They did at least get better with each game. Five-nil became two-nil became one-nil and the performances kept improving to merit that. But the bottom line was that the Football Ferns had three games against seemingly competitive teams, more competitive than they’ve been playing lately anyway, and yet the same problems still persisted. Three defeats in a row with zero goals scored. It’s not great for confidence leading into a home World Cup, is it?

The plan is to win a game at that World Cup and maybe even sneak into the knockouts while we’re at it. There’ll never be a better opportunity than as co-hosts thanks to the favourable draw that entails but those dreams were a long way off last week watching the team struggle once more. Confidence is low. Rewards have been scarce. There’s pressure on all involved. And at the same time there’s more focus on the team than ever before, accentuating and exaggerating an already tricky situation.

This was a wake-up call for the Ferns at the last possible moment when they’ve got time to feasibly do something about it (there’s another window in April, with games probably in Europe, then after that it’s the World Cup itself). Jitka Klimkova’s lot came into this three-game tour promising results and then didn’t get any, leaving us in a fretful space. Except that nothing that we saw here was new (other, perhaps, than getting to do it at home with more people watching). It was all a continuation of the ongoing Fernies struggle to hang on in the increasingly competitive world of women’s international football. Amidst a couple other considerations.

These games were supposed to be a better indication of where the Ferns are at than the non-window freebies against world champs USA... and they were, to be fair, just not with the answers we were hoping for. Portugal are ranked 22. Argentina are ranked 29. The Ferns themselves are nestled softly between them at 24 (for now), though had previously never lost to either nation. But that only goes to show how fast the landscape is shifting – a lot of teams are getting a lot better in a hurry as the sport moves into new realms of professionalism... especially in Europe.

For a nation like Portugal that means the rankings probably don’t reflect where they really are. They’ve been steadily rising since 2016 when the Ferns last faced them (when POR were hovering in the late-30s). They’ve got a professional league with Champions League entry. Benfica, the dominant Portuguese club, actually knocked Vic Esson’s Rangers out in the UCL qualifiers a few months back. Sporting CP and Braga are the other big dogs in the Campeonato Nacional Feminino with that trio sharing the titles over the past six years.

Only the last six years though. Those three didn’t used to win everything, now they do. What’s changed? Well unlike the teams that used to boss things in Portugal, Benfica and Sporting and Braga are all clubs with huge men’s teams that have recently begun shifting resources into their women’s sides as well. Existing success is fuelling more success. Crazy what you can achieve with lots of money, right? It’s a dirty secret across most pro sports that the richest teams are usually the most successful.

Hannah Wilkinson knows all about this because she played a season for Sporting CP a couple years back and scored bundles of goals (16 goals in 20 matches across all comps). But the average kiwi fan would be forgiven for not realising that trend... and for assuming that the Ferns are suddenly getting so much worse. Not to excuse all their faults, absolutely not, but it’s obviously so much harder to compete with that kinda resource gap. European nations in particular are just surging forward these days. The last World Cup saw seven Euro teams and the USA make the quarters. Hopefully that won’t be the case this time – co-hosts Australia are a good bet to bust into that company – but it’s context that we’ve gotta be aware of when assessing the Ferns against other nations.

Argentina aren’t quite on the same wave as they lack that European proximity. Sure enough, those two games were a lot more competitive with the Ferns left disappointed not to get anything from either. Fingers crossed that the South American scene doesn’t latch onto the trend any time soon, although if they do it’ll only bring us back to where we ouhgta be in the first place.

Aotearoa has one professional team and it’s existed for a year and a half. We’ve lived in a blessed pocket of women’s footy for the best part of two decades, automatically qualifying for World Cups which we perhaps weren’t always good enough to merit courtesy of Oceania’s free spot. That path is still gonna be there but the competitive ceiling’s getting harder to bust through. The beauty of the sport is that nothing is impossible across those ninety minutes... it’s just that the list of things that need to go right for the Ferns to get dubs gets longer and longer as other nations shed the cloak of unseriousness.

But, like, since when did anyone get the idea that a New Zealand football team should be anything other than underdogs? One professional club. A population of only five million. Other sports annoyingly hogging money and attention. It’s supposed to be hard to win games against nationals like Portugal and Argentina. Mate, if the men’s team took on those two then an aggregate 8-0 loss over three matches would be cause for celebration. Again, this doesn’t excuse the very obvious issues within these Football Ferns performances however it’s a dose of context that needs to be emphasised when looking at the team’s losing record.

