose ball and thus allowed the play to continue. Then when it was eventually swung in deep to the far post she and defender Steph Skilton both went for the same ball and neither got it, hence Cristiana Girelli could poke it into an empty net.

The second goal wasn’t much better. It wasn’t until the 56th minute that they scored again but it was another avoidable one. Meikayla Moore couldn’t get to an awkward ball down the line although that wasn’t nearly as bad as Skilton slipping over at the crucial moment to let Barbara Bonansea score. Even accounting for the slip it didn’t make sense why the right centreback was defending outside the near post on the left side. We had a back three yet even wingback CJ Bott was on that side of the field, with an open player running in behind her. It came about from scrambled play so everybody’s just trying to cover for everybody else but five defenders oughta cover a little more ground than this...

Granted, Skilton doesn’t slip over and she probably heads it to safety and nobody cares. Football’s funny like that.

At least the third goal came about from some quality attacking footy. Stefania Tarenzi put the finishing touch upon it to ensure that each of Italy’s starting front three had a goal (while none of ours even had a shot on target from open play) but it was the dummy-flick from Bonansea that really made it. A little moment of genius taking out two defenders and putting a teammate into space in the penalty area all with only the slightest of touches. Bellissima!

Other than the penalty the Ferns didn’t really look like scoring. A few long range efforts weren’t bad but the closest they came were a pair of second half crosses that almost floated in accidentally – one from each side. Even NZ Football’s match report struggled to spin it in the positive sense, instead opting for the whole brevity thing. It was a pretty comprehensive defeat at the hands of a much better opponent. That’s sorta the way it goes.

But it wasn’t as bad as it seems and it certainly wasn’t a step backwards from the Belgium game. You’ve gotta remember that the Ferns did rotate a few players and our depth isn’t on par with Italy’s, that’s for sure. We had an 18 year old backup keeper starting and she was at least partly to blame for the opening goal. She also made two outstanding saves in the second half by the way so it wasn’t a complete write-off for her and she’ll learn plenty about herself after probably the highest standard game she’s player in her career so far. No dramas there.

Similarly Steph Skilton’s missed header for the first goal and her slip for the second exposed her team but she’s our fifth, maybe sixth choice CB. Abby Erceg would have been starting instead of her if the green card process in the USA was simpler (I just rewatched that episode of the What We Do In The Shadows telly show where the dude tries to become a US citizen the other night, good laughs). Even still, Claudia Bunge started ahead Skilton in all three previous Ferns games but was suspended after her red card vs Belgium and Anna Green played at the World Cup whenever the Ferns were in a back three but has missed the two tours since with injury. The Ferns are not a team that has the luxury of being able to dip into their depth pool without it having an effect on their chances of getting a good result. Not everybody is at this level yet and this is where that experience is gained.

Avoidable mistakes, backup players, and a missed penalty. Count that into your margin for error and it’s not quite as bad. Plus it was a much better team they were facing. The Ferns were still out there trying to lead the opportunistic press against Italy, it’s just that Italy had better and more technically gifted defenders who were able to pass their way through the pressure each time. They were really bloody good. They also didn’t overcommit or get dragged out of position when we had the ball and they dealt with almost everything that made it into the penalty area. Similarly they were able to knock the ball around at the other end and create the kind of openings that they didn’t allow us. Put more succinctly... we got beaten by a better team.

That means Norway in the playoff for third and fourth, another top notch European side but one that we were able to beat 1-0 in similar conditions eleven months ago as this team prepared for the World Cup. A team better than Belgium but not as good as Italy. Just the sort of test we need to polish off this foray. Not much needs to change, the formation will stay the same and the game plan will stay the same and hopefully the performance levels lift enough to make them matter. Erin Nayler and Claudia Bunge will probably come straight back in. Nayler definitely will. Then it’s only a matter of who plays in the front three with Hannah Wilkinson.

Olivia Chance and Betsy Hassett started the first game, Rosie White and Annalie Longo started the second. We also saw Jana Radosavlevic, Katie Rood, and Paige Satchell with at least quarter of an hour off the bench vs Italy. In fact the only squad members not to feature yet are the two uncapped locals (Marisa van der Meer & Michaela Robertson) and the third string keeper (Vic Esson). That gives Tom Sermanni plenty to think about... although one player who has to be amongst the starters is Olivia Chance. For the last twelve months she’s looked our busiest and most likely attacking player. She scored the goal against Belgium with exactly the kind of clinical finish this team is desperate for more of and the Ferns were clearly weaker without her on the park against Italy. Who partners her though? Your guess is as good as mine.

The right answer is probably the same as the question: who links up best with Hannah Wilkinson? Wilkie’s the only pure number nine in the squad these days and she’s been given a very prominent role here. With her strength and height, she has attributes that no other Ferns forward can compete with and that no defender really wants to face. But she also hasn’t really been a prolific goal scorer at any stage of her career, still needing to add more precision and consistency to her game. She’s been good and bad in various moments this Algarve Cup. A lot of Footy Ferns hopes rely on Wilkie refining her game in those areas coz, again, there’s nobody else out there right now who can do what she does. Finding the right players to put around her is a big part of that.

Let’s leave it there for now. The Ferns face Norway on Wednesday morning at 5am so maybe catch a couple early nights beforehand or if that sounds too daunting for you then no worries just check back here later on Wednesday for the reaction write-up.

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