Hypothetically, if the Football Ferns weren’t co-hosting this World Cup then what would your expectations be? We’re talking about a team that’s never won a World Cup game before, one which is going to name its squad on the back of a ten-game winless streak during which they’ve only scored two goals so it’s probably best to leave that as a rhetorical question.

A further thought experiment... were they not co-hosting and if Oceania didn’t have an automatic spot would they have even qualified? Well, yeah they might have. The World Cup has expanded to 32 teams this time so they’d have at least been in the mix. Judging by Papua New Guinea’s pathway representing OFC, they’d have needed to get past Panama and Paraguay to make it and that’s within the realms of their abilities for sure (albeit no guarantee). But those previous 24-team World Cups might have been cutting it fine without the automatic spot, let’s be honest.

So we’ve got a team that’s a fringe qualifier for these things who, because of the nature of their confederation, don’t really get to play any meaningful games outside of major tournaments which they generally struggle at, has seen a third of their previous World Cup since retire and has been losing a lot more than they win for a number of years, with a limited number of overseas pros and an annoying trend of injuries... and the only thing really going for them heading into the World Cup is that they’ll be playing at home. Except they also haven’t won a home international since 2012 (when they beat China twice in a two-game series) hence that home-field advantage might not actually be all it’s cracked up to be. The host-seeding for the draw certainly is as the Ferns have been allowed to dodge playing any contenders in the group stage but that’s about all they’ve got for good omens.

Nah, look, the fact is we’re just gonna have to do something we should’ve done a long time ago... we’re gonna have to start looking at the Football Ferns as underdogs again. It’s only fair. In the excitement of the impending World Cup we’ve all been piling on pressure (including internal pressure from within the squad) on a team whose results simply have never justified those expectations in any way, shape, or form. It’s an unrealistic mindset. The logic ain’t logicking. And it’s clearly having a negative effect.

It’s the lack of goals most of all. The players are in their own heads about it, causing them to lose their hard-earned identity as a team. In the quest to push for more attacking prowess they’re allowing panic and impatience into their play which in turn is seeping energy away from their defensive solidity. The coach knows this. Jitka Klimková spoke after the Nigeria game about the team lacking their usual grittiness and failing to put their bodies on the line the way that their opponents did...

That can’t be allowed to happen. This team is not a good attacking team, very few kiwi football teams ever have been, and as much as they’re striving for improvements they can still only work with what they’ve got. But the Ferns have always been a side that gives it a hundy, turning up the physicality and being tough to break down at the back. At the moment it feels like they’re throwing the baby out with the bathwater and losing too much of that identity.

That’s all down to this pressure that they’re under. Pressure which the Fernies don’t really seem to be able to cope with. They do have a lot of younger players in the squad at the moment, nine of the sixteen who played against Nigeria have fewer than 30 caps, but there are also established leaders around them so that shouldn’t be an excuse. Some of it has to fall upon the coach as well, granted Jitka Klimková’s not really doing anything different to what Tom Sermanni did before her (Sermanni’s tenure ended with a 12-game winless streak). Losing is a habit and the Ferns are stumbling for solutions. Yet maybe they’re also simply not that good?

It’s that same idea again about how quickly women’s football is growing. Ten years ago the Ferns were a stronger force than they are now, that is true. They made the knockouts of the 2012 London Olympics, the only time they’ve done that at a major tournament. But lots has changed in the past ten years. Ten years ago Nigeria probably didn’t have players at Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Benfica, Rosengård, at several NWSL clubs, and all across the French top division. You don’t have to get worse to fall behind when everybody else is on the improve.

There are deeper issues at work here about the ways in which New Zealand Football has let down the women’s side of the sport (and the men’s side too lol). The Ferns are at the top of the pyramid and susceptible to all the foundational bricks beneath it so that’s where attention should be direction. Things have been improving. Having a Wellington Phoenix team is huge step in the right direction although it’s too soon to see the full impact of that upon the national team (when Nix developed players start moving to Europe, as we’ve seen with the men’s side, that’s when things will start to sparkle).

