The Wellington Phoenix lost again on Monday night. Their third loss of the season and all three of them have been 2-1 defeats in which the Nix seemed to have the majority of the chances yet somehow conspired to emerge pointless. It’s this pesky little habit that they seem to have. Can’t score goals. Not enough finishers amongst the lads. The bloke who was signed to be one hasn’t got it going yet. And just to rub it in the latest loss, against Sydney FC, featured two relatively tricky chances converted by Phoenix Old Boy Kosta Barbarouses who himself was supposed to be in a bit of a rut of form.

This is not a new problem. Ufuk Talay has been in charge of this team for 32 A-League games now and in those 32 games there’s a clear line in the sand between when they score multiple goals and when they don’t...

Uffie’s Nix w/0-1 goals: 17 GM | 1 W | 5 D | 11 L | 8 PTS

Uffie’s Nix w/2+ goals: 15 GM | 12 W | 1 D | 2 L | 37 PTS

Most teams are gonna win more often than they lose when they score multiple goals. But most teams don’t have such a defining contrast between when they bag a second and when they don’t, seemingly regardless of whether it was a good performance or a bad one. Way too many good ones have been spoiled by wasted chances while you only have to look as far as the win against Central Coast two games back to find an example of the opposite... that might’ve been the worst showing of the lot so far yet it earned three very valuable points.

For whatever reason, the Phoenix are not held scoreless too often - just six times in 32 games under Talay’s guidance - but they’ve also only kept oppositions scoreless in 5/32 games and when you don’t keep a lot of clean sheets then you need to be a team that scores at a decent level to balance that out. But as discussed in the last Welly Nix yarn that’s not always been the case with this crew. It’s certainly not been the case so far this season. Have a read of that previous piece first because this is going to be a companion to it and then come back here and have a look at the xG ratings for the Phoenix so far this term (xG in brackets, the other numbers are the scores which you no doubt already figured out)...

• Wellington Phoenix 1 (0.89) – 2 (0.74) Sydney FC

• Wellington Phoenix 1 (1.34) – 1 (1.32) Macarthur

• Wellington Phoenix 1 (2.19) – 2 (1.18) Newcastle Jets

• Wellington Phoenix 2 (0.62) – 1 (2.03) Central Coast

• Wellington Phoenix 1 (1.53) - 2 (0.40) Sydney FC

Sometimes in this writing game you’ve gotta finesse the details a little to fit your argument but these numbers could not be more perfectly vivid. Three times the Nix have lost despite creating much stronger chances yet the one time they got smoked on expected goals was the one game they won. And their draw with Macarthur was almost exactly equal... though you suspect the 1H vs 2H splits would be fascinating as that’s the game in which Alex Rufer was sent off.

Oh and if you don’t know what xG is all about, it’s a weird little stat which measures the likelihood of a goal being scored from the various chances that are created during a game - for example a penalty has fixed rating of 0.76 which reflects the average conversion rate from the spot (around that 76% mark, duh). So take the attempted shots and their values and add them up and that’s arguably how many goals a team should have scored.

A closer look now at that second Sydney FC game...

See all those yellow dots? Try and find the one without a black border, that was the goal. Tiny little bastard way back where. A couple of those big ones occurred inside the first few minutes of the game; even at the time it felt like we’d regret not putting one of those away and... sure enough. Record breaking ‘How Have The Nix Not Scored Yet!?’ territory. Usually it takes around twenty minutes before you feel the need to yell that one out at the telly screen... and don’t even bother looking at the Sydney side of the map if you don’t wanna feel sad.

But complaining about results is needlessly self-aggravating. The proactive thing to do is to try and understand the team’s intentions because as you can see from the xG suggestions it ain’t like the Nix lack for creativity. They’re getting into shooting opportunities. They should be scoring more than they are... that they’re not is a slippery and dissonant reality but let’s look at a few recurring attacking situations that this team gets themselves into in search of that aforementioned understanding.

