PART 1: THE WOMEN

On the one hand the Welly Nix blokes have made four out of the last five finals series and only missed out by one point in the other. On the other hand the Welly Nix blokes have been one-and-done in each of those knockout appearances and remain without a finals game since 2012. There’s now a sustained history of competitiveness with this team and yet they also seem to have hit a wall. Each of those seasons is its own encapsulated thing and each of those teams had their own strengths and weaknesses... but a lack of goals in those crunch games is one thing that’s always persisted.

Now there’s a new coach in town. A new coach who is also the old assistant. There’s a lot to talk about with the make-up of the squad but by far the most important factor here is the elevation of Giancarlo ‘Chief’ Italiano into the manager’s seat... and already it’s shaping to be a fascinating experience. Chiefy’s appointment got the write-up treatment last month when that was announced so no need to repeat the background yarns. We’re also a few months away from seeing what his Nix team will look like. No answers there yet. But we have been offered a few cheeky clues. For example...

Chiefy (after the Mo Al-Taay signing): “I don’t want to delve too much into it but the starting point, in terms of formation, will change and it will suit the players more in what I have available. You’ll see that I really put a lot of thought into the system and the best attributes of the players. It’s taken me a bit of time to get to a point where I’m comfortable but when you see how we start next year I think it’ll make a bit more sense.”

You see about the ‘fascinating experience’ thing now? Italiano started out as an analyst with the club before being promoted up to Uffie’s top assistant and has had a large say in a lot of the team’s recent recruitment (most of which has been really good btw). He’s a clever bloke and he’s got ideas. This train is not going to keep chugging along on the same tracks, the 4-2-2-2 formation is going to be adapted into something that apparently better suits his players. Speaking of his players, the state of the squad means there’s more than enough room to put his stamp on the group through recruitment whilst still maintaining a solid core of returning players. Chief has also re-emphasised the club’s youth pathways after an A-League campaign in which there were no new academy debutants (after a whopping six the term before) and he’s also got plans for the one spare import spot. This is going to be a very funky offseason.

Wellington Phoenix Blokes Contracted Players

• 2025-26: Alex Rufer

• 2024-25: Tim Payne, Scott Wootton (I), David Ball (I), Sam Sutton, Finn Surman, Oskar van Hattum, Mo Al-Taay

• 2023-24: Kosta Barbarouses, Bozhidar Kraev (I), Oskar Zawada (I), Ben Old, Alex Paulsen, Nico Pennington

• Departing: Oli Sail (Perth Glory), Clayton Lewis (Macarthur), Steven Ugarkovic (Melbourne City, probs), Lucas Mauragis (Newcastle Jets), Callan Elliot, Joshua Laws, Yan Sasse, Nikko Boxall

After four years of not quite hitting the heights they were capable of, the time is probably right to switch up the tactics. We don’t know what that’ll look like yet but there’s a strong argument that the 4-2-2-2 had run its course. In particular they never really had the wide players to fill it out last season, while Oskar Zawada’s complementary strikers all struggled for consistency. The young fullbacks were able to level up with their crossing (eight combined assists between Callan Elliot, Sam Sutton & Lucas Mauragis) however they were also often ruthlessly counter-attacked in the spaces left behind them – especially by Adelaide United, including in that finals defeat. The midfield balance wasn’t always there. Guys like David Ball, Kosta Barbarouses, and Bozhidar Kraev perhaps weren’t able to operate in their best positions. And, ultimately, the team just did not achieve what they were capable of.

So what shape might suit better? Chiefy ruled out the possibility of a back three but he has suggested that the guys like Tim Payne and Sam Sutton (“and some of the other boys”) will find themselves in sort of hybrid positions. Payne and Sutton are likely to be the wide defenders so that’s a sneaky one. Obviously both Elliot and Mauragis have left and with the remaining import target being a central defender that probably means a return for Right Back T.Payne.

