You’d have been forgiven for turning the telly off fifteen minutes into the latest WahiNix fixture as Perth’s Susan Phonsongkham slotted home her penalty kick to make it 2-0 to the Glory bright and early. Cyera Hinton had already smacked one in from outside the area. Might have taken a slight deflection but Bri Edwards still should’ve saved a shot that pretty much went down the middle of the goal, while the penalty concession was also a self-inflicted wound as the back four was caught out of shape and then Mackenzie Barry picked a bad time for a very rare mistimed tackle on her part.

Already two goals down inside quarter of an hour when this team has scored just three times all season? Hard to see how they were gonna recover from that... and they didn’t. But if you did switch the telly off at that time then you’d have missed the most positive attacking output they’ve served up this season. Didn’t get them a goal but they hit the crossbar twice through those trademarked Michaela Foster cross/shots and actually having a few spells of control where they were able to sustain attacks for more than just the initial wave. They had 57% of possession, just the second time this season they’ve been on the majority side of that statistic. It wasn’t good enough... but it was better.

However the bottom line was still that at the end of a sweaty ninety minutes in Perth, more than half of it spent with each team one player short after Ella Mastrantonio and Emma Rolston were sent off, the Wellington Phoenix lost. Another scoreless game for the SheNix. Another defeat. Another week left to ponder why this team hasn’t yet made the leaps forward that they were supposed to in year two of existence.

Last season they were stuck in Australia and the late notice of their entry into the A-League left them in a compromised situation where they had little choice but to lean into a development year. But a development year is supposed to a temporary thing. You bring in a bunch of young players, build them up, then they provide the platform for success in subsequent seasons. So far that’s not happened. So far, despite making a few signings intended to take them to that next level, the team has only stagnated. A draw and seven defeats through their first eight games. They’re not scoring goals, they’re hardly even creating proper chances. Players who were expected to lift them to a more competitive place haven’t yet done so.

Okay then, why is that? Well, there are reasons... and quite a few of them. We’ll get into some of those soon but first gotta lay out some context because humans have this tendency to be presented with the exact same negative information over and over and decide that things are getting worse each time. They’re not – they’re exactly the same. That’s kinda where the Nix are at in season two compared to season one. They’re not worse... in fact it’s almost identical.

WahiNix after 8 games in 2021-22:

0 W | 1 D | 7 L | 4 GF | 22 GA | -18 GD | 1 PT

WahiNix after 8 games in 2022-23:

0 W | 1 D | 7 L | 3 GF | 17 GA | -14 GD | 1 PT

Almost, but actually slightly better thanks to a more stable defensive line. Of course, that previous squad did go on to get a lot better over the remaining six matches, winning two of them and competing in most. Those last six games saw them scored 10 goals and concede 14. Still leaking more than two goals per game on average but suddenly they were scoring a few which made all the difference. Here’s how last season overall compares to this one so far in terms of a few deeper statties...

The late season attacking surge tips a lot of these numbers in favour of last season despite mostly being ahead of (or at least indistinguishable from) where they were at the equivalent stage. Gotta remember that last season was a journey, along which they made steady improvements culminating in being a much more competitive team by the final month. This team hasn’t gotten there yet. We’re only eight games deep (and it’s a slightly expanded season thanks to Western United’s birth).

Having said that, not sure we can expect a similar attacking surge this time around. That’s because the main reason for the year one boost was Grace Jale. She struggled with injury for most of the first half of that season then basically as soon as she starting getting big minutes the team started scoring goals. No further research needed, no need to hire Benoit Blanc for this mystery. Jale was the Nix’s top scorer with six goals and she scored in each of the Phoenix’s final four games, including both the wins. And she now plays for Canberra United instead of the Wellington Phoenix. So... that boost isn’t happening again unless somebody else steps up.

That might happen. It’s possible. We can only wait and see. In the meantime, yeah, results may be the same and the underlying numbers do suggest some notable trends in the right direction, especially defensively... but a lot of fans were hoping for more than positive trends for identical results. Hence this is where we get to crack into a few reasons for why the WahiNix haven’t taken the second year leap that was hoped for from them. So let’s do that.

