The draw for the 2020 Olympic football tournaments (which, like the rest of the Olympics, are happening in 2021) were held on Wednesday night and it was a mixed bag for kiwi fans. The fellas got an outstanding draw, about as good as they could have hoped for. The ladies meanwhile... yeah not so flash. It was never going to be nice given the way the draw was structured but USA, Sweden, and Australia make for some ruthless opposition.

You’ve got the World Champions, obviously. Who we’ve now been drawn against the USA in three of our four Olympic campaigns. Lost 2-0 to them in 2016, lost 4-0 in 2008. Then there’s Sweden who were the third-placed finishers at the 2019 World Cup. They’re maybe a little more vulnerable than they have been in the past with some ageing senior players but you can say the same thing about us and that’s without Sweden’s history of going deep in major tournaments. And before them we’ll be playing our 2023 World Cup co-hosts Australia in the first game. Aussie are under similar pressure to us to finally exceed expectations at one of these tournaments (different expectations, granted). Their recent form has been awful, losing 5-2 to Germany and 5-0 to the Netherlands in the last international window... but with the top third-placed finishers qualifying for the quarters one solid win will do the trick and they’ll be targeting the NZ game for exactly that.

Other than Australia, who dropped below Canada with the latest rankings, the Football Ferns have drawn the highest ranked team from each pot. Including themselves. Luckily FIFA rankings, say it with me for the hundredth time, are a meaningless waste of time (the Ferns are 22nd by the way, staying exactly where they were despite not playing for a year – one place behind Austria, one ahead of Scotland). The other thing that counted against us is that there are only 12 teams in the women’s competition. Meaning that while Aotearoa always qualifies via our convenient dominance of the Oceania region, the only other relative minnows who’ll join us are the lone African representatives Zambia and the second South American reps Chile, who beat Cameroon in a playoff to qualify. Both were in the same pot as NZ for the draw meaning we couldn’t play them. The other nine teams are all ranked in the top 14 in the world and the pots were done with specific regard to those rankings. Very rude.

The group you want to be in is usually the hosts’ group (especially at the next World Cup). They’re always given a top seed to help them out, whereas Japan would otherwise have been in pot three. If we’d have gotten ‘lucky’ like that then we’d be playing Japan, Great Britain, and Canada. The other group offered Netherlands, Brazil, and China. There are no right answers here. It was always gonna be an intimidating mountain to climb. We’ll just have to give Australia a bit of Trans-Tasman violence and see if we can’t catch Sweden on a sleepy day. As for those pesky Americans, here are our past results against the United States of America National Women’s Team:

• Lost 5-0 – March 2019 (Friendly)

• Lost 5-0 – September 2017 (Friendly)

• Lost 3-1 – September 2017 (Friendly)

• Lost 2-0 – August 2016 (Olympic Games)

• Lost 4-0 – April 2015 (Friendly)

• Drew 1-1 – October 2013 (Friendly)

• Lost 4-1 – October 2013 (Friendly)

• Lost 2-0 – August 2012 (Olympic Games)

• Lost 2-1 – February 2012 (Friendly)

Yikes... there’ll be a lot of back foot defending in that one no matter how it goes. It’s awkward for New Zealand because we get the closest thing to a free ticket to these things but those major tournament opportunities don’t do anywhere near enough to keep us improving at the pace that those European nations or America are able to do as much greater professionalism filters into the sport from the top down. That’s the way these things tend to go. There were seven European teams and the USA in the quarter-finals of that World Cup – that wasn’t a coincidence. But that’s not a bad thing... it’s actually brilliant. Top clubs are investing in female football. Opportunities arise. We just need more kiwi ballers getting amongst that culture, training every day at a high level, similar to the rush of Aussie players signing in England over the last twelve months.

Since we’re talking about players now, what’s that squad gonna look like? Actually there’s not much to think about. It’ll be mostly the same as the group that went to the World Cup in 2019, also under Tom Sermanni’s guidance, with all the same key players and whatnot. The only real drama is that the squad has to be cut from 23 to 18 players. Having said that, there have been a handful of retirements since that tournament: Emma Kete, Sarah Gregorius, Katie Duncan, and Steph Skilton. Take those four out plus drop the third goalkeeper and there you go. Job done.

Eh, not quite. Because that World Cup didn’t exactly go too well. The Ferns didn’t win a game. They only scored one goal and it was an own goal with ten minutes left in their third game. And two of those retirements were strikers so even more reason to maybe wanna mix it up. Plus of course the Ferns will obviously be unable to call upon the services of Rebekah Stott as she continues her cancer treatment, taking out one of the team’s very best players. A huge blow for a team who can’t really afford too many set-backs if they’re going to do anything in Tokyo. Best wishes to Stotty who is doing some astounding things for charity these days, finding ways to channel a terrifying personal situation into something positive. Brilliant from her.