That’s a whole other article and one which isn’t worth writing. The bit that matters is that despite the once-in-a-lifetime nature of co-hosting the World Cup, the Football Ferns aren’t going to be in a perfect space to take advantage of that on the pitch.

Okay... and what? Some of the best players and nations on the planet will still be hanging out in Aotearoa bringing massive focus upon the sport. God forbid the Ferns endure the worst case scenario and lose all three games but if that does happen there’ll still plenty of inspiration to go around for all the youngsters (and oldsters) around the nation and beyond.

Bummer though it’d be, the success of the World Cup doesn’t depend on the fate of the host nations. Case and point: Qatar were bloody rubbish at the last men’s WC despite having more than three times as long to prepare... and that World Cup was awesome (on the pitch, that is. Egregious human rights abuses and mass corruption did soooorta spoil the entire journey leading up to it, as we’re all well aware). And anyway Australia just beat England in a friendly on the same day that the Ferns lost to Nigeria so they can carry that weight for the both of us.

All those expectations should have now fizzled out, allowing us to go into the World Cup with freshly reset hopes. If the Ferns keep losing when it matters then that’ll be because that’s where they’re at - an accurate indication of their place in world footy. If they bag a result or two, which is still more than possible, then we can celebrate those with all the glee of the glorious sporting upset. What we can’t do is keep expecting them to be something they’re not because it’s driving everyone bonkers.

Rightio, with that all in the tank... the game against Iceland was actually quite decent, believe it or not. They were able to break the goal drought with a tidy Hannah Wilkinson header from a smooth Michaela Foster corner kick. Also conceded a sloppy one from a long throw and were fortunate not to lose it late on but the 1-1 draw didn’t overly flatter them. Plus, you know, this game was designed as preparation for facing fellow Scandies Norway at the World Cup and if the Ferns can emerge with a 1-1 draw from that one too then we’re in a great place (note that Iceland followed this game up by beating Switzerland 2-1, another of the Ferns’ WC opponents).

Iceland didn’t qualify for the World Cup but that’s only because of their misfortune in being from Europe. They came second in their group behind Netherlands, who were the beaten finalists at the last World Cup, after scoring 25 goals and conceded just three across eight games, defeating every team they faced other than the Dutch but that was only good enough to put them into a playoff. There they drew Portugal and were beaten 4-1 after extra time (with Portugal going on to qualify for the main event via the intercontinental playoffs in Aotearoa recently). Portugal of course beat the Fernies 5-0 last window.

That was meant to be the more difficult of the two games in this window and the Ferns handled it well. Michaela Foster looked sharp on starting debut, reflected by the assist for the goal. She did get shredded a couple of times by Sveindís Jane Jónsdóttir (who plays for Wolfsburg and will therefore have a Champions League semi-final to play before the month is through), a weakness against pace that has been clear at times in the A-League too, but otherwise Fozzy handled it nicely and with an impressive mentality which has allowed her to rise up the levels pretty smoothly over the last two years. Not sure if it’s enough for starting eleven status but her efforts do now open the door to possibly using CJ Bott or Ali Riley further forward for another variation.

However the two brightest sparks were Rebekah Stott and Victoria Esson, neither of whom were fit for the previous tour. Their return had a huge effect. That calmness and composure at the back simply wasn’t there without them. Esson’s presence has been inspiring solid performances for a couple of years now, hence how she’s won that starting gig. She’s the most commanding presence we’ve got between the sticks. Shot-stopping par excellence. Not as good with the distribution as Anna Leat but she’s our best keeper against the aerial ball and she sweeps very well outside her area. No single player seems to have more of a positive impact on the team.

As for Rebekah Stott, we haven’t seen as much prominence from Stotty lately because of the whole cancer recovery journey but she is the central defender operating at the highest club standard (unless JK can beg Abby Erceg back into the mix). Stott plays with great assurance, seems to be able to handle different tempos, and brings quality on the ball – love seeing the return of those trademarked step-ups into the midfield.

