Where are the goals going to come from? After 180 minutes of goalless action in this international window the same old question remains and we’re not much closer to answering it. There were definitely some nice moments in the goalless draw against Wales, just as there were some nice moments against Norway before this. Yet the zeroes prevailed on the scoreboards. Where are the goals going to come from?

The simplest answer to that is to say that they’re not coming from anywhere in a hurry. This isn’t a Football Ferns team with a superstar attacker to build around. Like, say, Sam Kerr with Australia or Ada Hegerberg for Norway to name a couple of recent Ferns opponents. We’ve got players with aspects of game-breaking ability – Paige Satchell’s pace, Hannah Wilkinson’s height and strength, Liv Chance’s passing – but in flawed ways. Satchell struggles for the end product to go with the situations she creates through that raw speed (though she’s developed heaps over the last two A-League seasons). Wilkinson doesn’t always have the touch to go with her physicality. Chance is a midfielder having to play on the left wing in the search for creativity.

It is encouraging that a lot of attacking depth is quite young. Players like Jacqui Hand and Gabi Rennie feature most games now. Grace Jale is pushing through. Alyssa Whinham won’t be too far away. These are women who are already good and will only get better through more experience at the pro level. Although that also tells you something about where the sport is at in Aotearoa at the moment that prospect players are having to be first choice selections. Despite having more professional players than ever before, if you list the major ones in Europe and America right now there’s a pretty clear pattern...

Olivia Chance (Celtic), Ria Percival (Spurs), Anna Leat (Unattached, most recently West Ham), CJ Bott (Leicester City), Meikayla Moore (Unattached, most recently Liverpool), Abby Erceg & Katie Bowen (North Carolina), Ali Riley (Angel City), Vic Esson (Unattached, most recently SC Sand), Daisy Cleverley (HB Køge), Erin Nayler (Umeå IK), Jacqui Hand (Åland United), Betsy Hassett (Stjarnan), Emma Rolston (Avaldsnes), Ally Green (Vålerenga)

You see it? First off, expectations are high of a number of transfers over the next couple months. This is the time of the year when those ones begin to happen with Euro teams beginning to look towards their next seasons. Lots of A-League players available too (great news with the ALW being extended to 18 games next term and even more the season after). Hopefully that balances things out somewhat because as it stands that was a list of fifteen solid professionals... and only two are genuinely attacking players: Hand and Rolston.

Something to ponder on as the Ferns earned a 0-0 draw against Wales. A performance which was largely impressive in most areas. Probably deserved a win but they couldn’t repeat those same levels in the attacking third of the pitch against an admittedly strong Welsh defence. The Ferns moved the ball well in possession and with good tempo. There was a bit of joy from the press at times. Defensively sound outside of a small handful of minor lapses but even then Vic Esson was largely untroubled in goal. A well earned clean sheet and that’s nothing to scoff at there since the last time these two teams met was a similar affair just before the 2019 World Cup which seemed destined for a tame draw until Kayleigh Green scored a late goal to give Wales the 1-0 victory.

There was only one change from the team that started against Norway: Malia Steinmetz in for Betsy Hassett. A well-deserved opportunity as Steinmetz has continually impressed in her cameos since Jitka Klimková took over. This was also the first time that JK has used the same starting goalie in both/all games during a single window. If that wasn’t enough of an indication that Vic Esson has established herself as the current top choice then note that she also took the captain’s armband in both games after Rebekah Stott was replaced.

What didn’t change was the formation and possibly it should have. Another 4-4-2 shape, although against a deeper Welsh defensive line it did at times resemble more of the 4-2-2-2 shape that the Welly Nix lads employ. Overall though there wasn’t enough involvement of/from/for the wingers Chance and Bowen (again, both centre mids by preference) and given how the Ferns did spark some things via the early high press perhaps a front three could have taken better advantage of that.

Also whilst Liv Chance on the left offers plenty of benefits, one thing it restricts is her shooting ability from range which is a legit goal-scoring threat that we can’t really afford to be wasting. Plus Paige Satchell is better on the right wing where her role is simplified compared to playing through the middle. Satch took a while to find her areas against Wales, not given much space in behind, and when she did start to become more of a factor in the second half it was by drifting out to those wide areas anyway. Imagine a 4-3-3 in which someone like Hand/Rennie starts on the left and Liv Chance can operate in a number ten role. Then Steinmetz and Longo or Bowen and Percival or Cleverley and Hassett or whatever combination you want playing behind them. Just a thought.