ULISES DAVILA GOES POP

El Capitan has taken 22 shot attempts this season, which is 10 more than anyone else (Tomer Hemed is next, 12 shots and just 2 on target which is a whole other issue). His constant poppery has a lot to do with how the Wellington Phoenix are taking the most shots per ninety minutes of any team in the league so far... albeit with one of the worst goals per shot ratios.

Basically this situation unfolds as such: Uli gets the ball just outside the area and he kicks it firmly with his left boot.

Simple as that. Sometimes he kicks it along the ground eyeing up those bottom corners, sometimes with a bit of aerial curl as he seeks out the top bins. If there’s a crowd around him, which is usually the case with these kinda shots, then he has the quick feet to be able to shuffle into space to get his shot away and he also has the capability to score from them regularly enough that they’re not the low-percentage hail mary attempts that they would be at the feet of... well, unfortunately most of this squad. Clayton Lewis could probably hit a few. Reno Piscopo has range too. Maybe James McGarry if he were ever that far infield. But otherwise this is strictly Davila territory.

Uli took five shots against Sydney FC and four of them were from outside the area. The last of those took a mean deflection and drifted past the scrambling reaches of Andrew Redmayne for a 93rd minute goal. You can say it was lucky due to the way it went in but a deflected goal is always a possibility from that scenario. Or a floater into the top corner. Or some pinball which leads to a chance for another player. Or it could just be a warning to the defence not to stand off which in turn might lead to room in behind on the next attack. Nothing in the game of football exists in a vacuum.

Here’s a more fluid example of this scenario working wonders...

Trying to find stats/analysis about the A-League is a frustrating journey of finding various scraps from various websites, many of them contradictory (specifically when it comes to what defines a shot: some count that almost-airballed volley, some count that intended cross, some don’t count close blocks at all, etc.), and then trying to piece them together into some kinda sense afterwards. So in that spirit, here’s a muddled together shot chart for Davila (the 23rd shot was a penalty for you nitpickers)...

Ideally you’d want him getting more attempts inside the area as the logic holds that the closer you are to the goal, the more likely you are to score. But a separate logic also suggests that if Davila takes four pops from distance per game then he’s a good chance of scoring at least one of them. So nothing at all wrong with him going bang as often as he does. It’s already led to two goals this term and it’s a relatively easy situation to manufacture too, especially as a backup plan after other attempts break down.

ACTIVATED FULLBACKS

The first goal of this season was a Tim Payne cross to Mirza Muratovic for the finish. You may not have seen it since it wasn’t even broadcast due to Fox Sports being busy pumping cheat codes into their Gameboy Colour but eventually they found a scout cam glimpse of it and what a lovely goal. Sotirio carrying the ball forward and holding it up for Tim Payne to run past him on the overlap, then he whips it back low to Muratovic whose swinging attempt has just enough juice on it to beat the keeper and sneak in.

There’s always that design to get the fullbacks forward. They don’t really play with proper wingers, sometimes Piscopo or Sotorio will get a go there but Davila and Lewis are dual 10s. Hence the width has to come from the defenders, something that they can get away with because of the two pure central mids that Uffie uses. Neither ever really ventures into the attacking penalty area in order to be available against the counter attack (though Alex Rufer’s progressive passing is something I wanna write about at some point too).

You could make the argument that James McGarry has been the team’s best player through five games. Uli Davila would have a righteous word or two to say about that but McGarry has still been excellent, particularly on the attack. He’s quick and strong and has a very tidy technique. Tim Payne isn’t the same athlete (though is a better defender... curious that both are converted fullbacks, as is Louis Fenton and as was Libby Cacace) but Tim Payne also happens to be a brilliant long passer and the idea of moving him to right back was always exciting because of how that’d unlock his crossing.

Not sure that unlocking process has occurred yet, however. Payne has attempted 15 crosses this season with three of them reaching teammates. James McGarry has attempted 12 crosses with all of them picked off by opposition players. Crosses are usually defended, that’s the way they go, but that’s still an annoyingly low conversion rate. Particularly for Tomer Hemed whose best attribute as a striker is how good he is in the air when given the chance to attack those deliveries into the area.

But the Phoenix lately have tended away from the overlaps. Check out the heat map for the most recent game against Sydney for McGarry and Payne...

