For what it’s worth, the final game against Sweden was by far the best that the Football Ferns looked all tournament. Considering they’d only had one closed-door friendly match’s worth of preparation in the entire previous sixteen months it probably shouldn’t come as a surprise that they got better with match practice. Yes, Sweden were already through to the next round after a couple wins and they did rotate things a little... but still there was some impressive stuff from the Fernies. Knocking the ball around. Playing in the opposition half. Getting a very useful press going. It was good football.

Then they conceded a sloppy goal. Corner kick after a good Erin Nayler save off Olivia Schough, basically Sweden’s first threat after fifteen quiet minutes, and Anna Anvegård got ahead of Nayler to flick in a header from the delivery. The Ferns responded nicely to that but then Hanna Bennison whipped in a great ball in the 29th min and Madelen Janogy only needed the tiniest glancing touch on it to beat Nayler who again attacked the ball but couldn’t get there – the quality of the delivery into the box basically perfect each time.

So while the remaining hour still featured some bright moments for the NZ team it wasn’t quite the same, Sweden were too good defensively and they were always a high chance of getting a third if they needed it. The Ferns shut out for the first time these Olympics and out we go after three straight defeats. 2-1 against Australia, 6-1 against USA (less said the better about that one, the scoreline blew out late but there was only ever one team in it), and 2-0 to Sweden. All three of those teams making it through to the quarters at our expense.

It was a brutally tough group that, considering our complete lack of preparation, we never really had a chance in. Can’t freak out about results that were entirely expected. Despite what the results suggest, the Ferns were better here than they were at the World Cup. They had more of a goal-threat about them (still nowhere near enough but it’s clearly improved) and were more ambitious about the way they played (again, still too much route one stuff but we’re on the right path). Thing is, there are only 12 teams at the Olympics. It’s the best of the best of the best... with a couple others trying to stay afloat in the deep end. Can’t fault the effort. We’re simply not in the same class as those three opponents.

It’s what comes next that matters now. Take a quick peek towards the horizon and you might be able to make out the silhouette of the 2023 World Cup, the next major tournament on the calendar. Having co-hosting duties means there’ll be no stitch-up draws, we’ll be in the pot as a 1-seed despite the fact that our ranking will suggest a 3-seed at best. That means no USA in our group for starters unless they plummet out of the top six of the rankings which ain’t happening. Dodge that bullet. However as of now we no longer have a coach. This was Tom Sermanni’s last couple weeks in charge. There’s a very big appointment to be made soon by NZF which they’d better not bugger up.

Sermanni came in to steady the ship after the Andreas Heraf debacle and was brilliant for the team in that regard. A safe pair of hands with great experience at the international level and a really well liked bloke to boot. He proved as good as his reputation in all those areas... except it didn’t translate to results on the field. Here’s what he did with New Zealand...

2018

• W 11-0 vs Tonga (ONC)

• W 6-0 vs Cook Islands (ONC)

• W 10-0 vs Fiji (ONC)

• W 8-0 vs New Caledonia (ONC)

• W 8-0 vs Fiji (ONC)

2019

• L 0-2 vs Australia

• W 2-0 vs Argentina

• L 0-2 vs South Korea

• W 1-0 vs Norway

• L 0-5 vs USA

• W 1-0 vs England

• L 0-1 vs Wales

• L 0-1 vs Netherlands (WC)

• L 0-2 vs Canada (WC)

• L 1-2 vs Cameroon (WC)

• L 0-2 vs China

• L 0-3 vs Canada

2020

• D 1-1 vs Belgium (won on pens)

• L 0-3 vs Italy

• L 1-2 vs Norway

2021

• L 1-2 Australia (O)

• L 1-6 vs USA (O)

• L 0-2 vs Sweden (O)

For the most part, we’re talking about a team that beat those they were expected to beat and lost to those they were expected to lose to. But not entirely. The win against England was spectacular, a pre-World Cup game in which Sarah Gregorius scored the only goal as NZ beat England in senior football for the first time ever, men’s or women’s. But then they lost in a really tame performance against Wales and have not won again since. 1 June 2019, more than two years since the last Ferns win (other than a draw against Belgium at the Algarve Cup which they won on penalties – but that was a draw, let’s be honest). Their last 12 games under Sermanni have seen 1 draw and 11 defeats with 5 goals scored and 27 goals conceded. Spanning two major tournaments too.