That ball-playing stuff is pretty important. In fact it’s so important that Katie Bowen seems to have nudged ahead of Claudia Bunge after getting both the starts alongside Stotty in Turkey. Except that Bowen’s distribution wasn’t actually that good across these two games and her converted midfield skillset is part of why the team wasn’t as gritty in their penalty area as the coach demanded. Bowen’s being asked to do things she’s never really had to do in her career before. Even at Melbourne City this past season... most of that’s been in a back three and there’s not that much backs-to-the-wall desperate defending that a finals team has to do. Would not be surprised at all to see Bunge/Stott united for the World Cup (as they were the last time we played Norway).

Up the other end, the Ferns looked useful from set pieces against Iceland leading to that goal from a corner. They also had a lil more juice from open play thanks to the inclusion of Jacqui Hand up front. Her clever movement and facilitating mindset helped bring some flow to the team. Only a little, as her touch wasn’t always perfect and physically she’s not exactly a heavyweight, but a little improvement is a lot more than we’ve been getting in that spot lately.

Paige Satchell seemed to have that spot on lock when she started twelve games in a row earlier under Klimková. Satch has only made one start from the last seven since. Gabi Rennie had a go for a few games but her impressive off-ball industry was let down by the on-ball stuff. She’s just not quite at the standard required yet. Give it a few more years. Meanwhile Ava Collins didn’t even make this squad, dropping out so that Milly Clegg could make a couple of late cameos off the bench. Didn’t see much of Clegg in the games however the key thing for her would’ve been what went on at training and the fact she featured in both is a good sign.

So some nice mahi from Jacqui Hand... although the attacking efforts of the first half weren’t really matched in the second half against Iceland. Probably because Liv Chance went off injured just before the break. Very worrying to see her with an injured knee so close to the World Cup – although JK later confirmed she was walking around without pain or discomfort so the signs are positive. The last update was that they were awaiting the results of an MRI but Chance was there on the sideline for the Nigeria game. No braces or crutches or anything. Hopefully a bullet dodged there, Matrix styles. Because the Ferns scored once in the 45 minutes that Chance played and not at all in the 135 minutes that she didn’t this series.

Here’s one for ya: Since the last World Cup, the Football Ferns have not scored in any of the last six games in which Liv Chance didn’t start.

That brings us to the second game against Nigeria and if they could have carried on the momentum of that Iceland game then this would’ve been a fantastic series, a wonderful rebound after the troubles of the last couple. But that’s not what happened.

A very positive first twenty-odd minutes had the Ferns looking like the comfortable favourites until they failed to turn that into enough proper chances and then Nigeria went and scored with their first decent attempt in the 34th minute. From there it was the Nigerians who were clearly the stronger side. They won the midfield battle. They defended stoutly against an abundance of crosses. Then they were able to score a crucial second goal early in the second half before polishing it off with a third in stoppage time.

And you know what? Their superstar forward Asisat Oshoala of Barcelona didn’t even do anything. They handled her fine... it was the overlapping fullbacks and the flowing midfielders that got to the Ferns. The 3-0 scoreline was rough, twos would have been more reflective of the game, but either way they lost and with that the momentum of the Iceland result fades into thin air.

Now, Nigeria may be ranked about twenty spots below the Ferns but that’s only because the ratings are lying. Same as they lie about where the Ferns are at, only in the opposite direction. Nigeria only came fourth at the last African Cup of Nations but they are the most traditionally successful African nation overall and made the knockouts of the 2019 World Cup. That’s more pedigree than the NZ side have got, let’s be clear about that. Same as how they have more players at stronger clubs.

Initially the Ferns had them where they wanted them but it was a different story as Nigeria gained in confidence after the goal, passing through pressure and finding space out wide. It was frustrating to see the kiwi side abandon the high press in this game. It was even more frustrating to see soft, preventable goals being conceded - including a simple header from a corner to get things started, a turning point in the game.

