A month ago things seemed pretty swell for the Welly Nix lads. They’d just ground out close home wins against Newcastle Jets and Sydney FC (one in Wellington, one in Auckland) and were hanging about in a three-way tie for third place (but sitting fifth because of their goal difference) only three points behind Adelaide Utd in second whom they were playing in their very next match. It hadn’t been a flowing season by any means but things were nicely poised for the run-in and the finals series to follow.

Since then... they’ve been smoked 5-1 by Adelaide, blew a half-time lead at home to lose 2-1 to Melbourne Victory, and were smoked 4-1 by Melbourne City. The Nix are now as close to third place as they are to last place: a six point swing in either direction. Funnily enough, results elsewhere have been pretty convenient so they’re still in fifth place despite it all... but the buffer has eroded and a bad weekend could see them tumble out of the top six entirely.

The Phoenix face Brisbane Roar at Eden Park in their final home game. Then it’s away to Western Sydney and Macarthur to finish the regulars. Hopefully there’ll be at least one more fixture afterwards but these next three matches will determine that.

It’s a long sight from where things began with the club looking as buzzed for success as they ever have been. Continuity and quality signings. Ufuk Talay entering his fourth season in charge and the first with a full slate of proper home fixtures. It’s also probably Talay’s last year but that’s just one more reason to make it count. Having won a finals game since 2012, everything pointed towards this being the one where it finally all clicked. And... maybe it still will. But it hasn’t happened yet and the rancid nature of the last three games is hardly encouraging. So what’s held them back? Let us count the ways.

Trash Finishing

To the surprise of absolutely nobody, the Wellington Phoenix woes begin (but don’t end) with how bloody difficult they make putting that ball into the pesky net. It’s a funky twist on that tale that they’ve actually scored in every single game, the only team in the A-League Men’s that can say that... but they should have bagged so many more than they have done and their inability to put teams away when they’re on top has been a killer – we’ll come to the blown leads next.

The exception to the rule is Oskar Zawada, the big Pole who has scored 13 times this season – only Jamie Maclaren and Jason Cummings have more g’s. Zawada’s aerial ability and physical presence have given Uffie something he’s been searching for in his number nines from day one and has also unlocked the team’s crossing ability. Callan Elliot leads the way with four assists and he has a whole lot of Zawada to thank for that. Zawada’s getting into good positions and he’s finishing nicely. Always gets a couple of big chances per game and he usually scores one of them (although a strange caveat is that he’s yet to score a brace – his 13 goals have come in 13 different games).

But after him there’s a huge drop-off. Bozhidar Kraev has had his moments, although those seem to have dried up lately. Ben Waine was his usual clinical self until he left for Plymouth Argyle. After that it’s cobwebs and tumbleweed...

This is a team that has seen four different blokes miss penalties: Kraev, Barbarouses, Zawada, and Sasse. Those were the first four spotties that they won. It was starting to look cursed but since then Zawada has scored a couple and Rufer buried another. They’re 3/7 from the spot overall.

Things are just as creaky from open play. Kosta Barbarouses has missed a couple of howlers along the way while Yan Sasse and David Ball have also been extremely wasteful. These are important imports/veterans who need to be firing for the team to get it going and they’re not. Even if just one of them were chipping in with 5+ goals then it’d be a different story. For all three to be struggling really leaves a chasm of conversion, especially with youngsters Ben Old and Oskar van Hattum not exactly known for their finishing ability either. Sneaky factoid: Ben Old has taken 17 total shots this season. 16 were off target. The other one was a goal.

So many games could’ve swung in this team’s favour if they’d simply been more clinical.

Defensive Rotations

If you surveyed the fanbase as to the top choice back four, chances are you’ll end up with: Callan Elliot, Scott Wootton, Tim Payne, Sam Sutton. Obviously Uffie’s opinion matters more and there are certainly cases to be made for Josh Laws and Lucas Mauragis within that. But for the sake of this argument go on and guess how many games that CE/SW/TP/SS back four has started together this season. The answer? One. A 2-2 draw away to Melbourne City in game four.

A lot of that has been down to Sam Sutton working through a few injuries/illnesses but even then the other three have only all started a third of the rest of the games. Wootton has had a couple of injury stints. Payne has occasionally been tried at right back edging Elliot to the bench. Josh Laws has made 15 starts. Lucas Mauragis has made 16. Finn Surman and Nikko Boxall have also had a few spare opportunities (might see Boxall get his first start on the weekend with Laws suspended and Wootton injured). Point being that the back four has been in constant flux all term so it’s really no wonder that a team lacking consistency in selection would also lack consistency in performance.