DEVELOPMENT > RESULTS

It feels like there was a general expectation that after picking a year one squad focused on development (and with the U20 World Cup in mind) that things would ramp up in year two. And they have, at least in terms of intentions... but a large chunk of the same players still remain, right?

Those players are only one year older and one professional season – a max of 14 professional games - doesn’t suddenly launch you into the peak of your career. They’re still learning, still developing. The Nix have gone from an average player age of 20.8 years to 22.8 years. A couple of experienced signings have helped matters but they’re still the second youngest team going around (surprisingly Sydney FC are even younger... NZ’s Anna Green is the only player aged over 26 to have taken the pitch for them this term).

That’s the main lesson to take from what we’ve seen so far: the Wellington Phoenix are struggling because transitioning from a developmental focus to a results-based focus is actually really hard. Expectations change. Timelines change. Pressure amplifies. There’s suddenly a need for more accountability for errors (as opposed to allowing players the room to figure it out at the expense of goals and defeats)... yet a large chunk of the starters every week are still going to be making those rookie mistakes. This is not a big enough squad to be dropping and recalling players every week.

The trick to hanging about as a professional is being able to deliver consistent performances every week. That’s clearly not something that these Nixers have all acclimatised to yet. Of course they haven’t. The majority of players their age haven’t either. It’s just that most players their age aren’t having to play such crucial roles alongside so many other players their own age.

There are a couple areas where it feels like the Wellington Phoenix underestimated the task ahead of them and this is definitely one of them. They re-signed 13 of the 20 players that featured for them last season, with five of the seven that they didn’t being Australians. There have been some very clever additions in their place... but of them only Paige Satchell, Emma Rolston, and Marisa van der Meer had played in the A-League before and only Satchell could claim to have been a regular at a previous club. Betsy Hassett’s heavy international experience clearly outweighs any ALW yarns but as much as players like the Michaela’s Robertson and Foster deserved this gig they are also still rookies at this level. And, of course, the team has zero import players to aid the cause.

Compare the Phoenix to the only younger team in the competition: Western United. The Nix selected players mostly at the youngest/most inexperienced end of the spectrum and have settled into the A-League with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 18 defeats to start their existence. Western Utd launched into things this season with a trio of top quality American imports, several very experienced locals, and a squad with only two players aged under 22 to have taken the pitch so far. They won their first seven games on the trot. Western United are top of the table in year one while the Nix were last in their own first swing. That ain’t a coincidence. One team is set up to win now, one team is set up to maybe win later. There are other factors at play (NZF’s investment, being the only pro team in Aotearoa, etc.) but just as a pure comparison of intentions that does tell a vivid tale.

INJURIES

Regardless of those yarns, the Nix would surely have been able to make a few more steps up the progress ladder had they ever at any stage been able to pick their best team. Instead a wild injury crisis has ensured they’re yet to even get close to full strength in year two.

It’s just one thing after another. Lily Alfeld has missed the entire term so far, recently suffering another setback which ruled her out of the national team squad. That’s the captain and number one keeper out of action. Brianna Edwards has done better than expected in relief of Alfeld and you can’t fault Edwards’ mentality or her technique. She’s just not as good as Alfeld is. Not at this stage of her career. She makes mistakes that Alfeld wouldn’t and she can’t command the defence in front of her in the same way. Again, refer to the section about player development.

Kate Taylor also missed five games through injury before returning against Perth – and she’d been playing through that ankle knock in the first two games where she was visibly below her usual standards. Grace Wisnewski got hurt on Ferns duty just before the start of the season and went on to miss four games – the midfield has been much more balanced since she brought a disciplined ball-winning presence to proceedings. However at the same time as Wisnewski returned, Alyssa Whinham ducked out for personal reasons and has missed the last four matches. The club has been respectful about what those personal reasons are and it’s none of our business to be speculating. Wouldn’t mind knowing if there’s a timeline as to when the Nix’s most naturally creative player might be expected to return though.

Emma Rolston has missed four games through injury and will be suspended for the next two (one of which she was gonna miss anyway for Ferns duty). It’s one thing signing a capped international forward but when she’s yet to play more than two games in a row the impact is not gonna be what was promised. Mickey Robertson missed week one through injury. Isabel Gomez missed the first two games. Betsy Hassett is coming off a two-game absence (though neither for injury tbf). Is that all? Nope. Paige Satchell has also had to sit out two games, including the 1-1 draw with Western Sydney where a bit of her game-breaking pace, even off the bench, could have come in handy when chasing an elusive win.

