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Welly Nix: Assessing How Things Are Looking For Next Season

The saying goes that no sooner does one season end than the next one begins and that’s sure enough true for players. The player’s mentality is to keep pushing until the final whistle and then it’s on to the next. But for teams and coaches it’s a little different as you’ve gotta juggle the present and the future (sometimes even the past), because no matter how good you might be now there’s always the aim to get better. Sometimes the present is sacrificed entirely for the sake of the future - such is the case with rebuilding teams. It’s all a balancing act.

Right now the Wellington Phoenix are slightly on the wrong side of probability in trying to at least match what they achieved the last two seasons and make the A-League finals. Whether they get there or not, that’s too hard to predict right now. A pair of 0-0 draws in the last couple games hasn’t exactly given them the boost they need but with home games in Wellington and Auckland on the horizon there’s still hope with five games remaining. A few outside results have gone the right way lately too. But regardless of how this term ends up they’ve got plenty of work to do if they want keep the band together coz right now only seven players are signed on for next term.

The most recent player to sign a contract extension with the Wellington Phoenix was David Ball. That was about a month after Steven Taylor had opted out to go to India, back in October 2020. Whereas the New Year last season was met with Taylor, Tim Payne, Jaushua Sotirio, and Alex Rufer all signing multi-year extensions... there’s been nada on the mid-season contract announcement front this time. Obviously things have been scrappy with the whole stuck-in-Australia thing and that level of uncertainty isn’t the best environment to be negotiating deals within... though we have been assured that a couple deals have been done behind closed doors and simply not make public yet. Hell, they’ll probably undercut this very article with some re-signing news. We’d be more than due if that did happen.

But before any of that can be sorted there’s the small deal of getting Ufuk Talay to sign on the dotted line himself. His initial two-year tenure is almost up (which alone broke a four-year streak of the Nix having a different week one manager – from Ernie Merrick to Darije Kalezic to Mark Rudan to Uffie himself) but thankfully there seems to be interest from both sides to get that done. Uffie’s building something decent here, something that aligns with what the club hierarchy want to see, and there’s unfinished business with that. Oh and also Tony Popovich has come back to take the Melbourne Victory gig ahead of Ufuk Talay who was further down the wishlist, apparently. So that worked out well.

Plus in a recent media access session he kinda sorta maybe dropped an accidental hint as to where his head is at when he started talking about building for next season in a tense that inferred he’d very much be a part of that. He later added that regarding his own possible extension there were: “a couple of little things that need to be sorted and then we’ll be pretty much done”. Sweet as. That’s what we wanna hear.

Get that sorted and you’d imagine that clears up a big question mark that plenty of players would have. Speaking of those players, here’s how things currently stand contract-wise...

2022-23: Alex Rufer, David Ball, Sam Sutton

2021-22: Jaushua Sotirio, Reno Piscopo, Te Atawhai Hudson-Wihongi, Tim Payne

Off Contract: Ben Waine, Cam Devlin, Louis Fenton, Oli Sail, Stefan Marinovic, Ulises Davila, Clayton Lewis, James McGarry, Joshua Laws, Liam McGing, Luke DeVere, Matt Ridenton, Mirza Muratovic, Tomer Hemed, Charles Lokoli-Ngoy, Steven Taylor

One thing to note is that Reno Piscopo was signed for a transfer fee two years back. He was given a three-year deal at the time with the idea being that they’d have a decent chance of recouping that cash if they sold him on down the line. Well, that would require him either signing a new deal soon or being sold this offseason because otherwise no club is paying for a dude they can just get for free in a few months. The Nix might have decided that they were too optimistic in that dream or they might just think he’s more valuable scoring goals in yellow and black (or Wollongong Red). Whatever the state of affairs is, that was what they had in mind when they bought him so it’s something to consider. Other than that it’s pretty unlikely anyone else is going to get the Sarpreet Singh/Libby Cacace transfer fee treatment and leave mid-contract. But a barrel-load of them might be about to leave on frees.

Talay mentioned in that same virtual press junket that two of the sixteen off-contract players have already signed on the dotted line... your guess is as good as mine as to who they might be but there are a couple folks who you’d imagine it’d be pretty easy to keep around. A few who’d give it the whole: ‘you only had to ask!’ treatment. I’m putting my money on Clayton Lewis and Ben Waine but tell you what let’s rank them. In terms of on-field performance, squad balance, value to the club, and all those things, here’s how I’d prioritise the off-contract players’ re-signing urgency:

  1. Ulises Davila

  2. Steven Taylor

  3. Ben Waine

  4. Cam Devlin

  5. Oli Sail/Stefan Marinovic

  6. Clayton Lewis

  7. James McGarry

  8. Josh Laws

  9. Tomer Hemed

  10. Louis Fenton

  11. Luke DeVere

  12. Mirza Muratovic

  13. Matt Ridenton

  14. Liam McGing

  15. Charles Lokoli-Ngoy

Ulises Davila is a Johnny Warren Medallist candidate and one of the absolute finest imports that the club has ever brought in. Whoever did the scouting work on that deal deserves a huge bonus. After two seasons at the club, Davila still seems to be loving it. He’s had to balance a tricky situation with his family back in Mexico during the pandemic but that’ll get easier as the world beings to open back up again. Nothing to worry about with his age, he’s only just turned 30, and his form has been off the chains this season. He’s not just influential, he’s damn near essential to this team’s best football. If anyone thinks there’s a bigger priority deal to be done then they’re mad. Even considering other imports they could feasibly get, Davila is still probably close enough to the best case scenario they could find elsewhere that trying to trade up on him would be reckless. Lionel Messi ain’t walking through that door. Cristiano Ronaldo ain’t walking through that door. But Ulises Davila is already here.