Oh yeah and you know why winning a game at the World Cup is such a priority? Because it’s never happened before. The Ferns have never won a World Cup game in fifteen previous attempts. It’s not like they’re former champions sinking miserably down into mediocrity. New Zealand has never won a World Cup game (men or women, come to think of it). As seeded co-hosts this is the best opportunity they’ll ever get (the expanded 32-team tournament sure helps too) but we’re still talking about uncharted territory.

Should also mention that the transition into a properly professional sport is proving a tricky one for a number of countries. Spain should be amongst the contenders in a few months yet as things stand they’ve got 15 of their best players refusing to play under the current coach. Canada are the Olympic champs but their players recently went on strike over a lack of funding (in a World Cup year no less), an issue that has also been echoed by the men’s team (further reason why John Herdman flirted with leaving for the All Whites gig) and which recently caused the Canada Soccer president to resign. Plus former Japanese striker Yuki Nagasato last week went in on the Japan FA for their lack of promotion/investment/interest in their women’s national team. It’s the early days of a new era and that’s not always an easy thing to adjust to. Progress doesn’t always happen in a straight line and old ways of thinking/working can be stumbling blocks.

Next comes another contextual element which has at least been recognised by most folks, although still not emphasised enough: once again the Football Ferns were missing several key players for this tour. It’s actually getting quite infuriating how every game there seems to be a couple of starters sitting out with “minor” knocks and niggles. You can’t do much about it, clubs pay the salaries so clubs call the shots. The Ferns themselves also appear to be quite cautious with injuries but then it’s hard to blame them. The excessive travel alone probably contributes to a few sneaky muscle complaints and the last thing we need is anything long term.

The squad that was named didn’t have the services of players like Ria Percival and Annalie Longo who’ve been recovering from serious knee injuries. They haven’t quite looked the same without Percy in particular. Prayers up that this is the last tour without her – note that Tottenham Hotspur feeling the pinch without Percival too, floundering now one year after a record finish when RP played almost every minute up until the injury. She’s that good... and she’s elite at pressing and playing in transition which would tie together so much of what the Ferns are trying to do.

Vic Esson and Anna Leat were each also absent after picking up injuries in the weeks leading up to the window – neither played this past weekend so it wasn’t anything cynical from their clubs. Jacqui Hand is still working her way back from an injury suffered on Ferns duty late last year as well.

Then Rebekah Stott, freshly back for Brighton and pushing for a starting gig, got hurt and couldn’t partake in any of the three games (opening up a spot for Michaela Foster in the squad). Plus Claudia Bunge and Indi Riley each had their minutes managed after a head clash playing against each other in the A-League. When things like that are happening we’ve gotta start pondering whether or not we’ve been cursed. Best check with the oracles to see if Zeus demands a sacrifice before the next squad is named.

As if that wasn’t enough, after the first game both Ali Riley and CJ Bott sat out the Argentina matches with injuries of their own. Would they have played for their clubs in the same state of health? Dunno... but they didn’t play those two and the Ferns simply weren’t going to be as good without them. Nor without Olivia Chance who missed the third match due to a pre-arranged early flight back to Scotland due to Celtic’s derby game against Rangers taking place on a Friday night local time. Chance played ninety minutes in midfield as Celtic won 3-0, if you were wondering. Also credit to Celtic because they did release LC for the USA games when they didn’t have to. The Ferns kinda owed them that one.

How many players have to be missing for people to realise that the team on display is not the Ferns at full strength? Because we’re talking about at least three starters missing on each occasion. Possibly as many as five or six which is literally half the team. We don’t have inexhaustible depth. Key players being absent is going to affect the team’s chances.

Take the goalkeeping situation, for example. Vic Esson has worn the gloves for 5/6 of the positive results under Klimková. Erin Nayler is a very good keeper with heaps of experience but Esson has been special. It almost feels rude to do this but here you go...