Especially when you consider that Elliot, Sutton, and Mauragis are all young and inexperienced options. Each is also probably better at attacking from their positions than defending from them, although they’ve all had some golden instances at each so this isn’t about talent. It’s about week-in, week-out reliability and younger dudes are going to have a few ups and downs in there. That’s all good if there’s a sturdy base around them... but that’s not been the case, has it?

The one constant has been Oli Sail playing every minute so far and he’s been wobbly himself. His form has picked up since a poor start but Sail has still sprinkled in some very significant mistakes now and then. He’s got a save percentage of 68.9%, the worst season of his A-League career.

None of these are killer weaknesses on their own however combine them all together and what you’ve got is an unfortunately soft Wellington Phoenix defensive unit. Combine that with their attack not capitalising on their best efforts and that’s how a team that plays perfectly sweet footy through most of the field can let themselves down with inefficiencies in both penalty areas.

Fluctuating Imports

Oskar Zawada is beyond reproach, probably the player of the season as things stand. Which is cool because he’s still under contract for next season, as are all the imports except for Yan Sasse. That might not be as much of a slam dunk for the rest of them as it is for Zawada though.

It did take Zawada a few games to get settled in. He didn’t score in any of his first five matches and only lasted more than sixty minutes in one of them. You’ve gotta give new imports some room though, and OZ has responded with a goal contribution in 14 of the 17 games in which he’s subsequently played. His hold-up play is fantastic. Great focal point presence for the team. Can’t say a bad word about the fella.

While Zawada was getting settled, Bozhidar Kraev was looking like an absolute bossman with his direct runs and eye for goal. He scored in four consecutive matches at one stage... but he’s not been the same dude since. It might be that Zawada’s form dragged some of the focus away from BK. Could be that other teams have adjusted to what he does having had a chance to scout him. Could merely be a fault of the wider team’s struggles beyond his control, dunno. Yet whatever the reasoning he’s only served up 2 goals and 1 assist from his last 14 appearances. He just doesn’t seem to be influencing games to the same degree that he was and less so lately than ever.

At least BK’s had some shining moments though. Can’t say as much about Yan Sasse, who was sent off on debut and at one point dipped into the reserves to find some form (which he did, dominating that game in second gear). You’re going to get something baffling and something brilliant in consecutive involvements when it comes to Yan Sasse. That’s the experience. And he’s trending upwards as his silky dribbling skills and eye for a clever slip-pass giving the team some much needed variation in recent weeks... it’s just that he still hasn’t been able to turn his promise into enough tangible end product. Two goals and two assists aren’t quite justifying it yet. But, yeah, fair play, he has been better lately. If only that wasn’t coinciding with Kraev being at his least impactful. They just can’t seem to get everyone firing at once.

On that note, this has been by far David Ball’s worst season in yellow and black. His first two seasons he had 10 goal contributions (goals plus assists) in each. Last season he had eight of them. This season... only two. One goal and one assist. He’s not strictly a goal-scorer so we can forgive that aspect but he’s not setting them up either. Is it the sore foot? Is it that Zawada’s changed the attacking focus away from Ball’s tricky, tight-area strengths? Whatever the reason, the outcome is very concerning.

David Ball Goals + Assists Per 90 Minutes

2019-20 – 0.45 (5G/5A/1999min)

2020-21 – 0.44 (6G/4A/2040min)

2021-22 – 0.38 (2G/6A/1918min)

2022-23 – 0.12 (1G/1A/1447min)

Meanwhile their lone defensive import, Scott Wootton, hasn’t exactly been bossing it either. It’s tricky when the cast keeps rotating and Wootton has had a couple of injury breaks himself, as already discussed. Even after he returned from six games out he still looked kinda creaky for several weeks. Reasons exist for all these ideas but the bottom line with Scott Wootton is that he hasn’t yet had that Steven Taylor level impact at the back. Doesn’t have that same commanding presence and doesn’t seem to lift the team around him in that way.

Blown Leads

The Wellington Phoenix have scored the opening goal in 17 of their 23 games but have only gone on to win eight of them. 23 points have been lost from winning positions. Only five times have they been trailing at half-time, never in a home game, yet they have eight losses overall including three home matches in which they scored first and couldn’t hang on. They actually had a 13-game streak of never trailing at the midway point and only came out of those games with 6 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats. These are fine margins leading to enormous ramifications.

