Well, that’s not how it was supposed to go down. The All Whites drew an impressive crowd of just a shade under 35k to Eden Park but weren’t able to turn that into a rare victory against the Socceroos, getting blanked once more in a 2-0 defeat. Goals for Mitch Duke with a sharp header on 54’ and Jason Cummings from the penalty spot after a Libby Cacace handball with ten to play.

The kiwis selected their strongest available team that the kiwis selected but Chris Wood went off with a rib injury in the first half and without him there wasn’t much direction up front despite some quality possession play. Then in the second half they simply lost control. The Aussies figured out a way to break down the back three with quick balls into that channel outside the CBs and behind the wing-backs. Then when they got the ball around our penalty area they actually made a few things happen. Didn’t quite quite work like that at the other end. A wonderful occasion with a big crowd in attendance, much bigger than what the reverse fixture in Brisbane served up, but despite the promise of this exciting emerging All Whites team it was a familiar kinda result, sadly.

This is a crossroads moment for the All Whites. Winston Reid has retired, subbed off to a standing ovation with quarter of an hour remaining, serenaded on the commentary by Jason Pine pulling out his inner Peter Drury. Because of the failure to qualify for the World Cup, NZF missed out on a financial windfall and the necessity of further fixtures which means probably won’t see them again this year. The next international window after that isn’t until late-March. So, it’ll be six months before this team plays again. Whatever the state of the team right now, they’re gonna have to simmer in it for a wee while.

What’s more is that Danny Hay’s contract runs out during that time and, to be honest, it shouldn’t be a lock that he gets a renewal. Chris Wood says it should be, he was pretty emphatic on that matter after the game. But Hay himself has been coy about it all, saying he’s had no contact about the matter from NZF and earlier tossing up the possibility of him walking away due to the lack of games. That felt like a bluff... but frankly it may not be his call anyway.

Hay’s done great work in rebuilding this All Whites programme after the pandemic. He’s gotten them back into a serious place, in which the best players want to be involved (a massively crucial thing in his favour), and other than a 3-1 loss against Jordan in January you’d have to say the results were pretty good all the way through to the end of the Oceania qualifiers. Perhaps an over-reliance on Chris Wood’s goals but most of the other attackers were young dudes still being embedded in the international scene. As long as Woodsy is scoring then you can handle that learning curve.

But then they lost a frustrating friendly game 1-0 to Peru (thanks to an Oli Sail error) followed by a 0-0 draw vs Oman. Only one player started both that and the intercontinental playoff (Bill Tuiloma) so maybe it doesn’t really count, it wasn’t even televised after all. But the 1-0 loss to Costa Rica sure counted. Frustrating circumstances but once again they couldn’t find the back of the net and thus the World Cup dream is over for another four years. Now 1-0 and 2-0 defeats to Australia mean that the All Whites have lost all four of their toughest games over this cycle without scoring a goal despite competitive performances. Young team on the rise, a few key injuries, all them things... but even still that’s an undeniable failure. The AW’s were good enough to get something from each of those games and they didn’t get anything from any of them.

Danny Hay has to cop some heat from that. He’s got this team playing some lovely, ambitious footy building out from the back and defensively there’s nothing to worry about. But this lack of goals is a serious problem. Maybe he’s the man to solve that drama, maybe all it’ll take is more games, more training sessions, more time. The point is that he’s had the opportunity to prove that he’s the man, beyond a shadow of a doubt, and did not. Hence it’s a conversation that needs having.

The All Whites had a combined xG from the two Aussie games of 1.2 which is nowhere near enough considering the quality of their possession. They seem to get a bit self-conscious when they hit the attacking third. They want to play the extra pass which is fine... but it needs to be quicker and it needs a bit more variety.

On top of that there’s a lack of finishing touch in this team. Wrote about this in the game one recap and it’s even more obvious now having seen them play almost sixty minutes without Chris Wood. Combine the forces of Matt Garbett, Joe Bell, Alex Greive, and Marko Stamenic... all play in top flight European leagues and between them they have scored one goal this season. Greive with that bad boy. Garbett hasn’t actually played for Torino yet so that’s a bit unfair. Then again, that’s also part of the issue.

If only this team had a playmaker who can pick incisive passes in the attacking third, who can whip in accurate crosses from out wide, and who can shoot with enough power and accuracy to threaten goals from both inside and outside the penalty area. Oh wait, we do have a playmaker like that: Sarpreet Singh. But he’s injured. Didn’t play in any of these past five scoreless games and that’s not a coincidence. The All Whites aren’t deep enough to handle the absence of their best few players without consequence and Sarpreet Singh is definitely in that category.