Attacking from right to left. See the big puddles in the ten metres or so before the penalty area begins? The fullbacks are mostly posting themselves up underneath the defensive line where they operate as support players. That can still be a handy ploy. Someone like Sotirio might drift over and play a one-two to get himself into the area (an underlapping run... which is even better than the overlap as you’re receiving the ball closer to goal). Davila can pick up the ball from these spots. But it probably also speaks to a bit of low confidence that the Nix aren’t playing patient enough in these areas (or getting out on the break often enough) to get Payne in those deep spots where he can cross with the defence turned around. McGarry’s been a little better at those things and his weaker delivery is balanced out by the fact that he can run at defenders if he’s got a little space and he also has a powerful shot on him. Just gotta see him picking his spots slightly better is all. It’s a work in progress.

But overall there’s a lot to like here. Especially because five games into things we’ve already seen an example from each of these two dudes of the ideal overlapping fullback outcome. Crosses are cool... but cut-backs are the real deal. This right here is the best way to score...

... and both FBs already have an assist from an overlapping cutback. The Muratovic goal and this one. More of this, please.

There’s a ghost in the fullback house and that’s Libby Cacace, who also had a good shot on him, storming forward down the left flank. But you know how many assists Libby had last season to go with his three goals? One. One lonesome assist. He actually didn’t provide a huge amount of end product despite at times feeling like he was the second most important attacking player on the team. That feeling was more to do with his transitional play, in fairness. McGarry may be a direct Cacace replacement but he has to bring his own uniqueness to the role rather than just copying the last bloke. Which he’s been doing. Just don’t expect him to be able making tireless 80 metres sprints on the counter in the 89th minute of games like Libby would. That was unicorn material.

THE FAST BLOKE IN BEHIND

Jaush Sotirio is an easy target sometimes. The dude has missed some bad chances, a trend that was cruelly exposed in the elimination final defeat last season. But he also gets into those positions in the first place with a regularity that nobody else really can for the Nix. When his name shows up in the starting line-up, it’s not a fluke – it’s usually a deliberate plan for Sotirio to exploit high defensive lines and latch onto some of the excellent passers around him. Davila can drop one on a dime. Alex Rufer, same deal. David Ball is a handy facilitator. Even Stefan Marinovic bagged an assist last season following this exact same principle (albeit to Ball, not Sotirio... not that it matters).

Or how about a variation upon a theme from two games ago? The winning goal against Central Coast which includes an absolutely superb finish from Sotirio and a stunner of a ball over the top from Alex Rufer...

One thing that having a running threat beyond the line does is it keeps the oppo from encroaching upon our midfield, clearing space for someone like Uli Davila to operate. If everybody plays short all the time then the game just gets condensed and there’s no way out. Think of it like the way they talk about spacing in basketball. Plus also if you can thread the defensive line with an accurate pass then that’s an instant goal-scoring chance. Soritio is a great runner. He’s fast and he’s deceptive, plus he times his movements well with only 15 offsides from 28 games for the club which is pretty useful for someone tasked with making these specific defence-stretching jaunts.

The downside is that this strategy is match-up dependant. It’s not too hard for a defender to drop off a few steps and buy themselves protection if they know what’s coming, while any team that naturally plays deep is reducing the space in which any of this can take place. Would be interesting to see if there’s any correlation between Sotirio starting against back threes or back fours... the threes often leave more space in the channels to attack whenever the wingbacks venture too far forward.

JS also happens to be out injured at the moment so we might not see too much of this plan over the next month. David Ball is a very mobile forward, buzzing around the focal point of Tomer Hemed (who has not been a focal point at all yet), but he’s not especially fast. He’s more about touches in the penalty area. Get him those and he’ll do things. Bally is tricky, he’s a good finisher up close, he has a sharp drop of the shoulder to take him past close markers. In keeping with his reputation as a former Puskas Award nominee though, David Ball is a scorer of great goals rather than a great goal-scorer. But he did have as many assists as he did goals last season – throwback to that point about his facilitation prowess.