Add that all together and we’re seeing different combinations almost every week. Mackenzie Barry, Brianna Edwards, and Michaela Foster have played every minute. Marisa van der Meer, Ava Pritchard, and Chloe Knott have started every game. But of those six only Barry and Edwards have played the same position each time. The midfield trio has been especially rattled by these injuries and when you can’t get the midfield right, everything else is going to suffer. There has yet to be a game this season in which the Wellington Phoenix have fewer than three players unavailable, whereas last time there was only one game in which they had more.

In that light... matching last season’s results with better underlying defensive stats suddenly doesn’t seem like such a dramatic underachievement.

SECOND ALBUM SLUMP

This is a speculative idea but the Welly Nix are using a lot of the same players and they’re playing in mostly the same style as they did last time. In other words all these clubs (bar Western United) have seen them before and know what to expect. Like, you don’t mess around at the back when the Nix are in high press mode. You’re aware that the Nix probably won’t be able to pass their way through you so you can let them have possession at the back and then attack in transition when the inevitable sloppy pass arrives. They’re a team that allows lots of shots, therefore don’t panic if you miss a big chance. Make sure to attack with pace out wide. Target those second-phases in the attacking third. Hit them early or hit them late. Lots of goals conceded in those times.

Not to mention that individual players are now known quantities for any team with a decent scouting system. When you’ve got a few too many one-dimensional players out there as is, having zero surprise factor is a problem. Teams know they can’t stop Paige Satchell from out-sprinting them with the ball... but they also know that if they can shuffle her wide then she probably won’t be able to land her cross. Avoid conceding set pieces where Michaela Foster can strike them. Put extra pressure on Betsy Hassett as the only true ball-player in the midfield. That kinda thing.

No player suffered more from this than Alyssa Whinham did across the first four games, really starved of any space in which to work as teams realised that if they could shut her down then they were taking away one of the only unpredictable elements to the Welly Nix. Limited sample size but she went from 2.18 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes last season to 1.31 SCA/90 over those four games.

There is an easy solution: adapt. Perhaps a tweak in the formation, maybe a shift in selections, definitely a few nudges with player habits. If Satchell knows that opponents know to keep her wide then she can adjust by angling her run inwards earlier or starting from a more centralised area or somebody else can use her decoy run to attack the space she’s created by dragging a defender out. There are ways and there are means.

RECRUITMENT

When Ufuk Talay took over the men’s team at the Welly Nix, he said straight off the bat that 70% of coaching success was down recruitment. When evaluating the squad that the WahiNix are working with, you do kinda have to ask yourself: Is this the best group of players that they could feasibly have brought together?

The answer is an unequivocal ‘no’. Of course it’s not. Even if you accept the lack of imports because having one professional team in Aotearoa does kinda mean that prioritising as many kiwi players as possible should be the aim... they also aren’t signing the best kiwi players.

Most of these players have done some National League things in the past so there’s a direct comparison to be made. Kate Taylor has massive potential, she’s legitimately someone who should be playing professionally in Europe within a couple of seasons. But if they were looking for the best current Canterbury defender then Rebecca Lake would have gotten the nod. Zoe McMeeken is not better than, say, Lara Wall or Talisha Green. Charlotte Lancaster is not better than Deven Jackson or Tayla O’Brien. Ava Pritchard is not better than Renee Bacon or even Kelli Brown who was released by the Nix after an injury-plagued year one. All of those players could prove more effective than their comparisons down the line – probably should do given this professional exposure - but in terms of a Win Now mentality that’s not where it was at.

This isn’t an across-the-board thing. Lily Alfeld was the best domestic keeper available (having done a year with Perth Glory already). Mackenzie Barry had a similar pedigree to players like Liz Anton and Claudia Bunge and all three have done really well since joining the ALW. Grace Wisnewski and Chloe Knott were ready for this level. Same deal with Michaela Foster and Michaela Robertson this term – and it’s incredibly pertinent to point out that Foster and Robertson, as women in their mid-20s, have been able to make the step up a lot quicker. They’re more mature as people and as players. It makes a difference. This team could have been a lot stronger if they’d prioritised more players in that mould from the start.