How much of that is the coach’s fault? Not a lot... we’ve already talked about how the Ferns were outmatched in Tokyo and there’s nothing he could have done about key attacking injuries at the World Cup. The number one thing that can be done to improve this team is to get more professional players at the highest level possible, ensuring competition for places throughout, getting to where there are so many pros that we can’t name them all in any one squad. Then elements like club form and fitness come into the equation rather than having to rely on the same crew of players whether they’re coming off Champions League footy or an ACL injury. And believe it or not we are on that trajectory. It just takes time. Gabi Rennie, Anna Leat, and Daisy Cleverley are definitely heading down that path based on what we saw in Tokyo. A Welly Nix Women’s side is hopefully hooning up around the next bend too.

But there are a few things that Sermanni has to cop. At these Olympics he started with a 5-4-1 formation against Australia, switched to a 4-3-3 against the USA, and then played a 4-4-2 against Sweden. There was similar tactical shuffling on the fly at the World Cup. It never felt like Sermanni was confident what shape would get the best out of this team and that tends not to be the best indication of a team poised for success, you know? Of course it’s tough when you don’t have enough creativity in the squad to be able to rely on players winning individual battles in attack. You have to try and pick your battles with overloads and pressing which leave you vulnerable to the counter... I was reading about the Short Blanket idea recently which basically goes that setting up a footy team is like a short blanket, you pull it up over your shoulders and your feet go cold and vice versa. There’s no easy answer.

Having said that, playing Olivia Chance on the wing was a waste. Her best attacking attribute is her long shot and she was unleashed in an area where she couldn’t use it. Chance as a central attacking mid in a 5-3-2 would have been much more effective, plus then you’d have someone like Betsy Hassett able to play closer to Hannah Wilkinson and with CJ Bott and Ali Riley out wide you’ve got strong deep crossers anyway. Or if the back four was preferred then maybe a 4-2-2-2 shape with dual 10s rather than wingers (since we don’t really have anyone who can fill that role). Or a 4-5-1 because we do probably need that extra midfielder (and Daisy Cleverley did play very well in her two starts).

It’s also fair to say that with all this in mind, Sermanni could have maybe considered the 2023 situation more with his selections. Not so much with the starting teams because this is the Olympics, you pick the best team you can. But all three of our matches were basically cooked by half-time and yet he was reluctant to make subs. Only three of five possible changes were used in each game and four of them (out of nine total) only got five or fewer minutes. Three of the others were Paige Satchell getting 20-30 mins in each game. Good for her but, like, Rennie played 16 total minutes in three appearances despite being a goal scorer. To be fair most of the younger players in the squad weren’t available to call upon as you could only name a seven-woman bench (including a goalie) so there’s only so much he could do.

Ali Riley was in tears after the final whistle against Sweden, which was hard to watch. The captain’s a woman who wears her heart on her sleeve and this may well have been her last Olympic Games. It would have also been an emotional event as she played in Sweden for so many years, her partner is from Sweden, she’s talked about living in Sweden after she finishes her playing career. Plus just the disappointment of another tournament of defeats. None of these players are going to be on the plane out of Japan feeling like the team did as well as they could possibly have done.

Realistically though... when you don’t get any preparation beforehand it’s an uphill slog. The Americans might have gotten away with it (not that they would ever have to) but our players are coming from all erroneously hypothetical corners of the globe where they’re playing for clubs at different levels with different styles.

We were already the weakest team in the strongest group and we never even had a chance to close that gap. It’s a stink one (and NZ Football aren’t blameless for that, pandemic or no pandemic) but this remains a team capable of rustling feathers on the big stage and 2023 if it’s ever gonna happen then it’ll happen in 2023. Take the lessons of this campaign and apply them moving forward. The Olympics were a bust, so it goes, now the countdown to 2023 begins.

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