Speaks for itself, really. The reasons for that are mostly down to that aforementioned sloppiness in either penalty area however you also have to wonder about the mentality of the group when this keeps happening to them. A lack of ruthlessness, fragile confidence, and maybe a bit too much timidity at key moments. Another area where a bloke like Steven Taylor was fantastic and now that’s missing. Having said that, there are still some large personalities in that group so now would be a rather good time for them to step up and take control.

No Extended Hot Streak

Ufuk Talay’s first season in charge began with four straight defeats before they went on a nine-game unbeaten streak immediately afterwards, taking 21 points from a possible 27. They also had a four-game win streak later on.

In Talay’s second season they only won one of their first eight games but ended on an 11-game unbeaten streak with 6 wins and 5 draws (ultimately one too many draws as they missed the finals by one measly point).

His third year had the standard slow start with one win from six... then they won three in a row and carried that into a seven-game unbeaten streak claiming 17/21 points from that stretch.

This season... there’s been nothing longer than a four-game unbeaten streak. Only three times have they won consecutive games. That’s also how often they’ve lost consecutive games but you get the idea. Past years have had similar wobbles along the way but there’s always been that one hot streak when it all came together and they cashed in. This season has been ridiculously close with only Melbourne City and, more recently, Adelaide United really rising above the crowd. One of those familiar extended unbeaten runs would have set up their whole campaign... but it hasn’t happened.

It could have. Already mentioned that spell of 13 straight games in which they were leading or level at half-time. Alas, they let a couple too many of those slip through the fingers and now here we are.

Tactical Flexibility

Very few of these issues discussed so far have been tactical things. Uffie’s preferred 4-2-2-2 shape is going to stick around regardless (although he’s not been averse to closing with a back three lately). It’s what the players know, it’s worked for them in the past, and it also leaves plenty of room for internal variations. The dynamic of the front two can change. The tens can play wide or through the centre. The midfielders can sit or press. Direct passing versus patient build-up. Overlapping fullbacks. There’s enough going on there that minor tweaks can be made whenever needed.

And yet in no way do they have the same tactical flexibility that was available last season. The bro may not have solved the xG crisis at the club but Jaushua Sotirio was so handy for this team as a speedy vertical runner, someone who could get in behind high lines and case carnage. You’d often see him brought into the starting line-up for specific match-ups and they simply don’t have that option since he’s left. There is nobody of that profile in this current squad.

David Ball and Kosta Barbarouses drift and facilitate. Oskar Zawada is a target man. Bozhidar Kraev likes to attack on the dribble, angling inside. Yan Sasse does similar from the other side only with way more wiliness. Ben Old is a technical dribbler too. There’s no vertical threat and that’s kept them from being able to make that adjustment... and he’s not the only one. Ben Waine, man. Initially it looked like they’d absorbed his absence nicely but now they’d bite your hand off for a bloke like him who can convert a half-chance into a goal. The same is true when utilising your bench too – you don’t just want to throw on fresh legs, you also want to throw on fresh looks, players who can do something different to those they’re replacing to keep defenders on edge. There’s better depth this year but less variety.

The Solutions

Okay then, where do we go from here? That’s the big question because three wins to polish things off and it all looks very different. They’d go scooting up the table a spot or two and set themselves up as a team nobody wants to catch in the finals. Or they could go on the way they have been, limp out of the top six entirely, and farewell their best-ever manager without a single finals victory to his name.

Whichever way they go probably has less to do with tactics or technique and much more to do with psychology. Finishing chances is a confidence game, for example. The more negative energy you’re carrying, the more doubt in your mind, the more likely you are to miss. The penalty taking dramas of some of these lads betrays that brittle confidence but the good news is that sometimes all it takes is one sweet strike and it all changes. Kosta or Bally might just nail one top bins against Brisbane and the whole narrative can change.

Frankly, they’ll have to. Someone has to, at least. This is hero time where the ramifications of each game can be season-defining and the blokes that step up and own these moments get to do the thing that people dream about while kicking a ball around the backyard as kids. There’s still time for one more mini hot streak. There’s room for new leaders to rise. Time for folks to turn their shaky form around. Aside from a couple of hefty away defeats they’ve actually been pretty decent throughout, it’s just those small margins that need tweaking. Achievable improvements. The Welly Nix haven’t done that with any sort of consistency yet... but hey maybe they just like the long hustle.

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