Most of the Welsh squad plays in the United Kingdom. Their best attacking player, Jess Fishlock, does not. She’s at OL Reign in the USA (former teammate of Rosie White) but skipped this tour for similar reasons to Abby Erceg. Pretty hectic run of fixtures going on at club level there. Katie Bowen was all good because she’s been an unused sub in all but one game this season (and it was a Challenge Cup cameo) but Aotearoa’s other NWSL employee Ali Riley missed both games with a minor injury complaint after making the trip.

What that means is that, like the Footy Ferns, most of this Welsh team are out of season at the moment. That probably goes a way towards explaining why Wales conceded possession at the back several times in the opening phases... and also why the Ferns weren’t able to capitalise. There was one where Bowen and Wilkinson both left the ball for each other. Another where Wilkinson took a heavy touch in the box. Annalie Longo had an effort blocked after Wilkie had charged down (slightly inadvertently) a clearance. Just lacking that ruthless cutting edge, unfortunately.

There were some vulnerabilities at the back for the kiwi side and usually they stemmed from having CBs playing fullback. Meikayla Moore got burned for pace down the line leading to a square cross that mercifully avoided all Welsh attackers. Liz Anton missed her offside trap to allow Natasha Harding to get through – Claudia Bunge got a crucial touch on that to send it out for a corner but Harding still should have scored.

Liz Anton’s right-footedness was a slight issue trying to play up that flank. To that idea, the one time she found herself covering for Moore on the right she almost scored a banger of a goal. Unleashed a shot from range that was tipped over the bar for a corner. Then that corner was taken short and whipped in from that deeper angle by Katie Bowen... right onto the noggin of an unmarked Meikayla Moore who wasn’t able to get her header on target.

Half-time thus arrived with neither team having really asserted control over the fixture. Very much up for grabs in the second forty-five so credit to the Ferns because Wales never again created anything as good as those two first half chances. Meanwhile Rebekah Stott volleyed over the top and Liv Chance had a back-stick shot cleared off the line, albeit a tame effort off the right boot, as the Ferns themselves were still able to find a little attacking alignment here and there.

Didn’t get a major Hannah Wilkinson chance in amongst all that though. It was almost certainly down to rustiness but Wilkie wasn’t all there in this one. Off the ball her workrate was superb, very much a key part of that early press. But her first touch was quite poor. Wilkinson is a player who more than most seems to thrive when she’s in a rhythm of playing regularly and obviously that’s not been the case lately. Last club game came more than three months ago.

Klimková held off making subs longer than she usually does, making double changes after 57, 63, and 81 minutes. Stuck with the starters for the bulk of the first hour so you know she was focused on that potential victory. The first sub pairing saw Betsy Hassett make her 132nd senior international appearance and Ally Green make her first. Kate Taylor and Gabi Rennie came on in the second wave. Then Grace Jale and Jacqui Hand. Gotta say that the Ferns got more out of their bench than Wales did.

Case and point was a fantastic move that nearly led to an 89th minute winner. It began with Betsy Hassett (sub) moving the ball out of danger in her own penalty area to release Annalie Longo in transition. Longo hit it wide to Paige Satchell who was able to turn on the ball and slide Gabi Rennie (sub) in down the channel. Rennie held the ball up in the corner for Grace Jale (sub) in support and Jale’s excellent cross was headed towards goal by Jacqui Hand (sub) and tipped over by the keeper via the crossbar. Almost an outrageously good counter attacking goal and four substitutes were involved in the move.

But nah no dice. Had to settle for the goalless draw which keeps that ongoing frustration about creativity hovering around.

And yet... this was a good performance. Can’t ignore the non-goal-scoring elephant in the room but also can’t focus exclusively on that old mate and miss out on the positives. The way that they operated in midfield was especially nice. Annalie Longo was probably the Ferns’ best player, bringing great mobility and ensuring that the ball never stopped rolling. She was busy and she was effective. Malia Steinmetz didn’t waste her opportunity either. Steiny had a tendency to spray a pass now and then, moving the ball by instinct without looking up, but that’s the kind of thing that players learn with time. What matters is that Steinmetz wins tackles, intercepts passes, and doesn’t let the ball get stuck at her feet.