Compare that to the other side, as Jitka Klimková did, and Nigeria weren’t making those mistakes. Led by 39 year old Onome Ebi, preparing for her sixth World Cup (you don’t get to six World Cups by finding a golden ticket in a chocolate bar, that’s for sure), who also scored the first goal, they were sturdy and aggressive. At first the Fernies found some joy with long throws and deep crosses that weren’t quite dealt with. Yet that only encouraged them in all the wrong ways. What happened as the game went on was that those crosses started being sent in earlier and from deeper. Impatient and unimaginative stuff. In the past Klimková has stressed the need for getting behind the defensive line before crossing but the pressure of the situation got to them there as well.

Occasionally Grace Jale was able to sneak a clever low pass into some space but only occasionally. Hannah Wilkinson was nullified by a defence that matched (nay, bettered) her physicality and JK probably needed to switch that up sooner than she did. Although that ain’t to say that the coach did nothing. Jale’s most incisive moments came after a switch to a 4-2-3-1 in which she was in the ten role. Satchell wide right, Hand wide left, Wilkinson up front alone. That did seem to wrestle back at least a little of the momentum and given the team’s particular worries it wouldn’t be the worst thing to stick with that... ideally with Liv Chance at the ten and Jale wide right. Or even up front instead of Wilkie, dunno. See how it goes.

Gabi Rennie played the first half, Paige Satchell played the second. Same issues remained for each. Ali Riley was surprisingly poor. Oh and Betsy Hassett had to be replaced with what looked to be a nasty rib injury as an opponent fell on her. Just one game without a new injury crisis, please. Hassett’s a tough nugget and that shouldn’t be something that rules her out of the cup (plus her club season is over, allowing time to recover) but, mate, it’s sure not nice to see.

The one main consolation is that this did appear to be more of a match-up problem than a talent problem. It’s not that the Nigerians were so much better technically, although they did have a few game-changers that we’d absolutely beg for these days, more that they played a certain way which nullified NZ’s strengths and exposed some weaknesses. Iceland couldn’t rough it up at the back in the same way, for example, even though they have the best technical skill of the trio.

The Ferns also don’t have much experience against African nations and what they’ve got isn’t great: losing 2-1 to Cameroon at the 2019 World Cup (in another game we were ‘supposed’ to win but didn’t). The previous meeting against an African team was also Cameroon but that was way back at the 2012 Olympics. A 3-1 win on that occasion... though as we’ve established much has changed in the intervening decade. Luckily, there are no African teams in the Ferns’ group. Just a couple Europeans and an Asian side – in keeping with the kinds of teams they’re used to playing against.

The enforced change of Rennie for Chance was the only difference between the two games, suggesting that Klimková wasn’t worried about managing minutes this time. This was best elevens all the way. Now, whether that best eleven is still the same next time they gather is another matter entirely. For starters, CJ Bott and Ria Percival should be back in the mix. Maaaybe Annalie Longo too (still think it’s gonna take a miracle). But, yeah, here’s the baseline that we’ve got at the moment...

Everything’s up in the air when the team is losing though. Before the squad is named, contending players will start amassing for an extended training camp starting on May 1 in Auckland. All the A-Leaguers will be done by then, the Europeans will take a little longer, the American-based players (which mostly just means Ali Riley, given the college stuff isn’t of professional priority) won’t be there until very late as the NWSL plays right through with only a fortnight’s rest for the tournament itself.

Lots of time to work on tactical ideas. There are positions in the squad still to be sorted out. There were six players who didn’t get minutes in Turkey: Meikayla Moore, Erin Nayler, Anna Leat, Kate Taylor, Indi Riley, and Liz Anton. There are several others who’ve played under Klimková but weren’t in this group (including a couple of wounded soldiers). Lots of contenders and nobody is safe. Trust that folks are doing the best they can and you can’t feasibly expect any more than that, even if their best isn’t good enough.

Thus leaving the rest of us with two options: we can spittle and roar and get all angry about the Football Ferns not living up to our unrealistic expectations and demand knee-jerk changes (that might end up doing more harm than good and which certainly won’t ease any of the pressure). Or we can chill and accept that this team isn’t as good as we thought they were and adjust our expectations accordingly. Then cheer them on regardless.

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