It’s also the case that the two sixes in midfield may not last. Clayton Lewis and Steven Ugarkovic are gone but the Nix have managed to re-sign both Alex Rufer and Nico Pennington along with bringing in Mohamed Al-Taay, an Australian defensive midfielder out of Newcastle Jets (who worked with Chiefy at NPL level when he was a teenager), known for his hard tackling. Bit of a Cam Devlin throwback albeit a very different player in other ways. Al-Taay has only played 29 ALM games and will be 23yo when next season begins. The hope is that he’s on the brink of a breakthrough at this level same as Devlin was when he made the voyage across the Tasman Sea.

Whether he can live up to that or not, Al-Taay a young player on the edge of the league whom Giancarlo Italiano is going to give an opportunity to. He’s also a defensive midfielder in a team that didn’t really have one of those last season, even though their best football under Talay mostly happened with Cam Devlin involved. With Al-Taay on board, they should have the balance to be able to play three through the middle if they want. This signing already tells us plenty about how Chiefy wants his team to look.

As does bringing back Nico Pennington, whose quotes in the club announcement were all about how he felt he should’ve gotten more minutes last season, while Italiano’s words suggested he’s soon going to get his wish. Italiano also made the valid point that Pennington has the ability to score goals from midfield which none of the previous options really did – unless Lewis was lining up a free kick. Individually, none of these three are as good as either Ugarkovic or Lewis... but ‘balance’ is a word that Italiano keeps using and in that regard they miiiight just have subtly improved.

Al-Taay is the enforcer in the middle who shields the defensive line, sweet as. Speaks for itself. Pennington is a very loose player who’ll take some risks that don’t pay off. He’s got good passing range and his corner kicks are top quality. Very mobile in the middle. Also a bit reckless, at least in what we’ve seen from him so far (hence why he got stuck at the back of the queue last term). Rufer is the complete opposite. He’s not reckless at all (apart from the odd late tackle). His whole shtick is about control, even when he pushes a pass it’s usually a controlled risk – like those diagonal chips over the defensive line that he loves. Lots of safe-option passing and he tends to defend underneath rather than rushing his man. But, again, it’s about balance. Italiano is giving himself options by bringing together players who can all offer something unique to each other.

All the chat seems to be that they’ll bring in a fourth central midfielder from the academy. Good vote of confidence for the academy pipelines there... and at a time when the reserve team midfield stocks are chock-full. Check out the U20 World Cup squad and you’ll see Dan McKay and Fin Conchie. Jackson Manuel, who already has some ALM experience from the season before last, is currently on loan at Western Springs and is in that U20s squad too. Plus Charlie Beale was unlucky to miss the final 21-man cut. Four options to consider right there.

Losing both Lewis and Ugarkovic had many pondering an import midfielder to pick up the slack. Instead it looks like Alex Rufer will be leading a band of merry youths – a huge gamble/show-of-faith from the Chief straight off the bat. Happy with what he’s got there, the focus has instead shifted towards central defence. Specifically an experienced defender who can complement the fellas already on board. Chiefy gave us a few hints in that area too, listing Scott Wootton, Tim Payne, Sam Sutton, and Finn Surman as the current lads and saying that whomever he adds to that group should have certain aspects that those guys don’t. The off-the-cuff examples that he listed were: explosiveness, leadership, 1v1 defending, and heading. As well as the prerequisite that they “add value to the culture”.

This was a defensive unit that conceded some very soft goals throughout the last campaign despite seemingly having a pretty sturdy line-up. Scott Wootton didn’t really do it as a CB leader in the way that Steven Taylor had before him. The youthful fullbacks were an occasional liability – particularly in that finals game. With Oli Sail unable to provide the same heroic consistency as he had the year before it was hard to shake the idea that this team lacked a bit of the ol’ mongrel. That they couldn’t always do it on a soggy Sydney arvo. That pressure tended to get the best of them. Insert a strong personality, with import level defensive skills, whilst sliding Tim Payne’s reliability out wide (and also therefore into a position which gives him more chance of consistently cracking the national team, just sayin’) and all of a sudden the defence should be much grittier and more resilient.