Starting Keepers During Klimková Era:

Victoria Esson: 9 GP | 2 W | 3 D | 5 L | 5 GF | 8 GA | -3 GD | 0.8 GA/G | 4 CS

Erin Nayler: 10 GP | 1 W | 0 D | 9 L | 4 GF | 32 GA | -28 GD | 3.2 GA/G | 0 CS

Anna Leat: 2 GP | 0 W | 0 D | 2 L | 1 GF | 3 GA | -2 GD | 1.5 GA/G | 0 CS

Nayler has had a nasty habit of playing against some of the tougher opponents, including all three games against the USA during this spell (accounting for 14 of those 32 goals against). Even still, those numbers are so drastically in Esson’s favour that it cannot simply be a matter of opposition. As good as Nayler is as a shot-stopper, Esson is slightly better... as well as being much more reliable in other aspects (high balls, distribution, getting off her line, communication, etc – although Leat is the best passer of the trio).

Not having Vic Esson limits the Ferns’ potential in any game. Not having Ria Percival limits it even further. Not having Bott and Riley and Chance and Longo takes things down even deeper. We can rightly be optimistic about some of the young players coming through these days but that doesn’t mean they’re ready to replace international veterans.

That includes the clamouring for Wellington Phoenix players to be picked. Mickey Foster made her debut against Argentina in Hamilton and looked decent. Well worthy of the opportunity. But she’s not Ali Riley and is not going to cover for Ali Riley’s production. Nor will Milly Clegg be the answer (yet) to the lack of goals. It’s a pretty big leap from the A-League to the World Cup – particularly when we’re talking about the bottom team in that competition. Players like Foster and Clegg may yet make the World Cup squad... but they’re not the silver-bullet answers to the team’s problems.

Also... The Niche Cache has been championing both those players since long before they joined the Nix so hopefully that adds a bit more credibility to this next point: by all means make the argument for both of them getting Ferns consideration but save some of that energy for Marisa van der Meer who is every bit as deserving based on her Phoenix performances. Just sayin’. Also if it’s immediate attacking impact that’s needed then Mickey Robertson is the one to look at.

Another thing that needs emphasising with these Footy Ferns woes is that despite having a reputation for picking the same players all the time that’s not really true. The presence of a number of familiar veterans makes it seems like this Ferns team has a heap of continuity about it but there are eight players who have retired since the last World Cup in 2019 (Anna Green, Nicole Stratford, Abby Erceg, Emma Kete, Sarah Gregorius, Rosie White, Katie Duncan & Steph Skilton). Four of them were centurions (Erceg, Gregorius, White & Duncan). Also two others haven’t played for the Ferns again since, being depth players who’ve been pushed back in the queue (Sarah Morton & Nadia Olla). And that’s not even including Amber Hearn who missed that World Cup with the ACL injury that caused her retirement. A centurion and the team’s all-time leading goal-scorer.

That’s quite a lot of change. Way more than can be handled without it having a flow-on effect with results. Take a look at the players who’ve replaced that lot and they’re mostly youngsters. Liz Anton, Claudia Bunge, Malia Steinmetz, Jacqui Hand, Grace Jale, Mackenzie Barry, Kate Taylor, Indi Riley, Ava Collins, Gabi Rennie, Grace Wisnewski, Grace Neville... all aged 24 or younger. Sixteen players got starts during this window. Ten of them have 50 or fewer caps. Eight of them have 30 or fewer caps. Five of them have fewer than twenty caps. There’s been a mini-refresh with this squad over recent years. It happened by necessity but one of the consequences has been a number of solid attacking prospects being thrust into roles beyond what they’re ready for. Because there’s nobody else. Not quite yet anyway.

If you remember the 2019 World Cup, Tom Sermanni managed to talk a couple players out of retirement to partake in that one. Gregorius, Duncan, Kete. They also had Hannah Wilkinson and Liv Chance on the comeback from ACL injuries while Amber Hearn missed out for the same reason – and other than Erceg there’s no more valuable player to have ducked off the scene in the last half-decade. That tourney required a mad scramble for attackers... and the stocks are even lighter these days. Potential, sure. There’s heaps of that. But this is about having success at a World Cup that’s five months away.

Further tactical and performance yarns will follow in part two. That’s where we’ll get into the mangroves on all this, what’s trying to be achieved and what’s going wrong and all that. But in order to have a proper yarn about the state of the Football Ferns we’ve gotta understand where the team is at in its journey, as well as what they’re up against. It’s a tough slog. There’s no quick solution. The Football Ferns, like the All Whites, like so many other kiwi sports teams, have to work harder with less in order to compete on the global stage. It just seems like we oughta keep that stuff in mind more often, you know?

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