That ‘strongest available team’ saw three changes from the first match. Winston Reid and Bill Tuiloma came into the back three with Tim Payne sliding out to right wing-back. Also Marko Stamenic started in midfield at the expense of Andre De Jong – with Matt Garbett and Elijah Just in support of Chris Wood up top. Oli Sail kept goal for the third straight match. Nando Pijnaker held his spot on the left of the back three. Joe Bell in midfield with Stamenic. The only non-injury-enforced difference to the Costa Rica game (Niko Kirwan and Clayton Lewis being the injured jerries) was Eli Just starting ahead of Alex Greive.

The first half was a lot like the game in Brisbane where the All Whites looked confident in possession and probably had the better of the contest except they failed to turn that into golden chances. The second half, in comparison, was really poor. Even before a well-worked Mitch Duke goal on 54’ the Aussies had come out of the sheds looking much stronger. Part of it seemed to be that they’d figured out a way to get the ball forward and keep it there. Part of it also had to be the All Whites dropping off.

Fatigue would’ve been a factor with so many of these players travelling long distances to get here and then also playing decent minutes on Thursday night. It wasn’t only that though. Joe Bell is going through the first major speedbump in his career as he’s in and out of a struggling Brøndby team these days. He looked a little down on confidence, perhaps. Marko Stamenic shouldn’t be suffering any lack of confidence after his past couple months but after a strong first half he sorta went missing in the second. Perhaps an instruction to press a bit higher? That’s something that Copenhagen have been doing with him a lot too... and they’ve also been losing too many games (and just sacked their coach so Marko will have to make some introductions when he gets back to Denmark).

And the back five didn’t play great overall. All were strong in their individual challenges but as a unit there were worries. Mostly down to the mobility of the Aussie forwards. There were a few times where one lagging player prevented an offside flag – thankfully the Aussies were preferring diagonal runs so nothing that killed them directly. That mobility also exposed concerns of a lack of pace at the back.

Winston Reid is retiring as a legend of the game in Aotearoa and it’s a bloody shame he bows out with only 33 international caps. However it’s doubtful too many folks are surprised by the timing. His leadership and composure at the back was there on full display at Eden Park. His anticipation and athleticism, on the other hand, probably showed the consequences of twelve months without club football.

Also Tim Payne struggled at RWB. It’s tough for him because he doesn’t play that role with the Welly Nix. For that team he’s usually a central defender and when he plays wide right it’s in a back four with a winger ahead of him and he’s not expected to push so far forward. Yet in this system the wing-backs really need to be important factors in the attack.

Libby Cacace was the one bloke in the five who looked a class above over both these games. Fair enough, he’s the only NZer to ever play Serie A as it stands (your turn next, Matty Garbett) so no shame there. Compare Cacace’s output to Payne’s. Libby knows his angles and his options. He can use the sideline to his advantage rather than it being another thing to worry about. He’s quick off the mark for a return pass. He’s decisive.

Tim Payne would do fine as a right back in a four. Has done fine, in fact. But he’s not a wing-back... which exposes another problem because Dane Ingham is quick and he works hard but he’s not even a locked-on A-League starter. Ditto for Storm Roux, only he’s not as quick (see him get burned by Garang Kuol in the lead up to the penalty – granted, Kuol’s lightning... and rumoured to be joining Chris Wood at Newcastle in the future). Niko Kirwan is the best of the bunch but he plays third tier in Italy and is currently rehabbing an ACL tear. If we’re gonna stick with a back three then the right wing-back position is one that needs a fresh solution.

Then also there’s a need for some context to this defeat because Chris Wood has scored 52 goals in the English Premier League. Everybody loves the Waine Train but when Ben Waine replaces Chris Wood in the first half of a big international fixtures... it’s not the same thing. Waine does have a tidy goal-scoring record but he’s not even first choice at the Wellington Phoenix.

The optimism that we could beat Australia stemmed from how strong our team had gotten on paper. Definitely only on paper because this incarnation of the All Whites still lacks a statement result against a top-50 calibre opponent. Let’s be real though, you take the literal best player on the field out of proceedings and expectations have to change. This was already an All Whites side without Sarpreet Singh, Ryan Thomas, Niko Kirwan, Kosta Barbarouses, Marco Rojas, and Clayton Lewis. We don’t have the depth to replace Premier League quality with Premier League quality. We’re struggling even to replace Serie C quality and A-League quality without there being a visible drop-off.

And that, apparently, is where we leave the All Whites for the next six months. When they eventually next play they may or may not have a new coach. There will probably have been a few more players who’ve launched themselves into national team consideration. Could be that some of the current crop find themselves at different clubs. Sarpreet Singh should be fit and firing again. Who knows where we’ll be? This is only the beginning of a journey... but damn it would have been nice to beat Australia.

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