Looking specifically at this season, the injuries have made the depth look worse than it really is but even if everyone were fit the biggest problem still remains: there’s no bloody striker. Emma Rolston was seemingly bought for that purpose but she’ll only have played 245 minutes after the first ten games and it’s pretty much all been out wide or as a number ten. Instead Ava Pritchard has been taking those centre-forward duties... and Ava Pritchard has taken 11 shots in eight games with only two on target (granted her one assist did happen thanks to an own goal via a deflected shot off target).

Pritchard is a solid player with no real weaknesses... but she also kinda has no real strengths either. At least not anything that sets her apart from the crowd. That’s fine in a team where everybody’s chipping in around her but this team needs something different. They need a centre-forward who can finish at an elite level (due to the limited chances they’ll get), who can hold the ball up and bring others into play (in order to haul their team higher up the park), who can be a factor on the end of set pieces and long balls (as those are the only reliable outlets that they may have to work with), and probably someone who can be a force on the counter attack too. They had someone like that last season, her name was Grace Jale. She left to advance her career in Canberra. fair enough... except they never adequately replaced her. In fact it kinda looks like they didn’t even try.

Gotta be sympathetic to the cause because the main problem with the Nix’s attack is not wastefulness. The main problem with their attack is that they don’t do nearly enough of it. The Nix average 7.9 shots per game which is almost four shots worse than the next lowest number (Western Sydney at 11.6). They also have the lowest rate of shots on target (25%) which suggests either that they suck at shooting or that they’re shooting from low quality situations. There’s some of the former involved but it’s much more of the latter considering they also have the lowest xG per shot. As well as the lowest overall Expected Goals, naturally. An xG of 4.6 after eight games is not really within the realms of happiness.

They have signed Milly Clegg and they have signed Mickey Robertson. Both of them have offered plenty in recent weeks, especially Robertson, thanks to an ability to run at defenders. Paige Satchell has that too (albeit with a weaker end product). Foster has been an instant improvement down the left. Some of their recruitment has been excellent so credit where it’s due. It’s just that the one area of the park where they truly needed some help went ignored.

Admittedly finding a kiwi striker who can hold down the fort is no simple task – if we developed players like that then the Footy Ferns wouldn’t have the same goal scoring dramas as the Welly Nix do. Might be more that they needed to bite the bullet and stump up for an American import, someone like Hannah Keane who could not only bang a few goals away but also help coach the team’s attack on the pitch and mentor a prodigy like Milly Clegg off it. Americans love New Zealand. The NWSL is in its offseason. This ain’t an impossible request and while it would mean one fewer kiwi on the roster it would also mean the rest of them can develop faster.

This recruitment yarn also includes Natalie Lawrence taking over from Gemma Lewis as head coach. Both of them have impressed in their own ways and results have been equally poor so can’t really compare the records. The point is that it was a deliberate choice from the club to elevate Lawrence rather than searching elsewhere. An outsider coach might have helped spark the symbolic change in expectations from year one to year two. Then again they also could have destabilised a young squad and led to too much change at once. It’s impossible to say. But it’s something to note down in the meantime.

THE TACTICAL CONUNDRUM

Yeah... you know what? This section probably needs to be its whole own article.

Broken down like this, it’s clear that there are a few darts which have missed the bullseye for the Wellington Phoenix. Not signing a striker to replace Grace Jale (even though Jale mostly played on the left wing, she had Chloe Knott as a false nine infield so it was often Jale leading the line from out wide – plus she was the leading goal-scorer with as many goals as the entire rest of her team had put together... not counting one OG). Underselling the leap in experience they’d need to compete. Not accounting for the ol’ second season struggles.

But there are also plenty of things – most notably the injuries – which they could never have accounted for and which have caused untold chaos to their plans. We literally have not seen their best eleven on the field yet so of course they haven’t made the leap that was hoped. And also there’s the small matter of unrealistic expectations from us as fans expecting them to make that leap when they still have such a young squad. Like, it is what it is at this point. You either support them along the journey or you change the channel, right? No point whining because a 20 year old misplaced a pass. Chill with it. Lessons are being learned. It’s just gonna take longer than we’d initially hoped.

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