COUNTER ATTACKS & TRANSITIONS

This one’s harder to talk about than the others because it’s not as specific. But transitional play (aka the moments before the defence can get set after possession is lost, more or less) is such a major part of modern footy. Breaking down an organised defence is really bloody hard... getting at them when guys are out of position however, that’s a tad easier. And the Phoenix are definitely a team that is designed to be able to strike in those spots with midfielders who are very good in the challenge and mobility ahead of them.

Who won the most tackles in the A-League last season? That would be Cameron Devlin, to the surprise of nobody reading this. His swarmingly energetic style of play is a thrill to watch as he harries and hounds his way around the park. He won 45 challenges which was six clear of second place, a huge margin over the course of a whole season. And who was in second place? Mate that was Matti Steinmann.

What’s funky is the Nix as a full squad were one of the lower rating teams in total tackles but that’s because the defence tended to hold back and the strikers don’t press excessively. It’s all about winning those duels in the midfield and while Stienmann is no longer there, you certainly don’t lose a lot with Alex Rufer whose willingness to make progressive passes is also huge for this transitional stuff. Devlin is already up to 16 tackles this season, plus he leads the team in interceptions with 9 of them (he and Steinmann both ranked top-11 in interceptions as well). Rufer’s not been as flash this campaign with 4 tackles won and 6 interceptions but remember he’s played a game and a half less than most because of that red card.

Then once the ball is won it’s all about either the fast bloke in behind strategy with the quick-trigger pass, if that happens to be on, or usually it’s a swift but unhurried flow of passes as players rush forward and most times that centres around Ulises Davila - whose deceptive strength on the ball and close control make him so good at rolling out of broken play chaos and into green pastures ahead. Plus he hits a mean through ball. It sometimes unfolds a little slow if he’s having to dribble it twenty metres rather than letting the ball do the work (as the coaches say) but these are unstructured scenarios where players aren’t always going to be where you want them to be. Fullbacks can’t already have made that sprint up the line when a second ago they were hovering on the edge of a flat back four in defensive mode. Davila is the best bloke in this team at improvising based on what the situation offers so you want him on the ball making those decisions. He seems to be the best at a lot of these key attacking traits.

PENALTIES (AND SET PIECES?)

We’re starting to get speculative here and that’s not the point of this article... but you know what? Penalties are a legit avenue to a goal and in Ulises Davila the Nix have a very good taker who has scored 6/7 spotties for the club.

No team won more penalties in 2019-20 than the Phoenix did (seven of them, Reno Piscopo scoring the one that Davila didn’t take). That could be coincidence. It could also be evidence that this is a team that spends a decent amount of time around the opposition penalty area. It’s the same concept as giving Davila licence to shoot from distance: every now and then he’s gonna score one. And if you keep defenders on their heels around the part of the field where penalties are won then every now and then you’re gonna win a penalty.

Other set pieces have not been so forthcoming. Davila and Piscopo have free kick abilities. You can add Clayton Lewis to that list this season too. The three of them also whip in a decent corner kick, as does Alex Rufer and Tim Payne could probably get in on that action as well. As for what comes after the delivery, they used to like posting Steven Taylor up at the far post to either head it back across or to try and score but without him there isn’t an obvious main target. Luke DeVere gets amongst it sometimes. Tomer Hemed should be part of it. Corner kicks aren’t an aspect where the Welly Nix have had much success in recent times but they do win a lot of them so it’s a familiar situation. And there have been hints, just hints, of the fellas being able to mix things up from those areas. Here’s a routine from the most recent game, three hombres run near post, three hombres run far post...

Anyway, there you go. A few situations from which the Welly Nix do most of their damage. Nobody can accuse them of lacking a plan, just as nobody can accuse them of lacking creativity. But they can be accused of wastefulness with the final shot and again it feels like the simplest solution has to be getting Tomer Hemed quickly adapted into this team... which could also mean having to mould some of these strategies to better incorporate his strengths. It’s at least easier to watch a team struggle at something when you can see what they’re trying to achieve though. Now we return to patiently awaiting the coming of the goals.

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