Luckily there’s a player who wasn’t at the World Cup who can come straight back into Stott’s starting position. Injury on the eve of the World Cup meant Meikayla Moore had to withdraw from the squad, replaced out of the blue by Nicole Stratford. Fairly easy to slip the one they call Mouse back in there at centre-back and we shouldn’t lose too much – Stott and Moore are different styles of defenders but as far as replacements go, Moore’s been doing excellent things for Liverpool in the English second tier already having locked in a starting spot and she’s even scored a couple goals so can’t complain.

Three players have debuted since the 2019 WC in France. Claudia Bunge is one of those and she’ll surely be in the squad after a few excellent performances for the Fernies followed by a breakout W-League campaign with the title-winning Melbourne Victory. She could potentially even be a starter if Sermanni continues on with a back three formation... hard to know what to expect when the team hasn’t played for over a year and in all likelihood won’t play before they get to Tokyo.

The other debutants have been Stratford, who had a brief pro stint in Germany and was very good at right back for Northern in the last NZ Prem season, as well as Jana Radosavljevic. Rado’s since moved to Werder Bremen in the German Bundesliga where she features in most games, sometimes off the bench and sometimes starting. Usually as a wide player (wingback or winger) which isn’t quite the central playmaker she was in the second tier with Cloppenburg or which the Ferns would prefer her to be... but close enough. Hard to ignore someone playing at that level when you’re short on attacking options already. Speaking of, Katie Rood’s been in both post-WC squads after missing that one. Playing with Lewes at the same level as Meikayla Moore’s at. She’d have to be high in consideration also.

The problem here is that despite pushing the Olympics back a year it still feels like a continuation of the last World Cup cycle. There hasn’t been enough time for a lot of the best up and coming players to establish themselves... the delayed year wasn’t quite a year of development, you know? In many places women’s football was just put on hold. Careers hit the pause button while the sport simmered on the backburner. By the next World Cup we should have quite a few fascinating options on the way from that old U17 team that did so well a couple years back, including some desperately needed attackers - such as the likes of Gabi Rennie and Kelli Brown. But this one is probably too soon for them and the 18-player squad doesn’t really leave room for bolter selections. You never know though, Sermanni’s not been averse to that approach in the past.

Malia Steinmentz had a good W-League campaign with Perth. She’s featured for Sermanni in the past but hasn’t been a part of the last five squads. Liz Anton was similarly impressive, perhaps even more so, for the Glory and she’s also been a part of extended squads in the past. The W-League did wonders across the board to be fair. The form of Annalie Longo and Olivia Chance will be a huge boost to Sermanni and the team, while Paige Satchell definitely took some (speedy) strides towards becoming the player Sermanni obviously wants her to be. Plus just on a wider scope we’ve got players like Hannah Wilkinson and Liv Chance fully fit who were coming back from serious injuries when the WC came along. And Rosie White is back in the pro ranks too which wasn’t the case in 2019. There is some trickiness with the Olympics happening in the middle of the NWSL season... but the precedent of all the American players leaving should clear the way for Abby Erceg, Katie Bowen, Ali Riley, and Rosie White.

Plenty of reason to think the same players can perform better this time around although the dramas with the lack of games/preparation puts an asterisk on all that. One position that’ll be extremely funky is the goal-keeping spot. Erin Nayler has been the incumbent for ages but she’s hardly had a minute of footy for Reading this season – her only appearance came in a WSL Cup group stage game – so she’s likely to hit up the Olympics having not played a competitive game for eight and a half months. In the meantime Vic Esson just had a superb season in Norway with Avaldsnes. Lily Alfeld was pulling off super save after super save in the W-League with Perth. Anna Leat is back on the scene too. Not to mention 2020 Women’s Premiership MVP Georgia Candy or World Cup third-stringer Nadia Olla. From all of those options... Tom Sermanni can only pick two.

Here’s a guess as to what the squad will look like:

GK – Erin Nayler, Vic Esson

DEF – Ali Riley, Abby Erceg, Meikayla Moore, CJ Bott, Claudia Bunge, Liz Anton

MID – Ria Percival, Katie Bowen, Olivia Chance, Annalie Longo, Betsy Hassett, Daisy Cleverley

FWD – Hannah Wilkinson, Rosie White, Paige Satchell, Jana Radosavljevic

RESERVES – Anna Leat, Anna Green, Malia Steinmetz, Katie Rood

The last name in each of the four positions is up for grabs. There are about thirteen players who absolutely pick themselves and the rest sorta depends on form and fitness and, with such a small squad, what formation the coach is planning on and thus which areas of the park need the most depth.

It’s a handy thing that a lot of our players are quite versatile. Katie Bowen plays right back at club level. Ria Percival can excel at fullback too, though you’d prefer that tenacity in the midfield. Players like Annalie Longo and Olivia Chance are best as attacking mids but can play deeper. Meikayla Moore has played fullback and midfield at times. Rosie White can play in midfield, up front, or out wide. Jana Radosavljevic covers wingback and up front. CJ Bott can play either side. Might need a fair bit of that versatility come Tokyo 2020/21, because old mate Ryan Nelsen didn’t do us any favours with the draw.

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