With one game left in their season, the Wellington Phoenix are stuck watching other games. Macarthur did them dirty on Monday night with a 2-1 win over Western United although they did have to really cling on there at the end thanks largely to the wizardry of Alessandro Diamanti. Wasn’t to be though and if other results don’t go right for the Nix then they could be eliminated from finals contention even before they kick off against Macarthur on Friday night. It could go the opposite way too... but this piece isn’t about trying to keep up with the shifting landscapes of finals contention.

This piece is about context. If the Phoenix miss out of the finals, that missed penalty by Ulises Davila is going to echo painfully in many minds... but we all know that the real problem was their form in the early portions of the season. It just took them too long to settle into things – one win from the first eight games, only five points, that’s the real killer here. That’s who shot Mr Burns.

Whatever happens over the next week, the fact is they were always battling from behind in this finals quest. And, yes, if they’d had more than two home games this season then they’d almost certainly be preparing for a third-straight finals appearance already but that’s not the way it proved to be, the Nix losing four of their first five “home” games amidst that poor start.

You can split this season almost perfectly into a tidy three-act structure if you wanted to - which would be cool if it really were a script because in a proper Hollywood sports film situation we could relax knowing that this last week is all just manufactured suspense before the inevitable triumph at the end. But whatever your ideas are on the concept of fate, they probably don’t stretch as far as to include the results of Australian football. In a storytelling sense, the struggles of the first and second acts are all designed to be overcome. There’s a formula at work. In a footballing reality the games in the first half of a league season are worth the same amount of points as the ones at the end of it and thus the points you drop are points you cannot get back. That’s the drama. That’s pretty clearly where the Phoenix went wrong, regardless of how it ends – and hey maybe we’ll still get that special Hollywood ending, who bloody knows.

ACT I – The Struggle

Lost 2-1 vs Sydney FC (H), Drew 1-1 vs Macarthur (A), Lost 2-1 vs Newcastle Jets (H), Won 2-1 vs Central Coast Mariners (A), Lost 2-1 to Sydney FC (A), Lost 2-0 to Central Coast Mariners (H), Drew 2-2 vs Western Sydney Wanderers (H), Lost 2-0 to Melbourne Victory (A)

8 GAMES | 1W-2D-5L | 8 GF | 14 GA | -6 GD | 5 PTS

It’s a wee bit eerie to look back at the starting teams from the first few weeks of the season and see how much has changed since then. Eerie as well as telling, gotta say. Stefan Marinovic in goal with a back four of Tim Payne and James McGarry out wide to flank Josh Laws and Luke DeVere in the middle. That was the way that the team began in each of their first six games. These days only Tim Payne is still starting regularly and it’s in a different position.

And it goes further than that too. Alex Rufer was getting midfield starts then. Clayton Lewis was playing as an attacker. Reno Piscopo was injured for the first four. Ben Waine was nowhere to be seen (only two subs apps for 24 total mins in the first six matches). Tomer Hemed played ninety once before getting injured in the fifth match.

Ufuk Talay is a man who rides the hot hand. He’d either be an amazing or a terrible poker player for that reason. Marinovic didn’t necessarily do anything wrong but when he was dropped for Oli Sail in the seventh game it led to some ripping form from Sail and Talay simply didn’t see any reason to drop him from that point onwards. Now Marinovic is taking up a deal in Israel while Sail has re-signed for two more years, there you go.

Yet most of the chopping and changing of that time wasn’t because of form: it was because of injuries. Already mentioned that Piscopo missed the first month, as well as Tomer Hemed’s disrupted adapting period (crazy to think the player we saw then is now the team’s top scorer with 10 goals – goes to show you can’t be too quick to judge overseas players, that settling in period is a real thing). Cameron Devlin had a spell where he was in and out. Jaushua Sotirio missed six straight at one point. Josh Laws had a hobble or two – though has only missed one matchday squad all season and it wasn’t due to injury. And of course Luke DeVere’s knee injury in game six effectively ruled him out for the rest of the season. Then chuck in red cards for Alex Rufer (debatable decision) and David Ball (completely correct decision) and their subsequent suspensions and it’s not a defining excuse but the aforementioned chopping and changing definitely hampered what’s already a pretty light and pretty young squad.

There were calls that the manager ought to be a little more flexible with his formation instead of just his players but you’ve gotta at least keep something consistent. The Nix were the better team in a lot of those losses but had trouble getting the ball into the net – a result of some sketchy finishers and a lack of confidence across the board. There was this weird trend where the team with the better xG numbers was losing whenever the Phoenix played... a trend they balanced out midway through but that was the story of the early days.

The funky thing is it always felt like they’d figure things out. They were playing too well to be stuck competing for the wooden spoon and sure enough, after five points from eight games, never conceding more than twice but without a single clean sheet, they started to hit on some decent combinations with the likes of Ben Waine, Oli Sail, Clayton Lewis (in a more defensive role), and Tim Payne (in central defence) thrust into prominence. Which brings us to Act II.