Steven Taylor has started five games since his return to the club. Two wins and three draws, the Nix conceding just three goals in those matches. The defence was chaotic in the early days now it’s steady in his presence. He’s 35 years old so unlikely we see anything longer than a two year offer, and he might even feel it’s his last chance to cash in elsewhere (which I still kinda think was behind the move to India – after the Nix expressed a need to clear salary off the post-covid books, that is)... but he’s a leader, an organiser, a great teammate, a fan favourite, an excellent defender, and the jet ski life in Wellington goes hard. It was a stark difference with and without him this term so let’s try avoid that comparison next time if we can.

Ben Waine is a little higher than his current status because of the academy grad prestige, plus his potential for growth. Homegrown goal-scorers are a rarity at this club and Waine-o’s only just getting started. Also he’s young and therefore cheap. No brainer there. Same deal with Cam Devlin who has thrived at the club in his two seasons to become one of the better ball-winning midfielders in the comp. He’s a possible Aussie international at this rate... just gotta hope he doesn’t feel that goal is better attained elsewhere. Of all the main targets he feels like the one for whom his personal situation is the most beyond the Phoenix’s control. But hell yeah if he’s keen to stay then they absolutely gotta make that happen.

The goalkeepers are an either/or because obviously you’re only gonna get to keep one of them at this point. Whoever they don’t pick as number one (and you’d imagine Oli Sail is the frontrunner now) is surely gonna want to leave for first choice status elsewhere. If it’s Marinovic on the outer then he’d probably fetch an offer or two from other A-League clubs, plus he did the trial rounds in the UK before coming back to the Nix as well as having experience in Germany and Canada/USA. He spent his last offseason in Germany where his partner lives if that’s any indication too. He should have some options and to be honest it’s better for the national team if all the goalie candidates are playing regularly anyway.

Clayton Lewis has been one of the pleasant surprises of this season. Great passer, solid decision maker, hard worker. He’s also a guy who has had a rocky time of it in the pro ranks in the past and getting him back on board would potentially be one of the simpler negotiations. James McGarry meanwhile is playing off the bench right now so that might be a factor for him, it’s also why he’s dropped down from where he’d have been on this list a few months back, but there’s no doubt that with a little more refining of his defensive instincts he can be one of the better left backs in the A-League. Let’s get this deal done too.

The line between genuine targets and conditional targets is probably below McGarry. From that point up all those guys had better at least have offers coming their way. They might choose to leave anyway, free agents can do what they want and they all have careers ambitions to chase, but the club has gotta be fighting to retain them. Below that line it’s all about whether things align. For example if Steven Taylor – so far with no offers on the table and he has been rumoured to return to India, though that could all be sneaky negotiation tactics from both sides – doesn’t return then Laws, DeVere, and McGing come into sharper focus. Hence: alignment.

Although maybe Josh Laws is a step above that category. They might not go all in for him since he’s not really first choice but as a left footed defensive option with a history in the midfield he’s got plenty to offer. Tomer Hemed meanwhile... it’s no secret that he’s struggled to assimilate into the team’s style of play. His game does not fit with the lads around him. But after a slow start and some injuries you have to be fair and say he’s doing what he was signed to do: he’s scoring goals. Only Davila and Waine have more than him. They can probably get better performances out of an import with a more suitable skill set but the Phoenix can also do a lot worse so he slides in next.

Already mentioned McGing and DeVere, two tidy defenders with asterisks about them. McGing’s youth and some promising showings mid-season make him a low risk addition. With DeVere it’s all about how they feel about him physically – his injury situation is getting close to red flag status. Remember both guys were late to re-sign for this season and family situations will play a part. Mirza Muratovic is the third youngest bloke in the squad behind only Waine and Sutton. He’s scored twice. He can play across the front-line. No dramas if they let him go but he’s a useful depth option.

Which is about as much as you can say about Charles Lokoli-Ngoy who looks quick and strong but hasn’t offered anything of substance yet in his sparse subs appearances. Meanwhile Matt Ridenton hasn’t even played in any of the past 11 matches. He got some minutes early on after conveniently falling back into the lap of the only A-League team where he counts as a local player and I reckon I probably rate him more than most... but let’s be honest it doesn’t look like Uffie’s got much use for him right now, not since Clayton Lewis rebranded as a CM.

Leaving us with Louis Fenton. The current squadie with by far the most appearances for the club and yet after making his debut way back in 2012 it’s still not entirely clear if he’s hit his ceiling as a player. It could be as simple as levelling up as a crosser of the ball, that might be all it takes to lock him down. But he’s never been a natural defender and his tendency to take the safe option in attack can be frustrating. There have been some signs more recently that he’s gaining more confidence in those areas but, I mean, 133 games into his A-League career it’s weird to still be talking about him like a project player. This one could go either way.

And now we await the barrage of #PhoenixAnnouncements...

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