Which they’re going to need with a goalkeeping change on the cards. Oli Sail is goneskees to Perth so they’ll automatically have to sign another goalie. It’s just a matter of whether they bring in a new number one or if they back Alex Paulsen (who’ll be 21yo when the Nix next play) to make the jump from back-up to starter so soon. Sail has given Paulsen his vote of approval. The chap’s still raw but he’s also, if you trust the opinion of yours truly, one of the very best goalkeeping prospects this country has produced in a long time. Definitely the best that the WeeNix have brought through to this date. This dude was immense at National League level as a teenager...

The word from the coach is that they plan on bringing in a keeper to challenge Paulsen. Someone of a similar standard to drive a competition for the starter’s gloves through preseason and beyond. He didn’t rule out promoting that guy from within (Alby Kelly-Heald is the third-choice GK for the U20s at the moment, he’s the best shout although he’s not really on a level with Paulsen at this stage). There are a few good young keepers across the National League realms. Former Nix GK Stefan Marinovic is also a current free agent... albeit a regular international probably won’t want to sign up for a glovesman’s duel against a 21 year old.

Remember they can’t bring in an import if they’re using the last spot on a CB so Paulsen’s rival will need to be a Kiwi/Aussie. Can’t speak to the Australian talent pool... but as far as kiwi keepers go Michael Woud might be able to negotiate a release from Japan given how they literally never use him. Max Crocombe is in a good place at Grimsby Town but it hasn’t yet been announced whether he’s signed the new deal they’ve offered him. Same deal with former Nix prospect Zac Jones, though surely he’ll want to stay in Wales for Haverfordwest for the Europa Conference League qualifiers he helped them get to.

Thus we arrive at the Problem Area. The ALW team had trouble creating good enough chances – outside of Milly Clegg slicing in and shooting or Michaela Foster’s corner kicks – which is why they didn’t score enough goals. The ALM team could’ve done with some more firepower for sure but the main issue was conversion. Oskar Zawada excluded (and also Ben Waine while he was there)... they sucked at finishing.

Wellington Phoenix Goals vs Individual xG (2022-23 Season)

Praise be to He, Oskar Zawada remains contracted for another season. Both he and Bozhidar Kraev signed two-year deals, while David Ball and Scott Wootton have even longer term contracts. That’s a bit sketchy considering how drastically Ball’s production plummeted in 2022-23 while Wootton didn’t quite reach import defensive leader levels. But at least Zawada is sticking around... not that anything is guaranteed in the wild world of professional football.

Chiefy’s point about putting players in the best position to succeed counts for heaps in these attacking areas. David Ball and Kosta Barbarouses have many positive attributes but alas their faults are far too similar, making it tough to have them both on the pitch at the same time (oh the goals that went begging between the two of them). But maybe if Kosta plays as a genuine winger or Ball as a number ten or... dunno, those puzzles are for the gaffer to figure out. One intriguing idea is what Kraev would look like playing centrally rather than wide left. We’ll know more when we learn what the formation will be.

Lots of water to go under the bridge yet. As things stand there are 14 players contracted for next season and we can safely assume that there’ll be a goalkeeper, an import central defender, and an academy midfielder added to that... leaving them at least a couple more spots to fill. They’ll likely want another fullback or two given the departures of Elliot and Mauragis. Yan Sasse will need replacing in non-import fashion which could be tricky. A Ben Waine alternative wouldn’t go astray either. We shall see.

What we can definitely trust is that Giancarlo Italiano has a plan. It’s a plan which differs from his mentor Uffie but that may be exactly what the team needs right now. Despite his massive overall impact, Talay didn’t exactly leave at the team’s peak and a timely refresh will also allow Italiano to differentiate himself from his predecessor. When an assistant gets the boost into their old boss’s boots you kinda expect things to stay the same... but evolution is coming for the Wellington Phoenix fellas and with each new signing that they make that fresh vision should become clearer. Exciting times.

Get amongst the TNC Patreon whanau if you rate the reads and want to support our work

Also whack an ad, sign up to our banger Substack newsletter, and tell your mates about us

Keep cool but care