ACT II – The Search

Won 2-0 vs Newcastle Jets (A), Won 3-0 vs Perth Glory (H), Lost 4-3 vs Western Sydney Wanderers (A), Drew 1-1 vs Brisbane Roar (H), Won 4-1 vs Melbourne Victory (H), Lost 1-0 vs Macarthur (H), Lost 3-2 vs Melbourne City (H)

7 GAMES | 3W-1D-3L | 15 GF | 10 GA | +5 GD | 10 PTS

There’s no clean cut between one and two, they overlap a little. You could argue that the 2-2 draw with Western Sydney in Oli Sail’s first game was the trigger point – ignoring that the Rudy Gestede inspired defeat straight after was probably the nadir of the campaign - or you could say, as we’re doing here, that it came two matches later when the Nix beat Newcastle 2-0 and then chased that with a 3-0 victory against Perth. First couple clean sheets of the campaign, Ben Waine scoring in both of them. Back to back wins for the first time since before lockdown. Outstanding stuff... but it was still The Search because while this version of the Nix had been through their darkest issues, they hadn’t yet found consistency.

Which is why they lost 4-3 in the following game, a bonkers outing against Western Sydney (with Tomer Hemed’s disallowed goal right at the end). They’d smoke Melbourne Victory not too long after but then single-goal defeats against Macarthur and Melbourne City kept them from rising up the ladder to where they wanted to be. It was enough to keep them from tumbling out of contention but it wasn’t enough for them to do much rising either. They needed a sustained run of points to overcome The Struggle. The longer they left it, the more likely they were to run out of time.

Reno Piscopo got injured again around then, clearly not ideal. But something else happened in that Victory game: Steven Taylor made his return. Part of The Search was trying to find a defensive combination that worked as stupid errors at the back (some individual, some collective) continually cost this team goals. James McGarry would lose his starting gig as soon as Act III started, youngster Sam Sutton impressing in his place, while that Taylor/Payne pairing in the middle eventually became the obvious choice.

Naturally, there was one more stutter along the way as a minor injury setback meant that Taylor only played 9 minutes of those MAC/MCY defeats. Once he returned though, that’s when Act III truly begins and the Phoenix’s last-ditch push for the finals commenced.

ACT III – The Resurgence

Won 3-2 vs Western United (H), Won 3-1 vs Perth Glory (A), Drew 1-1 vs Western United (A), Won 2-1 vs Adelaide United (H), Drew 0-0 vs Brisbane Roar (A), Drew 0-0 vs Adelaide United (A), Drew 2-2 vs Melbourne City (A), Won 3-0 vs Western United (H), Won 2-1 vs Western Sydney Wanderers (A), Drew 2-2 vs Perth Glory (H)

10 GAMES | 5W-5D-0L | 18 GF | 10 GA | +8 GD | 20 PTS

It’s hard to ignore the impact of Steven Taylor when you look at stats like that. Sure, that includes a pair of games in which he was a stoppage time substitute (both wins – coming on to ensure they closed it out) but it also includes the start against Macarthur in which he was subbed within ten minutes. With Stevie T in place, the Nix had that anchoring presence at the back who made everyone better. No need to panic because The Marquis de Long Pins is there to ensure everybody’s in the right position.

That leadership was probably expected of Luke DeVere when things began but he wasn’t able to provide it... and a converted CB like Josh Laws seemed to need that steady hand beside him. Same with Tim Payne whose leadership qualities are pretty clear for all to see at the moment but this was not a position he’d played at this level before. Not in any sustained way (though he did win an NZ Premiership with Eastern Suburbs as a central defender).

It’s a genuinely stark difference between when Taylor has played and when he hasn’t been there – enough to think that the small margins that’ll define whether this team makes the playoffs or not wouldn’t have mattered had he not had his lil sabbatical in India. With Ulises Davila on his way out and Stevie T reportedly begging to stay... it would be a shambles if they didn’t re-sign him. Davila is the better player overall, a creative force in his prime, but we’ve seen this team scoring goals in UD’s absence lately. Taylor is the more essential presence for the squad. He wasn’t atop the re-signing priority power rankings in that article from a few weeks back but suffice to say he would be now (and not only because Davila’s about to leave).

Ten games unbeaten on the trot. Five wins and five draws combining for 20 points. Yes, they ought to have won a couple of those drawn games... but even still that’s two points per contest which over the course of a full season (and 10 games is already 38% of a full season) would give the Phoenix 52 points and have them a decent shot at a minor premiership.

They’ve gotten Tomer Hemed in some sizzling form. Still not the best at combining with those around him – although he’s got a little flair about him when he’s feeling it, a few backheels and such – but his finishing is miles ahead of anyone else in the squad. He’s a beast in the air and the crosses have started to take advantage of that, both from set pieces and open play. Add it all together and he’s scored 10 goals in his last 13 appearances – including hitting the back of the net in each of his last four. Four straight games with a goal is a club record that Ben Waine also equalled earlier in the term. Jeremy Brockie, Roy Krishna, and Ulises Davila have also managed that feat. Hemed can break that record in the final game.

Aside from him it’s not so much that anybody else has emerged fully formed... it’s more that all the little tweaks from across the campaign are now aligning in winning football. Oli Sail has been flawless since he took the gloves. Clayton Lewis goes from strength to strength – his passing abilities were what first made him work in that CM role but now we’re really seeing his work off the ball flourish. Ben Waine is a teenaged striker holding his own physically in a notoriously tough league. Tim Payne looks completely at home in central defence. David Ball has returned to form after a lean patch. The Nix have been getting great contributions from across the squad the last few months, from the expected fellas and from some folks who weren’t even in the picture at the start.

But they may still have left it too late.

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