Some interesting points made by Coach Klimková afterwards. Mentioned that a major focus has been getting in crosses from the by-line (yes please!) and that they produced six of them against Norway having only had seven total in the previous nine matches. Not a heap of them against Wales but it shows that they’re thinking hard about attacking solutions. There’s purpose to their play. But these things don’t happen automatically like flipping a switch, it takes time to implement them.

A word for Vic Esson. This was her eighth cap but the first two were subs appearances so her sixth start. Those six starts:

• 6-0 vs Cook Islands, Nov 2018

• 2-0 vs South Korea, Nov 2021

• 0-0 vs Czech Republic, Feb 2022

• 1-2 vs Australia, Apr 2022

• 0-2 vs Norway, Jun 2022

• 0-0 vs Wales, Jun 2022

Two wins, two draws, two losses. Four goals conceded in six matches. Four clean sheets. Considering the state of this team that’s actually quite remarkable, especially considering how close that 2-1 loss to Australia was to being a 1-0 win. In the five starts that she’s made under JK, Esson has conceded four goals. In the six games that she hasn’t started under JK the Ferns have conceded 17 goals. All three of their positive results with Klimková have come with Esson in goal. In the last three years she’s the only Ferns keeper with a clean sheet and she’s got three of them in that time (despite only starting five of the 19 matches in that stretch). We’re well past the point of that being a coincidence.

And another quicker word for Jacqui Hand who played less than twenty total minutes on this tour but still managed to pile up several impressive moments. Smart passes, dribbling past a defender, sharp turns, a header off the bar. That kinda thing. Hand’s doing great for her new Finnish league club having already earned a contract extension after only initially signing on a short term basis and is sneakily emerging as a very handy (so to speak) attacking bench option.

Claudia Bunge was great as well. A couple essential interventions in the first half, plus she moved the ball nicely through the lines. Bunge has started six games in a row for the Ferns, alongside four different partners (Moore, Erceg, Bowen & Stott). She’s won back to back A-League titles as a key player for Melbourne Victory. Still only 22 years old. Almost a locked on starter at this point and she’s only getting better. The point was made earlier about NZ not developing that many top level attacking players... absolutely no dramas with the defensive production line. How about Kate Taylor getting that second cap as well?

Funny thing afterwards was seeing the Welsh coach Gemma Grainger talking the challenges of playing against a higher-ranked opposition. Funny because that’s normally what our coaches say after games. Also funny because there clearly wasn’t much between these two teams. Not like the Fernies had 70% of possession and 20+ shots. ‘Higher-ranked’ in this case is merely a technicality.

NZ is at #22 on the most recent FIFA rankings... does anyone honestly think there are only 21 better teams than Aotearoa around the world? The depth isn’t as massive on the wahine international side but even still. The Ferns are apparently the 22nd best team on the planet despite winning just one of their last twenty-three matches? That doesn’t feel very logical. And even if it is true then there’s clearly a bigger difference between 22 and a top twenty team than there is between 22 and a team in the 30-realm like Wales.

A large portion of those past 23 games were against teams ranked above them - a long standing problem for the Ferns. The only four games which weren’t against teams currently ranked higher were the two against Wales, one against Cameroon, and one against Czech Republic. From which they’ve had two draws and two losses.

FIFA rankings are ridiculous, overused, and pointless. Forget about the rankings. The Ferns aren’t empirically better than Wales and that’s fine. We don’t want to be playing teams that are clearly inferior any more than we want teams that are clearly superior. What we want is games against teams of a similar level where there’s room to grow but also the pressure to perform. Games like this one against Wales.

The Ferns weren’t able to get the dub however they might have done so with a little more luck and precision. You don’t learn how to win by getting smoked 5-0 by the USA. You learn how to win by playing evenly matched fixtures like this one. The more the merrier.

Support the work we do at TNC with a nudge on our Patreon, please and thanks

Also whack an ad, sign up to our banger Substack, and tell your mates about us

Keep cool but care